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On July 06 2022 02:48 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote:
There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now. If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed.
And what's the good of money in stone-age?
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On July 06 2022 03:15 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 03:09 raynpelikoneet wrote:On July 06 2022 03:06 Magic Powers wrote:
[...]There is no overwhelming support for the war, that's a made up fantasy by the Russian state. They lie to the people to keep them brainwashed, but it wasn't successful for the "overwhelming majority" of Russian people, contrary to what some dubious surveys are suggesting.[...] I fail to understand why the war is going on if this is the reality. If you tell me you don't like the war I will throw you, your wife, your children and your parents in a prison camp in siberia. No one is going to stop me, or come to save you. Do you tell me you don't like the war? There we go, the mystery of why the war is happening despite the people not liking it is solved. In America the support for the war in Iraq dropped below 50% in 2004 and as far as I can quickly find never recovered. it took another 17 years before the US left. Why was the US in Iraq for 17 years if a majority didn't want it? Where was the revolt?
You're right i don't like war. You should not have gone to Iraq either when you did. It has probably have more negative consequences for me then for you.
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It's kinda' hilarious how a guy from Austria who claims to be from Germany keeps bashing people who actually live in the region, have lots of Russian friends, because he has sources who interview people in Russia.
Anyway... On to serious matters. Just had drinks with some Germans in Brussels who had the funniest stories about SE and FI joining NATO.
Apparently, Jens Stoltenberg gifted the ambassadors the pens they used to sign the accession documents with the words: "here's the last gift you'll ever receive from NATO, everything else you gotta' pay for".
Also, apparently, the countries already finished all their accession negotiations. This process usually takes months if not years... So, once govt's ratify the agreements, they're in.
No idea if that's true, but it shows the mood in Brussels atm.
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On July 06 2022 03:18 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 02:48 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote:
There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now. If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed. And what's the good of money in stone-age?
Russia is not in the Stone Age. The removal of Putin by fellow Russians would not put them into the Stone Age either unless you think Putin plans on nuking himself.
I don’t want a foreign government to attack Putin, in an ideal world, his own people get sick of him and remove him. One Russian assassin’s bullet could end the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, one assassin of another nationality would risk intensifying or spreading the war.
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I am very intrigued by the Russian people not being a fan of the war, doing everything they can to stop it, but not then doing anything, and then being on denial because someone told them so and again not doing anything but still wanting to do anything because of ???.
Sounds like a standard Russian to me (no offense to any Russians here), i have done business with many.
EDIT: for convenience this was collected on what other people said, it just made me go lulz ^^
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On July 06 2022 04:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am very intrigued by the Russian people not being a fan of the war, doing everything they can to stop it, but not then doing anything, and then being on denial because someone told them so and again not doing anything but still wanting to do anything because of ???.
Sounds like a standard Russian to me (no offense to any Russians here), i have done business with many.
EDIT: for convenience this was collected on what other people said, it just made me go lulz ^^
I don't think you have offended anyone. What you said made sense, don't overthink it.
My wife is russian. Her mother is anti-putin, anti-war, but become paranoid and has stopped going to protests probably for 4 years.
Her Grandmother died the day before the war, she was pro-putin, just because the TV said the things it said. My wife would talk to her everyday but politics was like stonewall, just repeat the thing that are told in TV and that's it.
Polls don't know the situation, because no one trust enough to tell. Of course you are going to know inside your family but that's about it.
If you have contact within Russia, there is already a built-in biased in a pro-democracy.
This does not mean that outside of Russia, there are no pro-putin Russians, it just means it is easier to judge the absurdity of Russian misinformation.
I believe that Russian people right now are in a "not my problem" state of mind and that is enough for evil to prevail.
They need a French revolution, if they want to get rid of the tsar.
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On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory.
Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies.
As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine.
_____
On July 06 2022 04:15 raynpelikoneet wrote:
They need a French revolution, if they want to get rid of the tsar. Do you know what occured during and in the immediate aftermath of the French Revolution?
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On July 06 2022 03:48 Ghanburighan wrote:
It's kinda' hilarious how a guy from Austria who claims to be from Germany keeps bashing people who actually live in the region, have lots of Russian friends, because he has sources who interview people in Russia.
Anyway... On to serious matters. Just had drinks with some Germans in Brussels who had the funniest stories about SE and FI joining NATO.
Apparently, Jens Stoltenberg gifted the ambassadors the pens they used to sign the accession documents with the words: "here's the last gift you'll ever receive from NATO, everything else you gotta' pay for".
Also, apparently, the countries already finished all their accession negotiations. This process usually takes months if not years... So, once govt's ratify the agreements, they're in.
No idea if that's true, but it shows the mood in Brussels atm.
Lads, go home, there is no discussion here, the FIns and Estonians are the only ones who know anything about the war, hilaroíous that an Austrian even dares having a different opinion  He doesn't even have a border with Russia!
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On July 06 2022 03:51 RenSC2 wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 03:18 SSIII wrote:On July 06 2022 02:48 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote:
There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now. If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed. And what's the good of money in stone-age? Russia is not in the Stone Age. The removal of Putin by fellow Russians would not put them into the Stone Age either unless you think Putin plans on nuking himself. I don’t want a foreign government to attack Putin, in an ideal world, his own people get sick of him and remove him. One Russian assassin’s bullet could end the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, one assassin of another nationality would risk intensifying or spreading the war.
I mean it is a "you- die- or- I -die" game, if Putin is down or Russia is down, I don't think peace will come and Russian people will have a better life than they had in the 1990s, the countries around(and not around) Russia hate her so much that she would be dismembered into 10+ pieces, every NATO country got a promised land in the east, and Russian people's life will go back to stoneage, or be enslaved,men are sold to Africa digging diamonds, women are sold to brothels all over the world. Sounds kinda impossible in modern society but sometimes the reality is against instinct.
I don't think it is a good idea to assassinate Putin, it would just aggravate the tension.
User was banned for this post.
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Canada11350 Posts
Show me who has territorial aspirations to cut up Russia. There is no one. Europe was quite happy to trade with Russia before (so much so, it still finds it difficult to detach its energy imports). If Russian troops packed up and went back across their border, I'm sure every country would be great with not feeling guilty about their energy imports.
Where do you get this apocalyptic doomsday scenario from? You expect the only thing stopping the rest of the world from invading and cutting up Russia is Putin? Rubbish. Eventually Putin will die whether from old age or prematurely and I guarantee we will see no vultures circling like your Mad Max speculative fiction would have us believe.
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United States42704 Posts
On July 06 2022 11:53 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 03:51 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 03:18 SSIII wrote:On July 06 2022 02:48 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote:
There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now. If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed. And what's the good of money in stone-age? Russia is not in the Stone Age. The removal of Putin by fellow Russians would not put them into the Stone Age either unless you think Putin plans on nuking himself. I don’t want a foreign government to attack Putin, in an ideal world, his own people get sick of him and remove him. One Russian assassin’s bullet could end the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, one assassin of another nationality would risk intensifying or spreading the war. I mean it is a "you- die- or- I -die" game, if Putin is down or Russia is down, I don't think peace will come and Russian people will have a better life than they had in the 1990s, the countries around(and not around) Russia hate her so much that she would be dismembered into 10+ pieces, every NATO country got a promised land in the east, and Russian people's life will go back to stoneage, or be enslaved,men are sold to Africa digging diamonds, women are sold to brothels all over the world. Sounds kinda impossible in modern society but sometimes the reality is against instinct. I don't think it is a good idea to assassinate Putin, it would just aggravate the tension.
Lay off the opium. Nobody in the west does land grabs anymore and they haven’t in about a hundred years. That’s not how anything is done. You don’t want to actually own the place because then the people there are your responsibility and you have to build roads and provide law and order and its a giant clusterfuck. Even at the height of empire empire never actually paid for itself.
You find a local strongman and you give him enough guns to make him king. He’s so grateful he gives your country’s natural resource companies special privileges and concessions to exploit the natural resources. Your companies get rich and you give the strongman enough money that he and his family and his army are all rich. His kids go to Oxford and LSE, they rub shoulders with the right aristocratic little shits, and the world works. The strongman has the problem of how to keep the country together but that’s what you pay him and give him guns for. And if he starts to get weird ideas about doing things differently, well, there are always ambitious colonels in any army and guns are cheap.
Nobody anywhere wants a piece of Russia. Many people may want Russian oil and gas but they certainly don’t want the Russians who come with it. The idea that Russia could be carved up by the west is both patently ridiculous and shows a complete failure to understand how neo-imperialism actually works in an international capitalist world. Even Russians don’t actually want to rule Russia, they want what everyone else wants, to live in London draining the natural wealth of Russia and fucking supermodels.
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On July 06 2022 11:53 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 03:51 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 03:18 SSIII wrote:On July 06 2022 02:48 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote:
There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now. If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed. And what's the good of money in stone-age? Russia is not in the Stone Age. The removal of Putin by fellow Russians would not put them into the Stone Age either unless you think Putin plans on nuking himself. I don’t want a foreign government to attack Putin, in an ideal world, his own people get sick of him and remove him. One Russian assassin’s bullet could end the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, one assassin of another nationality would risk intensifying or spreading the war. I mean it is a "you- die- or- I -die" game, if Putin is down or Russia is down, I don't think peace will come and Russian people will have a better life than they had in the 1990s, the countries around(and not around) Russia hate her so much that she would be dismembered into 10+ pieces, every NATO country got a promised land in the east, and Russian people's life will go back to stoneage, or be enslaved,men are sold to Africa digging diamonds, women are sold to brothels all over the world. Sounds kinda impossible in modern society but sometimes the reality is against instinct. I don't think it is a good idea to assassinate Putin, it would just aggravate the tension.
What fantasy land do you get your information from? No NATO country has promised land in the east. The closest to that would be Ukraine retaking the land guaranteed by a treaty Russia signed in the 90s in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes.
Nobody is enslaving Russians. Russia could easily become a 1st world country if not for Putin holding onto his kleptocracy. Both Bush and Obama were ready to include Russia in NATO and greatly expand trade, but Putin didn't want to be a partner and help his people. Russia under Putin does what is best for Putin holding power, not what is best for the Russian people.
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Zurich15328 Posts
All that being said I can easily imagine a post-Putin future which is worse for the average Russian than is today. And most of these Russian remember the 90s which were worse for them. And it doesn't take foreign intervention. Putin has destroyed all institutional mechanism for transfer of power, and has yet to crown his successor. If he is gone whatever way without a clear successor in place, the following power struggle among oligarchs, mobsters, spooks, and military could mean catastrophe for the people.
People might feel the war is wrong, but it's still "my Czar, right or wrong".
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Austria4112 Posts
On July 06 2022 05:22 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On July 05 2022 08:45 Magic Powers wrote:On July 05 2022 06:49 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Don't know why you are all acting so suprised that Russia is capable of taking a city that has been slowly encircled for weeks, when I did say they are learning lessons and their army is coordinating over a month ago. Can't remember where I got this from, but it was reported that Russia is throwing about 50 thousand artillery shells a day. This sounds like a lot, and it is if if you are in the target area, but for point of comparison WW1 could see a million shells on certain days. There is no chance Russia will run into supply issues as long as Ukraine cannot strike deep into Russian supply points and Russia keeps its slow rate of advance. Russia hasn't learned much of a lesson then, as they've only claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, and in the process they've depleted a lot of their arsenal. Russia is already facing supply issues, and has been for weeks at least. For us to misunderstand the situation would mean that Russia has been significantly holding back so far, which is certainly not the case, with the exception of the nuclear option. They're factually incapable of meaningfully striking deeper into Ukraine. They've directed their fire onto certain regions more than others, resulting in a success like encircling Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and that whole region, while at the same time relinguishing control over numerous other regions that nobody has spoken about in recent weeks, but it's been happening continuously. My assumption would be that Russia, in order to have that one success, ordered a reduction of manpower in those other regions. So as has been said a few times, claiming territory is one thing, but holding it is another, and I guess that's especially true during an offensive war. Hence why I'd consider this phase the special stalling operations. I don't see how you can say Russia has claimed as much ground as they've surrendered, when Russia occupies whole areas of Ukraine whereas, Ukraine controls none of Russia's territory. Or perhaps you meant from some indeterminate point of time, in which case you'll have to provide a date, preferably but not neccessarily from within a month ago, so it makes some sort of sense. Then we can compare. Some areas nearby Kharkiv has been regained, but the importance of such pales in comparison to the territory Russia now occupies. The difference in the area, and of the importance of the two cities is a far bigger gain than a few towns and villages, both in the area, and of former population sense and in strategical and logistical sense, as cities are always on major roads and crossroads, far more defensible than villages and farmland, and make for good places to store supplies. As to the rest, it is as you admit, a bunch of assumptions. Hopeful assumptions which I share the intention of, but thoughts and prayers will not help Ukraine.
A few weeks ago I posted a comparison of the battle lines. The starting point was after Russia had withdrawn from the North, because I wanted to show how much progress Russia was able to make in the weeks/months since. There was no overall progress, the lines had shifted in both directions about equally.
Recently I've made another comparison, but this time I didn't post it because it was the same conclusion of no overall progress. I can post it though so you can compare them.
![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/1tmGVGn0/Stand-4-April-2022.png)
![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/QCVc0jqH/Stand-05-Juli-2022.png)
As you can see, in the Severodonetsk region Russia has made significant progress. But if you compare the entire front, Ukraine has pushed back in many other regions. In total it's roughly equal on both sides.
This is how I drew my conclusion of Ukraine successfully stalling, and it's why I'm optimistic about Ukraine eventually being able to push Russia back to the borders, unless of course Putin escalates and goes nuclear.
Unfortunately I think it's quite likely that it'll take years because Ukrainians are mostly fighting alone. But who knows what'll happen, it's too early to call a definitive outcome.
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On July 06 2022 11:53 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 03:51 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 03:18 SSIII wrote:On July 06 2022 02:48 RenSC2 wrote:On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote:
There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now. If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed. And what's the good of money in stone-age? Russia is not in the Stone Age. The removal of Putin by fellow Russians would not put them into the Stone Age either unless you think Putin plans on nuking himself. I don’t want a foreign government to attack Putin, in an ideal world, his own people get sick of him and remove him. One Russian assassin’s bullet could end the war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, one assassin of another nationality would risk intensifying or spreading the war. I mean it is a "you- die- or- I -die" game, if Putin is down or Russia is down, I don't think peace will come and Russian people will have a better life than they had in the 1990s, the countries around(and not around) Russia hate her so much that she would be dismembered into 10+ pieces, every NATO country got a promised land in the east, and Russian people's life will go back to stoneage, or be enslaved,men are sold to Africa digging diamonds, women are sold to brothels all over the world. Sounds kinda impossible in modern society but sometimes the reality is against instinct. I don't think it is a good idea to assassinate Putin, it would just aggravate the tension.
How do you arrive at such laughable expectations? Is it because that is what China would do in this case?
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Its just a clear sign that propaganda works. Kinda funny to see it like that in the wild.
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On July 06 2022 14:45 zatic wrote:
All that being said I can easily imagine a post-Putin future which is worse for the average Russian than is today. And most of these Russian remember the 90s which were worse for them. And it doesn't take foreign intervention. Putin has destroyed all institutional mechanism for transfer of power, and has yet to crown his successor. If he is gone whatever way without a clear successor in place, the following power struggle among oligarchs, mobsters, spooks, and military could mean catastrophe for the people.
People might feel the war is wrong, but it's still "my Czar, right or wrong".
Correction, we do know the likely successor to Putin, it's Alexei Dyumin. Putin has ensured that the FSB or the siloviki will remain in power. So it's not so much a Putin regime, it's the security apparatus that has consolidated control.
As an Estonian, I remember the pain of the 90s, food shortages, endless reforms... But after a few years of pain, there was only quick and tangible progress. Without real reforms, Russia cannot become a prosperous modern state. But these reforms were stunted under Yeltsin and then eviscerated by Putin. Because, in the end, you cannot be a multi-billionaire dictator in such a modern democracy. But even after the pain of the 90s, the Russian people, in the first days of the 2000s, before the propaganda was turned back on, they were still hopeful about their future. Something that I don't see among my Russian friends today.
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On July 06 2022 15:39 justanothertownie wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 11:53 SSIII wrote:
I mean it is a "you- die- or- I -die" game, if Putin is down or Russia is down, I don't think peace will come and Russian people will have a better life than they had in the 1990s, the countries around(and not around) Russia hate her so much that she would be dismembered into 10+ pieces, every NATO country got a promised land in the east, and Russian people's life will go back to stoneage, or be enslaved,men are sold to Africa digging diamonds, women are sold to brothels all over the world. Sounds kinda impossible in modern society but sometimes the reality is against instinct.
I don't think it is a good idea to assassinate Putin, it would just aggravate the tension. How do you arrive at such laughable expectations? Is it because that is what China would do in this case?
haha, I know it's funny, I just want to add some flavouring because the thread smells alittle spicy.
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On July 06 2022 12:12 RenSC2 wrote:
Both Bush and Obama were ready to include Russia in NATO and greatly expand trade, but Putin didn't want to be a partner and help his people .
Best politic joke I have heard in a long time.
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On July 06 2022 17:06 SSIII wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2022 15:39 justanothertownie wrote:On July 06 2022 11:53 SSIII wrote:
I mean it is a "you- die- or- I -die" game, if Putin is down or Russia is down, I don't think peace will come and Russian people will have a better life than they had in the 1990s, the countries around(and not around) Russia hate her so much that she would be dismembered into 10+ pieces, every NATO country got a promised land in the east, and Russian people's life will go back to stoneage, or be enslaved,men are sold to Africa digging diamonds, women are sold to brothels all over the world. Sounds kinda impossible in modern society but sometimes the reality is against instinct.
I don't think it is a good idea to assassinate Putin, it would just aggravate the tension. How do you arrive at such laughable expectations? Is it because that is what China would do in this case? haha, I know it's funny, I just want to add some flavouring because the thread smells alittle spicy. No one is buying your 'lol I was only joking'.
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EPT
