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NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On May 02 2022 23:54 xa2652 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2022 23:26 JimmiC wrote:On May 02 2022 23:16 xa2652 wrote:You can call anyone neo-nazi but you need to have actual evidence to show that. I do not see anything nazi on him, the article calling him neo-nazi does not have anything to back this claim up. However, for Azovs you can see clearly the wolfsangel on their uniform. Just google Nazi Russia or Russian Nazi and you can find all sorts of images. There has even been esports people and athletes banned for making the salutes. It is a stupid argument and given the low post count and it all being here, being pretty darn dumb, and oh so edge makes it very likely you are a PBU. Hope this was "fun"? Also, about Russian energy income, there's one thing you people got wrong tremendously. It's not whether European buying them or not that matters, but the actual price of oil & gas that makes or break the Russian energy income. Because oil & gas are lifeblood of industry and daily life, if European refuse to buy they can always manage to find other customers. By refusing to buy Russian energy you actually push the price up, so they can sell their stuff at a higher price to other customers making them even richer. So by boycotting Russian gas, you are actually helping them out.
I am genuinely curious how you came to such a conclusion.
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On May 02 2022 04:52 plasmidghost wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2022 04:36 Dav1oN wrote:
But if at the start I could believe that declared goals (acceptance of Crimea, separation of LDPR in their administrative borders, Russian language as secon official, reducing of the Urkainian military and changes in government) were actual goals of the war, with the Ukrainian resistance becoming more tough and negotiations grinding to a halt, Russia decided to change the goals and went for the territorial control, since our government understood that nobody in Ukraine will sign peace in our terms. I believe so because in the first weeks of the war it was even forbidden to remove Ukrainian flags from the Russian-controlled territory (not including LDPR though). Even administration in Kherson, Melitopol, Energodarm Berdyansk etc. firstly remained the same. It's in the late March when we started to create military administration on controlled territories and appoint our own mayors in charge of the cities.
I strongly disagree, the real goal of imperialistic regime was always a land grab and "eliminating" Ukrainian identity. You should've been try to listen what kremlin official told us. They've been trying to gaslight the real intentions since forever, including all those bullshit reasons with demilitarization and denazification, there were many words and everything was a nonsense. From the very first day mostly Russian speaking Kharkiv was shelled, with artillery and rocket strikes on residential areas. Does it looks like saving Russian speaking citizens? Quite the opposite. Kremlin simply does not care neither about Ukrainians nor about Russians in general. On day 2 Russian army attempted to capture Kharkiv by a strike group of soldiers/vehicles, as a result they got lost in a city and were eliminated quickly. Maybe before 2014 there were some locals who were interested to be a part of the Russian world, but after 24th of Feb there is no support for the Russian government anymore, majority of the locals clearly understands what is happening, and this is happening in the city 40km from the border. Just think of it, every single action was made by the kremlin resulted the opposite effect. As a result - Ukrainian government, the army and the people are on the same page and are willing to fight till the victory, we care about freedom & democracy historically speaking. It was weird to see/hear when fuhrer and other officials told during their press conferences, here is a number of reasons why so called special operation must be done for the "good": - As if Ukraine is not a legit country w/o history - Ukrainians are suffering from high prices of utility bills - Language discrimination - Nazi government - Biolabs that developed COVID and with the assistance of the US will create a specific viruses that will target Russian "genome" and this virus somehow will be delivered by the seasonal birds - Dirty bomb creation - Planning to attack Russia and/or Donbass WTF? Every single lane sounds insane. All of that is just a pile of crap for dummies. I understand it was mostly targeted for the local rednecks in the Russian provinces, but still... All the reasons in the list are straight from bad sci-fi script, even language discrimination is far from reality. First of all you can speak any language you want anywhere, no one really cares, I've seen no signs of discrimination, in Kharkiv we have many universities and high schools with many foreign students, we are very diverse and opposite to xenophobia. Now here me out, as a bilingual (was born in Russian speaking family) I see absolutely no reason why should we have Russian as a second official language in Ukraine. Everything governmental should be purely in Ukrainian, cinemas, movies, sports etc. In universities the second official language is...English, you could write a diploma in ENG and it will be accepted officially, that practice is happening for a number of years already, some of the official papers (not only in education, but for example in trading) could be translated to ENG and considered as legit as well. To sum it up: you could speak, write and think whatever language you want to, no one cares and no oppression, but if you are a part of governmental structure or broadcasting, or you are dealing with the official papers - must use Ukrainian exclusively. Just deal with it. On May 02 2022 01:22 marwin wrote:Good question. While analyzing info about 2014 pro-Russian protests from Kharkov to Odessa, I saw that the main idea of them was that people wanted to be allowed to be Russian (I mean ethnically), i.e. have Russian as official language at least in Russian-speaking regions (during Yanukovich Ukraine was officially bilingual, but this law was cancelled the next day after he fled the country), do not be treatied as some aliens within the country (common saying in Ukraine regarding those who protested against Euromaidan was: "you don't like something here? Suitcase - train - Russia."), do not be forced to abandon Soviet legacy, since a lot of Russian people are positively predisposed towards Soviet Union, since it was their childhood or youth, and USSR of 70's and early 80's for many people was an image of maybe not luxurious, but stable life with social guarantees for everyone, in contrast with the Wild West that we had here in late 80's-90's. But in Ukraine desovietization became one of the main political points, especially after Euromaidan.
So the main question was not "Where to live?" but "How to live?", be it as a part of Ukraine, as independent state (that's where idea of a Novorossia ("New Russia") came from) or a part of Russia. Mostly protesters asked for federalization of Ukraine, with more rights given to the regional governments in terms of forming the legislation, language and social policy. Though separatist movement also had place. Ukrainian law enforcement was crippled by Euromaidan (because it was used against it, and there were a lot of purges afterwards), so government often used nationalists to suppress those protests. It all ended up in massacre of pro-Russian protesters in Odessa on May 2, 2014, which led to rapid increase of those who wanted to support separatists in Donbass (where armed clashes have already started) both in Russia and Russian-speaking parts of Ukraine.
I've actually always thought that if the leaders of Euromaidan used maximum effort to ensure both Russia itself and pro-Russian population within Ukraine that change of power won't affect internal and external relations in any way, all that had happend could have been avoided. But since right-wingers were large powerhouse that helped push Euromaidan to victory (I am talking about Oleg Tyagnibok and his Svoboda ("Freedom") party), it would probably be impossible. So instead we've got immediate cancellation of language law, threats from the leader of the Right Sector (Ukrainian nationalist organization) to send "friendship trains" (sarcastic name for groups of radical right-wingers whose purpose would be to suppress and intimidate local people and authorities) to Crimea, promises to "throw out Russian Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol by 2017" (naval base there wasn't Russian property, it was leased in 1992 for 25 years) and so on.
So it ended how it ended, and I firmly believe that Crimean referendum in 2014 wasn't even rigged, a lot of the Crimeans didn't feel themselves as true Ukrainians (separatist tensions were so strong there that after the fall of Soviet Union Crimea was the only region in Ukraine that was given the status of "autonomous republic" (even though Ukraine is not a federation). Same could be said for Donbass, and, probably, Kharkov. Other regions - not so much. That's some "russia today" explanation of history. 1) The language law you are referring to(so called "Kolisnichenko-Kivalov law") was the case of continuous scandals, disputes and even fights in parliament. This law eventually (in 2018) was admitted as anti-constitutional. Most people of russian-speaking region had never felt oppressed by the language, beliefs or nationality neither before 2012 nor after cancelation of this law, nor after russian annexation of Crimea and aggression on Donbass. Sure you could meet some marginals who said: "I don't want to read medicine instruction in ukrainian", or "I don't want to watch movies in ukrainian in cinema". 2) It was a Kremlin agenda and idea of federalization and making independent republics in the south-east of Ukraine (creating "Novorossiya" in the best scenario) and was actively sponsored. 3) All the resources were on the side of ruling at that time pro-president party "Partiya Regionov" (majority of them stayed in parliament after president fled (what purges are you talking about?) and accused him in all the "sins"). 4) The involvement of nationalists in dealing with pro-russian protests was meager, much more impact did "titushki" + Show Spoiler +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titushky and sometimes local police on the ani-maydan side. And it's very manipulative to blame "nationalists" just like euro-maydan activists in what happened in Odessa, stressing the outcome itself not mentioning the actions that took place before. 5) Actions in Luhansk and Donetsk were entirely planned and controlled by Kremlin with a help of local collaborators. 6) Right-wing party "Svoboda" held only 10% of the parliament seats and barely influenced on the situation. Nationalist organization "Pravyy sektor" denied the statements of its member Ihor Mosiychuk about "the trains of friendship". None of trains with nationalist were sent. 7) The referendum in Crimea was obviously faked because there are no fair elections in Russia. We surely can argue about the result but it's irrelevant in terms of norms and law. Nowadays (before the war), the vast majority of people still considered annexed Crimea and a part of Donbass as territory of Ukraine; they used to it and put up with the current situation where Ukraine wasn't able to take it back with military force. People freely communicated in whatever language they wanted no matter where - Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia or Uzhgorod. "Pravyy Sektor" almost disappeared from media space. Life was back to the "old" ways. Everything ruined on the 24th of february. Can confirm every single bit, that is exactly what I witnessed as well during last years. It was a great and detailed summary On April 29 2022 04:55 SC-Shield wrote:
Either distraction or Russia is all-in on this one by forcing others to help them against Ukraine. The latter doesn't add up as Belarus is not fighting yet. Rumour has it that Russia wants to declare victory on 9 May, so escalation is highly likely by then.
@Dav1oN how are you? Have you found a safe place in Ukraine? Long time no see, I hope you're alright! Hey mate, thank you for asking Yea, after a bunch of relocations (5 or 6) and with help/support of the company I worked with - we finally managed to find a quite place. It was hell of a ride. Although, I must admit the housing crisis affects the pricing incredibly, western Ukraine is overpriced at the moment. Having pets adds complexity for the searching, as not many are willing to rent the housing for the people with pets, and that's a shame. Irresponsible people won't evacuate pets from the other side of the country while fleeing, but the householders don't think this way for some reason. In general the renting price went up 3-4 times of what it was before the war. Maybe the situation will be more acceptable in a few weeks or a month since Kyiv residents are coming back to the capital cause it's relatively safe out there at the moment. But coming back to Kharkiv is still quite risky, at first the surrounding areas of the city must be liberated. Overall it's safer than it used to be, but some outer parts of the city is still getting shelled, so I hope that the residents will be as safe as possible meanwhile
I have read multiple commentators say that Putin found it a threat that Ukraine, a country Russians have traditionally looked down upon, was catching up and in some cases passing quality of life for the middle and lower classes and this was about knocking them back down. They were saying it was a threat to Putins power to have to many people asking why a country with so much less resources could do better than them.
Do you believe their is any truth to that?
Lately an average low and middle class citizens in Ukraine are having better standards of living in comparison to Russia due to the western course of development - that is correct, life was improving slowly but surely. We have to work harder and are having much less resources overall, but we are more efficient and less corrupt. From my POV everything you mentioned sounds correct. Great to hear from you again! Glad you were able to get to safety. Has there been any significant development on the Donbas frontlines in the last few days? Every source I've found paints it as either side making only modest gains. Also curious about the saboteur operations going on in Russia
Thank you! Was hell of a ride, never travelled so much across the country in a such short period of time.
Frankly I don't have much of info regarding Donbass axis, the biggest and latest news were already shared by the TLers in this topic it seems. Got some bits about Kharkiv only, lately the frequency of shelling dropped a bit, since Ukr forces liberated a bunch of surrounding towns and villages around the city in the northern & eastern directions. That is definitely some good news for the civil population. The city is trying to come back to normal life, that's a hard process since there is still a danger of rocket strikes, that's very scary.
Speaking of saboteur operation, I was wondering by myself what is happening. That's a confusing topic and I've read a bunch of different theories, but still it's unclear. Wide geography of those events does not make it easier. There is a chance that the big pictures consists of a few small parts, we should accept a possibility of a combination of false flag operations, special operation of Ukr forces (especially in the border regions), actions of the local Rus saboteurs who support so called "Free Russia" movement (white-blue-white flag, we have Rus people who fight for Ukr as a part of special foreign legion with the exactly the same flag) and even some instances of inner darwinism in the Rus police/army structures. In reality it's hard to point out who is responsible for what w/o any particular evidence, one may only speculate.
On May 02 2022 09:05 Ardias wrote:I've given my personal opinion regarding the subject below the chart, but since I'm a Russian orc, I'm not sure if it does matter, so please give me other objective criteria which I could look up. As for the oligarchs - both Russia and Ukraine have a lot of them. For Ukraine the following number was presented: "In total, the top 100 wealthiest business people in Ukraine control around $44,5 billion, according to Forbes,[8] which accounts for 27% of Ukrainian GDP in September, 2021.[9]" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_oligarchFor Russian oligarchs I've struggled to find a GDP-to-wealth comparison for the latter years, but could find a report from an older date: 'A 2013 report by Credit Suisse found that 35% of the wealth of Russia was owned by the wealthiest 110 individuals.[31]' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_oligarchsHigher percentage for us, but compined with overall higher Russian GDP per capita it should probably give the same result for an average Joe.
TL community is not like that. I appreciate you opinions even though I disagree with some of the statements, but that's completely normal. And I doubt that someone is willing to blame you for the actions of Rus officials or something like that. You are welcomed to join our conversations anytime and it's great to know what you think. What matters is that we are having a proper discussion and expressing our thoughts in a civilized manner. So let's keep it going this way!
Wealth comparison is a tricky question, my judgement was based on a combination of personal experience for the last decade plus what I managed to catch from some of the modern Rus influencers who travelled across the Russia (ex Varlamov, Lyadov + bunch of others). Honestly I was shocked by some of the depressed regions in Russia and what is happening in the cities outside of Moscow, SPB and the "Golden Ring" with some exceptions. Not even mentioning the villages. Conclusion I made was that the wealth distribution was much more even in Ukraine. Kyiv is probably the wealthiest, but the difference in wealth between Kyiv and Kharkiv is not as big as between Moscow and Yekaterinburg for example. Plus we don't really have depressed regions (if you do not consider LDNR) at this point, even the smallest villages usually have an access to gas, electrification, internet and got decent roads.
Ukraine is still far from perfection and from the Western standard of life, but we are trying hard to make it better day by day.
I agree with your statement that a big chunk of Ukr economy is in the grey area as we got many people who work abroad and sending their money to Ukraine, therefore such income is never considered in the financial reports for obvious reasons. Looking only at GDP numbers only won't give you a correct answer in this situation unfortunately.
What bothers me is that since 1991 Russia had extraordinary chance to become a legit superpower with developed economy including various production and backed by the huge amount of natural resources available across the country, the people's life in Russia could've been different, so much better with true democratic path. But no...People got fooled once again by "voting" for the the "strong rulers" from ex-KGB and soviet nomenklatura descendants who generally were uncapable of building or creating something for the good, they only know how to seize, bribe & destroy it seems.
On May 02 2022 21:49 Ardias wrote:
Though as the Ukrainians started to fiercly resist, amount of civilian casualities went up, that is true. But my point is that if Putin's objective was to kill as many Ukrainians (military or civilian) as possible - after two months Kharkov would be already flattened without any building left in one piece.
I disagree and see it differently. Thanks to the fierce resistance Kharkiv is not as devastated as Mariupol. The city itself is few times bigger and had a pop at least 3 times bigger. But still, the district Saltovka which is situated in the north-east is pretty much leveled down. There is a clear correlation between the frequency of artillery shelling of the city with how much of surrounding towns and villages in Kharkiv were liberated lately in the north-east axis towards Belgorod. Shelling of the civil areas of the city was happening constantly from 24th of Feb, and I think the reason was to make us generally afraid, to kill as much innocents as possible so the army and city officials would surrender. The result was the opposite.
Do you remember explosions of civil apartments in Moscow and other Rus cities early in 2000? Bags with "sugar", Litvanenko case? Beslan? Kursk submarine? I was wondering what makes you think kremlin cares about civil casualties of the neighboring country when it does not care about own citizens to start with?
Okay, maybe, but only maybe the initial objective was to make everything as bloodless as possible, but I can hardly accept this idea at the moment, the evidence just does not add up.
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The Estonian intelligence operative "Karl" has another thread, courtesy of Micahel Weiss and Holger Roonemaa.
Important takeaways: Russia's March 18th attack in the Donbas is faltering.
The UA counter-attack has started near Kharkiv but it probably won't escalate quickly.
Putin might order a general mobilization or a tactical nuke, but those are more likely to fail and backfire on him.
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The legendary truck guy is back, now uncovering the fact that Russian troops apparently need to use cold war era tyres due to shortages.
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Germany says sanctions will only be lifted if Russia withdrawals from Ukraine territory. Says more sanctions to come.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock made clear that sanctions against Russia will only be lifted after a complete withdrawal of its troops from Ukrainian territory, including the eastern Donbas region, another sign the penalties are set to stay for a prolonged period.
“It’s important that we can withstand every sanction that we introduce, if necessary, for years,” Baerbock told public broadcaster ARD on Sunday. “We will only lift these sanctions once the Russian troops have left.”
Notably, Baerbock included Crimea as an area that Russian troops would need to pull out from in order to get sanctions removed. Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea in 2014.
Baerbock’s warning comes as the European Union prepares a sixth package of sanctions that will include a proposal to ban Russian oil by the end of the year, according to people familiar with the matter. A decision on the details of the new measures could come as soon as this week.
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said last week that Berlin wouldn’t stand in the way of an oil embargo, but expressed skepticism that it’s the most effective means of damaging Putin
Baerbock, the former Green party co-leader, also denied that Germany’s decision to send tanks to Ukraine has increased the risk of nuclear war.
“That’s the least we can do now,” Baerbock said of the plan to now deliver 50 Gepard tanks. Russia should never be able again to wage a war in violation of international law, she added.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz had warned previously that sending heavy weapons would increase the threat of nuclear war with Russia, without saying how. A few days later, he changed tack and approved the delivery of the tanks.
Source
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I'm translating a Facebook update from Rainer Saks (ex-head of Estonian intelligence and ex-chancellor for the Estonian foreign ministry). He's currently working on cyber defence, together with UA. He posts these every day, but this one is particularly good.
2nd of May was the quietest day of the new RU surge. There was an artillery duel, and some sluggish intelligence battles, but no real breakthrough attempts. - Near Harkiv the battle lines remain the same. The news about UA pushing RU 40km away was a multiple translation error. It's correct that UA has pushed RU troops 40km in some directions, but on the eastern side, RU artillery can still hit that side of the city. The artillery strikes are much scarcer compared to what was previously the case. Hopefully, UA will fix that soon. The problem is the minefields that RU troops have broadly laid to defend their positions. - Izyum is quiet as expected. After C2 destruction RU is restoring leadership. UA has been attacking troop congregation spots on the RU side quite well. Some units (unclear whether RU or UA) are being brought as reinforcement. - Donbas was limited to artillery fire. Mariupol evacuation is very difficult, too soon to comment on the results. - In the south, RU is still trying to maneuver to restore attack capability. UA has been stopping this well, but they have lost initiative near Kherson. This might be intentional not to torpedo the evacuation of Mariupol. - The plan to destabilize Odessa has failed. As assumed, the city was attacked with rockets. Also, they attacked the bridge going from Odessa to Romania (Zatoka). This will not impact UA. There's also a show of escalation in Transnistria. Fortunately, Moldova kept its cool and laughed at these attempts. But psychological warfare continues in the region. There's a new topic related to the 9th of May - general mobilization. It's not entirely impossible. But we can assess this only a few days prior by seeing whether RU state structures begin preparation or not. I think the 9th of May isn't important for the Russian leadership. It's more of an idefix for Western analysts. On the other hand, RU needs to make decisions if they want to continue the war. At the end of this week, we'll know whether the surge in the Donbas provides any local gains at all. In any case, reserves will run out by that time. They'll be out of men and machines (not money). Russian troop losses have been between 70-80k (killed, wounded, injured, deserters, etc). That's about 40% of the troops amassed against UA. Current loss rates are a BTG a day of men, and 2 BTG's worth of equipment a day. It makes sense that they're running out of reserves. Russia would need to mobilize at least 60k to keep current units in the fight. If RU wants to actively attack and subjugate UA, they'd need 100k of high-quality fighters. It's now clear that recruiting volunteers has failed. So there are two possibilities: - end the war - general or partial mobilization The problem with general mobilization is that it's time-consuming, complex, and can fail. Partial mobilization is more believable. The largest challenge is training and unit formation with conscripts. There's a lack of officers and specialists. Although, now it seems that equipment shortages will be the greatest challenge. RU losses in terms of equipment, especially armor, seem proportionally greater than in manpower. Yesterday, there was a rumour that in Voronez, 17 tanks and 60 IFVs were taken out of storage and sent to UA. That's been roughly what RU has been losing per day. So, equipment meant for those being mobilized is already being sent to UA (this is great news for UA). The equipment in storage hasn't been modernized - it's outdated and of poor quality. To summarize, by declaring general mobilization on the 9th of May, such troops would not reach battle lines before autumn. There's a theoretical possibility that RU troops can defend until then. But it seems like RU will need a pause, i.e., a ceasefire. An important message arrived from Scholz - sanction relief won't be discussed before there's a ceasefire and UA territorial integrity has been restored. Not a word about Donbas or Crimea. This was a very good statement. + Show Spoiler +
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03. mai kokkuvõte eelneva päeva kohta - oli venelaste suure pealetungi kõige vaiksem päev. Toimus suurtükväe duell ja mõned loiumad luurelahingud, aga reaalselt läbimurdekatseid ei tehtud.
- Harkivi juures rindejoon sama, kuigi initsiatiiv ikkagi Ukrainal. Täna hommikul kõlanud uudis, nagu oleks ukrainlased eile venelasi siin 40 km ida poole surunud ei ole täpne. Tegemist on mitmekordses tõlkes väändunud infoga. Õige oleks, et viimase nädala jooksul on Ukraina mõnes piirkonnas vene üksuseid umbes 40 km ida poole surunud, kuid ühes lõigus paiknevad vene üksused ikkagi veel Harkivile nii lähedal, et ulatuvad suurtükkidest linna idarajoone tulistama. Mida ka igapäev tehakse, kuigi väga hõredalt võrreldes varasemaga. Loodetavasti klaarivad ukrainlased selle probleemi varsti ära. Probleemiks on miiniväljad, mida vene üksused on laialdaselt oma positisoonide kaitsmiseks rajanud.
- Izjumi juures on ootuspärane vaikus - peale staapide hävimist taastatakse oma juhtimisvõimet. Ukrainlased on päris hästi vene üksuste koondumisalasid rünnanud. Siia piirkonda tuuakse veel ka mingit sorti üksuseid täienduseks.
- Donbassis piirduti suurtükitulega. Mariupoli evakueerimine toimub suurte raskustega, vara veel tulemustest rääkida
- Lõunarindel üritab ka vene pool manööverdada, et ründevõimekust taastada. Ukrainlased on seda küll hästi takistanud, aga nad on kaotanud ka Hersoni juures initsiatiivi. Võib olla on see ka Ukraina teadlik otsus, et mitte torpedeerida Mariupoli evakuatsiooni.
- Odessas vene pool olukorda destabiliseerida ei suutnud. Nagu eeldatud, rünnati linna rakettidega. Lisaks rünnati uuesti Odessast Rumeenia suunas viivat Zatoka silda. Kokkuvõttes ei mõjuta see Ukraina olukorda kuigivõrd. Samuti etendatakse eskalatsiooni ka Transnistrijas. Õnneks oli Molodova valitsus eile külmavereline ja naeris selle ähvarduse välja. Aga psüholoogiline sõda seal kindlasti jätkub.
Nüüdseks on seoses 9 maiga leitud uus teema, mida pumbata - Putin kuulutavat sellel päeval välja sõja Ukrainale ja üldmobilisatsiooni.
Ei ole muidugi midagi võimatut. Aga seda saame hinnata alles mõned päevad enne, et kas riiklikud struktuurid valmistavad seda sammu ette või mitte. Ma arvan, et see 9 mai ei ole vene juhtkonna jaoks nii oluline päev, et kogu planeerimine käib selle päeva ümber. Pigem on muutunud see väikeseks probleemiks välismaiste analüütikute peades. Teistpidi aga oleks venemaal vaja mingeid otsuseid teha, kui tahetakse sõda jätkata. Selle nädala lõpuks on näha, kas pealetung Donbassis annab kasvõi mingisugust lokaalset edu venemaa jaoks. Igal juhul saavad reservid selleks ajaks otsa. Otsa lõpevad nii mehed, kui tehnika (mitte raha)
Vene üksuste kaotused sõja algusest saadik on vahemikus 70 000 - 80 000 meest (langenud+haavatud+vigastatud+laiali jooksnud jne).
See on ca 40% Ukraina vastu koondatud vägedest. Kaotused praegu on üle1 PTG päevas, tehnika osas 2PTG päevas. On täeisti loogiline, et reservid on otsas.
Venemaal oleks vaja mobiliseerida vähemalt 60 000 meest et praeguseid üksuseid võitlusvõimelisena hoida . Kui soovida aktiivselt rünnata ja Ukraina alistada, tuleks värvata üle 100 000 kõrgekvaliteedilist võitlejat, Praeguseks on selge, et vabatahtlike värbamine kukkus läbi. Seega on kaks võimalust
- sõda lõpetada
- üritada läbi viia mingikujuline osaline või täielik mobilisatsioon
Üldmobilisatsiooni suur probleem on, et see võtab väga kaua aega, on keeruline ja võib läbi kukkuda. Osaline mobilisatsioon oleks usutavam.
Kõige suurem väljakutse on mobiliseeritute koondamine, väljaõpe ja üksuste moodustamine. Puudu on nii ohvitseridest, kui ka vajalikest spetsialistidest. Nüüdseks tundub aga, et kõige suurem väljakutse on hoopis tehnika. Vene üksuste kaotused tehnika osas, ertit soomustehnika osas tunduvad proportsionaalselt veelgi suuremad, kui elavjõu omad. Eile levis Ukrainas uudis, et kusagil Voroneži hoiualal võeti välja 17 tanki ja 60 jalaväe lahingmasinat, et saata Ukrainasse. See on praegustes lahingutes olnud vene poole ühe päeva kaotuste norm. Tegelikult on siis tehnika, mis on mõeldud mobiliseeritute relvatamiseks juba enne mobilisatsiooni kasutusele võetud. (see on muidugi väga hea uudis Ukraina jaoks). Lisaks on seal hoitav tehnika moderniseerimata - ehk väga vanamoodne ja kehva kvaliteediga.
Sõnaga - 9 mai üldmobilisatsiooni välja kuulutades, ei jõuaks selliselt moodustatud üksused rindele enne sügist. Kaitses muidugi oleks teoreetiline võimalus nii kaua vastu pidada. Üha rohkem tundub aga, et venemaa vajab pausi, ehk relvarahu.
Oluline uudis tuli nüüd ka lõpuks Saksamaa kantslerilt - venemaa vastaseid sanktsioonide kaotamist hakatakse arutama alles siis, kui Ukrainaga on tehtud relvarahu ja Ukraina territoriaalne terviklikkus on taastatud. Ei sõnagi Donbassist või Krimist. See oli väga hea avaldus.
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On May 02 2022 23:54 xa2652 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 02 2022 23:26 JimmiC wrote:On May 02 2022 23:16 xa2652 wrote:You can call anyone neo-nazi but you need to have actual evidence to show that. I do not see anything nazi on him, the article calling him neo-nazi does not have anything to back this claim up. However, for Azovs you can see clearly the wolfsangel on their uniform. Just google Nazi Russia or Russian Nazi and you can find all sorts of images. There has even been esports people and athletes banned for making the salutes. It is a stupid argument and given the low post count and it all being here, being pretty darn dumb, and oh so edge makes it very likely you are a PBU. Hope this was "fun"? Those that you are talking about are individuals, for Ukraine it's embracement on state level. Anyway, I think we all agree that Ukraine contain nazis, and the call by Putin to denazify isn't that out of nowhere right?
No, we very much do not. Actually I doubt anyone here agrees with you on that.
A first step for that would be to produce proof for the allegation that Ukrainian nazis (unlike their Russian counter parts) are embraced at the state level. I am not holding my breath though.
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Will be interesting to see how Israel reacts, not only diplomatically but also on a foreign policy side.
Russia's foreign ministry accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, further escalating a row which began when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins.
Israel lambasted Lavrov on Monday, saying his claim – made when talking about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who is Jewish – was an "unforgivable" falsehood that debased the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust.
Leaders from several Western nations denounced Lavrov's comments and Zelenskyy accused Russia of having forgotten the lessons of World War Two.
The Russian ministry said in a statement that Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's comments were "anti-historical" and "explaining to a large extent why the current Israeli government supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv".
Moscow reiterated Lavrov's point that Zelenskyy's Jewish origins did not preclude Ukraine from being run by neo-Nazis.
"Antisemitism in everyday life and in politics is not stopped and is on the contrary nurtured (in Ukraine)," it said in a statement.
Lavrov made the Hitler assertion on Italian television on Sunday when he was asked why Russia said it needed to "denazify" Ukraine if the country's own president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was himself Jewish.
Israel has expressed support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. But wary of damaging relations with Russia, a power broker in neighboring Syria, it initially avoided direct criticism of Moscow and has not enforced formal sanctions on Russian oligarchs.
However, ties have grown more strained, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine.
Source
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In the case of Lapid it's pot calling the kettle black. He accused Poles of running the concentration camps. It's a travesty that a piece of shit like that is a MFA in Israel.
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On May 03 2022 22:31 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Will be interesting to see how Israel reacts, not only diplomatically but also on a foreign policy side. Show nested quote +Russia's foreign ministry accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, further escalating a row which began when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins.
Israel lambasted Lavrov on Monday, saying his claim – made when talking about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy who is Jewish – was an "unforgivable" falsehood that debased the horrors of the Nazi Holocaust.
Leaders from several Western nations denounced Lavrov's comments and Zelenskyy accused Russia of having forgotten the lessons of World War Two.
The Russian ministry said in a statement that Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid's comments were "anti-historical" and "explaining to a large extent why the current Israeli government supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv".
Moscow reiterated Lavrov's point that Zelenskyy's Jewish origins did not preclude Ukraine from being run by neo-Nazis.
"Antisemitism in everyday life and in politics is not stopped and is on the contrary nurtured (in Ukraine)," it said in a statement.
Lavrov made the Hitler assertion on Italian television on Sunday when he was asked why Russia said it needed to "denazify" Ukraine if the country's own president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, was himself Jewish.
Israel has expressed support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion in February. But wary of damaging relations with Russia, a power broker in neighboring Syria, it initially avoided direct criticism of Moscow and has not enforced formal sanctions on Russian oligarchs.
However, ties have grown more strained, with Lapid last month accusing Russia of committing war crimes in Ukraine. Source
Didn't take long. Today's Jerusalem Post:
Israel to increase military, civilian aid to Ukraine - report While the aid increase would be a “substantial step,” the report said it will be more symbolic — no offensive weapons will be delivered. Israel was among a total of 43 countries – 29 NATO members and 14 non-NATO members – that attended the summit in Germany and Shalom’s participation in the summit can be viewed as a possible shift in stance by Israel, which has been attempting to preserve its close ties with Russia. Two weeks ago, Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced that Israel would be sending protective vests and helmets to rescue and emergency services. The shipment – an apparent boost of aid following criticism that Israel was not providing enough aid to Ukraine – was not for the Ukrainian military. As part of Israel’s aid to Ukraine, Jerusalem also set up a field hospital in the city of Lviv and donated several armored and 4x4 ambulances by Magen David Adom rescue services. Source
Furthermore
There's no ban on Estonia giving Israeli weapons to Ukraine - Estonian FM Estonia has bought a lot of weapons from Israel in the past year, including more than 500 Spike anti-tank missiles and the Blue Spear missile system for coastal defense. Estonia, a small Baltic state bordering Russia, has also pledged €220 million in military aid to war-torn Ukraine in recent months. None of the weapons transferred to Ukraine are known to be Israeli thus far. But Estonian Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets said Jerusalem has not blocked Tallinn from giving Israeli arms to Ukraine, contrary to reports published earlier this year. “I am not aware of any obstacles at the moment,” Liimets said, adding that if there was such a ban, she would have raised it in her meetings with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gantz on Monday. “So far, we have gotten permission from all countries of origin for what we wanted to donate.” Source
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United States41976 Posts
Russia with another dramatic own goal. If I were a Russian with a family member in the armed forces I would be unimpressed with how desperately my government was trying to get its military killed.
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On May 04 2022 00:09 KwarK wrote:
Russia with another dramatic own goal. If I were a Russian with a family member in the armed forces I would be unimpressed with how desperately my government was trying to get its military killed.
Yep, Putin is the greatest gift to EU and NATO. Achieving what no one else could:
- even more unity within the EU
- even more unity within NATO & partners
- gas diversification
- a little more spending on defense, fight against disinformation
A true leader. One may think he is a double agent 
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User was warned for this post
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I think People from eastern Europe can call Russians orcs because you know impending war crimes but outside of that its kinda offensive that some one from USA whos got little more to fear than nuclear war being a possibility to say it.
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Lviv reports about multiple missile strikes on electric infrastructure, happened in early evening. The city is partially w/o electricity atm as two power substations were damaged.
Also, based on media reports a bunch of railway stations/infrastructure spots across central and western Ukraine were severely damaged by the missiles.
In Kharkiv today the Gorky park and Dynamo stadium were shelled by artillery, both places are very close to the geographical center of the city. These are purely civilian locations :/ The park is a wonderful place where people with kids loved to spent their time playing, working out and just chilling.
Oh gosh, I'm boiling inside, so much destruction, so many casualties, and for what?!
At the same time I hope none of you guys will ever experience the same as we do in Ukraine at the moment -.-
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On May 04 2022 04:14 Sermokala wrote:
I think People from eastern Europe can call Russians orcs because you know impending war crimes but outside of that its kinda offensive that some one from USA whos got little more to fear than nuclear war being a possibility to say it.
Well, I'd not call Russians orcs, but let's say I consider supplied weapons from NATO to Ukraine as a small retribution also for 1944 when Soviet army invaded eastern Europe. I watch "1420" youtube channel where they interview Russians, so my impression is that regular Russians are 1) brainwashed, 2) apolitical which is just as bad because they don't fight the system out of fear or lack of interest or 3) want to move out of Russia at some point, though I'm not sure what percentage of population of that is. It doesn't look like there is any strong movement locally to change things for the better.
On another note, after Kremlin's failed attempt to decapitate Kyev, it looks to me that they want to achieve 2 goals from now on 1) take eastern & southern Ukraine and 2) inflict as much damage as possible on the rest of Ukraine. Possibly to show people that their side is "the best side" (not in ruins). I think they've realised they cannot persuade western Ukraine anymore if map of voting pattern that I've seen is correct (the further west you go, the less pro-Russia Ukrainians you see). Of course, I could be totally wrong on this one but it's my 2 cents.
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Dehumanisation is always offensive. By the logic of that tweet, the russian posters in this forum are responsible for missiles shelling Ukraine.
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Nice try, but as I said in my post, I completely understand someone from ukraine, or having close ties to it, being more emotional about this and not caring about common decency.
On May 04 2022 05:27 Broetchenholer wrote:
Dehumanisation is always offensive. By the logic of that tweet, the russian posters in this forum are responsible for missiles shelling Ukraine.
Well, you gotta cut the person that is at the receiving end of those missiles some slack though.
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Sure, i can understand that people experiencing teribble injustice are not always logical and are emotional. Nevertheless, we don't allow those people more due to that. I am not staying out of jail if i was rightfully angry and then commited a crime. And the people on this forum, who are just bystanders, really have no excuse.
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So Scholz and his party are in power, right? So only the opposition parties are the force between getting Ukraine armaments etc. and Scholz stopping them?
German opposition leader Friedrich Merz had an hour-long meeting with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Tuesday, amid a background of growing tension between the governments in Berlin and Kyiv.
The talk went “exceptionally well”, Merz’s spokesman later wrote on Twitter.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has made clear that he won’t travel to the Ukraine capital after German President Frank Walter Steinmeier’s trip was canceled at the last minute by Ukraine officials two weeks ago. Zelenskiy has been critical of Steinmeier, who used to be a close ally of former SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, for his friendly relationship with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in the past.
Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andrej Melnyk, has criticized Scholz’s decision not to travel to Kyiv. He’s repeatedly called on Germany to send more heavy weapons to Ukraine and to stop all energy imports from Russia. Last week, Scholz decided in a surprise move to send 50 Gepard tanks. He also plans to offer the Ukraine army seven heavy artillery systems.
Merz arrived on a night train in Kyiv Tuesday morning. Despite security warnings from German authorities, he traveled without any personal protection. His spokesman said he’ll inform Scholz about the details of his discussions with Zelenskiy.
Source
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/BMZtYFu.jpg)
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