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Russian Federation618 Posts
On October 08 2022 22:02 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Some are saying that it wasn't Ukraine but in a FSB inside job that struck the bridge, implying that there is a civil war going on inside Russia's intel agencies without Putin's knowledge.
Ukraine Post announced new post mark with image of the destroyed bridge in just 5 hours after the explosion.
https://t.me/uniannet/75145
Seems that they knew in advance about it.
On October 08 2022 22:07 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2022 20:55 Ardias wrote:
4) There is literally a video of exploding truck that I've posted.
Maybe you have better vision or something, all I see is a flash
Flash on the roadway with sparks falling from above. Not from below the bridge.
Plus truck completely disappeared after the flash, seems like it was torn to shreds with the force of explosion.
Car movement through the bridge has been opened, through the lane that wasn't damaged (not as severely damaged, to be exact)
https://www.fontanka.ru/2022/10/08/71720537/
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Haha, sure, they informed Ukraine Post about their operation. xD Or, which is more likely, Ukrainians were expecting the bridge to go down eventually, and prepared a post mark for the occasion.
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I can't open the m24.ru link
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Those guards who were responsible for inspecting the truck are going to have a bad day...
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Russia has stated they don't know when traffic will be restored, all trains canceled. How Russia defines safe is the big guess as that fire burned for several hours, and is still smoldering. That and they still have to get the wreckage out of the way.
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Russian Federation618 Posts
On October 08 2022 22:30 Sent. wrote:
I can't open the m24.ru link
Changed it to another one, but it's all over our news anyway.
On October 08 2022 22:29 maybenexttime wrote:
Haha, sure, they informed Ukraine Post about their operation. xD Or, which is more likely, Ukrainians were expecting the bridge to go down eventually, and prepared a post mark for the occasion.
Agree, it could be so as well. I may be wrong about "knowing in advance", but the speed of announcement of this postmark (bear in mind, it's Saturday morning) is saying a lot.
On October 08 2022 22:14 plasmidghost wrote:
Still waiting on a clearer picture of what happened, but apparently there's a major internal power struggle going on in Russia right now. I think that Russia loses Crimea by the end of the year 100%
The notion of "that truck came from Russia, hence it's Russians who blew their own bridge" (though also he confirms the version about the truck being source of explosion) doesn't stand for much, since SBU is actively working within Russia, recruiting people who are opposed to the war/Putin as well as people who are willing to do crime for money anyway (like those who get into the drug delivery buisiness, very common crime in Russia).
As for the power struggle - if it exists (don't get me wrong, it could very well be, there are a lot of hints to that), the question is, who will end up in power. Of course Ukraine and the West would hope that some kind of democratic opposition, or at least oligarchs who are losing money from the war, would win it. But MoD, FSB and Kremlin are facing a lot of critique for the inefectivness of AFRF in the war and indecisiveness and cover-ups for failures from the government. So there could very well be hardliners who would come up on top and declare total war until victory is achieved. Only time will tell though.
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On October 08 2022 22:45 Ardias wrote:Changed it to another one, but it's all over our news anyway. Show nested quote +On October 08 2022 22:29 maybenexttime wrote:
Haha, sure, they informed Ukraine Post about their operation. xD Or, which is more likely, Ukrainians were expecting the bridge to go down eventually, and prepared a post mark for the occasion. Agree, it could be so as well. I may be wrong about "knowing in advance", but the speed of announcement of this postmark (bear in mind, it's Saturday morning) is saying a lot. The notion of "that truck came from Russia, hence it's Russians who blew their own bridge" (though also he confirms the version about the truck being source of explosion) doesn't stand for much, since SBU is actively working within Russia, recruiting people who are opposed to the war/Putin as well as people who are willing to do crime for money anyway (like those who get into the drug delivery buisiness, very common crime in Russia). As for the power struggle - if it exists (don't get me wrong, it could very well be, there are a lot of hints to that), the question is, who will end up in power. Of course Ukraine and the West would hope that some kind of democratic opposition, or at least oligarchs who are losing money from the war, would win it. But MoD, FSB and Kremlin are facing a lot of critique for the inefectivness of AFRF in the war and indecisiveness and cover-ups for failures from the government. So there could very well be hardliners who would come up on top and declare total war until victory is achieved. Only time will tell though.
So, if we assume that internal power struggle, that also throws a new interesting light on the Northstream explosions. Not sure if that is what is going on, but it would give some better explanations for a very weird thing.
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The upper surface of that collapsed section of bridge looks remarkably undamaged from a huge explosion that apparently happened on top of it. Anyway if Russian media says its an exploding truck, it likely was anything but an exploding truck.
Ive got beers ready for when they are gonna try to sent a train over it later tonight. With that much fire damage there may be enough structural damage from heatexposure that it might collapse. Hopefully it does.
Who's a good boy:
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From the video of the explosion and some other conjecture from random people, the truck idea seems maybe doubtful. There's some evidence suggesting it was an explosive boat or something closer to the water. Ironically, the part completed by Russia was built lower on purpose to hinder larger cargo ships from accessing Ukraine via the Sea of Azov.
On October 08 2022 23:13 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2022 22:45 Ardias wrote:On October 08 2022 22:30 Sent. wrote:
I can't open the m24.ru link Changed it to another one, but it's all over our news anyway. On October 08 2022 22:29 maybenexttime wrote:
Haha, sure, they informed Ukraine Post about their operation. xD Or, which is more likely, Ukrainians were expecting the bridge to go down eventually, and prepared a post mark for the occasion. Agree, it could be so as well. I may be wrong about "knowing in advance", but the speed of announcement of this postmark (bear in mind, it's Saturday morning) is saying a lot. The notion of "that truck came from Russia, hence it's Russians who blew their own bridge" (though also he confirms the version about the truck being source of explosion) doesn't stand for much, since SBU is actively working within Russia, recruiting people who are opposed to the war/Putin as well as people who are willing to do crime for money anyway (like those who get into the drug delivery buisiness, very common crime in Russia). As for the power struggle - if it exists (don't get me wrong, it could very well be, there are a lot of hints to that), the question is, who will end up in power. Of course Ukraine and the West would hope that some kind of democratic opposition, or at least oligarchs who are losing money from the war, would win it. But MoD, FSB and Kremlin are facing a lot of critique for the inefectivness of AFRF in the war and indecisiveness and cover-ups for failures from the government. So there could very well be hardliners who would come up on top and declare total war until victory is achieved. Only time will tell though. Pretty sure the hardliners alao know that total war is not winnable. It will only go worse if they open it up to actual nato forces and their newest equiptment instead of just sending the older stuff to UA. Its just posturing to get attention which they xan leverage for power and money because it sounds "tough and cool".
The hardliners are going down with the boat, there's no surrender. The framing of the war makes it impossible for that to happen.
Which is unfortunate since the inability to force an unconditional surrender creates the potential of a post World War I Germany or Italy situation.
The reporting from the Russian I work with tells me that TV is a little more patriotic than usual but its incredibly easy to not watch a single thing regarding the situation of the war, which is the type of thing that gets a population believing that someone sold out the Russians. This is inline with the tiretapped mobile conversations that show mothers frequently being shocked their sons tell them the Russian military is treating them like shit, they're starving out in the field and were forced to murder random Ukrainians out of desperation.
On October 08 2022 23:51 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2022 22:45 Ardias wrote:On October 08 2022 22:30 Sent. wrote:
I can't open the m24.ru link Changed it to another one, but it's all over our news anyway. On October 08 2022 22:29 maybenexttime wrote:
Haha, sure, they informed Ukraine Post about their operation. xD Or, which is more likely, Ukrainians were expecting the bridge to go down eventually, and prepared a post mark for the occasion. Agree, it could be so as well. I may be wrong about "knowing in advance", but the speed of announcement of this postmark (bear in mind, it's Saturday morning) is saying a lot. The notion of "that truck came from Russia, hence it's Russians who blew their own bridge" (though also he confirms the version about the truck being source of explosion) doesn't stand for much, since SBU is actively working within Russia, recruiting people who are opposed to the war/Putin as well as people who are willing to do crime for money anyway (like those who get into the drug delivery buisiness, very common crime in Russia). As for the power struggle - if it exists (don't get me wrong, it could very well be, there are a lot of hints to that), the question is, who will end up in power. Of course Ukraine and the West would hope that some kind of democratic opposition, or at least oligarchs who are losing money from the war, would win it. But MoD, FSB and Kremlin are facing a lot of critique for the inefectivness of AFRF in the war and indecisiveness and cover-ups for failures from the government. So there could very well be hardliners who would come up on top and declare total war until victory is achieved. Only time will tell though. So, if we assume that internal power struggle, that also throws a new interesting light on the Northstream explosions. Not sure if that is what is going on, but it would give some better explanations for a very weird thing.
Like I said earlier in the thread, the whole idea that the US did it is ridiculous for exactly that reason. There's clear internal conflict, clear signs of internal sabotage, and a lot of benefit to sabotage your own nation to push certain people out of power, but no one really knows what exactly is happening.
For instance we know Wagner have been bashing their head against a brick wall and might actually be succeeding now. But their success is questionable because the ground they are gaining is pretty pointless from a military point of view. But if we are looking at it from the point of view of a power struggle, Prigozhin gets to say that he gained ground while Shoigu is about to lose the entire south.
For what it is worth, I think the bridge explosion was from Ukraine. But I wouldn't discount that people might have turned a blind eye to suspicious activity, considering the importance of this bridge and the amount of security Russian claims to have installed around the area ranging from internal cargo scanners to dolphins.
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United States43989 Posts
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I mean, they did and they didn’t, right? I seem to recall popular reaction to their disastrous campaigns in WW1 are one of the often-cited causes of fascism in Italy pre-WW2? Technically being on the winning side doesn’t mean they came out of it in a good position.
Edit: not to say “hardline refusal to surrender” was the issue, which I suppose is what you’re responding to.
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They were technically on the winning side sure. But winners of the war they were not. No one took them seriously after the war, the allies had no interest in entertaining their territorial claims especially since they had to commit troops to help their useless asses.
Italy would have gotten more from the war if they had just accepted Austria's initial desperate peace offering done to prevent the initial invasion, as Austria had no business fighting another front. Except Italy's machismo and Luigi Cadorna's military strategy of sending human waves gave them hundreds of thousands of dead men and little control over Rijeka and Dalmatia.
The anger and the Italian population desperately trying to find reason in the spilling of blood cemented Italy's fascism. Just like the Germans in World War I, the population felt betrayed by the world at large rather than accept the truth that they entered a war under shitty pretenses, did a shitty job at fighting that war and got beat.
Edit: I get what you have issue with, the inability to force the population to see the light is still the problem here. Just letting this shit simmer within Russia is just going to result in continuous bullshit down the line for Ukraine if they even get out of this war in one piece.
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Putin has done another reshuffle of the command structure in Ukraine. This time an Air Force General is in overall command, of a situation that is mostly a ground war.
MOSCOW, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Russia's Defence Ministry on Saturday named Air Force General Sergei Surovikin as the overall commander of Russian forces fighting in Ukraine, Moscow's third senior military appointment in the space of a week.
The change follows the reported sacking earlier this week of the commanders of two of Russia's five military regions, as its forces have suffered a series of dramatic reverses in northeastern and southern Ukraine in recent weeks.
The ministry did not say who, if anyone, Surovikin was replacing.
British military intelligence said in April that General Alexander Dvornikov had been appointed to take charge of Russian forces in Ukraine, almost two months after Moscow began what it calls its "special military operation", in an attempt to "centralise command and control".
However, Moscow itself has not specified that anyone is in overall military command of the operation.
Surovikin, 55, has led Russia's Air and Space Forces since 2017. According to the ministry's website, he commanded a guards division stationed in Chechnya in 2004, during Moscow's war against Islamist rebels, and was awarded a medal for his service in Syria in 2017.
Source
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It seems that the Kerch bridge is mostly unusable. One lane is open for cars only. One-way traffic is probably the only reasonable option. I doubt any heavy vehicles or large amount of vehicles can be allowed on it.
This effectively puts the bridge out of service for the most part for the rest of the war. Huge win for Ukraine.
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On October 09 2022 10:48 Magic Powers wrote:
It seems that the Kerch bridge is mostly unusable. One lane is open for cars only. One-way traffic is probably the only reasonable option. I doubt any heavy vehicles or large amount of vehicles can be allowed on it.
This effectively puts the bridge out of service for the most part for the rest of the war. Huge win for Ukraine.
Is the same true for the rails? One working? That is the more important one when it comes to the war effort. When it comes to the political situation it might be different of course.
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On October 09 2022 11:11 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 09 2022 10:48 Magic Powers wrote:
It seems that the Kerch bridge is mostly unusable. One lane is open for cars only. One-way traffic is probably the only reasonable option. I doubt any heavy vehicles or large amount of vehicles can be allowed on it.
This effectively puts the bridge out of service for the most part for the rest of the war. Huge win for Ukraine. Is the same true for the rails? One working? That is the more important one when it comes to the war effort. When it comes to the political situation it might be different of course.
Russia initially tried to downplay the situation, but it looks like the rail bridge has to stay closed. For how long I don't know.
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Inspecting the cement structures post-fire may shut down the railway until they can either be shored up or repaired. Trains carrying ammo are HEAVY and vibrate A LOT. The heat from the fuel fire may have made the supports too brittle to support rail traffic. It would only take a tiny bit to fall off or crack before they cascade into the water.
Thats why it was such a big deal that there was a train carrying fuel tanks there when the explosion happened. There also wasn't a fire response that I could see at all. The secondary damage from the blast was as bad if not much much worse than the first explosion.
They'll probably be able to use the road portion to transport military needs. But that was the only rail connection to the entire southern front. If if isn't able to be used its not just Kherson that is unviable its everything west of Melitopol that they need to start evacuating from now. Taking the Kerch bridge down is the thing that will make taking Crimea viable. Could they use trucks to get over the bridge and load onto trains in crimea? If they had palletized logistics they could probably yeah between ferrys and trucks over the section thats up they could go some way to replace the throughput. Russia doesn't have the pallet yet and would have to hand unload, hand reload off of train cars onto trucks and then again. thats not going to cut it with ammunition needs for artillery.
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If Russia doesn't resort to nuclear bombs, this will be bigger humiliation for them than the end of USSR. After all, it was due to "humiliation" from Putin's point of view that he started this war. Because he wanted Russia to be a great power. So, if no nukes, Russia will simply lose this war and will be much worse off.
Also, cracks start to show and some of Russian officials see that the emperor (tsar) has no clothes. It's about time that more open criticism started. I mean, there is already some but I believe there would be more.
Russia and its army are rotten with corruption, incompetence, too much propaganda (they overestimated themselves) so they believe they could win no matter what. Well, you can't fight against NATO's weapons so inefficiently. :D
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Germany to transfer Tanks to Ukraine but from Greece and Slovakia. Ice starting to Crack? Who knows. But it seems this detail was left out till the last moment. I guess because said countries are meant to get new Tanks from somewhere else.
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EPT
