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On March 22 2020 20:50 Silvanel wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2020 19:28 DucK- wrote:On March 22 2020 08:01 Vivax wrote:On March 22 2020 07:53 TT1 wrote:On March 22 2020 07:40 SC-Shield wrote:On March 22 2020 07:34 GreenHorizons wrote:On March 22 2020 07:29 SC-Shield wrote:On March 22 2020 06:31 Nevuk wrote:
The US almost certainly already has the most cases in the World, just the worst testing. We'll know for absolutely certain when death rates start spiking in a week or so. It probably has to do with Trump's careless attitude... Wasn't just Trump, despite having the first case in the US, Washington took weeks to pull it's ish together and start kinda taking it seriously. Traffic when I'm commuting is only moderately lighter and lots of parking lots still have cars in them despite not striking me as essential business. "Took weeks" sounds like too late already, hence my point. China, South Korea and others are successful because they acted quickly.  China locked everyone in for over a month, literally. If we can't last 1-2 months of a "light" quarantine.. that would say a lot about our society relative to the Asian countries. The main reason why they managed to control the virus over there (Japan, S. Korea, Singapore etc.) is because they actually have discipline and listen to authoritative figures. Japan has a deeply ingrained culture of social cohesion. Singapore is nicely conform and all but they have punishments in place that I certainly don't want around here. Don't know much about South Korea. Either way I don't like that you are generalizing and saying we have this in the west because peeps were lazy and nonchalant. The reason we have this is imo because leadership reacted too late, and then reacted too harshly, so we're going into a scenario where supplies are hard to find, and you can bet that every newspaper and every politician will be saying "it wasn't us, it was the virus". And it will have worse consequences than the virus itself imo. Either way my presumable infection seems to have passed without a trace by now, might get tested next week. The "unpleasant tearing feeling in the lungs" described it rather well for me. Actually in Singapore, the government tells us to social distancing etc but on the ground I would say we're not fully practising it. Many still have gatherings, go to parks etc. Schools and businesses are still open. I'd say for us, what's was crucial was not so much the citizens complying with government's advisory, but the actual actions of the government. 1. Extensive contact tracing 2. Very early border controls 3. Quarantine measures for suspected cases, close contacts or overseas visitors 4. Fairly easy access to testing (and free) And to ensure people actually adhere to these measures, penalties are in place for those who breach it. 1. A Wuhan traveller who had the virus and recovered here (one of our first few cases) was criminally charged for lying (not forgetting, but actual lies) about her movements. 2. A permanent resident had his permanent residency revoked and forever banned from returning to Singapore for breaching the quarantine. 3. About 100 foreign labourers (usually construction industry) had their permits revoked and permanently banned from working here (I'd say we pay much higher and better welfare than neighbouring countries so it's a big opportunity loss). 4. The employers guilty of making them work during this period also had their access to these workers very much restricted. Mind you most of our hard/dirty labour here are done by foreigners because we Singaporeans think these jobs are beneath us and too low pay. So basically these companies are fucked finding new labour. Yea we have plenty of rubbish laws that the west like to laugh at (chewing gum fines, can't buy alcohol after 10pm from stores, gay sex is criminalised etc), but even then many of these laws are not even enforced at all. But when it comes to certain issues like this, the government means business and takes this super seriously. In my opinion Singapore is able to administer effectively because its small. Its smaller than Berlin itself both in area and populace. The size is in my opinion much bigger factor than any cultural trait.
Yea size is a probably one of the biggest factor that makes it easier for us, and also that makes our solution not applicable to many other countries. It's a bit of a discredit though, because I do think there are some things the world can learn from us.
1. Acknowledging the possible threat very early
2. Being prepared well before the virus even existed
3. Taking decisive and clear actions
I don't think I saw any other countries being as well prepared as us, many even denied this threat existed until its now so overblown. Basically whatever we're doing now is pretty much SOP planned after Sars days. No sugarcoating the situation, and just tackling the problem head on.
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I just have a constant feeling of dread in the back of my mind now, it's awful.You keep your mind off of the virus for most of the day, then see new numbers, and it's always worse, and the feeling is instantly back. I wish I could just be convinced that it would all be better in two months so you can just have the weather the storm mentality, but I just don't see how it will be better.
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On March 23 2020 01:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
I just have a constant feeling of dread in the back of my mind now, it's awful.You keep your mind off of the virus for most of the day, then see new numbers, and it's always worse, and the feeling is instantly back. I wish I could just be convinced that it would all be better in two months so you can just have the weather the storm mentality, but I just don't see how it will be better.
Same. I kind of wish I didn't take mathematical modeling in undergrad. Infection models are really, really reliable. The US is basically a lost cause at this point. Its really creepy knowing how many people are going to die.
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On March 23 2020 01:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
I just have a constant feeling of dread in the back of my mind now, it's awful.You keep your mind off of the virus for most of the day, then see new numbers, and it's always worse, and the feeling is instantly back. I wish I could just be convinced that it would all be better in two months so you can just have the weather the storm mentality, but I just don't see how it will be better.
I don't care much about this virus since I'm well outside the risk group, so I guess carelessness helps to keep mind calm.
I'm also relaxed by the fact that humanity has survived much more dangerous diseases such as the Black Death (Plague), Spanish Flu, etc.
Other than that, there is possibly a rare but not discussed symptom from this coronavirus - loss of taste or smell. However, it's not proved yet, hence I'm not going to post source until confirmed.
Edit: Italy is at 59k cases now. I guess by Wednesday or Thursday they will have surpassed China.
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My school has gone back on that promise to keep campus open, and is now requiring all students to move out or request continued housing, shutting down all dining halls except one, etc. Additionally, two cases were confirmed in university employees after that announcement, which is helping to build fear. Almost all of those positives about the esports club are gone besides the purely online portion, so I'm no longer allowed to host those events; not sure that's a bad thing, though.
Also watched an interview of Dr. Fauci this morning, the reporter was asking loaded questions to make viewers scared. Normally, I would be disgusted by that, but I also know that not everyone is taking this seriously and still going to parties and such, so it doesn't feel as bad.
Edit: my dad also finally agreed to stop going in to work after a week of going in while being given the option to go home, so that's good. He hates working from home and said that the office was almost completely empty, but he understands the seriousness of the shelter in place order for our state.
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On March 23 2020 01:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
I just have a constant feeling of dread in the back of my mind now, it's awful.You keep your mind off of the virus for most of the day, then see new numbers, and it's always worse, and the feeling is instantly back. I wish I could just be convinced that it would all be better in two months so you can just have the weather the storm mentality, but I just don't see how it will be better.
It's not going to be over in two months. At best we'll be over the first wave of infections, but we'll probably have a second and third wave before we have a deployed vaccine that can really bring this down to a manageable level. This is probably one of those rare situations where the "worst case scenario" isn't far from the actual case. Best way forward is, frankly, just to survive and come to terms with this as a longer-term risk.
Some silver lining, though: Italy just reported their numbers, and they're slightly better. About a week from now we will see if it all actually worked.
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My wife (in daycare) has one coworker who is in quarantine, and two more who have fevers. The two who have fevers are ones who work in rooms she has worked in (they haven't been tested). So I'd say there's a good chance I wind up getting it in the next week or two.
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I'm imaging that the USA started testing more? A shit ton of new cases already today, +12.5k.... that's double of the highest increase of Italy.
edit: They (worldometers.info) changed it back to 7.8k, probably typed a wrong number.
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37043 Posts
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Bulgaria in numbers
+ Show Spoiler +
8 March - 4 cases
10 March - +2 cases
11 March - +1 case and one death
12 March - +16 cases
13 March - +7 cases
14 March - +10 cases and 2nd death
15 March - +8 cases
16 March - +11 cases
17 March - +19 cases
18 March - +11 cases
19 March - +18 cases and 3rd death
20 March - +17 cases
21 March - +46 cases
22 March - +22 cases
And here is a quick plot which shows growth of new cases:
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/8fLk7MN.png)
Source is a famous local news website, so it's pointless to post something that isn't in English.
Edit: Maybe Wikipedia is a good alternative.
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On March 23 2020 01:56 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
I just have a constant feeling of dread in the back of my mind now, it's awful.You keep your mind off of the virus for most of the day, then see new numbers, and it's always worse, and the feeling is instantly back. I wish I could just be convinced that it would all be better in two months so you can just have the weather the storm mentality, but I just don't see how it will be better.
Yeah it really feels like just waiting for the hammer to drop. Tough to deal with this kind of thing when it's an invisible enemy.
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I'm impressed by Iran. They seem to have this under control. Starting yesterday it looks like active cases has stabilized, and new cases is approximately steady around 1000 new cases a day. Does anybody have any insights into what they are doing?
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Lalalaland34495 Posts
If it's persistent, stay home. Period.
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Interesting numbers from Germany. Their mortality rate is extremely low. Three times lower than the UK that have a fifth of their cases. For me this shows that as long as the health system doesn't shatter in pieces and can actually handle the cases, the illness is not that bad.
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On March 23 2020 05:54 Pr0wler wrote:
Interesting numbers from Germany. Their mortality rate is extremely low. Three times lower than the UK that have a fifth of their cases. For me this shows that as long as the health system doesn't shatter in pieces and can actually handle the cases, the illness is not that bad.
I don't know, UK was one of the last western countries to take coronavirus seriously because they went with herd immunity plan. Then, they switched to lockdown, so that to me implies they were/are undertesting. Also, NHS is underfunded as usual, but it's not that bad.
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On March 23 2020 05:54 Pr0wler wrote:
Interesting numbers from Germany. Their mortality rate is extremely low. Three times lower than the UK that have a fifth of their cases. For me this shows that as long as the health system doesn't shatter in pieces and can actually handle the cases, the illness is not that bad.
Imo it could also be a high test rate.
The president of the Robert Koch Institute said on Friday, or Thursday, that in my the last week alone around 156k people have been tested.
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Kate Brown ordered a stop on evictions. Now that also needs to apply to mortgages.
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EPT
