EPTRusso-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 240
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Vinekh
128 Posts
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BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
On September 26 2022 02:32 Gorsameth wrote: I can get not wanting to send long range missiles. No one wants the image of a NATO missile sticking out of a hole in the Kremlin. But there is no danger of a Ukraine tank battalion rolling towards Moscow in NATO tanks. Not really sure personally, but maybe tanks is a red line that they don't plan on pushing through irrespective of what other weapons they have given? A lot of countries will do what they feel is beneficial for them in the end, and for Scholz, perhaps he feels like Germany has done enough and would rather not add tanks into the mix? As mentioned, I think he is likely looking far off into the future when the war concludes, and perhaps he wants to balance things out (some response, but not a full-out one) so he is trying to somewhat appease both sides? | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5440 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9104 Posts
A - Maybe they think the greedy Americans want them to bear an unproportional cost of the war. The US isn't sending their Abrams, so why should much smaller Germany send their Leopards? B - Maybe they think the German military is currently so weak it's not in position to give anything to Ukraine. This is somewhat egoistic, but at least I can call that rational. C - Orrr maybe it's the messed up Franco-German peacemaker mentality. Perhaps they want to score points for deescalating things and arranging a peace deal even though there's clearly an evil and a good side here? I want to know what's the French government real stance on this issue. So far I thought Germany gets a disproportionate amount of hate, but I keep seeing "Germany bad" articles in English every week and nothing about other Western European countries. It's hard to believe Scholz is somehow a lone man in the way of Western unity. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
Ukraine has also received NATO grade air defense systems. | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria3709 Posts
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/25/world/russia-ukraine-putin-news Sauli Niinistö, the Finnish president and head of state, says that Putin is "all-in" and it's "very difficult to see him accepting any kind of defeat". Also, at the moment he "doesn't very much see the possibility to reach peace". He also says he supports Scholz and Macron in their peace-seeking approach. But I think that last part is him playing all sides, considering he contradicts Scholz's stance in almost the same breath. Macron is more realistic, looking for peace while also fully supporting Ukraine since before the war, i.e. - to use a chess analogy - playing the whole board and not just his preferred squares. | ||
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pmp10
3244 Posts
On September 26 2022 06:19 Sent. wrote: I have no idea what German's government true reasons are but I don't believe whatever reasons they're giving now. There is no big mystery here, they want the Russian gas back for their economy as soon as possible. From Sholtz's perspective the sooner Ukraine folds the better, naturally he will stall and sabotage aid to that end. | ||
zatic
Zurich15313 Posts
On September 26 2022 14:21 pmp10 wrote: There is no big mystery here, they want the Russian gas back for their economy as soon as possible. From Sholtz's perspective the sooner Ukraine folds the better, naturally he will stall and sabotage aid to that end. This is clearly not the case. If anything you could argue that Germany, with it's massive support to Ukraine but continuous stalling one singular issues, is prolonging the war. But this too would run counter the absurd argument that they want Russia to win. Scholz' hesitance on the delivery of tanks is baffling within Germany too. He has yet to state a clear and understandable reason for why. My personal interpretation is two fold: 1. He truly is scared of pulling Germany and NATO into a shooting war with Russia. He has cited before that he means to do everything to prevent becoming another Wilhelm II. He hasn't explained why tanks and IFVs are now the line that would bring Germany into war with Russia. But he has from the beginning stressed his worry that further military support will draw NATO into war with Russia and ultimately would mean thermonuclear annihilation. Tragically, it looks like by seeking to not become another Whilhelm II, Scholz is on track to becoming another Chamberlain. Still, true fear of war with Russia could be one of the reasons for his reluctance and stalling. 2. He draws the line at tanks for domestic reasons. Germans have a sort of mystical connection to the weapon tank, or rather the Panzer. There are obvious historical reasons for that. Past German military might and aggression was always intimately linked to the picture of a Panzer rolling over European borders. The connection is ambivalent: At the same time, Germans carry pride at Germany building the best tanks in the world. To Germans, it isn't really war until tanks are rolling. Delivery of artillery, small arms, even fighter aircraft are all easier to swallow for a German peacenik than the picture of a German Panzer firing in anger. We have seen the recent survey that a majority of Germans is against delivery of tanks to Ukraine. This is after the majority continuously supported further military support to Ukraine for 7 months straight. And I am certain that most Germans would be - just like their chancellor - at a loss if they had to explain why now they are against sending Panzers. The reason is that it can't be rationally explained. The connection to the Panzer in Germany is an emotional one. | ||
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plasmidghost
Belgium16168 Posts
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On September 26 2022 07:32 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Ukraine has also received NATO grade air defense systems. https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1574085103877341185 Zelensky's press-secretary states that info about NASAMS already in Ukraine is misunderstanding. It was meant to say that agreement about their delivery is secured. https://gordonua.com/news/war/ukraina-poka-ne-poluchila-ot-ssha-zenitnye-kompleksy-nasams-presssekretar-zelenskogo-1627980.html | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On September 26 2022 16:44 plasmidghost wrote: This is downright insane. All these Russians are being fed into the meat grinder and I don't see how this has any other effect than completely destroying what little morale the Russian military has and crippling their economy for decades + Show Spoiler + https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1574170287406567428 Yeah, that's basically what Rainer Saks writes today as well. Alongside some advances near Lyman, and about the successful deployment of Iranian drones by the Russians. There were no major changes in the situation on the front yesterday. Ukraine's offensive in the north continues. In the south, Ukraine has increased its pressure, although it is not possible to detect major changes on the front line yet. Russia is trying to keep up the offensive in Donbas and is focused on organizing drone attacks. An artillery duel continues all the time in the liberated areas of Sumy and Kharkiv regions along the entire Russian/Ukrainian border. It happens with fluctuating intensity every day, and that's why I won't write about it separately. No major forces have been gathered here for the purpose of re-invasion, Russia simply does not have reserves. In the near future, provocations organized by Russian special forces are expected on the Ukraine/Belarus border. It is unlikely that Russia will succeed in dragging the Belarusian ground forces into a war, but it can stage an escalation with the aim of distracting the attention of the Ukrainian military command and tying up Ukrainian reserves. - The advance of Ukrainian troops in the Lyman region has continued every day. The Oskil River has been crossed eastward at several points, but we cannot yet speak of a complete crushing of the Russian forces. The actions of Ukrainians are also not favored by continuous rains. Also in the immediate vicinity of the city of Lyman, Ukrainian troops have advanced around the city. Ukrainian troops are preventing entry into the city. On the order of the Russian president, the punishments for voluntarily surrendering and essentially for retreating without an order were increased. It is clear that the Commander-in-Chief has forbidden retreating at any point without his personal permission, and so there are rumors that Russian troops are also forbidden to retreat from the city of Lyman (and other settlements on the front). In addition, there are credible reports that some of those mobilized in Russia will be immediately sent to the front, as a result of which reinforcements to the forces here is also expected. There are also rumors about military convoys moving towards Donbas and Lugansk, but only truck transports have been noticed in the visuals. In any case, the situation in the region is very critical for the Russian units, and if they are not even allowed to retreat tactically, the situation will certainly worsen. - In the direction of Severdonetsk/Lysychansk, Russian units attempted an unsuccessful counterattack. The Ukrainians have not moved forward much, but it can be seen that they are moving forward a little bit every day. - In the direction of Bakhmut, Russian units organized 5 offensive attempts, but all of them were unsuccessful. - Russian units also had several unsuccessful offensive attempts in southern Donbas. - On the southern front, Ukrainian artillery fire has a clear advantage and is concentrated at a point close to a couple of fronts. This could create an expectation in the Russian military command that an offensive is about to follow. - On the Kherson front, Ukrainian pressure continues to be strong and Russian losses remain high. Russian troops are trying to use Iranian drones to contain the offensive in Ukraine - the city of Odessa and its surroundings are mostly attacked. Tonight, a UA ammunition warehouse was hit, which exploded quite powerfully. The Russians last had such successful attacks during the first month of the war. In turn, the Ukrainians announced yesterday the receipt of new night defense complexes of the NASMAS type, which will significantly improve Ukraine's ability to repel missile attacks. However, you have to deal with drones in a different way. Fortunately, there are not many of these Iranian drones in Russia, and getting more of them is not easy. Regarding the ongoing mobilization in Russia, it can be said that it started with confusion. The pictures appearing on social media should not be overemphasized yet, but the fact that the Russian state apparatus is not really ready for mobilization has been confirmed. The next phase will show whether the gathered mass can be shaped into something. One can be sure that some of the mobilized will be taken directly to the front to supplement units that have suffered heavy losses, essentially without training. If conscripts demobilized in the spring and autumn can be gathered in this way, it may even provide a small relief. However, if groups of men are arbitrarily brought together, it tends to worsen the situation of those units that are already suffering at the front. Theoretically, one can imagine that it is easier to fight defensively than to attack. In practice, these men would not be able to function as a unit and would become an additional burden on the few remaining officers in terms of leadership. In addition, they arrive with two hands in their pockets, they do not bring new military equipment, and they are also unable to use the equipment that could still be in reserve in the front area. In addition, they would not be able to operate weapons systems, communication systems, etc. more complex than a handgun. Moreover, we know that along the entire front there is a system of trenches and fortifications to a very small extent. Most of the front lines are under-resourced and must be operated as mobile units. The mobilized are undoubtedly not capable of this. In summary - the larger the number of quickly mobilized people are sent to the front, the easier it will be for the Ukrainians. But it can be assumed that the majority of those mobilized are still trying to at least be trained into some kind of group-like unit." + Show Spoiler + Original: "Olukorras rindel eilse päeva jooksul väga suuri muudatusi ei toimunud. Ukraina pealetung põhjasunnal jätkub. Lõunas on Ukraina oma survet suurendanud, kuigi suuri muudatusi rindejoonel ei ole võimalik veel tuvastada. Venemaa üritab hoida üleval pealetungi Donbassis ja on keskendunud droonirünnakute korraldamisele. Kogu vene/Ukraina piiri ulatuses vabastatud Sumõ ja Harkivi oblasti aladel jätkub kogu aeg suurtükiduell. See toimub kõikuva intensiivsusega iga päev ja sellepärast ei hakka sellest eraldi kirjutama. Mingeid suuremaid vägesid siin uuesti sissetungi eesmärgil koondatud ei ole, Venemaal lihtsalt ei ole reserve. Lähiajal oodatakse vene erivägede korraldatud provokatsioone Ukraina/Valgevene piiril. Vaevalt küll õnnestub Venemaal Valgevene maavägedega sõtta tõmmata, küll aga saab etendada eskalatsiooni eesmärgiga hajutada Ukraina väejuhatuse tähelepanu ja siduda Ukraina reserve. - Lõmani piirkonnas Ukraina vägede edenemine on iga päev jätkunud. Oskili jõest on mitmes punktis edasi ida poole liigutud, kuid täielikust vene vägede purustamisest veel kõneleda ei saa. Ukrainlaste tegemisi ei soosi ka pidevalt kestnud vihmasajud. Ka Lõmani linna vahetus ümbruses on Ukraina väed linna ümber edasi liikunud. Linna sisenemist Ukraina väed väldivad. Venemaa presidendi korraldusel karmistati karistusi enda vabatahtliku vangiandmise ja sisuliselt ka ilma käsuta taganemise eest. On selge et ülemjuhataja on keelanud ilma tema isikliku loata kustahes punktis taganemise ja nii liiguvad jutud, et ka Lõmani linnast (ja teistest rindel asuvatest asulatest) on vene vägedel keelatud taanduda. Lisaks on päris usutavaid andmeid, et osa Venemaal mobiliseerituid suunatakse koheselt rindele, millest tulenevalt oodatakse täiendust ka siinsetele vägedele. Donbassi ja Luganski suunas liikuvatest militaarkonvoidest liigub samuti kuulujutte, kuid visuaalides on märgata olnud ainult veoautode transporti. Igal juhul on olukord piirkonnas vene üksuste jaoks väga kriitiline ning kui neil on isegi taktikaline taandumine keelatud, siis olukord halveneb kindlasti veelgi. - Severdonetski/Lõssõtšanski suunal üritasid vene üksused ühte edutut vasturünnakut. Ukrainlased suurelt edasi liikunud ei ole, kuid on näha, et nad iga päev õige pisut edasi nihkuvad. - Bahmuti suunal korraldasid vene üksused 5 pealetungi katset, aga kõik need olid ebaedukad. - Ka lõuna Donbassis oli vene üksustel mitu ebaedukat pealetungi katset. - Lõunarindel on Ukraina suurtükituli selges ülekaalus ning koondunud paari rinde lähedasse punkti. See võiks tekitada venemaa väejuhatuses ootuse, et järgnemas on pealetung. - Hersoni rindel on Ukraina surve jätkuvalt tugev ja vene kaotused püsivad kõrged. Vene väed üritavad Ukraina pealetungi ohjeldamiseks kasutada Iraani droone – rünnatakse valdavalt Odessa linna ja selle ümbrust. Täna öösel tabati Ukraina moonaladu, mis plahvatas päris võimsalt. Selliseid õnnestunud rünnakuid oli venelastel viimati sõja esimese kuu jooksul. Ukrainlased teatasid omakorda eile NASMAS tüüpi uute õhtutõrjekomplekside saamisest, mis parandab oluliselt Ukraina võimet tõrjuda raketirünnakuid. Droonide vastu tuleb aga teistmoodi hakkama saada. Õnneks neid Iraani droone väga palju Venemaal olla ei saa ning nende juurdegi hankimine ei ole kerge. Venemaal kulgeva mobilisatsiooni kohta võib öelda, et see on alanud segadustega. Sotsiaalmeedias ilmuvaid pilte ei tasu veel ületähtsustada, aga kinnitust on leidunud fakt, et mobilisatsiooniks ei ole vene riigiaparaat tegelikult valmis. Edasine näitab, kas kokkuaetud massi suudetakse ka millekski formeerima hakata. Võib olla kindel, et osa mobiliseerituid viiakse otse rindele, et täiendada suuri kaotusi kandnud üksuseid, sisuliselt väljaõpet andmata. Kui sellisel viisil suudetakse koondada kevadel ja nüüd sügisel demobiliseeritud ajateenijad, võib see isegi väikest leevendust pakkuda. Kui aga viiakse kohale suvaliselt kokku aegud meeste rühmad, siis see pigem halvendab nende üksuste olukorda, kes niigi rindel kannatavad. Teoreetiliselt võib ju ette kujutada, et kaitses on lihtsam sõdida, kui peale tungides. Praktikas ei suudaks need mehed üksusena toimida ning muutuvad vähestele alles jäänud ohvitseridele juhtimise mõttes täiendavaks koormaks. Lisaks saabuvad nad kaks kätt taskus, ei too kaasa uut sõjatehnikat ning ei suuda kasutada ka seda tehnikat, mis võiks rindepiirkonnas veel reservis olla. Lisaks ei suudaks nad opereerida käsitulirelvast keerulisemate relvasüsteemidega, sidesüsteemidega jne. Pealegi me teame, et kogu rinde ulatuses on väga väheses ulatuses tegemist kaevikute ja kindlustuste süsteemiga. Enamus rindejoone mehitamiseks ressursse ei jätku ja tuleb tegutseda liikuvate üksustena. Selleks ei ole mobiliseeritud kahtlemata võimelised. Kokkuvõttes – mida suuremas koguses niimoodi kiiresti mobiliseerituid rindele paistakse, seda lihtsam saab ukrainlastel olema. Aga võib arvata, et suurem osa mobiliseeritutest üritatakse ikkagi vähemasti mingiks rühmataoliseks üksuseks välja õpetada." Edit: Bonus thread about the Italian elections (in Finnish, apologies for possible mistakes in translation). - Right-wing Meloni won, comparatively, her party's social and economic policies cannot be called far-right, compared to (!sic) Finnish far-right. Black shirts won't start marching in Rome. Unlikely for much to change in Italy as a result. - Voting activity crashed down by 9%, especially in the south. The rich north supports the right, and the poor south doesn't vote or votes for the 5-star populists. - Salvini's Lega crashed, and was replaced by Meloni. The left's Letta of the PD party is also close to being done in politics. - Berlusconi has a surprising amount of influence in the coalition. + Meloni used to be one of his ministers. - While the right won, their support is below 50% so don't expect large conflicts. - A woman taking the PM spot in Italy is a major cultural change. + Show Spoiler + https://twitter.com/MontiAnton/status/1574283418589958144 | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
In addition, they arrive with two hands in their pockets, they do not bring new military equipment, and they are also unable to use the equipment that could still be in reserve in the front area. In addition, they would not be able to operate weapons systems, communication systems, etc. more complex than a handgun. I want to adress this specific part. 1) "Two hands in their pockets" is not exactly true. Yes, they don't bring weapons with them of course, but many, many of the mobilized buy clothing, sleeping bags, medkits, even bodyarmor themselves (some, who is able to afford more complex equipment themselves or with assistance get binos, thermal imagifiers, small quadcopters and stuff like that). Many people are aware that Army is unlikely to sufficiently provide these, so they come to the departure points as ready as possible. 2) "Unable to operate" is a stretch as well. There is a definition in every military ID - "military registry specialization" (rifleman, grenadier, tank driver, tank gunner, short-range radar operator etc., hundreds of them). These specializations are given based on what person in question did in his conscript/contract service. Since majority of the equipment in the last 10-15 years didn't change drastically, if, lets say, tank driver gets behind the tracks of T-72B3 - he knows how to drive it. My father was a tank commander in the Soviet Army back in 1985, and he said that if he would be put behind the gun or commander sight of the tank now (T-80BV in particular) - he'll be able to operate it again. Of course there would definetly be fuckups with assignment of people on the proper positions, plus some of the mobilized were not well trained during their previous sevice - but to say that they are all "unable to operate anything more complex than a handgun" is not correct. And yes, so far all of the reports of the mobilized troops that I hear states that they are sent at some training facilities for at least a month or two of the training (though quality of this training and the facilities themselves is drastically different everywhere). Edit: Also it is reported that in the last region, Kherson, the attendance to referendums is above 50%, so their results would be acknowledged. There is also an announcment that Putin would give a speech to the Federation Council (upper parliament), most likely to acknowledge the referendums and officially integrate those regions into Russia. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5440 Posts
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Magic Powers
Austria3709 Posts
On September 26 2022 17:47 maybenexttime wrote: There are videos of draft officers telling the draftees they will get two weeks of training. Quite likely that's what some will get. And it wouldn't surprise me if some do get sent to the front right away. On another note, I just watched a clip that I'm not gonna post of a Russian man shooting and apparently killing a military commissar during a draft, likely hoping to receive jail time for murder. In another clip the body is shown being carried out. In a third clip the alleged shooter is being held captive facing the camera, face blurred. Seems legit, and I think we can expect more of this kind of thing happening. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On September 26 2022 17:47 maybenexttime wrote: There are videos of draft officers telling the draftees they will get two weeks of training. Yes, I stand corrected here, after checking reports, in some it's said about two weeks. May depend on where exactly these troops would be sent. Seems to me that some of these troops would be send to already existing units to replace the losses, and some would be organized into the new ones. The latter may take longer, if the unit would be built up from scratch. On September 26 2022 17:58 Magic Powers wrote: Quite likely that's what some will get. And it wouldn't surprise me if some do get sent to the front right away. On another note, I just watched a clip that I'm not gonna post of a Russian man shooting and apparently killing a military commissar during a draft, likely hoping to receive jail time for murder. In another clip the body is shown being carried out. In a third clip the alleged shooter is being held captive facing the camera, face blurred. Seems legit, and I think we can expect more of this kind of thing happening. Yes, that happened, in the town of Ust'-Ilimsk, in Irkutsk region. Apparently the guy's best friend got drafted and he got very upset about that. | ||
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Deleted User 137586
7859 Posts
On September 26 2022 17:29 Ardias wrote: I want to adress this specific part. 1) "Two hands in their pockets" is not exactly true. Yes, they don't bring weapons with them of course, but many, many of the mobilized buy clothing, sleeping bags, medkits, even bodyarmor themselves (some, who is able to afford more complex equipment themselves or with assistance get binos, thermal imagifiers, small quadcopters and stuff like that). Many people are aware that Army is unlikely to sufficiently provide these, so they come to the departure points as ready as possible. 2) "Unable to operate" is a stretch as well. There is a definition in every military ID - "military registry specialization" (rifleman, grenadier, tank driver, tank gunner, short-range radar operator etc., hundreds of them). These specializations are given based on what person in question did in his conscript/contract service. Since majority of the equipment in the last 10-15 years didn't change drastically, if, lets say, tank driver gets behind the tracks of T-72B3 - he knows how to drive it. My father was a tank commander in the Soviet Army back in 1985, and he said that if he would be put behind the gun or commander sight of the tank now (T-80BV in particular) - he'll be able to operate it again. Of course there would definetly be fuckups with assignment of people on the proper positions, plus some of the mobilized were not well trained during their previous sevice - but to say that they are all "unable to operate anything more complex than a handgun" is not correct. And yes, so far all of the reports of the mobilized troops that I hear states that they are sent at some training facilities for at least a month or two of the training (though quality of this training and the facilities themselves is drastically different everywhere). Edit: Also it is reported that in the last region, Kherson, the attendance to referendums is above 50%, so their results would be acknowledged. There is also an announcment that Putin would give a speech to the Federation Council (upper parliament), most likely to acknowledge the referendums and officially integrate those regions into Russia. a) Don't rip a sentence out of the whole, especially if it's under a conditional, and then argue against it without it being conditional. b) The referenda are all just fake. The reports are fake. The voting is fake. None of them have any resemblance to free and fair elections. Don't talk about them using words like "attendance". It's just an excuse for annexation. | ||
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Ardias
Russian Federation605 Posts
On September 26 2022 18:07 Ghanburighan wrote: a) Don't rip a sentence out of the whole, especially if it's under a conditional, and then argue against it without it being conditional. b) The referenda are all just fake. The reports are fake. The voting is fake. None of them have any resemblance to free and fair elections. Don't talk about them using words like "attendance". It's just an excuse for annexation. a) I've read all the post and I didn't find anything written previously to the bolded statement that condradict the part that was quoted by me. If it was there, please point it out. b) Well, people do place check marks in the ballots there, that I know from the eyewitness. I'll refrain from discussion of willingness, scale and reasons for that. My point was in the reference to the previous discussion here about the possible results of the referenda, as well as to point out the possible date of incorporation of these regions into Russia. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5440 Posts
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Simberto
Germany11334 Posts
Do you really have any doubt that these referenda will deliver exactly the results that Putin wants? And that whatever these people mark on these ballots it utterly irrelevant to that point? | ||
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Magic Powers
Austria3709 Posts
On September 26 2022 18:07 Ardias wrote: Yes, I stand corrected here, after checking reports, in some it's said about two weeks. May depend on where exactly these troops would be sent. Seems to me that some of these troops would be send to already existing units to replace the losses, and some would be organized into the new ones. The latter may take longer, if the unit would be built up from scratch. Yes, that happened, in the town of Ust'-Ilimsk, in Irkutsk region. Apparently the guy's best friend got drafted and he got very upset about that. That's really far away. I guess Putin needs to send more propaganda out there, it's not working as intended. I also just read about a school shooting in Izhevsk, 5 dead. The shooter is reported to be a mobilized soldier wanting to evade service. He shot himself. Russia is spiralling out of control very, very fast. | ||
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