NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On July 05 2022 18:39 Ghanburighan wrote: If going to war were unpopular, Putin wouldn't be doing it like clockwork. In fact, it seems to be a sure-fire way to stabilize his dictatorship. It distracts the masses from the problems at home, it allows for more draconian measures for cracking down on the opposition, etc. Unfortunately, unless RU and its people change, the regimes will keep fighting wars every few years for domestic reasons.
That's a highly fallacious argument that I'm completely convinced doesn't match with reality. Is this idea born out of hatred for the Russian people, who I think by and large just want to live and let live?
That's not any hatred, it's just reality.
On July 05 2022 20:45 Magic Powers wrote: I recommend you watch some of the videos by 1420, it shows that Russians are not anywhere near as much in favor of this war as the Russian propaganda is trying to make us believe.
And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
On July 06 2022 01:03 KwarK wrote: Propaganda works. Putin has control over the media and has been pushing a specific worldview to a largely insular population. It’s not unreasonable that they would favour his policies and it says little about Russians. People are susceptible to propaganda and there has been a colossal effort into creating systems to pull their levers. Same with Argentines and the Falklands, historical Germans and everyone else in Europe, and Americans and the Middle East. Humans are generally good with tribalism.
You're right but that doesn't mean that Ghanburighan is wrong, in fact he is very right in what he is saying.
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
Are you being serious?
Yes i am. If i am not correct here then we can probably agree on what Putin is and what Russia is and stop arguing in the first place, or?
EDIT: Or idk what you're saying, is it that Russians just are against the war and just support Putin for the lulz as his ratings raise or what?
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
Are you being serious?
Yes i am. If i am not correct here then we can probably agree on what Putin is and what Russia is and stop arguing in the first place, or?
EDIT: Or idk what you're saying, is it that Russians just are against the war and just support Putin for the lulz as his ratings raise or what?
I was asking because your claim is some of the wildest imagination I've heard in my life. The Russian people have had much greater incentive to revolt against their regime many times before, and yet they never do so successfully. Instead it took the dissolution of the Soviet Union for any kind of resolve, which was not the doing of the people; and still today the Russian people are oppressed. But a war against another country should trigger a successful revolt, when the citizens are being kept in the dark about it - even though those who understand the situation are supposedly in the minority, according to the polls that people keep talking about here? This whole argument makes no sense. The Russian people are oppressed, and they're not in a position to revolt successfully.
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
Are you being serious?
Yes i am. If i am not correct here then we can probably agree on what Putin is and what Russia is and stop arguing in the first place, or?
EDIT: Or idk what you're saying, is it that Russians just are against the war and just support Putin for the lulz as his ratings raise or what?
I was asking because your claim is some of the wildest imagination I've heard in my life. The Russian people have had much greater incentive to revolt against their regime many times before, and yet they never do so successfully. Instead it took the dissolution of the Soviet Union for any kind of resolve, which was not the doing of the people; and still today the Russian people are oppressed. But a war against another country should trigger a successful revolt, when the citizens are being kept in the dark about it - even though those who understand the situation are supposedly in the minority, according to the polls that people keep talking about here? This whole argument makes no sense. The Russian people are oppressed, and they're not in a position to revolt successfully.
So we agree that Russia is oppressed enough to not "revolt". But you seem to think thinking they CAN because of some youtubers or what?
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
Are you being serious?
Yes i am. If i am not correct here then we can probably agree on what Putin is and what Russia is and stop arguing in the first place, or?
EDIT: Or idk what you're saying, is it that Russians just are against the war and just support Putin for the lulz as his ratings raise or what?
I was asking because your claim is some of the wildest imagination I've heard in my life. The Russian people have had much greater incentive to revolt against their regime many times before, and yet they never do so successfully. Instead it took the dissolution of the Soviet Union for any kind of resolve, which was not the doing of the people; and still today the Russian people are oppressed. But a war against another country should trigger a successful revolt, when the citizens are being kept in the dark about it - even though those who understand the situation are supposedly in the minority, according to the polls that people keep talking about here? This whole argument makes no sense. The Russian people are oppressed, and they're not in a position to revolt successfully.
So we agree that Russia is oppressed enough to not "revolt". But you seem to think thinking they CAN because of some youtubers or what?
Which is it?
No, a Russian revolt is simply absurd. And what I think is my business, here's what I think: my point is that the Russian people can only be rightfully considered orcs by Ukrainians and their families, or people in touch with them. They're the only ones who are justified in having such views. Not most of us. I do not think it's right that so much vitriol against Russian people is being spread on tl.net, by people who are just observers of the situation.
Successful revolts come randomly, this has been researched. The people do not have a say in whether or not a revolt works. Also, revolts do not correlate with any benefit to the people, they happen for popular and unpopular reasons. Adversity is one of the driving factors. Alliance with another powerful nation is often a factor, as was the case with the February Revolution. The driving factors are well documented, but they're still unpredictable and not in the hands of the people, and not even necessarily in favor of liberation. Ever since the creation of the Soviet Union, Russian people have never successfully revolted, despite having every reason. The people of East Germany weren't liberated by means of revolution either. The dissolution of the SU wasn't a result of revolution either.
And yet this war is supposed to trigger a successful revolution? That's an absurd idea. They can't plan that.
On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote: There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now.
If Russians took out Putin and the new government pulled out of Ukraine, I would bet a lot of western money would flow into Russia. It would be great for the Russian people to remove Putin if a new government could be implemented with minimal bloodshed.
On July 06 2022 02:33 SSIII wrote: There's no turnback , it might be the worst option for Russians, to take Putin down now.
Russia seems to currently be on a course to join North Korea, I don't think there are a lot of options that are worse when where Russia is currently heading.
But as others have said, just because the people are unhappy, but unwilling and afraid to voice that, doesn't mean a revolution will happen.
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
Are you being serious?
Yes i am. If i am not correct here then we can probably agree on what Putin is and what Russia is and stop arguing in the first place, or?
EDIT: Or idk what you're saying, is it that Russians just are against the war and just support Putin for the lulz as his ratings raise or what?
I was asking because your claim is some of the wildest imagination I've heard in my life. The Russian people have had much greater incentive to revolt against their regime many times before, and yet they never do so successfully. Instead it took the dissolution of the Soviet Union for any kind of resolve, which was not the doing of the people; and still today the Russian people are oppressed. But a war against another country should trigger a successful revolt, when the citizens are being kept in the dark about it - even though those who understand the situation are supposedly in the minority, according to the polls that people keep talking about here? This whole argument makes no sense. The Russian people are oppressed, and they're not in a position to revolt successfully.
So we agree that Russia is oppressed enough to not "revolt". But you seem to think thinking they CAN because of some youtubers or what?
Which is it?
No, a Russian revolt is simply absurd. And what I think is my business, here's what I think: my point is that the Russian people can only be rightfully considered orcs by Ukrainians and their families, or people in touch with them. They're the only ones who are justified in having such views. Not most of us. I do not think it's right that so much vitriol against Russian people is being spread on tl.net, by people who are just observers of the situation.
I think the news and the videos show what they do, and whatever people can be considered whatever by those. Not by what the "real" news tell you. You make your own decisions on who is right and who is wrong there.
Successful revolts come randomly, this has been researched. The people do not have a say in whether or not a revolt works. Also, revolts do not correlate with any benefit to the people, they happen for popular and unpopular reasons. Adversity is one of the driving factors. Alliance with another powerful nation is often a factor, as was the case with the February Revolution. The driving factors are well documented, but they're still unpredictable and not in the hands of the people, and not even necessarily in favor of liberation. Ever since the creation of the Soviet Union, Russian people have never successfully revolted, despite having every reason. The people of East Germany weren't liberated by means of revolution either. The dissolution of the SU wasn't a result of revolution either.
Whenever people don't like their leader (dictator) there is going to be a revolt and it's either going to succeed or suppressed. That's how it goes. Maybe it doesn't happen in Russia, maybe it does, who knows. For this or for something else or for nothing ever.
And yet this war is supposed to trigger a successful revolution? That's an absurd idea. They can't plan that.
I never said that, i was just questioning you saying it never could. But you should not be trying to be "all-knowing" with people who actually live close to Russia, and tell them what they should think, i am just saying. A Finn or Estonian might just know better than someone sitting in their bunker.
On July 06 2022 00:32 Magic Powers wrote: Which reputable polling stations have asked Russian civilians for their views?
Levada. It's independent. You also have polls among the Russia diaspora in the West. The problem with reliability of polls conducted in Russia seems less relevant when you notice that every single source of information - polls among the Russian diaspora, street interviews, intelligence reports, interactions with Russians online, interactions with Russians IRL and information about the opinions of Russian immigrants in the West - paint the exact same picture.
The Levada Center is Russian based, they can't be trusted to report accurate numbers. Denis Volkov did not disclose key information. "Independent" in this context has about as much meaning as "democracy", of which there is none in Russia.
And no, the picture is not the same everywhere, hence why I recommend watching the interviews by 1420.
Did Levada suddenly stop being reliable? I watched most relevant videos by 1420 and it's pretty much 50:50. Some videos lean heavily against the war. Others are heavily pro-war and there are many in-between. There's a clear correlation with age and Moscow/SPB are less pro-war.
This is the reality of Russian people. In this video posted three weeks ago, 1420 shows Russians images of the destruction in Ukraine. Some are in denial, like the man at 1:10, but others understand. The next one mentions getting a fine if he speaks up. There is no overwhelming support for the war, that's a made up fantasy by the Russian state. They lie to the people to keep them brainwashed, but it wasn't successful for the "overwhelming majority" of Russian people, contrary to what some dubious surveys are suggesting. And these people in the video are only the ones who are willing to talk about it, no mention of all the others who refused to engage. And many of the ones talking are very clearly nervous. Some are seen even strongly and openly opposing the war (for example the man at 0:56).
On July 06 2022 03:01 raynpelikoneet wrote: But you should not be trying to be "all-knowing" with people who actually live close to Russia, and tell them what they should think, i am just saying. A Finn or Estonian might just know better than someone sitting in their bunker.
I get my information directly from people inside Russia interviewing Russian people.
On July 06 2022 01:38 raynpelikoneet wrote: And the "Russian people" have all the power to stop the war, yet they don't happen to have any incentive (apparently) to do so.
Are you being serious?
Yes i am. If i am not correct here then we can probably agree on what Putin is and what Russia is and stop arguing in the first place, or?
EDIT: Or idk what you're saying, is it that Russians just are against the war and just support Putin for the lulz as his ratings raise or what?
I was asking because your claim is some of the wildest imagination I've heard in my life. The Russian people have had much greater incentive to revolt against their regime many times before, and yet they never do so successfully. Instead it took the dissolution of the Soviet Union for any kind of resolve, which was not the doing of the people; and still today the Russian people are oppressed. But a war against another country should trigger a successful revolt, when the citizens are being kept in the dark about it - even though those who understand the situation are supposedly in the minority, according to the polls that people keep talking about here? This whole argument makes no sense. The Russian people are oppressed, and they're not in a position to revolt successfully.
So we agree that Russia is oppressed enough to not "revolt". But you seem to think thinking they CAN because of some youtubers or what?
Which is it?
No, a Russian revolt is simply absurd. And what I think is my business, here's what I think: my point is that the Russian people can only be rightfully considered orcs by Ukrainians and their families, or people in touch with them. They're the only ones who are justified in having such views. Not most of us. I do not think it's right that so much vitriol against Russian people is being spread on tl.net, by people who are just observers of the situation.
I think the news and the videos show what they do, and whatever people can be considered whatever by those. Not by what the "real" news tell you. You make your own decisions on who is right and who is wrong there.
Successful revolts come randomly, this has been researched. The people do not have a say in whether or not a revolt works. Also, revolts do not correlate with any benefit to the people, they happen for popular and unpopular reasons. Adversity is one of the driving factors. Alliance with another powerful nation is often a factor, as was the case with the February Revolution. The driving factors are well documented, but they're still unpredictable and not in the hands of the people, and not even necessarily in favor of liberation. Ever since the creation of the Soviet Union, Russian people have never successfully revolted, despite having every reason. The people of East Germany weren't liberated by means of revolution either. The dissolution of the SU wasn't a result of revolution either.
Whenever people don't like their leader (dictator) there is going to be a revolt and it's either going to succeed or suppressed. That's how it goes. Maybe it doesn't happen in Russia, maybe it does, who knows. For this or for something else or for nothing ever.
I never said that, i was just questioning you saying it never could. But you should not be trying to be "all-knowing" with people who actually live close to Russia, and tell them what they should think, i am just saying. A Finn or Estonian might just know better than someone sitting in their bunker.
Wow there, no. The notion that not liking your dictators = revolt has absolutely no bearing on history. Its filled from front to back with dictators that were not liked who either were never revolted against, or successfully oppressed their subjects for decades and decades before a revolution finally managed to start.
On July 06 2022 03:06 Magic Powers wrote: [...]There is no overwhelming support for the war, that's a made up fantasy by the Russian state. They lie to the people to keep them brainwashed, but it wasn't successful for the "overwhelming majority" of Russian people, contrary to what some dubious surveys are suggesting.[...]
I fail to understand why the war is going on if this is the reality.
On July 06 2022 03:06 Magic Powers wrote: [...]There is no overwhelming support for the war, that's a made up fantasy by the Russian state. They lie to the people to keep them brainwashed, but it wasn't successful for the "overwhelming majority" of Russian people, contrary to what some dubious surveys are suggesting.[...]
I fail to understand why the war is going on if this is the reality.
If you tell me you don't like the war I will throw you, your wife, your children and your parents in a prison camp in siberia. No one is going to stop me, or come to save you. Do you tell me you don't like the war?
There we go, the mystery of why the war is happening despite the people not liking it is solved.
In America the support for the war in Iraq dropped below 50% in 2004 and as far as I can quickly find never recovered. it took another 17 years before the US left. Why was the US in Iraq for 17 years if a majority didn't want it? Where was the revolt?
On July 06 2022 03:06 Magic Powers wrote: [...]There is no overwhelming support for the war, that's a made up fantasy by the Russian state. They lie to the people to keep them brainwashed, but it wasn't successful for the "overwhelming majority" of Russian people, contrary to what some dubious surveys are suggesting.[...]
I fail to understand why the war is going on if this is the reality.
Because the Russian people don't control Russia's trajectory, they're oppressed. They've been oppressed for decades, centuries even. They never had a real democracy, ever, at any point, and they still don't. And by use of propaganda as well as other tactics, including imprisonment and violence and in a few cases even killings, the Russian government is keeping the people in check. If you want to know who the Russian people really support, it's people like Navalny, who was exiled and later falsely imprisoned because he was too successful opposing Putin as a presidential candidate. He was too popular, and he would love to give the Russian people freedom.
EPT
