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On September 22 2022 05:06 KlaCkoN wrote: What do people here think would happen if Putin decides he is tired of the west sending heaps of free weapons and intel to Ukraine and decides to delete say Berlin or Warsaw from the map to make a point? Personally I dont believe for a second that either France or the UK would enter a nuclear war with Russia on their own no matter what any treaties say. Meaning it would come down to Biden and only Biden. No council, no votes, just an old man deciding whether to end the world because of principle or not. It's a somewhat dark thought I guess, but I honestly wonder if he would decide to sacrifice his grandchildren (and his country) to avenge a bunch of random germans.
NATO missiles would be flying before Russia finished fueling theirs. Once you hit the point of no return the best shot is to return fire immediately and in full force.
Noted mega genius Von Neumann wrote a lot about game theory with regard to MAD and it basically comes down to “if war seems possible then nukes are possible and if nukes are possible then the best option is to do a first strike and so you should first strike and they know you should first strike so they should definitely first strike before you first strike and so you know they’re going to immediately go to nukes so why haven’t you launched your nukes yet”.
The only hope is that everyone irrationally overlooks the obvious need to do a first strike and trusts that everyone else doesn’t want to kill millions. You can do the ethical irrational thing as long as you have a reasonable level of hope that everyone else does.
The moment Putin indicates that he’s willing to use nukes (and not just bullshitting) you’re on the game theory loop that you must use yours first. It doesn’t matter if he targets Berlin or Boston, it matters that he’s willing to use them. If he’s willing to use them you must first strike.
Mutually Assured Destruction is a Nash Equilibrium strategy, which you seem to lack understanding of. Retaliating to a limited nuclear strike with a total nuclear war would be completely devastating even to the countries not directly involved. Therefore this strategy is strongly dominated by almost any other responce - thus a strategic military doctrine based on a presumptive full-scale nuclear is simply not credible - so it wouldn't be able to keep anyone from trying. Luckily, there are more credible options for retaliating a limited nuke (like with another limited nuke), which for ~70 years has kept the world from annihilation
i.e. Biden could credibly chose to delete st Petersburg in return for Warsaw and dare Putin to continue? That's also what my FIL said when I raised this question a few months ago. It's believable enough I guess.Or at least I like the idea of not dying.
Pretty sure St Petersburg getting "deleted" would be enough nuclear fallout to make all the Baltic States and probably most of Poland, Sweden and Norway not-safe-places for the foreseeable future...
If this was a response to Warsaw or Berlin getting "deleted", then yeah, pretty much all of Northern Europe is getting irradiated.
Today's Rainer Saks update. Essentially saying that Putin gambled his regime with partial mobilization. Putin broke his promise to the Russians not to declare mobilization, so if this policy fails, it will lead to regime change. RU cannot hope for anything but stemming the tide with these troops until spring when any new units might be ready for a new offensive, and military failures will worsen the mood considerably in the medium term. One shouldn't expect near-term trouble for the regime as far as we know.
September 22 recap. The partial mobilization of the Russian army announced yesterday is undoubtedly an important change in the military campaign so far. For Ukraine, it does not change more than that they have to prepare for a longer war, but they had already taken that into account and started their preparations a long time ago. Ukraine continues to have at least a 5-month lead in the formation of reserve units. The population of Ukraine is large enough that Russia cannot form a significantly larger army than Ukraine. This is the case if the support of Western countries to Ukraine continues, or rather increases. For Russia, the biggest change is primarily in the following: - the Russian leadership has recognized the failure of its policy and army and has broken all the promises made at the beginning of the war. One of the main promises made by the Russian president was that there would be no mobilization. Thus, the Russian leadership has taken a very big political risk, which, in the event of a further campaign failure, will inevitably lead to a change in the Russian leadership. - if earlier Russian citizens could ignore the war in Ukraine, now it affects everyone in Russia. Thus, the Russian people begin to reshape their attitude towards this war. At the moment, it is difficult to predict what the public attitude will be in the short term, but in the long term (after the New Year) the attitude will definitely become more negative than it is now. - for the Russian army and other force structures, carrying out the mobilization means a proper stress test, because previously mobilization has not been dealt with at all. Although the Russian Minister of Defense said that up to 300,000 men will be recruited, it should not be considered either the upper limit or the lower limit, i.e. the final number. Initially, you can expect: -with the first move, smaller groups are quickly sent to the front to use them as rearguards. - secondly, smaller units (for example, the size of a company) are being prepared to supplement the units that suffered losses at the front. They also try to rotate units that have been at the front for a long time for a short rest. - Completely new units must also come from somewhere, but their preparation takes several months and they won't be sent to the front before the turn of the year. Arming and equipping the units is also a separate issue, which has been talked about a lot. Regarding the decision of the Russian government made public yesterday, it is also important that the contracts of the existing contract soldiers became indefinite and they no longer have the right to leave the service at the end of the contract. They tried to keep them locked up even now, but now there are no more legal problems. As a result, it is expected that the fighting ability of the Russian units that have been at the front until now will decrease even more. It is very important to note that the Russian authorities immediately started using violence and repression from the moment the mobilization was announced, which does not exactly leave a patriotic impression on the whole event. The manhunt that started immediately and the forced deportations to assembly points clearly show that Russian leadership does not have much faith in its people. The Russian army is unlikely to be able to mobilize these 300,000 men into a combat-capable army in the near future. A much smaller part can be brought into the fight. It will be possible to assess it more precisely in a few months, but right now it is safe to suggest that a new offensive will definitely not be possible before spring. You can be sure that it will not be possible to keep all the areas that RU currently holds. However, it is possible to fight defensive battles with the support of the mobilized. However, there is also a high probability that the mobilization will largely fail. At the moment, it does not make sense to expect a big storm of indignation and demonstrations in Russia. The current small demonstrations can be handled by the authorities (unless something very unexpected happens). in the current phase, Russian people are trying to avoid mobilization, including leaving the country. However, only a few can do the latter, as a foreign passport is required, which not many Russian citizens have (a common figure in the media is 3 million). The future largely depends on the course of the war - if things are not going too badly on the fronts, the nation can endure the situation for quite a long time. I would suggest that the mood of the people deteriorates little by little all the time and bigger problems will come after the New Year. Also important was the exchange of prisoners yesterday between Turkey and Saudi Arabia, including the release of some Azov fighters. Russia probably set up the shadow of the announcement of this mobilization in order not to show its weakness. For the leadership of Ukraine, this is an important achievement and strengthens their position in the country. The Izjum disaster certainly had a significant impact on this change. One can be sure that Ukraine was able to take several important prisoners there, which have been wisely kept silent. Soon after the end of the war, we will hear more about it. There were no very large movements on the fronts - In the direction of Lyman, Ukraine continues to quietly improve its positions, and the Russian side tried to prevent Ukraine's progress with an unsuccessful counterattack in the direction of Kupyansk - There is no information in the direction of Sverodonetsk/Lyssychansk, but we can be sure that the initiative remains in the hands of Ukraine - In the direction of Bakhmut, the activity of Russian units continues to decrease, although a couple of attack attempts were made - There was also a Russian attack south of the city of Donetsk - their strength has clearly waned here. - There are no changes on the southern front, but Russia is still trying to concentrate reserves in this area - In the Kherson region, Ukraine has focused artillery and air force strikes and their intensity has not decreased. Thus, the initiative is still in Ukraine's hands, and the counteroffensive continues.
Original: 22. septembri kokkuvõte. Eile väljakuulutatud osaline mobilisatsioon vene armeesse on kahtlemata oluline muutus senises sõjalises kampaanias. Ukraina jaoks ei muuda see rohkem, kui et tuleb valmistuda pikemaks sõjaks, aga nad olid sellega juba niigi arvestanud ja oma ettevalmistusi juba ammu alustanud. Ukrainal on jätkuvalt vähemalt 5 kuuline edumaa reservüksuste moodustamisel. Ukraina rahvaarv on piisavalt suur selleks, et venemaa ei suuda moodustada märgatavalt suuremat armeed, kui Ukraina. Seda juhul, kui lääneriikide toetus Ukrainale jätkub, õigemini kasvab. Venemaa jaoks on kõige suurem muutus eelkõige järgnevas: - venemaa juhtkond on tunnistanud oma poliitika ja armee läbikukkumist ja murdnud kõiki sõja alguses antud lubadusi. Üks peamine lubadus venemaa presidendi poolt oli, et mobilisatsiooni ei tule. Seega on venemaa juhtkond võtnud väga suure poliitilise riski, mis edasise kampaania läbikukkumise korral toob paratamatult kaasa ka venemaa juhtkonna vahetuse. - kui varasemalt võisid venemaa kodanikud ignoreerida sõda Ukrainas, siis nüüdsest puudutab see kõiki venemaal. Seega hakkavad venemaa inimesed oma suhtumist sellesse sõtta ümber kujundama. Hetkel on raske ennustada, milliseks kujuneb avalik suhtumine lühiajalises perspektiivis, kuid pikemas perspektiivis (peale aastavahetust) muutub suhtumine kindlasti negatiivsemaks, kui praegu. - vene armee ja teiste jõustruktuuride jaoks tähendab mobilisatsiooni läbiviimine korralikku stressitesti, sest varem ei ole mobilisatsiooniga sisuliselt üldse tegeletud. Kuigi venemaa kaitseminister ütles, et värvatakse kuni 300 000 meest, ei maksa seda pidada ei ülem, ega alampiiriks ehk siis lõplikuks arvuks. Esialgu võib eeldeda: -esimese hooga saadetakse kiiresti rindele väiksemad rühmad, et rakendada neid tagalateenistus. - teiseks valmistatakse ette väiksemaid üksuseid (näiteks roodu suuruseid), millega täiendataks rindel kaotusi kandnud üksuseid. Samuti üritatakse roteerida pikalt rindel olnud üksuseid lühikeseks puhkuseks. - Kusagilt peavad tulema ka täiesti uued üksused, aga nende ettevalmistamine võtab mitu kuud ja enne aastavahetust neid rindele saata ei kannata. Omaette küsimus on ka üksuste relvastamine ja varustamine, millest palju juttu olnud. Eile avalikstatud vene valitsuse otsuse puhul on oluline ka see, et seniste lepinguliste sõdurite lepingud muutusid tähtajatuks ning neil ei ole õigust enam teenistusest lepingu lõppedes lahkuda. Kinni üritati selliseid hoida ka praegu, aga nüüd ei ole enam juriidilisi probleeme. Eeldatavasti langeb seetõttu seni rindel olnud vene üksuste võitlusvõime veelgi. Väga oluline on märkida, et vene ametivõimud hakkasid kohe mobilisatsiooni välja kuulutamise hetkest kasutama vägivalda ja repressioone, mis ei jäta kogu üritusest just patriootlikku muljet. Koheselt alanud inimjaht ja sundtoomised kogunemispunktidesse näitavad selgelt, et venemaa juhktond ei usu oma rahvasse just palju. Venemaa armee ei suuda tõenäoliselt seda 300 000 meest lähiajal võitlusvõimeliseks armeeks mobiliseerida. Võitlusse suudetakse tuua palju väiksem osa. Mõne kuu jooksul saab seda täpsemalt hinnata, aga praegu julgeb pakkuda, et uut pealetungi enne kevadet kindlasti ei suudeta. Võib olla kindel, et ei suudeta hoida ka kõiki neid alasid, mida praegu veel kontrollitakse. Mobiliseeritute toel on võimalik aga pidada kaitselahinguid. Siiski on ka suur töenäosus, et mobilisatsioon suures osas ei õnnestu. Praegu veel ei ole mõtet eeldada venemaal suurt pahameeletormi ja meeleavaldusi. Praeguste väikeste meeleavaldustega saavad võimud toime (kui ei juhtu midagi väga ootamatut). venemaa inimesed üritavad praeguses faasis pigem mobilisatsioonist kõrvale hoida, seal hulgas riigist lahkukda . Seda viimast saavad teha siiski vähesed, kuna vaja on välispassi, mida vene kodanikel ei ole just arvukalt (levinud arv meedias on 3 milj). Edasine sõltub suuresti sõja käigust - kui rinnetel ei lähe väga halvasti, võib rahvas päris pikalt olukorda taluda. Pakuks, et rahva meeleolu halvaneb siiski pisitasa kogu aeg ja suuremad probleemid saabuvad peale aastavahetust. Oluline oli ka eile Türgi ja Saugi Araabia vahendusel toimunud vangide vahetus, sealhulgas osa Azovi võitlejate vabastamine. Venemaa ilmselt sättis selle mobilisatsiooni väljakuulutamise varju, et mitte oma nõrkust lasta välja paista. Ukraina juhtkonna jaoks on see oluline saavutus ja tugevadab nende positsiooni riigis. Izjumi katastroofil oli kindlasti sellele vahetuse toimumisele oluline mõju. Võib olla kindel, et Ukraina suutis võtta seal mitu olulist vangi, millest on targu vaikitud. Vahest peale sõja lõppu kuuleb sellest täpsemalt. Rinnetel väga suuri liikumisi ei olnud - Lõmani suunal Ukraina jätkab vaikselt oma positsioonide parandamist ja vene pool üritas Ukraina edenemist takistada ebaõnnestunud vasturünnkuga Kupjanski suunal - Sverodonetski/Lõssõtšanski suunal infot ei ole, aga võib olla kindel, et initsiatiiv püsib Ukraina käes - Bahmuti suunal on vene üksuste aktiivsus jätkuvalt languses, kuigi paar rünnakukatsest siiski tehti - Donetski linnast lõunas oli ka üks vene rünnakuüritus- nende jõud selgelt on siin raugenud. - Lõunarindel ei ole muudatusi, kuid venemaa üritab siia piirkonda veel reserve koondada - Hersoni piirkonnas on Ukraina keskendunud suurtükiväe ja lennuväe löökidele ning nende intensiisvsus ei ole langenud. Seega initsiatiiv on jätkuvalt Ukraina käes, ning vastupealetung jätkub.
Edit: P.S. Just a shower thought, with partial mobilization and closing the borders to eligible men (essentially everyone 18-65), Putin achieved the tertiary goal of the EU tourist visa ban many times more stringently: dissatisfied Russians can no longer just leave Russia and are now in direct conflict with the regime. P.P.S. It doesn't really matter whether we grant asylum to these people or not, as they cannot leave due to RU laws.
On September 22 2022 05:06 KlaCkoN wrote: What do people here think would happen if Putin decides he is tired of the west sending heaps of free weapons and intel to Ukraine and decides to delete say Berlin or Warsaw from the map to make a point? Personally I dont believe for a second that either France or the UK would enter a nuclear war with Russia on their own no matter what any treaties say. Meaning it would come down to Biden and only Biden. No council, no votes, just an old man deciding whether to end the world because of principle or not. It's a somewhat dark thought I guess, but I honestly wonder if he would decide to sacrifice his grandchildren (and his country) to avenge a bunch of random germans.
NATO missiles would be flying before Russia finished fueling theirs. Once you hit the point of no return the best shot is to return fire immediately and in full force.
Noted mega genius Von Neumann wrote a lot about game theory with regard to MAD and it basically comes down to “if war seems possible then nukes are possible and if nukes are possible then the best option is to do a first strike and so you should first strike and they know you should first strike so they should definitely first strike before you first strike and so you know they’re going to immediately go to nukes so why haven’t you launched your nukes yet”.
The only hope is that everyone irrationally overlooks the obvious need to do a first strike and trusts that everyone else doesn’t want to kill millions. You can do the ethical irrational thing as long as you have a reasonable level of hope that everyone else does.
The moment Putin indicates that he’s willing to use nukes (and not just bullshitting) you’re on the game theory loop that you must use yours first. It doesn’t matter if he targets Berlin or Boston, it matters that he’s willing to use them. If he’s willing to use them you must first strike.
Mutually Assured Destruction is a Nash Equilibrium strategy, which you seem to lack understanding of. Retaliating to a limited nuclear strike with a total nuclear war would be completely devastating even to the countries not directly involved. Therefore this strategy is strongly dominated by almost any other responce - thus a strategic military doctrine based on a presumptive full-scale nuclear is simply not credible - so it wouldn't be able to keep anyone from trying. Luckily, there are more credible options for retaliating a limited nuke (like with another limited nuke), which for ~70 years has kept the world from annihilation
i.e. Biden could credibly chose to delete st Petersburg in return for Warsaw and dare Putin to continue? That's also what my FIL said when I raised this question a few months ago. It's believable enough I guess.Or at least I like the idea of not dying.
Pretty sure St Petersburg getting "deleted" would be enough nuclear fallout to make all the Baltic States and probably most of Poland, Sweden and Norway not-safe-places for the foreseeable future...
If this was a response to Warsaw or Berlin getting "deleted", then yeah, pretty much all of Northern Europe is getting irradiated.
On September 22 2022 02:47 npnl19 wrote: I hope you guys, have good reasons to justify nazi insignia (but there is none), or maybe just blindly follow your news agenda. You know, life,s been great, except it sucks now for everyone who has to go to war, protecting people of Donbass, and thanx your western leaders for that. Expected more from SC community. Anyway. GLHF
I am confused - I don't think anyone here justifies the Z sign?
Ardias - could you share how the older people you know (your parents / grandparents / inlaws / etc) reacted to the news of mobilization? Are they surprised? Are they aware that its wording seems to indicate the 'partial' is only in the name?
My parents (and parents of my friends, whom I talked to) are worried of course. Had to explain to my folks that I'm far back in line to be drafted, though they are still worried, cause it's not clear how long this conflict will last, hence not clear how long the draft will be going. And I believe everyone was surprised about it, though, to be fair, it was clear that if Russia would want to continue the offensive, it would need much more troops. But Putin's words on SCO summit seemed to indicate that he is trying to arrange some kind of peace deal, so events of past few days came down as a big surprise.
Had a talk with my friends at a pub about this stuff yesterday, discussing what to do, how to prepare etc. Nobody is really eager to be drafted, but in the choice between prison or draft 5 of the 8 will choose the latter. I guess it's kinda how it worked in every country throughout XX century, who were drafting for their offensive wars.
Well, it depends. The choice is actually 1) staying in prison and be alive or 2) getting sent to Ukraine with possible lethal consequences. That is if war sticks to conventional tactics. Don't forget that US Lend-Lease is still not there, so there will be a lot more pain for Russian soldiers with more NATO weapons. Also, US military budget is so much higher than Russia's one that if Russia tries to play catchup, it will be USSR2 fate. Russia will simply collapse.
On September 22 2022 02:47 npnl19 wrote: I hope you guys, have good reasons to justify nazi insignia (but there is none), or maybe just blindly follow your news agenda. You know, life,s been great, except it sucks now for everyone who has to go to war, protecting people of Donbass, and thanx your western leaders for that. Expected more from SC community. Anyway. GLHF
I am confused - I don't think anyone here justifies the Z sign?
Ardias - could you share how the older people you know (your parents / grandparents / inlaws / etc) reacted to the news of mobilization? Are they surprised? Are they aware that its wording seems to indicate the 'partial' is only in the name?
My parents (and parents of my friends, whom I talked to) are worried of course. Had to explain to my folks that I'm far back in line to be drafted, though they are still worried, cause it's not clear how long this conflict will last, hence not clear how long the draft will be going. And I believe everyone was surprised about it, though, to be fair, it was clear that if Russia would want to continue the offensive, it would need much more troops. But Putin's words on SCO summit seemed to indicate that he is trying to arrange some kind of peace deal, so events of past few days came down as a big surprise.
Had a talk with my friends at a pub about this stuff yesterday, discussing what to do, how to prepare etc. Nobody is really eager to be drafted, but in the choice between prison or draft 5 of the 8 will choose the latter. I guess it's kinda how it worked in every country throughout XX century, who were drafting for their offensive wars.
Well, it depends. The choice is actually 1) staying in prison and be alive or 2) getting sent to Ukraine with possible lethal consequences. That is if war sticks to conventional tactics. Don't forget that US Lend-Lease is still not there, so there will be a lot more pain for Russian soldiers with more NATO weapons. Also, US military budget is so much higher than Russia's one that if Russia tries to play catchup, it will be USSR2 fate. Russia will simply collapse.
It's important to realize that if even 3/8 choose jail, that's over 100k people to jail (if we believe the official number). It's impossible to jail that many for practical reasons.
And those jailed for not agreeing to this mobilization would almost certainly be pardoned by the next regime, so it makes sense to choose jail, create a problem for the regime by doing so, and wait for regime change.
On September 22 2022 02:47 npnl19 wrote: I hope you guys, have good reasons to justify nazi insignia (but there is none), or maybe just blindly follow your news agenda. You know, life,s been great, except it sucks now for everyone who has to go to war, protecting people of Donbass, and thanx your western leaders for that. Expected more from SC community. Anyway. GLHF
I am confused - I don't think anyone here justifies the Z sign?
Ardias - could you share how the older people you know (your parents / grandparents / inlaws / etc) reacted to the news of mobilization? Are they surprised? Are they aware that its wording seems to indicate the 'partial' is only in the name?
My parents (and parents of my friends, whom I talked to) are worried of course. Had to explain to my folks that I'm far back in line to be drafted, though they are still worried, cause it's not clear how long this conflict will last, hence not clear how long the draft will be going. And I believe everyone was surprised about it, though, to be fair, it was clear that if Russia would want to continue the offensive, it would need much more troops. But Putin's words on SCO summit seemed to indicate that he is trying to arrange some kind of peace deal, so events of past few days came down as a big surprise.
Had a talk with my friends at a pub about this stuff yesterday, discussing what to do, how to prepare etc. Nobody is really eager to be drafted, but in the choice between prison or draft 5 of the 8 will choose the latter. I guess it's kinda how it worked in every country throughout XX century, who were drafting for their offensive wars.
Well, it depends. The choice is actually 1) staying in prison and be alive or 2) getting sent to Ukraine with possible lethal consequences. That is if war sticks to conventional tactics. Don't forget that US Lend-Lease is still not there, so there will be a lot more pain for Russian soldiers with more NATO weapons. Also, US military budget is so much higher than Russia's one that if Russia tries to play catchup, it will be USSR2 fate. Russia will simply collapse.
It's important to realize that if even 3/8 choose jail, that's over 100k people to jail (if we believe the official number). It's impossible to jail that many for practical reasons.
And those jailed for not agreeing to this mobilization would almost certainly be pardoned by the next regime, so it makes sense to choose jail, create a problem for the regime by doing so, and wait for regime change.
One core question is how healthy the jail would be for "traitors" and "cowards". Russian jail is pretty shitty to begin with afaik, and i wouldn't be surprised if significant portions of the people who choose jail end up dead or significantly hurt after a few years in the shittiest gulag Russia can come up with.
My choice would probably be "Go to Ukraine and surrender as quickly as possible to the first Ukrainian troops i can find", but that is not without risks, either. Or, of course, flee the country before they get me.
And why wouldn't Russia be able to jail 100k people? There are countries which much more people per capita in prison then Russia.
The only way forward for Russia is escalating the conflict.
Anex the occupied territorys to make them part of Russia. After which an attack on those territorys would be seen as an attack on Russia which could justify a nuclear response depending on how events unfold. They want this to be done for the winter i guess,in an attempt to secure the gains that have been made. Then after the winter reinforcements from the mobilization will be available,which would require an increase in western support to maintain the stalemate.
The anexation will act as a sort of red line that Ukraine can not cross without potentially triggering a severe response. It will still be pretty much a stalemate. It creates a difficult situation for Ukraine and the west. If they cant attack the anexed territorys then they can have no hope of ever gaining the upperhand while Russia can wait for the appropiate moment to make their attacks. And if they do attack then Russia gets the escalation they want and the argument they need (mostly internally) for a severe response.
@below:oh i did not see that ty for link. Isw is a reliable source in general so that is somewhat re-asuring.
The first strike argument only seems relevant if there is a (small) chance of a successful first strike resulting in 'winning'. But given submarines/2nd strike capabilities I dont think that's true? Meaning nuking someone with nukes is a guaranteed loss, but that doesnt mean that nuking someone _without_ nukes has to be a loss. You just need to convince yourself (or others) that it is not worth it to lose on principle just because a third party got nuked. All it would take for Putin to get away with it is Biden (and only Biden) believing that Putin would be willing to nuke Germany or Poland, but be too afraid of retaliation to nuke the USA.
Nuking a non-nuclear party is the dead end for non-nuclear world. This will effectualy end anti-nuclear stance of every single nation on earth, nuked nations inclueded. If Ukraine is nuked even on tactical level, Poland WILL arm herself with nuclear weapons and nobody, no amount of sanctions from UN, NOTHING will stop us short of direct military intervention. This is what many don't understand. Its a Pandora Box. Once you use nuke on non-nuclear state, all non-nuclear states will try to get their own nukes and nobody will stop them.
You think you can block plutonium or uranium from being possesed by even mildly industrialized country? Good luck trying that.
On September 22 2022 18:52 pmh wrote: The only way forward for Russia is escalating the conflict. I am surprised they have not done so already but maybe the leadership in Moscow is more divided then it apears to be.
Annex the occupied territory to make them part of Russia. After which an attack on those territories would be seen as an attack on Russia which could justify a nuclear response depending on how events unfold. They want this to be done for the winter i guess,in an attempt to secure the gains that have been made. Then after the winter reinforcements from the mobilization will be available,which would require an increase in western support to maintain the stalemate.
The annexation will act as a sort of red line that Ukraine can not cross without potentially triggering a severe response. It will still be pretty much a stalemate. It creates a difficult situation for Ukraine and the west. If they cant attack the anexed territorys then they can have no hope of ever gaining the upperhand while Russia can wait for the appropiate moment to make their attacks. And if they do attack then Russia gets the escalation they want and the argument they need (mostly internally) for a severe response. Its a sort of critical moment in the conflict,a potential transition into a different kind of conflict. It is also a critical moment for the leadership in Moscow.
A continuation of the stalemate (albeit with a higher intensity) is still the most likely outcome i think but the risk for further escalation is bigger then earlier this year. The change for a positive outcome for Ukraine and the west (which would be a regime change) might also have increased slightly though i do think the change for this is rather small in general. The conflict is becoming less predictable and more volatile,the range of realistic and possible outcomes has grown wider.
Hey, I have an excuse to cite the Study of War for once. They're essentially saying that a close reading of Putin's speech doesn't indicate a change in RU nuclear doctrine which would cover the annexed territories.
Putin emphatically did not say that the Russian nuclear umbrella would cover annexed areas of Ukraine nor did he tie mobilization to the annexation. He addressed partial mobilization, annexation referenda in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, and the possibility of nuclear war in his speech—but as separate topics rather than a coherent whole. The fact that he mentioned all three topics in a single speech was clearly meant to suggest a linkage, but he went out of his way to avoid making any such linkage explicit.
Putin framed his comments about the possibility of Russian nuclear weapons use in the context of supposed Western threats to use nuclear weapons against Russia. He claimed that Western officials were talking about “the possibility and permissibility of using weapons of mass destruction—nuclear weapons—against Russia.” He continued, “I wish to remind those who allow themselves such statements about Russia that our country also has various means of attack...” His comment on this topic concludes by noting that Russia would use all means at its disposal in response to a threat to “the territorial integrity of our country, for the defense of Russia and our people.” That comment could be interpreted as applying in advance to the soon-to-be annexed areas of occupied Ukraine, but its placement in the speech and context do not by any means make such an interpretation obvious. Nor is Putin’s language in making this comment different from formal Kremlin policy or from previous statements by Russian officials. Putin’s speech should not be read as an explicit threat that Russia would use nuclear weapons against Ukraine if Ukraine continues counter-offensives against occupied territories after annexation.
We kinda' knew this already, because UA attacks on Belgorod, which is in Russia, their troops crossing the border north of Kharkiv and attacks on Crimea haven't triggered a response of any kind.
Edit: Very handy thread summarizing a bunch of military analyst views on the medium term in UA.
On September 22 2022 02:47 npnl19 wrote: I hope you guys, have good reasons to justify nazi insignia (but there is none), or maybe just blindly follow your news agenda. You know, life,s been great, except it sucks now for everyone who has to go to war, protecting people of Donbass, and thanx your western leaders for that. Expected more from SC community. Anyway. GLHF
I am confused - I don't think anyone here justifies the Z sign?
Ardias - could you share how the older people you know (your parents / grandparents / inlaws / etc) reacted to the news of mobilization? Are they surprised? Are they aware that its wording seems to indicate the 'partial' is only in the name?
My parents (and parents of my friends, whom I talked to) are worried of course. Had to explain to my folks that I'm far back in line to be drafted, though they are still worried, cause it's not clear how long this conflict will last, hence not clear how long the draft will be going. And I believe everyone was surprised about it, though, to be fair, it was clear that if Russia would want to continue the offensive, it would need much more troops. But Putin's words on SCO summit seemed to indicate that he is trying to arrange some kind of peace deal, so events of past few days came down as a big surprise.
Had a talk with my friends at a pub about this stuff yesterday, discussing what to do, how to prepare etc. Nobody is really eager to be drafted, but in the choice between prison or draft 5 of the 8 will choose the latter. I guess it's kinda how it worked in every country throughout XX century, who were drafting for their offensive wars.
Well, it depends. The choice is actually 1) staying in prison and be alive or 2) getting sent to Ukraine with possible lethal consequences. That is if war sticks to conventional tactics. Don't forget that US Lend-Lease is still not there, so there will be a lot more pain for Russian soldiers with more NATO weapons. Also, US military budget is so much higher than Russia's one that if Russia tries to play catchup, it will be USSR2 fate. Russia will simply collapse.
It's important to realize that if even 3/8 choose jail, that's over 100k people to jail (if we believe the official number). It's impossible to jail that many for practical reasons.
And those jailed for not agreeing to this mobilization would almost certainly be pardoned by the next regime, so it makes sense to choose jail, create a problem for the regime by doing so, and wait for regime change.
One core question is how healthy the jail would be for "traitors" and "cowards". Russian jail is pretty shitty to begin with afaik, and i wouldn't be surprised if significant portions of the people who choose jail end up dead or significantly hurt after a few years in the shittiest gulag Russia can come up with.
My choice would probably be "Go to Ukraine and surrender as quickly as possible to the first Ukrainian troops i can find", but that is not without risks, either. Or, of course, flee the country before they get me.
And why wouldn't Russia be able to jail 100k people? There are countries which much more people per capita in prison then Russia.
Russian jail is something to absolutely avoid, if at all possible. Hence most people think that during the next weeks or months, those in threat of draft will try to leave the country or otherwise avoid it. But when push comes to shove, would you rather go to UA and dodge bombs (and your own superiors) to surrender or risk jail. I can see arguments for either side. The crucial question is whether you believe that there are enough like-minded thinkers who will make it practically impossible to jail you.
As for why they cannot jail 100k, well, they're jailing half a million right now. So, it's not about the number itself. But they didn't try to judge and incarcerate that many in a matter of months. And to deal with the societal upheaval this would create at the same time.
Russia would need to implement a gulag-lite system for its own citizens. I wouldn't dare try that in Putin's shoes, I don't know about you.
Ideally, I'd like to be pacifist but I'm more for democracy and justice than peace at all cost. So here is my wish list for this war: 1. Even stronger support for Ukraine: more military equipment, more training for Ukrainian soldiers, etc. 2. Maximum damage on Russian soldiers in the battlefield. Once losses start to mount, public unrest will grow and grow. 3. End of Putin's regime. At huge cost, but end of this evil regime nonetheless.
I'm sorry for all Russians who are sane and don't want this war. If they want to avoid #2, I think the best course of action is active sabotage and Maidan style protests. E.g. "oopsies" such as rendering factories inoperable even for a day or two, train delays, "random" events like that which do not lead to human losses but more like silent protest / making things difficult.
On September 22 2022 18:52 pmh wrote: The only way forward for Russia is escalating the conflict. I am surprised they have not done so already but maybe the leadership in Moscow is more divided then it apears to be.
Anex the occupied territorys to make them part of Russia. After which an attack on those territorys would be seen as an attack on Russia which could justify a nuclear response depending on how events unfold. They want this to be done for the winter i guess,in an attempt to secure the gains that have been made. Then after the winter reinforcements from the mobilization will be available,which would require an increase in western support to maintain the stalemate.
The anexation will act as a sort of red line that Ukraine can not cross without potentially triggering a severe response. It will still be pretty much a stalemate. It creates a difficult situation for Ukraine and the west. If they cant attack the anexed territorys then they can have no hope of ever gaining the upperhand while Russia can wait for the appropiate moment to make their attacks. And if they do attack then Russia gets the escalation they want and the argument they need (mostly internally) for a severe response. Its a sort of critical moment in the conflict,a potential transition into a different kind of conflict. It is also a critical moment for the leadership in Moscow.
A continuation of the stalemate (albeit with a higher intensity) is still the most likely outcome i think but the risk for further escalation is bigger then earlier this year. The change for a positive outcome for Ukraine and the west (which would be a regime change) might also have increased slightly though i do think the change for this is rather small in general. The conflict is becoming less predictable and more volatile,the range of realistic and possible outcomes has grown wider.
This is nonsense because nobody would accept that red line. You don't make red lines you can't enforce which means you have to keep them reasonable.
Let's say the US declares today that it views Ottawa as part of the United States and that any attempt by Canada to retain it will cross a nuclear red line. Everyone would be like "lolno" and the US would be either forced to nuke Canada or to humiliate itself by going back on its red line. And they're not going to nuke Canada.
You want to put your nuclear red lines as far forward as possible because they get a lot of respect but you also want to make them fully believable, or none of them will get any respect until you actually nuke someone. China can't say that US forces in Taiwan will be a nuclear red line because it isn't, that won't achieve the desired result (the US being scared to do it), it'll only create a scenario in which the US does it anyway and China look like fools. Your claimed red lines, things that you'll end the world over, need to be more or less accurate.
If Russia declares that they'll end the world unless Ukraine gives them Donbass nobody will believe them because it's not believable.
If legit then these mobilization numbers appear headed for disaster.
And while Russia flails on the battlefield, officials in Moscow have scrambled to assign blame for Russia's abrupt turn in fortunes, a senior NATO official said.
"Kremlin officials and state media pundits have been feverishly discussing the reasons for the failure in Kharkiv and in typical fashion, the Kremlin seems to be attempting to deflect the blame away from Putin and onto the Russian military," this person said.
Already, there has been a reshuffling of military leadership in response to the battlefield failures -- leaving Russia's command structure even more jumbled than it was before, sources say. The commander who oversaw the majority of the units around the Kharkiv region had been in the post only 15 days and has now been relieved of duty, the NATO official said.
Russia has sent "a small number" of troops into eastern Ukraine -- some of whom had fled amid Ukraine's battlefield advances last week, according to two US defense officials -- an effort to shore up its weakened defensive lines.
But even if Russia is able to coalesce around a plan, US and western officials believe Russia is limited in its ability to mount a strategically significant response to Ukraine's counteroffensive operations that in recent days, sources say, has swung the momentum in Kyiv's favor.
Even after the announcement of the partial mobilization, officials are skeptical that Russia is capable of quickly deploying large numbers of troops into Ukraine given its ongoing problems with supply lines, communications and morale.
The "small scale" of the Russian redeployment is a signal of its inability to mount any serious operations, the senior defense official told CNN.
So far, Russia has responded to Ukraine's advances by launching attacks against critical infrastructure like dams and power plants -- attacks that the US sees as largely "revenge" attacks rather than operationally significant salvos, this person said.
Absent more manpower that, right now, it simply doesn't have, sources said Russia has few other options to penalize or push back Ukrainian forces. Putin is "struggling," National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby said in an appearance on CNN on Wednesday. Russia's military has "poor unit cohesion, desertions in the ranks, soldiers not wanting to fight," Kirby said.
According to balkanmapping a lot of sirens were heard all over Ukraine (including in the west) during the last 24 hours. This is similar to what happened right after Ukraine retook Kharkiv. I don't know why this time though.
Also, Orban has called for all sanctions against Russia to be lifted by the end of 2022.
On September 22 2022 18:52 pmh wrote: The only way forward for Russia is escalating the conflict. I am surprised they have not done so already but maybe the leadership in Moscow is more divided then it apears to be.
Anex the occupied territorys to make them part of Russia. After which an attack on those territorys would be seen as an attack on Russia which could justify a nuclear response depending on how events unfold. They want this to be done for the winter i guess,in an attempt to secure the gains that have been made. Then after the winter reinforcements from the mobilization will be available,which would require an increase in western support to maintain the stalemate.
The anexation will act as a sort of red line that Ukraine can not cross without potentially triggering a severe response. It will still be pretty much a stalemate. It creates a difficult situation for Ukraine and the west. If they cant attack the anexed territorys then they can have no hope of ever gaining the upperhand while Russia can wait for the appropiate moment to make their attacks. And if they do attack then Russia gets the escalation they want and the argument they need (mostly internally) for a severe response. Its a sort of critical moment in the conflict,a potential transition into a different kind of conflict. It is also a critical moment for the leadership in Moscow.
A continuation of the stalemate (albeit with a higher intensity) is still the most likely outcome i think but the risk for further escalation is bigger then earlier this year. The change for a positive outcome for Ukraine and the west (which would be a regime change) might also have increased slightly though i do think the change for this is rather small in general. The conflict is becoming less predictable and more volatile,the range of realistic and possible outcomes has grown wider.
If Russia declares that they'll end the world unless Ukraine gives them Donbass nobody will believe them because it's not believable.
Well, it seems Medvedev states exactly that:
"The protection of all the territories that have joined in [after the referenda in occupied territories] will be significantly strengthened by Russia’s Armed Forces," Medvedev wrote.
He added that "not only mobilization capabilities, but also any Russian weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons and weapons based on new principles, can be used for such protection.".
On September 23 2022 02:22 Magic Powers wrote: According to balkanmapping a lot of sirens were heard all over Ukraine (including in the west) during the last 24 hours. This is similar to what happened right after Ukraine retook Kharkiv. I don't know why this time though.
Also, Orban has called for all sanctions against Russia to be lifted by the end of 2022.
Totally unrelated but it would be a shame if those suspended European funds for Hungary remained suspended indefinitely.
We talked about it, this was to be expected, absolutely no surprise to me. It's nicely compiled, very user friendly and there will be much more. As i said back then, this information is gathered constantly even in peacetime. Radio signal location, backed up by satellite/drone pictures and/or human sources, etc. It wouldn't make any sense to not supply Ukraine with this free information and just blindly send them weapons.
This might be used as a selling point, that Russia is fighting NATO and the west, which is still absolutely not the case.
This is really starting to give me anxiety. Why can't these old men just live in peace rather than sending the youth to their deaths for no reason? Threatening to end the world because they want a few extra square kilometres
So it appears Ukraine has all of Russia's designation points under artillery fire/can zero in at a moments notice.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed four command and control posts on the the southern front, the Ukrainian military’s Operational Command South reported on Sept. 21.
The Ukrainian Air Force also conducted 21 air strikes against enemy positions.
In addition, Ukrainian Marines destroyed an enemy Mi-24 helicopter near the village of Kostromka. When the Russians tried to conduct aerial reconnaissance, Ukrainian units discovered and destroyed two Orlan-10 drones.
OC South added that in order to protect their units from air and missile strikes, the invaders deployed air defense units in the Beryslavsky district.
EPT
