On November 04 2020 14:17 DropBear wrote: As a non American who doesn't really understand what's going on, is there a clear leader yet or are things still up in the air?
Still up in the air and too close to call.
I'm not from the US but why are you guys saying it's close? Cause from the outside it doesn't seem that way.
The maps/results so far have Biden literally 100 points above Trump, and everything I read/have heard/wacthes says that the mail voting that will come in the upcoming days will favor Biden.
So Biden is ahead in the same-day voting and in expected to be ahead in the voting that will be revieced in the upcoming days.
How is that close?
I see Trump has more states, but the states he has are worth less (which is a stupid system, but whatever). As well as more actual votes, but again that is worthless (which is also stupid, but it would be funny if Trump loses the same way he had won against Hilary).
AP maps aren't updated properly, its more like 230-220 give or take atm. It falls to a couple of states trump is up 15% in not including main in ballots, so yes, its very close
On November 04 2020 14:28 FlaShFTW wrote: Looks like Republicans will barely hold the Senate. It will be 48-51 in favor of Republicans and one special election seat to be filled in Georgia.
On November 04 2020 14:12 Shingi11 wrote: So as us on left have dreams shattered about a big biden the win, the question becomes how do we move forward no matter who wins. As they elections has shown we split right down the middle and are so very divided. There are very few issues where we are even close to being in agreement on. Both side think the other is crazy. We are tearing our self apart and i see no way back. What common ground is there to find when we are opposite sides of an ocean.
That's been an ongoing question for awhile now. I think the reason people believe crazy things is because there is so little journalistic integrity. We can't even agree upon facts, much less all the opinions and inferences that rely upon them. And education of course too but that will take decades to correct. But reforms in either area seem to require a concerted, unified effort - the very thing we are lacking and trying to achieve. tl;dr it seems pretty hopeless.
On November 04 2020 14:17 DropBear wrote: As a non American who doesn't really understand what's going on, is there a clear leader yet or are things still up in the air?
Still up in the air and too close to call.
I'm not from the US but why are you guys saying it's close? Cause from the outside it doesn't seem that way.
The maps/results so far have Biden literally 100 points above Trump, and everything I read/have heard/wacthes says that the mail voting that will come in the upcoming days will favor Biden.
So Biden is ahead in the same-day voting and in expected to be ahead in the voting that will be revieced in the upcoming days.
How is that close?
I see Trump has more states, but the states he has are worth less (which is a stupid system, but whatever). As well as more actual votes, but again that is worthless (which is also stupid, but it would be funny if Trump loses the same way he had won against Hilary).
Biden will very immediately win many electoral votes from safe states that include California, New York, Massachusetts, and others, making reaching 200 points a very easy affair. Trump gets a few less of those, but many of the heavy hitters like Texas are very much out of reach for Biden unless there's a blowout in Biden's favor. Add that to the couple of swing states Trump won, and he's going to be in the 200s soon enough.
What it really comes down to at this point is the couple of states that could put either candidate over the 270 line, which at this point are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. There's about 100 electoral votes at play there, and all of those states are too close to call at this point.
Biden leads in the states where mail-in votes were counted and reported first, Trump in the states where in-person votes were counted first. Overall Biden is probably more favored than not to win, but he has to win a majority of those five states at play to get to 270. At this point they could all go either way.
On November 04 2020 14:28 FlaShFTW wrote: Looks like Republicans will barely hold the Senate. It will be 48-51 in favor of Republicans and one special election seat to be filled in Georgia.
The only way for me to think Democrats wouldn't have been blown out of the water by Republicans were it not for covid is to assume it had no significant negative effect on Trump's performance tonight.
On November 04 2020 14:12 Shingi11 wrote: So as us on left have dreams shattered about a big biden the win, the question becomes how do we move forward no matter who wins. As they elections has shown we split right down the middle and are so very divided. There are very few issues where we are even close to being in agreement on. Both side think the other is crazy. We are tearing our self apart and i see no way back. What common ground is there to find when we are opposite sides of an ocean.
That's been an ongoing question for awhile now. I think the reason people believe crazy things is because there is so little journalistic integrity. We can't even agree upon facts, much less all the opinions and inferences that rely upon them. And education of course too but that will take decades to correct. But reforms in either area seem to require a concerted, unified effort - the very thing we are lacking and trying to correct. tl;dr it seems pretty hopeless.
Maybe the government can just do nothing for four years and we can call it a day.
Well at least with Texas staying red I get 15 bucks. Still, I'd rather have paid the 20 than this happening. Bleah.
Wisconsin is looking more and more tedious from my view. Brown County is a big one, 55% reporting and Trump won this by 11% in 2016, up 15% right now. He's actually managed to win by bigger margins this time around. I don't think there's enough of an urban vote left for Biden in Milwaukee
On November 04 2020 14:12 Shingi11 wrote: So as us on left have dreams shattered about a big biden the win, the question becomes how do we move forward no matter who wins. As they elections has shown we split right down the middle and are so very divided. There are very few issues where we are even close to being in agreement on. Both side think the other is crazy. We are tearing our self apart and i see no way back. What common ground is there to find when we are opposite sides of an ocean.
That's been an ongoing question for awhile now. I think the reason people believe crazy things is because there is so little journalistic integrity. We can't even agree upon facts, much less all the opinions and inferences that rely upon them. And education of course too but that will take decades to correct. But reforms in either area seem to require a concerted, unified effort - the very thing we are lacking and trying to correct. tl;dr it seems pretty hopeless.
Maybe the government can just do nothing for four years and we can call it a day.
On November 04 2020 14:17 DropBear wrote: As a non American who doesn't really understand what's going on, is there a clear leader yet or are things still up in the air?
Still up in the air and too close to call.
I'm not from the US but why are you guys saying it's close? Cause from the outside it doesn't seem that way.
The maps/results so far have Biden literally 100 points above Trump, and everything I read/have heard/wacthes says that the mail voting that will come in the upcoming days will favor Biden.
So Biden is ahead in the same-day voting and in expected to be ahead in the voting that will be revieced in the upcoming days.
How is that close?
I see Trump has more states, but the states he has are worth less (which is a stupid system, but whatever). As well as more actual votes, but again that is worthless (which is also stupid, but it would be funny if Trump loses the same way he had won against Hilary).
Biden will very immediately win many electoral votes from safe states that include California, New York, Massachusetts, and others, making reaching 200 points a very easy affair. Trump gets a few less of those, but many of the heavy hitters like Texas are very much out of reach for Biden unless there's a blowout in Biden's favor. Add that to the couple of swing states Trump won, and he's going to be in the 200s soon enough.
What it really comes down to at this point is the couple of states that could put either candidate over the 270 line, which at this point are Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. There's about 100 electoral votes at play there, and all of those states are too close to call at this point.
Biden leads in the states where mail-in votes were counted and reported first, Trump in the states where in-person votes were counted first. Overall Biden is probably more favored than not to win, but he has to win a majority of those five states at play to get to 270. At this point they could all go either way.
There's also North Carolina. At ~283K votes outstanding and a current 80K vote lead for Trump (at least on ABC), they will probably hold out until mail-ins have been fully processed. It's somewhere between Georgia and Arizona as far as odds of Biden getting an eventual victory there goes I think (the NYT needle was very bullish on Trump there but they had some input errors).
Nevada early results in the rural areas have pointed to much closer election. Trump has bigger leads in those rural counties than 2016 where Clinton only won the state by 2.4%. If Biden loses Nevada, he really needs to win Georgia to make up for it.
EPT
