Russo-Ukrainian War Thread - Page 119

Ukrainian forces may soon force Russian troops out of artillery range of Kharkiv, according to an assessment that says the fight in the Donbass region is entering a decisive phase.

U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Friday that over the previous 24 hours, Ukrainian forces had captured several settlements north east of Ukraine's second largest city in an operation which has developed into a "successful, broader counteroffensive."

It said that Ukrainian forces are "notably retaking territory along a broad arc around Kharkiv rather than focusing on a narrow thrust" and this showed they were able to launch larger-scale offensive operations than they have been previously able to.

Ukraine's forces "may successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days," the ISW said, adding they may be able to "relieve Russian pressure on Kharkiv and possibly threaten to make further advances to the Russian border."

It comes as the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces said Russian forces have started to blow up bridges to slow a Ukrainian offensive in the the area of Tsyrkuny and Rusky Tyshky east of Kharkiv.

"Russian occupiers blew up three road bridges in order to slow down the counter-offensive actions of the Defense Forces of Ukraine," Ukraine's military said in its update on Facebook, although this has not been independently verified. Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment.

Meanwhile, in its daily update, Britain's Ministry of Defense said that the war was "taking a heavy toll on some of Russia's most capable units and most advanced capabilities." It referred to the destruction this week by Kyiv's forces of at least one T-90M, which is Russia's most advanced tank.

"It will take considerable time and expense for Russia to reconstitute its armed forces following this conflict," British defense officials said, referring to sanctions which will hamper Russia's access to microelectronic components.

Meanwhile, rescuers were looking to evacuate more civilians from Mariupol's Azovstal plant where dozens of people, including children, remain trapped underground.

Russian officials and Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said the evacuation efforts would continue into the weekend, the Associated Press reported. Several dozen people were handed over to the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross on Friday.

The fate of hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers trapped at the steelworks is unknown. Russia has repeatedly said that they can only leave if they lay down their arms.

Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelensky described the Russian military's conduct in Mariupol as "inhuman."

In a live streamed address to the Chatham House think tank in London on Friday, he said that if Russia kills civilians that could be exchanged as prisoners of war, "I don't think we can have any diplomatic talks with them after that."

A European Union embargo on Russian oil would devastate production and topple Moscow as a top global oil power, experts told Insider.

Due to Russia's limited ability to store unsold oil, an embargo would force cutbacks to production. But even before the EU proposed a ban Wednesday, the Kremlin had already warned last month oil output could fall as much as 17% this year.

Then Rystad Energy estimated this month that Russian oil production could crash 20% by 2030 to 7.5 million barrels per day. Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, predicted that decline could actually happen within a year or two after an embargo.

And slashing production would hinder Russia's ability to pump oil over the long term as extreme climates in oil-making regions like Siberia could damage wells if they go dormant for extended periods.

An embargo "definitely undermines Russian status as it limits the flow of funding to Russia, making it more difficult to wield its power abroad," Aleksandar Tomic, economist and Boston College associate dean, told Insider.

Even if the embargo doesn't pass, bloc members could still impose bans on a country by country basis, which would still put significant pressure on Moscow, he said.

But more critical to Russia's global standing, Tomic noted, is how other world powers view nations that don't cut ties with Moscow.

"At this point, most likely Russia would have to go through a regime change in order to re-establish trust, and for business to return to normal," Tomic said. "This is likely a very tall order."

Already, countries are hesitant to be seen engaging in business with Moscow. The number of Russian oil cargoes labeled "destination unknown" has skyrocketed since the war in Ukraine began, as wary buyers look to avoid affiliation with the sanctioned nation.

International oil giants are also pulling out of Russia, with the lack of foreign investment and technology in the oil sector likely leading to lower drilling activity, Rystad said.

"An EU embargo on Russian energy would surely cripple the Russian oil and gas industry because Russia would struggle to find alternative buyers for all of its energy and would end up shutting in production — ultimately crimping revenues which its economy is so reliant upon," Kpler's Smith said.

In addition to an oil embargo, the EU also wants to restrict European companies from providing services for Russian oil. Draft legislation points to a ban on those participating in shipping or insuring Russian oil to any country in the world, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

This would make it harder for Moscow to reroute supplies to new markets such as China and India, the two most likely candidates that would take in some of Russia's excess barrels.

The willingness of European nations to potentially crater their own economies to squeeze Russia is telling in itself, according to Ari Redbord, head of legal and government affairs at TRM and a former US Treasury staffer.

"This is a move that was once almost unimaginable," he said of the embargo in an interview with Insider. "These sanctions will have a significant impact on the European economy, which shows just how serious the world is on punishing Russia for its aggression [on Ukraine]."

On May 07 2022 06:41 JimmiC wrote:

Certian pieces of infrastructure need to be rebuilt or fixed right away in parts that are controlled by Ukraine.

I see no reason to assume they are lying.

On May 09 2022 05:28 Magic Powers wrote:
Does anyone know if Ukraine can reclaim most of the lost territory with superior artillery range, but without controlling the airspace?

If there were any doubts left on the matter, the war in Ukraine has proved yet again that the European Union is at present the only source of political progress and change in Europe. Individually, the states have become obstacles to progress.

Take the case of Germany. Here is a country that spent the past decade or two making every possible mistake in its economic policy, oblivious to the costs for other Europeans. I remember hearing from its officials over the years that Germany would never become dependent on Russian energy. Today the same officials openly admit that Germany is indeed completely reliant on gas imports from Russia.

The admission is sometimes joined by expressions of regret and contrition from German politicians, but why should we be satisfied with apologies? Is it enough for Germany to admit it was wrong and that everyone else was right, when it is likely to make new errors in the future? Or should we demand change rather than remorse?

If Germany is to change, it must do so in two ways. First, it has to accept that its policy errors are not separate from the structure of the German economy and can only be corrected through painful structural reforms. There is no hint so far that Germans are ready to reduce their dependency on foreign markets or cheap Russian energy.

Second, and just as important, Germany must correct its parochial outlook – the cause of its economic mistakes – by incorporating it into a European policy framework. Germany should no longer be allowed to make decisions alone that can seriously harm the interests of its European partners. Nord Stream should never happen again. It must adopt a more federal policy in matters of common interest.

Ask yourself what the main obstacle to a European geopolitical awakening has been. Over the past ten years, the European Union gradually but naturally adopted a world-view in which great blocs compete for influence; its policy is always that of growing the European bloc. In the meantime, Germany pursued an economic policy leading directly to the present energy debacle, while France remained captured by romantic images of an old Europe of nations that included Russia.

The problem with allowing France and Germany to continue shaping European policy is not only that they have no legitimacy to do this. So powerful are the biases and so limited are the views they bring to the discussion that such a course will inevitably lead to catastrophic errors, at least as serious as those committed in recent years. Europe would have reached much better decisions if, for example, the German approach to Russia had been combined with the Polish perspective.

There is a second reason that today’s crisis may result in a quantum leap in European integration, and it is to do with the flaws of the present system. As we enter a period of prolonged geopolitical conflict in Europe, will the practice of endless debate and consultation be up to the task? We already see how, on many questions, member states now clamour for clear and final decisions from Brussels. Should they be allowed to pay for energy in roubles? Several national ambassadors have asked the European Commission to tell them what to do. A joint decision must be reached but there is no time for a long internal process.

The Ukraine war is forcing member states to make a fateful choice: do they assume the risks of making vital decisions of war and peace, or do they prefer those choices to be made collectively? The latter option seems preferable, but in that case the EU needs to acquire strength and speed adequate for the purpose.

There is an abundance of radical proposals on how to give Brussels the tools to act in a dangerous world. My favourite would be some version of that classic element of every confederation: the power of veto. There is room in a confederation for many different visions of the future, but no member of the group should be able to compromise the common interest. The way to insure against this risk is by granting a veto to the central institutions – under such a system, for example, the European Commission could have rejected Nord Stream 2. A veto over national decisions should be used sparingly, but it needs to be available when necessary, if only as a negotiation tool and a way to hold Brussels responsible when things go wrong.

Some commentators in Britain have noted that the Ukrainian struggle for national independence shows that the nation state has once again returned to the centre of political life. Love of country is what inspires the Ukrainian fight for freedom. But this does not mean the age of supranational politics is over. The Ukrainians combine their love of Ukraine with a pull towards Europe. Many see the moment when Ukraine will join the European Union as the natural conclusion to their struggle. Why would that be?

The truth is that in geopolitics no country is an island. Ukraine can only rest after it has found a place in the world. Each time a significant voice in Russia openly proclaims that Ukraine does not exist as a nation, it becomes more pressing that Ukrainians find security within a larger whole, a civilisation state. That whole is Europe. Ukraine may be able to survive on its own, but the creation of order on a permanent basis is something only the European Union can be expected to deliver.

Source.

On May 09 2022 04:44 Mohdoo wrote:
“Phasing” can mean a lot of things so I’ll wait to celebrate until I see the numbers

On May 10 2022 01:28 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Apparently what triggered the reaction was the Ambassador saying the Hospital bombings, and Bucha were all staged by Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbXCI8VSkoo

On May 09 2022 05:28 Magic Powers wrote:
Does anyone know if Ukraine can reclaim most of the lost territory with superior artillery range, but without controlling the airspace?

On May 10 2022 01:28 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Apparently what triggered the reaction was the Ambassador saying the Hospital bombings, and Bucha were all staged by Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbXCI8VSkoo