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Northern Ireland23322 Posts
On November 07 2022 00:02 evilfatsh1t wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2022 23:21 WombaT wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. What narrative do us borg drones stick to? There’s a pretty big divergence of opinion in here, I’d encourage you to stick around and engage and find out what that is. From my understanding, and what I read from those who wield much more expertise than I, the vaccines were effective enough against the earlier variants that a combination of vaccination and natural immunity could, theoretically borderline eradicate it. But hey, vaccination wasn’t rolled out quickly enough to poorer areas of the world, omicron became a dominant strain, which vaccines were considerably less effective against. Evidently, trying to pursue any kind of Covid elimination policy and holding that position became rather untenable given the changes in circumstances. So I shifted, as I believe most in this thread did, broadly from prevention to mitigation. As regulars will attest I was probably the most hawkish in the past for travel bans, or foreign travel without quarantine measures. It’s not remotely a position I hold now. If COVID elimination is a ship that has sailed, if localised preventative measures have been largely dropped, then restricting travel has a negligible impact and serves no great purpose. and how would mandating covid vaccines in schools fit into your position in this post? do you think it also is likely to have negligible impact? or do you think that somehow a vaccine mandate in schools is still meaningful and works towards eradication? sermokala is in line with the latter.
I don’t know, bar a pretty high level of confidence that the eradication ship has sailed.
Depends what winter brings, depends how effective jabs are, depends on wider factors like population vaccine uptake, or adherence to other preventative measures, if that becomes a factor again.
I wouldn’t, for example think a mandate for lower-risk groups like younger kids in schools would make a huge amount to have if vaccine/booster uptake drops across the board.
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On November 07 2022 00:14 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2022 00:02 evilfatsh1t wrote:On November 06 2022 23:21 WombaT wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. What narrative do us borg drones stick to? There’s a pretty big divergence of opinion in here, I’d encourage you to stick around and engage and find out what that is. From my understanding, and what I read from those who wield much more expertise than I, the vaccines were effective enough against the earlier variants that a combination of vaccination and natural immunity could, theoretically borderline eradicate it. But hey, vaccination wasn’t rolled out quickly enough to poorer areas of the world, omicron became a dominant strain, which vaccines were considerably less effective against. Evidently, trying to pursue any kind of Covid elimination policy and holding that position became rather untenable given the changes in circumstances. So I shifted, as I believe most in this thread did, broadly from prevention to mitigation. As regulars will attest I was probably the most hawkish in the past for travel bans, or foreign travel without quarantine measures. It’s not remotely a position I hold now. If COVID elimination is a ship that has sailed, if localised preventative measures have been largely dropped, then restricting travel has a negligible impact and serves no great purpose. and how would mandating covid vaccines in schools fit into your position in this post? do you think it also is likely to have negligible impact? or do you think that somehow a vaccine mandate in schools is still meaningful and works towards eradication? sermokala is in line with the latter. Something can be very impactful and not work towards eradication.
too bad covid vaccine mandates in schools arent one of those things
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On November 06 2022 19:45 Symplectos wrote:I can understand the frustration both sides feel, although I am obviously biased, and while this thread is informative, I have a feeling that the current discussion will go on for decades, as the two sides are simply speaking different languages. I think I wrote something similar before, but one of the difficult things in discussing scientific theories in a modern language is that most languages are not precise enough. To actually move forward reaching a consensus, or at least a better understanding, both sides would have to take a step back, define their actual talking points, define what the scientific words that are used mean exactly, and then try to slowly move forward to a conclusion. As an example: Show nested quote +Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus.
Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. How do I deal with these sentences in a scientific way, as a non-expert? Do I assume that the poster is an expert, and knows everything, because he is loud and uses an aggressive language? Maybe he is right, maybe he is not, both sentences could be true, but the truth probably is that they are not exactly true as they are written. I mean, scientists still do research on all those topics, which means they are probably not as sure about it as the poster. And then there are scientific ideas mixed with human emotions, why is one comparison deemed ridiculous, and the other obvious? Am I supposed to take hours and hours trying to figure out why those above claims are true, or possible false? I have not been given any arguments that I can actually verify, or falsify, or whatever. How can I even counter them, if the main argument is "your arguments are ridiculous"? And yes, just to be sure, that obviously goes for both sides, just stating that Covid could be eradicated because it is like the Measles, without any further arguments, is also not helpful. Speaking for myself, while having had some opportunity to do some Covid-related research at the beginning of the outbreak, I have not been able to keep track of all the new research done this year and the enormous number of background noises, make it very difficult to stay ahead of the curve. How suddenly all those non-scientifically inclined people know everything about viruses, transmission theory and dynamical systems, is either a wonder, or a delusion. What I find alarming though, is that the analytical process of the scientific community delivering research data, and political leaders then taking actions based on that data, is being under attack by a very loud minority.
I have a background in Academia but from a different field so I am well aware of how the Scientific method works.
This is not a Science forum, opinions and arguments here as you notice are warped with political ideology. You are trying to approach this topic without understanding the context of how this thread evolved into a plague of disgusting authoritarian coercing that drove fear and shameing.
As I already stated I have followed this thread from the very beginning, but I have refrained from posting and just conducted observation. I have explored the strategies of this faction and the patterns of the same users appear like a closed loop. These users are very leftist (postmodern marxist) in there ideology and also prone to be influenced by authoritarian views. Just check their posting in the US Politics thread.
They argue like they represent Science and they don’t tolerate arguments that challange their narrative (sheep mentality).
Just analyze the recent reaction here from Pfizer vaccine transmassion scandal. More of this kind of scandals will appear it is just a matter of time.
Moreover, you will find alot of nice old gems like e.g. ’imprison unvaccinated people on Mohdoo Island’ , extreme lockdowns and unvaccinated people should lose there jobs, infants should be vaccinated, mask coercion and much more juicy stuff.
In the end all of this has only caused extreme polarization in the society that benefits no one.
The smearing campaign against BlackJack is just the result of these people revealing their true colours. Their facade is off and Sauron is out in full force.
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Norway28525 Posts
Eh tbh the posters that are very strongly in favor of harsh covid measures tend to be left of centre, but the idea that postmodern marxists is an accurate description of them is kinda ridiculous and you'd do yourself a solid favor by avoiding using such a specific term to describe a highly generalized group of people. I'm arguably bj's strongest defender here and most likely I'm more of a postmodern marxist than any of his main 'opponents'. Not that the term really applies to me either.
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On November 06 2022 19:40 Artisreal wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. Damn so many strawmen... Missing the field for the scarecrows.
Strawmen? People are literally talking about eradicating COVID or getting to the point of virtually eliminating it. They are constantly talking about measles and smallpox and other diseases to imply that we can do the same with COVID that we did with them. Nobody is strawmanning this.
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On November 06 2022 19:45 Symplectos wrote:I can understand the frustration both sides feel, although I am obviously biased, and while this thread is informative, I have a feeling that the current discussion will go on for decades, as the two sides are simply speaking different languages. I think I wrote something similar before, but one of the difficult things in discussing scientific theories in a modern language is that most languages are not precise enough. To actually move forward reaching a consensus, or at least a better understanding, both sides would have to take a step back, define their actual talking points, define what the scientific words that are used mean exactly, and then try to slowly move forward to a conclusion. As an example: Show nested quote +Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus.
Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. How do I deal with these sentences in a scientific way, as a non-expert? Do I assume that the poster is an expert, and knows everything, because he is loud and uses an aggressive language? Maybe he is right, maybe he is not, both sentences could be true, but the truth probably is that they are not exactly true as they are written. I mean, scientists still do research on all those topics, which means they are probably not as sure about it as the poster. And then there are scientific ideas mixed with human emotions, why is one comparison deemed ridiculous, and the other obvious? Am I supposed to take hours and hours trying to figure out why those above claims are true, or possible false? I have not been given any arguments that I can actually verify, or falsify, or whatever. How can I even counter them, if the main argument is "your arguments are ridiculous"? And yes, just to be sure, that obviously goes for both sides, just stating that Covid could be eradicated because it is like the Measles, without any further arguments, is also not helpful. Speaking for myself, while having had some opportunity to do some Covid-related research at the beginning of the outbreak, I have not been able to keep track of all the new research done this year and the enormous number of background noises, make it very difficult to stay ahead of the curve. How suddenly all those non-scientifically inclined people know everything about viruses, transmission theory and dynamical systems, is either a wonder, or a delusion. What I find alarming though, is that the analytical process of the scientific community delivering research data, and political leaders then taking actions based on that data, is being under attack by a very loud minority.
I'm going to say again, it's not a language thing, it's a tribalism thing. Look no further than the level of scrutiny or evidence demanded when I say something vs when anyone else says something.
I say I think we could have reopened schools sooner or kept them open as evidenced by Sweden's ability or to do the same or Florida's ability to open them early. I am told that I need to provide cost-benefit analysis, projections of hospitalizations, proof that one country can do something is not evidence another country can do it, etc.
Meanwhile people in the covid-hysteria crowd can just make up any shit they want. Sermokala says after a few decades of vaccinating children we will reach a point where COVID is virtually eliminated the same way measles or whooping cough and other diseases. Just a hypothesis that is completely pulled out of his ass that has no evidence other than "We've done it before with these other diseases" and nobody disputes this nonsense.
Or Magic Powers proposes that we could have eradicated COVID with even more extensive measures/lockdowns and stricter bans on travel.
Not only has no evidence been provided for these claims but we also have plenty of evidence to the contrary and they stand in direct opposition to what experts say on the topic.
The WHO says lockdowns should be used as a very very last resort. There's never been any recommendation to use lockdown/measures as a means to eradicate the virus.
There's also scientific consensus that COVID is here to stay "But what is clear is that the hope that vaccines and prior infection could generate herd immunity to COVID-19 — an unlikely possibility from the start — has all but disappeared." The comparisons to measles, smallpox, polio, pertussis have no basis in reality.
Yet people get to say these things and go completely unchallenged by almost all of the regulars in this thread. Instead they will jump in to offer any illogical interpretation they can muster to explain away these positions as not being in direct opposition to the experts in the field, because after all they are "allowed" to interpret hypotheticals however they want. Maybe they will explain to me that the correct interpretation of "eradicate COVID" is that it will be eventually eradicated in the heat death of the universe so it's correct to say we can eradicate it.
But the reason that we have had more vitriol in this thread lately is because people that are constantly posting these ideas that are completely antithetical to everything we know about science of the COVID virus are the ones insisting, condescendingly and without evidence, that they have the experts on their side and we are the science-deniers. This level of idiocy and condescension can only be tolerated for so long.
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Since you, Blackjack, and your "voice of reason" bring up the politicization of this topic, it thus then also has to be said that this idea of tribalism is an invention of those who benefit from a purely emotional discussion. Let's start with "the voice of reason".
So far, without any arguments, I have been told that:
This is not a Science forum, opinions and arguments here as you notice are warped with political ideology. You are trying to approach this topic without understanding the context of how this thread evolved into a plague of disgusting authoritarian coercing that drove fear and shameing.
This is just projecting.
These users are very leftist (postmodern marxist) in there ideology and also prone to be influenced by authoritarian views. Just check their posting in the US Politics thread.
They argue like they represent Science and they don’t tolerate arguments that challange their narrative (sheep mentality).
I have no clue what poor Marx did to deserve this treatment. And again, just projecting.
Just analyze the recent reaction here from Pfizer vaccine transmassion scandal. More of this kind of scandals will appear it is just a matter of time.
Just a few sentences ago, it was said that the "other side" uses fear and coercion, and then things like this are brought up. That is quite the self-own.
Their facade is off and Sauron is out in full force.
This is how the tribalism mentality aids those without arguments, as they can simply yell "but the others, they are literally Sauron!".
You claim to know how the scientific method works, but you willfully decided to forego reason for madness. I am sure you know that makes it impossible to discuss with you in good faith, and I can only assume that you are trolling.
Blackjack is at least more honest, although many things are taken out of context, and then overblown, again from both sides.
I say I think we could have reopened schools sooner or kept them open as evidenced by Sweden's ability or to do the same or Florida's ability to open them early. I am told that I need to provide cost-benefit analysis, projections of hospitalizations, proof that one country can do something is not evidence another country can do it, etc.
I would agree with this, but it is rather pointless to argue, as politicians or whoever is in charge of schools, had to take decisions with the data they had at that point in time. I do not want children to suffer for our stupidity, I would thus appreciate it if we could keep schools open for as long as possible.
The other part of the sentence is wrong though, data from Sweden might or might not apply to other countries. Again, that is a decision those countries have to make, based on the data they have. Ideally, a country has enough data to see how their healthcare system, including the healthcare workers, can handle the hospitalization rate, and if the system is projected to be overrun, then yes, some mandates will be enacted again. But as long as the healthcare system can handle the workload, there won't be such closures. Nobody, in their sane mind, whether "on the left" or "on the right", if we want to Americanize the discussion, wants to close schools and make people's lives miserable, just for fun.
Meanwhile people in the covid-hysteria crowd can just make up any shit they want. Sermokala says after a few decades of vaccinating children we will reach a point where COVID is virtually eliminated the same way measles or whooping cough and other diseases. Just a hypothesis that is completely pulled out of his ass that has no evidence other than "We've done it before with these other diseases" and nobody disputes this nonsense.
This is a contradiction of what you said above. You say that you would like to apply the data gathered in Sweden or Florida to the rest of the world, but you do not agree that ideas that worked for the measles or other diseases might also work for Covid. In both cases, it is more of a feeling, than based on data. Obviously, we know today that we failed at containing the virus.
"But what is clear is that the hope that vaccines and prior infection could generate herd immunity to COVID-19 — an unlikely possibility from the start — has all but disappeared."
This part sums it up quite well, thus I do not really know why the discussion keeps going on for such a long time. There was an unlikely possibility, it is now gone.
The WHO says lockdowns should be used as a very very last resort. There's never been any recommendation to use lockdown/measures as a means to eradicate the virus.
At this point, as I wrote above, lockdowns can be a mean to make sure the healthcare system is not overloaded. I can only speak for myself, and my country, but lockdowns were never meant to "eradicate" the virus.
Maybe they will explain to me that the correct interpretation of "eradicate COVID" is that it will be eventually eradicated in the heat death of the universe so it's correct to say we can eradicate it.
Again, not tribalism, but a problem of a not precise enough language.
This level of idiocy and condescension can only be tolerated for so long.
I can understand this, but again, it goes both ways. And again, as "the voice of reason" brought politics into this, as a scientist, I do not see why, after two years, I still have to try to explain to the Trump and Q-Anon people, that they have been duped. Again, the Americanization, if the "right" wants to listen to that loud minority, they are obviously free to do that, but they have to then understand that they won't be understood by others anymore, quite simply, because they make it impossible to have a discussion in good faith.
If truly we are already in a world with only two sides, then yes, we are lost, because clearly, there is no real discussion, just a lot of shaming. And from my person feeling or experience, it is not the scientists that are condescending.
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Sermokala was just ranting incoherently about Trump a couple pages back and has been doing more name-calling than anyone but you seem to ignore that to talk about InDaHouse's name-calling and "bringing politics into this."
You also seem to agree with me and the scientific consensus that Herd Immunity is no longer a possibility and lockdowns should not be used as a means to eradicate the virus but I also haven't seen you challenge the posters making claims to the contrary.
Also when things are consistently interpreted in the least charitable ways for the opposite side but the most charitable ways for your side it's hard to blame that entirely on language and not on people.
This is a contradiction of what you said above. You say that you would like to apply the data gathered in Sweden or Florida to the rest of the world, but you do not agree that ideas that worked for the measles or other diseases might also work for Covid. In both cases, it is more of a feeling, than based on data. Obviously, we know today that we failed at containing the virus.
Not really a contradiction. We have a ton of data to disprove one - e.g. the vaccine efficacy of the COVID vaccines compared to the vaccine efficacy of other vaccines for diseases that we have eliminated, animal reservoirs, rates of mutation, etc.
We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools. If anything the data points the other way - Florida has more senior citizens than California, they have more people that have been chronically without health insurance, they have lower vaccination rates, etc. They did end up having fewer COVID deaths than Florida though.
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On November 07 2022 04:11 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Eh tbh the posters that are very strongly in favor of harsh covid measures tend to be left of centre, but the idea that postmodern marxists is an accurate description of them is kinda ridiculous and you'd do yourself a solid favor by avoiding using such a specific term to describe a highly generalized group of people. I'm arguably bj's strongest defender here and most likely I'm more of a postmodern marxist than any of his main 'opponents'. Not that the term really applies to me either.
Yeah, that was a really farfetched political connection InDaHouse just tried to make, seemingly out of nowhere.
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Northern Ireland23322 Posts
On November 07 2022 03:59 InDaHouse wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2022 19:45 Symplectos wrote:I can understand the frustration both sides feel, although I am obviously biased, and while this thread is informative, I have a feeling that the current discussion will go on for decades, as the two sides are simply speaking different languages. I think I wrote something similar before, but one of the difficult things in discussing scientific theories in a modern language is that most languages are not precise enough. To actually move forward reaching a consensus, or at least a better understanding, both sides would have to take a step back, define their actual talking points, define what the scientific words that are used mean exactly, and then try to slowly move forward to a conclusion. As an example: Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus.
Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. How do I deal with these sentences in a scientific way, as a non-expert? Do I assume that the poster is an expert, and knows everything, because he is loud and uses an aggressive language? Maybe he is right, maybe he is not, both sentences could be true, but the truth probably is that they are not exactly true as they are written. I mean, scientists still do research on all those topics, which means they are probably not as sure about it as the poster. And then there are scientific ideas mixed with human emotions, why is one comparison deemed ridiculous, and the other obvious? Am I supposed to take hours and hours trying to figure out why those above claims are true, or possible false? I have not been given any arguments that I can actually verify, or falsify, or whatever. How can I even counter them, if the main argument is "your arguments are ridiculous"? And yes, just to be sure, that obviously goes for both sides, just stating that Covid could be eradicated because it is like the Measles, without any further arguments, is also not helpful. Speaking for myself, while having had some opportunity to do some Covid-related research at the beginning of the outbreak, I have not been able to keep track of all the new research done this year and the enormous number of background noises, make it very difficult to stay ahead of the curve. How suddenly all those non-scientifically inclined people know everything about viruses, transmission theory and dynamical systems, is either a wonder, or a delusion. What I find alarming though, is that the analytical process of the scientific community delivering research data, and political leaders then taking actions based on that data, is being under attack by a very loud minority. I have a background in Academia but from a different field so I am well aware of how the Scientific method works. This is not a Science forum, opinions and arguments here as you notice are warped with political ideology. You are trying to approach this topic without understanding the context of how this thread evolved into a plague of disgusting authoritarian coercing that drove fear and shameing. As I already stated I have followed this thread from the very beginning, but I have refrained from posting and just conducted observation. I have explored the strategies of this faction and the patterns of the same users appear like a closed loop. These users are very leftist (postmodern marxist) in there ideology and also prone to be influenced by authoritarian views. Just check their posting in the US Politics thread. They argue like they represent Science and they don’t tolerate arguments that challange their narrative (sheep mentality). Just analyze the recent reaction here from Pfizer vaccine transmassion scandal. More of this kind of scandals will appear it is just a matter of time. Moreover, you will find alot of nice old gems like e.g. ’imprison unvaccinated people on Mohdoo Island’ , extreme lockdowns and unvaccinated people should lose there jobs, infants should be vaccinated, mask coercion and much more juicy stuff. In the end all of this has only caused extreme polarization in the society that benefits no one. The smearing campaign against BlackJack is just the result of these people revealing their true colours. Their facade is off and Sauron is out in full force.
The Covid pandemic is as much as, if not more of a political problem than one of science, so of course that will seep in.
I wouldn’t generalise a whole bunch of posters, actually with divergent opinions as ‘postmodern leftists’. Indeed I’d generally scrub that term from my personal vernacular as it’s almost invariably uttered by idiots and one tends to get damned by association. Plus the ‘postmodern Marxist’ variant literally makes no actual sense as a term.
Mohdoo IslandTM is also surprisingly pleasant at this time of year incidentally.
But no I wouldn’t conflate exasperation and frustration with serious advocacy of internment policies. I’ve certainly been guilty of saying ridiculous things in the former state that I don’t actually advocate when I cool off a little.
The benefit of actually actively engaging rather than lurker is in clarification of one’s positions. I can only speak for myself, and probably accurately guess that of others here. As for Pfizer, well, certainly no love for aspects of the pharmaceutical industry here.
On the other hand, it’s a pandemic. You don’t have the luxury of many years of clinical trials.
You let pharmaceutical companies cut corners in regulation to bring vaccines as quick as possible to market. Or you don’t, and you have no vaccines.
I go with option A, some may disagree with that position, fine. The one thing you cannot have is both of those things simultaneously.
As per the latest ‘scandal’ re transmissibility, I think it’s a distortion, and it’s not without merit but some of the criticism is hugely over blowing it. And, my own personal position is it’s not coming from a good faith place, it’s primarily coming from people who have an existing bias and are looking for ANY hook to justify their previous stances and go ‘haha see I was right’ (conveniently skipppng all the times they were not)
Obligatory proviso that not everyone is like this, I’m referring to a (pretty big) subset of people. There are some legitimate criticisms to be made here, sure absolutely.
It’s been a very polarising issue, needlessly. But rarely does the phenomenon occur due to one pole stretching out, it’s usual that it happens in both directions, and this certainly is such a time.
The facade is off, as it were yes I’d agree. People in here, to varying degrees have made the calculation that some curtailing of freedom was necessary, for the sake of wider public health. Folks in my ‘tribe’ have been pretty open about assuming that position, and have owned it for years now.
On the flip side, those who differ in that base position also need to own what the consequences of what they’re advocating are. Which many are incapable of doing, and hey some are and fair play to them. Maybe it’s not even a conscious process, but ultimately many cannot be open about making the calculation that some level of restriction is intolerable and some level of excess death is preferable as a tradeoff.
I don’t want to get a vaccine even though it seems to be a no-brainier with societal benefits metamorphoses into variants of ‘vaccines don’t work’. I can’t be arsed dealing with the minor inconvenience of wearing a mask, similarly and so on and so forth.
Personally I, and I imagine others have changed positions on a whole bunch of things as the situation developed. Some restrictions I was in favour of (I was probably the most hawkish here specifically on travel restrictions), I’ve moderated on given what’s occurred in the interim.
Others I mean, at the absolute peak of the pandemic, for the sake of a half hour shop you really can’t just suck it up, wear a mask and try to keep distance? People have to make such a small adjustment, with some justification and failing that, a courtesy to workers, some of whom were absolutely terrified at the time? You can’t just do that?
As for the ongoing BJ/Sermakola et al. back and forth I mean, I don’t think that’s much to do with positions and more to do with a consistent breakdown in communication so I wouldn’t view that as evidence of some Marxist beatdown or w/e
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Sermokala was just ranting incoherently about Trump a couple pages back and has been doing more name-calling than anyone but you seem to ignore that to talk about InDaHouse's name-calling and "bringing politics into this."
I talked about InDaHouse's post, because you presented that post as a "voice of reason", which it clearly was not.
Not really a contradiction. We have a ton of data to disprove one - e.g. the vaccine efficacy of the COVID vaccines compared to the vaccine efficacy of other vaccines for diseases that we have eliminated, animal reservoirs, rates of mutation, etc.
I do not have enough knowledge about the exact data, but I have no problem with this statement. For measures to take, please refer to my longer post above. This position, however, is easily verifiable, or falsified, by actual data, i.e. it can be shown how effective the vaccine is, thus measures can be taken accordingly.
We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools. If anything the data points the other way - Florida has more senior citizens than California, they have more people that have been chronically without health insurance, they have lower vaccination rates, etc.
This, however, is at the crux of why those discussions drag out for so many pages. The statement "Florida opened their schools early, thus California could have done that as well", is difficult for two reasons. It requires hindsight, but even if we ignore that, it is not how a logical argument is constructed. The problematic part is this: "We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools." That brings no logical value, as failure of being able to disprove something does not equal a proof. Logically speaking, it is difficult to compare the situations in Florida and California, and even if we could, what about every other region in the world?
As WombaT said, this discussion continues on and on because you and Sermakola can't find common definitions for the ideas you speak about.
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Northern Ireland23322 Posts
On November 07 2022 04:21 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 06 2022 19:40 Artisreal wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. Damn so many strawmen... Missing the field for the scarecrows. Strawmen? People are literally talking about eradicating COVID or getting to the point of virtually eliminating it. They are constantly talking about measles and smallpox and other diseases to imply that we can do the same with COVID that we did with them. Nobody is strawmanning this.
As I said, I don’t think Sermakola actually said that, if he wishes to correct me and says actually, that’s what he meant then I will appreciate the clarification and go to disagree with him.
If I am wrong, I am happy to stand corrected. My understanding is the thrust of the argument is ‘hey it’s still better than not vaccinating people and yeah, it won’t be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway, so why not’
Magic Powers a few pages back said that while he was in favour of an eradication policy, and there may have been a window in the past to do that, that that ship has sailed. Which is basically the evolution of my position.
From recollection we were probably the two in here most strongly arguing for such an approach. The rest either shifted position along a similar trajectory, or never thought elimination was a viable strategy to begin with.
Again, there’s been a lot of posts last few days, could have missed a line or something and be off. From where I’m sitting the reason people here don’t argue against an elimination strategy more forcefully is that almost nobody is actually proposing it.
There’s scant evidence that the winter will bring back even the majority of past restrictions, all quiet on the Western front in terms of such recommendations from public health figures etc. we collectively look unlikely to fight the virus with the tools we’ve previously employed, much less step it up to another level entirely.
So I tend not to argue against something that both isn’t happening, nor looks especially likely to be happening.
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On November 07 2022 06:48 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2022 04:21 BlackJack wrote:On November 06 2022 19:40 Artisreal wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. Damn so many strawmen... Missing the field for the scarecrows. Strawmen? People are literally talking about eradicating COVID or getting to the point of virtually eliminating it. They are constantly talking about measles and smallpox and other diseases to imply that we can do the same with COVID that we did with them. Nobody is strawmanning this. As I said, I don’t think Sermakola actually said that, if he wishes to correct me and says actually, that’s what he meant then I will appreciate the clarification and go to disagree with him. If I am wrong, I am happy to stand corrected. My understanding is the thrust of the argument is ‘hey it’s still better than not vaccinating people and yeah, it won’t be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway, so why not’
Just to save you some time - since I said the same thing yesterday - BlackJack considers this interpretation to be unacceptable, and insists "you’ve completely lost your mind or if you have so little integrity that you’d make up a lie just to defend Serms foolish comments". You're not allowed to interpret Serm's comments in any way other than the way BJ does, and so BJ considers us either crazy or insincere.
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Northern Ireland23322 Posts
On November 07 2022 07:02 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2022 06:48 WombaT wrote:On November 07 2022 04:21 BlackJack wrote:On November 06 2022 19:40 Artisreal wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. Damn so many strawmen... Missing the field for the scarecrows. Strawmen? People are literally talking about eradicating COVID or getting to the point of virtually eliminating it. They are constantly talking about measles and smallpox and other diseases to imply that we can do the same with COVID that we did with them. Nobody is strawmanning this. As I said, I don’t think Sermakola actually said that, if he wishes to correct me and says actually, that’s what he meant then I will appreciate the clarification and go to disagree with him. If I am wrong, I am happy to stand corrected. My understanding is the thrust of the argument is ‘hey it’s still better than not vaccinating people and yeah, it won’t be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway, so why not’ Just to save you some time - since I said the same thing yesterday - BlackJack considers this interpretation to be unacceptable, and insists "you’ve completely lost your mind or if you have so little integrity that you’d make up a lie just to defend Serms foolish comments". You're not allowed to interpret Serm's comments in any way other than the way BJ does, and so BJ considers us either crazy or insincere.
Hey I may have spent time as diagnostically insane, but I’m always sincere dagnabbit!
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On November 07 2022 06:48 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2022 04:21 BlackJack wrote:On November 06 2022 19:40 Artisreal wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. Damn so many strawmen... Missing the field for the scarecrows. Strawmen? People are literally talking about eradicating COVID or getting to the point of virtually eliminating it. They are constantly talking about measles and smallpox and other diseases to imply that we can do the same with COVID that we did with them. Nobody is strawmanning this. As I said, I don’t think Sermakola actually said that, if he wishes to correct me and says actually, that’s what he meant then I will appreciate the clarification and go to disagree with him. If I am wrong, I am happy to stand corrected. My understanding is the thrust of the argument is ‘hey it’s still better than not vaccinating people and yeah, it won’t be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway, so why not’
BJ: Do you still believe we can achieve herd immunity against COVID and virtually eliminate it from our schools the way we have chicken pox and measles, or...? What?"
Sermokala: Yes. Thats what people were saying back in 2020 and what they're saying now.
BJ: Well you're wrong and you're using faulty logic to believe that
Sermokala: "The logic I'm using is the same logic that has been used successfully in other examples."
WombaT: I don't think he's arguing we could eliminate COVID from schools. The thrust of the argument is "hey it's still better than not vaccinating people and yeah it won't be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway so why not."
Sorry but it's ridiculous. I'm not the one constantly talking about measles and polio and whatever else. It's Sermokala that's constantly referencing these other diseases and constantly referencing herd immunity and very clearly and plainly stating that we can virtually eliminate COVID from schools the way we have these other diseases.
But you don't think he's arguing that we could eliminate COVID from schools.
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Also huge citation needed for "That's what people are saying" in reference to "virtually eliminating" covid from schools. Who is saying this?! This is a move ripped straight out of Trumps playbook. "A lot of people are saying I'm the best President ever. A lot of people are saying my hair is fantastic."
A lot of people are saying after a few decades of vaccinating children we will reach herd immunity against COVID. That's what a lot of people are saying. Ok, Trump.
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On November 07 2022 07:40 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2022 06:48 WombaT wrote:On November 07 2022 04:21 BlackJack wrote:On November 06 2022 19:40 Artisreal wrote:On November 06 2022 17:55 InDaHouse wrote:Well this faction of authoritarian Borg Drones in this thread are now trying to hold the line when their narrative is crashing down. They are the same people sitting alone in their car with a mask or takes a swin in the sea alone with a mask, lol. Are you completely delusional? You’re counterargument is comparing Covid that belongs to the Corona family viruses with Smallpox and Measles is ridicoulus. Covid has more in similarities with the common flu and that is the whole fucking point why it cannot be eradicated. When a virus can harbour in animals (READ COVID) it can also mutate and jump back to humans, thus it is impossible to eradicate Maybe in some other universe in the multiverse, but not here. MEASLES and SMALLPOX cannot infect animals therefore are mandatory vaccinationprograms effective in creating herd immunity. www.cdc.govwww.cdc.govSo the effort to vaccinate the entire world against Covid is useless with the aim to eradicate the virus. This fact is already known by epidemiologist. The mandates will never come back, the Governments will not risk severe civil unrest in the midst of shortage inflation and prelude to global war. Damn so many strawmen... Missing the field for the scarecrows. Strawmen? People are literally talking about eradicating COVID or getting to the point of virtually eliminating it. They are constantly talking about measles and smallpox and other diseases to imply that we can do the same with COVID that we did with them. Nobody is strawmanning this. As I said, I don’t think Sermakola actually said that, if he wishes to correct me and says actually, that’s what he meant then I will appreciate the clarification and go to disagree with him. If I am wrong, I am happy to stand corrected. My understanding is the thrust of the argument is ‘hey it’s still better than not vaccinating people and yeah, it won’t be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway, so why not’ BJ: Do you still believe we can achieve herd immunity against COVID and virtually eliminate it from our schools the way we have chicken pox and measles, or...? What?" Sermokala: Yes. Thats what people were saying back in 2020 and what they're saying now. BJ: Well you're wrong and you're using faulty logic to believe that Sermokala: "The logic I'm using is the same logic that has been used successfully in other examples." WombaT: I don't think he's arguing we could eliminate COVID from schools. The thrust of the argument is "hey it's still better than not vaccinating people and yeah it won't be as effective but there is a precedent of mandatory vaccination anyway so why not." Sorry but it's ridiculous. I'm not the one constantly talking about measles and polio and whatever else. It's Sermokala that's constantly referencing these other diseases and constantly referencing herd immunity and very clearly and plainly stating that we can virtually eliminate COVID from schools the way we have these other diseases. But you don't think he's arguing that we could eliminate COVID from schools.
It's like I can predict the future 
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On November 07 2022 06:44 Symplectos wrote:Show nested quote +
We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools. If anything the data points the other way - Florida has more senior citizens than California, they have more people that have been chronically without health insurance, they have lower vaccination rates, etc.
This, however, is at the crux of why those discussions drag out for so many pages. The statement "Florida opened their schools early, thus California could have done that as well", is difficult for two reasons. It requires hindsight, but even if we ignore that, it is not how a logical argument is constructed. The problematic part is this: "We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools." That brings no logical value, as failure of being able to disprove something does not equal a proof. Logically speaking, it is difficult to compare the situations in Florida and California, and even if we could, what about every other region in the world?
I don't disagree with you. Nobody can prove one way or the other that the route not taken was the correct route. No matter how similar to localities are, proof that one could open schools is not proof that the other could (although I will insist that it is evidence).
My grievance was that the other side thinks they have exclusive rights to declare that closing schools was the correct course of action and I'm obliged to disprove it with a preponderance of evidence. Magic Powers posted a source that said that the decision to close schools was not done based on a rigorous analysis of the factors but often driven by confirmation bias. Additionally we saw that the largest factors relating to reopening schools was not ICU bed availability or case rates or death rates. Instead the largest factors were completely political - i.e. areas with stronger teachers unions were slower to open, areas that are heavily Democrat were slower to reopen.
If people want to agree to disagree because we're all just guessing about the optimal timeline for reopening schools I have no problem with that. But instead people want to insist without evidence that their position has the full faith and backing of "The Science" when the leading health experts in the world were urging kids to get back into school* and liberal politicians attempting to not ruffle teacher's unions were the ones keeping them out. It's infuriating.
*Citation
American Academy of Pediatrics representing 67,000 pediatricians calls for schools to be reopened in June of 2020.
https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-06-29/pediatric-group-calls-for-children-to-return-to-schools-despite-coronavirus
Perhaps most importantly, the pediatric group concludes, reopening is essential for the country's most vulnerable students, including poor students and students of color, who often rely more heavily on the multitude of services schools provide.
"Beyond supporting the educational development of children and adolescents, schools play a critical role in addressing racial and social inequity," the guidance reads. "As such, it is critical to reflect on the differential impact SARS-CoV-2 and the associated school closures have had on different races, ethnic and vulnerable populations."
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On November 07 2022 08:13 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2022 06:44 Symplectos wrote:
We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools. If anything the data points the other way - Florida has more senior citizens than California, they have more people that have been chronically without health insurance, they have lower vaccination rates, etc.
This, however, is at the crux of why those discussions drag out for so many pages. The statement "Florida opened their schools early, thus California could have done that as well", is difficult for two reasons. It requires hindsight, but even if we ignore that, it is not how a logical argument is constructed. The problematic part is this: "We don't have a ton of data to disprove for example that California couldn't open schools the same time Florida opened schools." That brings no logical value, as failure of being able to disprove something does not equal a proof. Logically speaking, it is difficult to compare the situations in Florida and California, and even if we could, what about every other region in the world? I don't disagree with you. Nobody can prove one way or the other that the route not taken was the correct route. No matter how similar to localities are, proof that one could open schools is not proof that the other could (although I will insist that it is evidence). My grievance was that the other side thinks they have exclusive rights to declare that closing schools was the correct course of action and I'm obliged to disprove it with a preponderance of evidence. Magic Powers posted a source that said that the decision to close schools was not done based on a rigorous analysis of the factors but often driven by confirmation bias. Additionally we saw that the largest factors relating to reopening schools was not ICU bed availability or case rates or death rates. Instead the largest factors were completely political - i.e. areas with stronger teachers unions were slower to open, areas that are heavily Democrat were slower to reopen. If people want to agree to disagree because we're all just guessing about the optimal timeline for reopening schools I have no problem with that. But instead people want to insist without evidence that their position has the full faith and backing of "The Science" when the leading health experts in the world are urging kids to get back into school and liberal politicians attempting to not ruffle teacher's unions are the ones keeping them out. It's infuriating.
Which liberal states/cities and teachers' unions are still currently keeping schools closed? Or are you referring to last school year?
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