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Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. |
On January 07 2021 01:09 Uldridge wrote:
If I'm asymptomatic it might be possible my body didn't even recognize it or that the virus didn't even get proper acces to certain parts. How would a vaccine then do me any good?
Asymptomatic illness does not mean your organs get off scot free.
You can get heart damage or lung damage, and probably damage someplace else too due to covid, without ever noticing symptoms.
Source
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Sure, but if my body doesn't mount a proper immune response, how does a vaccine help? If the vaccine somehow helps to initiate an immune response by making the antigen my body couldn't properly process before, recognizable, I'm all for it. If my body makes antibodies against the antigen and it still doesn't properly recognize the virus when it's getting in, then what's the point?
Is there anyone a bit more specialized in infectiology to makes these nuances a bit more clear for me?
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On January 07 2021 01:09 Uldridge wrote:
If I'm asymptomatic it might be possible my body didn't even recognise it or that the virus didn't even get proper access to certain parts. How would a vaccine then do me any good? You personally? not much.
The people you could have infected that do get symptoms or even die? I think they would care.
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On January 06 2021 19:44 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 11:33 RKC wrote:
Get a grip, people. Not every one hesitant to take the vaccine now is an anti-vaxxer.
My Mom doesn't intend to take one, despite my best urgings. She's worried that it's not fully being tried and tested. She's willing to wait out. Her hometown is doing well. She rarely goes out. She takes precautions. She takes more medication. She's in the pink of health.
More importantly, she's lived a full life. She's lived long enough to live through worst crises - war, and even past epidemics more deadly to our region before. Who am I to judge her for being silly, stubborn, or even senile? She's lived much longer than me. Sometimes, I feel she knows more about my health than my own self. She's not a doctor. She has no science degree. She's no shaman or witch either. She just has good instincts on what it takes to lead a long healthy and happy life.
At first, I was very taken aback about her reluctance on taking the vaccine. And then I realise her peers share the same philosophy. And as an aging town, they're faring much better than we young vibrant know-it-all city folks. Who am I to doubt them?
Humanity has survived worst crises than this before. Keep calm and carry on. Live and let live. Life finds a way. I feel you make some decent points here. On the other side of the coin, it’s very, very frustrating for many of us if we’re within sight of the promised land and the very people we’ve been dragging along for months don’t want to take that final step. As an individual position I totally understand and sympathise, as a representative of a wider group who’ve lived their lives and us young folk have had to sacrifice a huge chunk of a year of ours for, it’s a mite frustrating. I mean I don’t know if I’ll take the vaccine if it takes any chasing up or effort on my part, so I can’t criticise too much! Unlike health workers, where people tend to behave around, us retail workers have a public that absolutely disregards good practice, swarms us, mask uptake has been patchy etc. Christmas was absolutely horrendous for us in this regard, and exceptionally aggravating. Whole extended families out for a leisurely shop during a pandemic? For most of me and my colleagues we’ve been operating on a que sera sera basis as per contracting Covid. Plus on a personal note I value mental health above physical health (I was once institutionalised for a year so, understandable I think.) I would absolutely get the vaccine to prevent others from catching it, but I’m somewhat skeptical that my spot in the queue will really help in that regard. By the time I’m up in the queue all the vulnerable groups should be protected.
Yes, it's frustrating when a few minority ruins the sacrifices of the majority. I try my best to understand their point of view, rather than jumping to condemn and criticise them. Not all of us share the same priorities in life. Not everyone is privileged enough to take 100% precaution against the virus. I'm speaking generally here.
Back to vaccines. Government already has compulsory jabs for measles, etc. No one bats an eyelid. The only concern is kids freaking out about pointy needles. My Mom has no issue with well-established vaccines. She's just getting cold feet with the speed with the current vaccines. Trust takes time build. Truth is, until there is mandatory enforcement, there's always going to be people holding out for personal reasons. Are they irrational? Going against something backed up fully by science AND law is irrational (e.g. drunk-driving). Anything short of that.... I don't know...
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On January 07 2021 02:07 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2021 01:09 Uldridge wrote:
If I'm asymptomatic it might be possible my body didn't even recognise it or that the virus didn't even get proper access to certain parts. How would a vaccine then do me any good? You personally? not much. The people you could have infected that do get symptoms or even die? I think they would care.
Again, if my immune system doesn't recognize the thing because I'm supposedly asymptomatic, how does the vaccine help my immune system kill the virus so it doesn't spread to other people? You seem to miss the nuance of me arguing that the vaccine isn't a silver bullet for everyone.
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On January 07 2021 02:34 Uldridge wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2021 02:07 Gorsameth wrote:On January 07 2021 01:09 Uldridge wrote:
If I'm asymptomatic it might be possible my body didn't even recognise it or that the virus didn't even get proper access to certain parts. How would a vaccine then do me any good? You personally? not much. The people you could have infected that do get symptoms or even die? I think they would care. Again, if my immune system doesn't recognize the thing because I'm supposedly asymptomatic, how does the vaccine help my immune system kill the virus so it doesn't spread to other people? You seem to miss the nuance of me arguing that the vaccine isn't a silver bullet for everyone.
Being asymptomatic doesn't mean your immune system doesn't recognize sars-cov-2. You could be actively fighting the virus without realizing it.
I quickly looked up this article that explains it, but I didn't have time to make sure the source is good (at first glance it does look good though).
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-12-evidence-immunity-mild-asymptomatic-covid-.html
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I know there's nuance here too. Of course there's a situation you have a superb immune response it nips the virus in the bud just like that and it's barely noticeable. Then a vaccination is STILL kind of useless since your immune response is already top notch, however, here I'm arguing for cases where the virus either evades the immune reponse, or where the virus barely has access to cells due individual or population mutations where it can kind of get in cells, but not spread as much and the immune cells are like whatever we'll just clean out the garbage, but there's still some kind of titer present.
How does a vaccine help in that kind of circumstance?
Is it just the knowledge of: hey, I KNOW I'm immunized because of vaccination so I shouldn't become a reservoir that can spread like crazy, or is it something more?
What about the one where the virus does secret damage to you without you noticing because you're not getting sick (aka your immune system isn't going haywire)? Is it again, the fact that you've done your civic duty so to speak?
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On January 07 2021 02:53 Uldridge wrote:
I know there's nuance here too. Of course there's a situation you have a superb immune response it nips the virus in the bud just like that and it's barely noticeable. Then a vaccination is STILL kind of useless since your immune response is already top notch, however, here I'm arguing for cases where the virus either evades the immune reponse, or where the virus barely has access to cells due individual or population mutations where it can kind of get in cells, but not spread as much and the immune cells are like whatever we'll just clean out the garbage, but there's still some kind of titer present.
How does a vaccine help in that kind of circumstance?
Is it just the knowledge of: hey, I KNOW I'm immunized because of vaccination so I shouldn't become a reservoir that can spread like crazy, or is it something more?
What about the one where the virus does secret damage to you without you noticing because you're not getting sick (aka your immune system isn't going haywire)? Is it again, the fact that you've done your civic duty so to speak?
how are you so sure you'll be asymptomatic? how are you so sure your body doesnt need a vaccine? how are you so sure that you wont spread a disease without even knowing you have it?
you cant be sure. thats why people get vaccinated.
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I'm talking about a hypothetical since someone brought up an asymptomatic scenario.
I don't know if I'll be asymptomatic, I don't know I don't need a vaccine, I don't know I'm not a spreader. Because no one knows.
All I said was that I'm very healthy which means I think I'm not in immediate need for a vaccine so I'm in no hurry to get one. I'll eventually get one, but I won't scream to get one ASAP.
As my own giant anecdotal biased evidence self said earlier, I've been practising social distancing and wearing a face mask since march and have never been healthier. It's not a guarantee I won't get the disease literally tomorrow or be a spreader, but if I was a spreader I would have been asymptomatc (since I haven't felt sick yet last year) so then I question the effectivity of the vaccine for me personally since either I already have antibodies or my body isn't really a vessel for Sars-cov2.
Again, I'm not against vaccination, I just don't feel like I need one ASAP.
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On January 07 2021 02:53 Uldridge wrote:
I know there's nuance here too. Of course there's a situation you have a superb immune response it nips the virus in the bud just like that and it's barely noticeable. Then a vaccination is STILL kind of useless since your immune response is already top notch, however, here I'm arguing for cases where the virus either evades the immune reponse, or where the virus barely has access to cells due individual or population mutations where it can kind of get in cells, but not spread as much and the immune cells are like whatever we'll just clean out the garbage, but there's still some kind of titer present.
How does a vaccine help in that kind of circumstance?
Is it just the knowledge of: hey, I KNOW I'm immunized because of vaccination so I shouldn't become a reservoir that can spread like crazy, or is it something more?
What about the one where the virus does secret damage to you without you noticing because you're not getting sick (aka your immune system isn't going haywire)? Is it again, the fact that you've done your civic duty so to speak?
I don't know if we have any virologists in this thread, I'm certainly not one. With my basic knowledge I can't answer all of your questions. It appears that some of your questions pertain to the immune response being innate rather than adaptive? In that case I recommend reading this article from last April:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/immune-system-fight-off-disease-coronavirus-covid19-pandemic/
To your second question, how does a vaccine help when the immune response is already sufficient? Well, to my knowledge it doesn't. But to know your immune response you'd have to get infected by the virus and monitored, and doing that intentionally would be unethical. So instead the logical course of action would be to get vaccinated to create an adaptive response to sars-cov-2 just in case you're not already immune. If you are indeed immune to the virus, the vaccine won't be able to harm you. Whereas if you're not immune, getting vaccinated would be the obvious choice because it's considered safe, whereas covid-19 is considered unsafe.
Also, if we assume that your immune response is insufficient to stop the infection, but your health status is so good that you're likely able to fight it off, then getting vaccinated still makes perfect sense. The immune system is your body's first line of defense, health status is second. So the combination of getting vaccinated with your overall health would - under those assumptions - all but guarantee survival, while not getting vaccinated would leave the door open to death or more likely to a severe course of the disease, which isn't pleasant either from all the things I've read about it, and can last for weeks. Meanwhile most side effects from the vaccine are mild and relatively brief, and none so far have been deadly.
Lastly, assuming that you can asymptomatically fight off the disease (without being immune to the infection) the first time, that doesn't mean it'll be the same thing next time, or the time after that, etc. If you're not immune, your risk of complications that can lead to severe symptoms or death is dramatically enhanced. Overall the better bet would be to bank on your immune system doing a better job so your health doesn't even get tested in the first place.
And that's assuming you only care about yourself and not others (I'm not trying to start a moral or philosophical debate with this). If you also worry about other people's health, then drastically enhancing the odds of immunity should partially relieve you of your worries.
And looking at the covid-19 data so far, the numbers speak for themselves. I would honestly not bank on any single person being the exception. Not myself and not anyone else. I'll give the same advice to everyone. If you haven't had covid-19 before, then by all means you only stand to gain from getting vaccinated. And if you had it, you should still probably get vaccinated at some point, because we aren't sure yet how long immunity lasts.
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On January 07 2021 03:34 Uldridge wrote:
I'm talking about a hypothetical since someone brought up an asymptomatic scenario.
I don't know if I'll be asymptomatic, I don't know I don't need a vaccine, I don't know I'm not a spreader. Because no one knows.
All I said was that I'm very healthy which means I think I'm not in immediate need for a vaccine so I'm in no hurry to get one. I'll eventually get one, but I won't scream to get one ASAP.
As my own giant anecdotal biased evidence self said earlier, I've been practising social distancing and wearing a face mask since march and have never been healthier. It's not a guarantee I won't get the disease literally tomorrow or be a spreader, but if I was a spreader I would have been asymptomatc (since I haven't felt sick yet last year) so then I question the effectivity of the vaccine for me personally since either I already have antibodies or my body isn't really a vessel for Sars-cov2.
Again, I'm not against vaccination, I just don't feel like I need one ASAP.
That argument makes perfect sense. I also won't get vaccinated as one of the first people, instead I'll wait until all the key demographics are covered. That's a strategic decision because - as someone who lives a relatively isolated life and is in good enough health - I rather take the small risk of infection than steal the spot from someone who's more likely to spread the virus than I am.
Although seeing the disastrous distribution strategy in various countries as well as overall attitude towards the covid-19 vaccines, I should consider that as well. Depending on how that goes I may want to get my jab sooner.
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I think it would be easier to convince people who are anxious about the vaccine to offer them an antibody test to see if they need a vaccine and to help along the herd immunity by saving it for someone else.
I think I was exposed to it back in March but I have no idea.
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I got vaccinated with the first shot of the Pfizer vaccine today. Didn't feel anything except slight pain on the site of injection, which is normal. I'm gonna read the instructions of the vaccine now. In 21 days I'll get the second shot and get this over with.
This doesn't change anything for me. I'll still keep every safety measure possible after I get the second shot, but it's a milestone for the future. Due to Covid I got in a long distance relationship with a girl from Japan. So we both will be traveling in the near future, so the vaccine timing couldn't be better. I only hope that more people get vaccinated so even if it doesn't end the pandemic in the near future, if even there is a moderate positive effect on the pandemic, it's still worth it.
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On January 06 2021 22:51 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 21:26 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 20:37 warding wrote:By now we know for a fact that unless we vaccinate ~80% of the population ASAP, then 0.4% to 0.8% of the population of each country is going to die (0.5%-1% IFR times 80% HIT). We know the worst side effects are seen in the weeks immediately after immunisation. We didn't see anything serious in several phase 3 clinical trials with hundreds of thousands of people all together. We have so far vaccinated 14 million people around the world. So far, as far as we know none have experienced serious side effects. If not vaccinated, we would expect 50 000 to 100 000 deaths from those 14 million people. I'd say it's probably the most lopsided cost benefit analysis I've ever seen. As far as long-term side effects, what vaccines have caused serious long-term side effects at a significant rate (that would even make us reconsider the above-mentioned cost-benefit analysis)? Haven't all the claims of vaccination causing autism and diabetes been debunked? We now have 20 vaccines in or past phase 3 trials and apparently none of them have experienced significant safety issues and so far all seem to work (with the exception of Sanofi's for 55 year olds?). I'd say it's increasingly looking like we're actually being way too cautiuous about vaccines, not too little. For approved vaccines, the only acceptable logic I think there would be for refusing one is if you know you have been infected in the past, and know from a serological test that you already are immune. Sure, in that case wait 6-12 months before taking the vaccine, your immunity probably is going to hold up. For everyone else, it's not even about being selfish, it's just ignorance. On January 06 2021 20:22 BlackJack wrote:
Everything I had read about drug development before this past year was that most drugs fail in clinical trials, take many years to produce, cost billions of dollars, etc. Now we have 3 first-of-its-kind vaccines developed by 3 different companies and all approved in a matter of months. If they didn't cut any corners that is truly remarkable. Or maybe something was truly remarkably wrong about the clinical trial and drug approval process. Or injecting billions on a scientific/technical problem sometimes actually works. It's like when wars cause countries to heavily invest on R&D and all of a sudden the rate of scientific and engineering progress increases at a way faster rate. Nothing like a good incentive. As for long-term side effects, I assume you are aware that the vaccines being used now are inherently different than all the other vaccines we've ever used. Here's a post a couple pages back from a user against taking the vaccine On December 29 2020 18:24 BerserkSword wrote:
I will not take it under any circumstance.
The idea of getting my own cells to produce a Covid 19 protein in order to agitate the immune system is not something I am comfortable doing, especially based on the fact that this is the first mRNA vaccine administered to the community and done so as an emergency act (emergency authorization entails less rigorous testing than a real FDA approval, for example).
I do not want anything to do with any potential autoimmune dysfunction. Autoimmune diseases are terrible. They are relatively poorly understood, extremely difficult to treat, and affect multiple organ systems. The morbidity is high. On the other hand, I'm in an extremely low risk group when it comes to COVID 19. On top of that, one of my parents unfortunately has an autoimmune disease since the age of 13, which means I am probably genetically predisposed to autoimmune dysfunction.
That seems like a completely reasonable take. As a person that has an autoimmune disease I can attest they aren't fun. But yeah as a cost-benefit analysis of COVID vs the vaccine it seems obviously better for everyone to take the vaccine. I even said as much in a response to LegalLord a couple pages back, "Beats dying of COVID." The point is that having reservations about the vaccine isn't purely from "ignorance" or from anti-vaxxer loonies. In fact most people here that have had reservations about the vaccine also said they were willing to take it. Technically it's a reasonable take. However, it's also a misinformed take. The "covid-19 protein" is a spike protein which hasn't shown to harm the human host. The protein has no ability to reproduce. When it's removed from the host's system it no longer poses a threat. So the only window for it to cause harm would be from the moment of cell infiltration until complete eradication of the protein. This means up until a few weeks after the injection there must be signs of permanent harm - and so far there aren't any, even several months later. This means the nature of the spike protein doesn't make the mRNA vaccines dangerous in any way. Also, the infiltration of the cells isn't harmful either, because the human DNA is not being altered.
As BerserkSword said, autoimmune diseases are not well understood. We don't even really know what causes them to manifest in the first place, and they manifest at seemingly random times in different individuals. Some people get diagnosed as teenagers and others get diagnosed in their 50's. I don't know how you can say conclusively that there is 0 risk of causing autoimmune dysfunction from an mRNA vaccine when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243.pdf?origin=ppub&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplink
A possible concern
could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms
induce potent type I interferon responses, which have
been associated not only with inflammation but also
potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, identification
of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken.
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On January 07 2021 08:35 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2021 08:33 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 22:51 Magic Powers wrote:On January 06 2021 21:26 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 20:37 warding wrote:By now we know for a fact that unless we vaccinate ~80% of the population ASAP, then 0.4% to 0.8% of the population of each country is going to die (0.5%-1% IFR times 80% HIT). We know the worst side effects are seen in the weeks immediately after immunisation. We didn't see anything serious in several phase 3 clinical trials with hundreds of thousands of people all together. We have so far vaccinated 14 million people around the world. So far, as far as we know none have experienced serious side effects. If not vaccinated, we would expect 50 000 to 100 000 deaths from those 14 million people. I'd say it's probably the most lopsided cost benefit analysis I've ever seen. As far as long-term side effects, what vaccines have caused serious long-term side effects at a significant rate (that would even make us reconsider the above-mentioned cost-benefit analysis)? Haven't all the claims of vaccination causing autism and diabetes been debunked? We now have 20 vaccines in or past phase 3 trials and apparently none of them have experienced significant safety issues and so far all seem to work (with the exception of Sanofi's for 55 year olds?). I'd say it's increasingly looking like we're actually being way too cautiuous about vaccines, not too little. For approved vaccines, the only acceptable logic I think there would be for refusing one is if you know you have been infected in the past, and know from a serological test that you already are immune. Sure, in that case wait 6-12 months before taking the vaccine, your immunity probably is going to hold up. For everyone else, it's not even about being selfish, it's just ignorance. On January 06 2021 20:22 BlackJack wrote:
Everything I had read about drug development before this past year was that most drugs fail in clinical trials, take many years to produce, cost billions of dollars, etc. Now we have 3 first-of-its-kind vaccines developed by 3 different companies and all approved in a matter of months. If they didn't cut any corners that is truly remarkable. Or maybe something was truly remarkably wrong about the clinical trial and drug approval process. Or injecting billions on a scientific/technical problem sometimes actually works. It's like when wars cause countries to heavily invest on R&D and all of a sudden the rate of scientific and engineering progress increases at a way faster rate. Nothing like a good incentive. As for long-term side effects, I assume you are aware that the vaccines being used now are inherently different than all the other vaccines we've ever used. Here's a post a couple pages back from a user against taking the vaccine On December 29 2020 18:24 BerserkSword wrote:
I will not take it under any circumstance.
The idea of getting my own cells to produce a Covid 19 protein in order to agitate the immune system is not something I am comfortable doing, especially based on the fact that this is the first mRNA vaccine administered to the community and done so as an emergency act (emergency authorization entails less rigorous testing than a real FDA approval, for example).
I do not want anything to do with any potential autoimmune dysfunction. Autoimmune diseases are terrible. They are relatively poorly understood, extremely difficult to treat, and affect multiple organ systems. The morbidity is high. On the other hand, I'm in an extremely low risk group when it comes to COVID 19. On top of that, one of my parents unfortunately has an autoimmune disease since the age of 13, which means I am probably genetically predisposed to autoimmune dysfunction.
That seems like a completely reasonable take. As a person that has an autoimmune disease I can attest they aren't fun. But yeah as a cost-benefit analysis of COVID vs the vaccine it seems obviously better for everyone to take the vaccine. I even said as much in a response to LegalLord a couple pages back, "Beats dying of COVID." The point is that having reservations about the vaccine isn't purely from "ignorance" or from anti-vaxxer loonies. In fact most people here that have had reservations about the vaccine also said they were willing to take it. Technically it's a reasonable take. However, it's also a misinformed take. The "covid-19 protein" is a spike protein which hasn't shown to harm the human host. The protein has no ability to reproduce. When it's removed from the host's system it no longer poses a threat. So the only window for it to cause harm would be from the moment of cell infiltration until complete eradication of the protein. This means up until a few weeks after the injection there must be signs of permanent harm - and so far there aren't any, even several months later. This means the nature of the spike protein doesn't make the mRNA vaccines dangerous in any way. Also, the infiltration of the cells isn't harmful either, because the human DNA is not being altered. As BerserkSword said, autoimmune diseases are not well understood. We don't even really know what causes them to manifest in the first place, and they manifest at seemingly random times in different individuals. Some people get diagnosed as teenagers and others get diagnosed in their 50's. I don't know how you can say conclusively that there is 0 risk of causing autoimmune dysfunction from an mRNA vaccine when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243.pdf?origin=ppub&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplinkA possible concern
could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms
induce potent type I interferon responses, which have
been associated not only with inflammation but also
potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, identification
of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken. You can't use that logic because it will also be right to say that apples might cause autoimmune dysfunction when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place.
Other than the fact that one is a man-made pharmaceutical specifically designed to agitate the immune system and the other is a fruit - the bigger point being that we have thousands of years to notice a correlation between eating apples and health complications, whereas we've had only months to do the same for the COVID-19 vaccine.
If your position is that there is no evidence that COVID-19 vaccines can cause long-term complications, I hope we can all agree this to be true unless someone is able to prove the existence of time machines.
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On January 07 2021 08:33 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2021 22:51 Magic Powers wrote:On January 06 2021 21:26 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 20:37 warding wrote:By now we know for a fact that unless we vaccinate ~80% of the population ASAP, then 0.4% to 0.8% of the population of each country is going to die (0.5%-1% IFR times 80% HIT). We know the worst side effects are seen in the weeks immediately after immunisation. We didn't see anything serious in several phase 3 clinical trials with hundreds of thousands of people all together. We have so far vaccinated 14 million people around the world. So far, as far as we know none have experienced serious side effects. If not vaccinated, we would expect 50 000 to 100 000 deaths from those 14 million people. I'd say it's probably the most lopsided cost benefit analysis I've ever seen. As far as long-term side effects, what vaccines have caused serious long-term side effects at a significant rate (that would even make us reconsider the above-mentioned cost-benefit analysis)? Haven't all the claims of vaccination causing autism and diabetes been debunked? We now have 20 vaccines in or past phase 3 trials and apparently none of them have experienced significant safety issues and so far all seem to work (with the exception of Sanofi's for 55 year olds?). I'd say it's increasingly looking like we're actually being way too cautiuous about vaccines, not too little. For approved vaccines, the only acceptable logic I think there would be for refusing one is if you know you have been infected in the past, and know from a serological test that you already are immune. Sure, in that case wait 6-12 months before taking the vaccine, your immunity probably is going to hold up. For everyone else, it's not even about being selfish, it's just ignorance. On January 06 2021 20:22 BlackJack wrote:
Everything I had read about drug development before this past year was that most drugs fail in clinical trials, take many years to produce, cost billions of dollars, etc. Now we have 3 first-of-its-kind vaccines developed by 3 different companies and all approved in a matter of months. If they didn't cut any corners that is truly remarkable. Or maybe something was truly remarkably wrong about the clinical trial and drug approval process. Or injecting billions on a scientific/technical problem sometimes actually works. It's like when wars cause countries to heavily invest on R&D and all of a sudden the rate of scientific and engineering progress increases at a way faster rate. Nothing like a good incentive. As for long-term side effects, I assume you are aware that the vaccines being used now are inherently different than all the other vaccines we've ever used. Here's a post a couple pages back from a user against taking the vaccine On December 29 2020 18:24 BerserkSword wrote:
I will not take it under any circumstance.
The idea of getting my own cells to produce a Covid 19 protein in order to agitate the immune system is not something I am comfortable doing, especially based on the fact that this is the first mRNA vaccine administered to the community and done so as an emergency act (emergency authorization entails less rigorous testing than a real FDA approval, for example).
I do not want anything to do with any potential autoimmune dysfunction. Autoimmune diseases are terrible. They are relatively poorly understood, extremely difficult to treat, and affect multiple organ systems. The morbidity is high. On the other hand, I'm in an extremely low risk group when it comes to COVID 19. On top of that, one of my parents unfortunately has an autoimmune disease since the age of 13, which means I am probably genetically predisposed to autoimmune dysfunction.
That seems like a completely reasonable take. As a person that has an autoimmune disease I can attest they aren't fun. But yeah as a cost-benefit analysis of COVID vs the vaccine it seems obviously better for everyone to take the vaccine. I even said as much in a response to LegalLord a couple pages back, "Beats dying of COVID." The point is that having reservations about the vaccine isn't purely from "ignorance" or from anti-vaxxer loonies. In fact most people here that have had reservations about the vaccine also said they were willing to take it. Technically it's a reasonable take. However, it's also a misinformed take. The "covid-19 protein" is a spike protein which hasn't shown to harm the human host. The protein has no ability to reproduce. When it's removed from the host's system it no longer poses a threat. So the only window for it to cause harm would be from the moment of cell infiltration until complete eradication of the protein. This means up until a few weeks after the injection there must be signs of permanent harm - and so far there aren't any, even several months later. This means the nature of the spike protein doesn't make the mRNA vaccines dangerous in any way. Also, the infiltration of the cells isn't harmful either, because the human DNA is not being altered. As BerserkSword said, autoimmune diseases are not well understood. We don't even really know what causes them to manifest in the first place, and they manifest at seemingly random times in different individuals. Some people get diagnosed as teenagers and others get diagnosed in their 50's. I don't know how you can say conclusively that there is 0 risk of causing autoimmune dysfunction from an mRNA vaccine when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243.pdf?origin=ppub&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplinkShow nested quote +A possible concern
could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms
induce potent type I interferon responses, which have
been associated not only with inflammation but also
potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, identification
of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken.
If you're afraid of the spike protein that is produced from mRNA vaccination, then you'd also have to be afraid of the spike protein from a regular covid-19 infection.
The true infection rate for covid-19 is much higher than the reported rate by an estimated factor of around 6.2. Estimates range from 10-20% of people in (some) developed countries to have been infected. Now, despite all the lockdowns there's still a high chance of getting infected (especially in densely populated areas), so I'd consider getting mRNA vaccination the safer option as the risk of serious complications is close to zero, which is not the case for covid-19. Even if you live in a less densely populated area like a rural region you may be well advised to get the vaccine because healthcare options are more limited, which can result in more severe complications after an infection.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.200909#:~:text=These findings indicate that, on,CI: 4.3–10.9).
Even ignoring the chance of death, a severe course of the disease could potentially result in long-term health issues. I don't know if the unknown chance of the spike protein from vaccination causing harm outweighs that.
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On January 07 2021 09:41 Magic Powers wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2021 08:33 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 22:51 Magic Powers wrote:On January 06 2021 21:26 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 20:37 warding wrote:By now we know for a fact that unless we vaccinate ~80% of the population ASAP, then 0.4% to 0.8% of the population of each country is going to die (0.5%-1% IFR times 80% HIT). We know the worst side effects are seen in the weeks immediately after immunisation. We didn't see anything serious in several phase 3 clinical trials with hundreds of thousands of people all together. We have so far vaccinated 14 million people around the world. So far, as far as we know none have experienced serious side effects. If not vaccinated, we would expect 50 000 to 100 000 deaths from those 14 million people. I'd say it's probably the most lopsided cost benefit analysis I've ever seen. As far as long-term side effects, what vaccines have caused serious long-term side effects at a significant rate (that would even make us reconsider the above-mentioned cost-benefit analysis)? Haven't all the claims of vaccination causing autism and diabetes been debunked? We now have 20 vaccines in or past phase 3 trials and apparently none of them have experienced significant safety issues and so far all seem to work (with the exception of Sanofi's for 55 year olds?). I'd say it's increasingly looking like we're actually being way too cautiuous about vaccines, not too little. For approved vaccines, the only acceptable logic I think there would be for refusing one is if you know you have been infected in the past, and know from a serological test that you already are immune. Sure, in that case wait 6-12 months before taking the vaccine, your immunity probably is going to hold up. For everyone else, it's not even about being selfish, it's just ignorance. On January 06 2021 20:22 BlackJack wrote:
Everything I had read about drug development before this past year was that most drugs fail in clinical trials, take many years to produce, cost billions of dollars, etc. Now we have 3 first-of-its-kind vaccines developed by 3 different companies and all approved in a matter of months. If they didn't cut any corners that is truly remarkable. Or maybe something was truly remarkably wrong about the clinical trial and drug approval process. Or injecting billions on a scientific/technical problem sometimes actually works. It's like when wars cause countries to heavily invest on R&D and all of a sudden the rate of scientific and engineering progress increases at a way faster rate. Nothing like a good incentive. As for long-term side effects, I assume you are aware that the vaccines being used now are inherently different than all the other vaccines we've ever used. Here's a post a couple pages back from a user against taking the vaccine On December 29 2020 18:24 BerserkSword wrote:
I will not take it under any circumstance.
The idea of getting my own cells to produce a Covid 19 protein in order to agitate the immune system is not something I am comfortable doing, especially based on the fact that this is the first mRNA vaccine administered to the community and done so as an emergency act (emergency authorization entails less rigorous testing than a real FDA approval, for example).
I do not want anything to do with any potential autoimmune dysfunction. Autoimmune diseases are terrible. They are relatively poorly understood, extremely difficult to treat, and affect multiple organ systems. The morbidity is high. On the other hand, I'm in an extremely low risk group when it comes to COVID 19. On top of that, one of my parents unfortunately has an autoimmune disease since the age of 13, which means I am probably genetically predisposed to autoimmune dysfunction.
That seems like a completely reasonable take. As a person that has an autoimmune disease I can attest they aren't fun. But yeah as a cost-benefit analysis of COVID vs the vaccine it seems obviously better for everyone to take the vaccine. I even said as much in a response to LegalLord a couple pages back, "Beats dying of COVID." The point is that having reservations about the vaccine isn't purely from "ignorance" or from anti-vaxxer loonies. In fact most people here that have had reservations about the vaccine also said they were willing to take it. Technically it's a reasonable take. However, it's also a misinformed take. The "covid-19 protein" is a spike protein which hasn't shown to harm the human host. The protein has no ability to reproduce. When it's removed from the host's system it no longer poses a threat. So the only window for it to cause harm would be from the moment of cell infiltration until complete eradication of the protein. This means up until a few weeks after the injection there must be signs of permanent harm - and so far there aren't any, even several months later. This means the nature of the spike protein doesn't make the mRNA vaccines dangerous in any way. Also, the infiltration of the cells isn't harmful either, because the human DNA is not being altered. As BerserkSword said, autoimmune diseases are not well understood. We don't even really know what causes them to manifest in the first place, and they manifest at seemingly random times in different individuals. Some people get diagnosed as teenagers and others get diagnosed in their 50's. I don't know how you can say conclusively that there is 0 risk of causing autoimmune dysfunction from an mRNA vaccine when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243.pdf?origin=ppub&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplinkA possible concern
could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms
induce potent type I interferon responses, which have
been associated not only with inflammation but also
potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, identification
of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken. If you're afraid of the spike protein that is produced from mRNA vaccination, then you'd also have to be afraid of the spike protein from a regular covid-19 infection. The true infection rate for covid-19 is much higher than the reported rate by an estimated factor of around 6.2. Estimates range from 10-20% of people in (some) developed countries to have been infected. Now, despite all the lockdowns there's still a high chance of getting infected (especially in densely populated areas), so I'd consider getting mRNA vaccination the safer option as the risk of serious complications is close to zero, which is not the case for covid-19. Even if you live in a less densely populated area like a rural region you may be well advised to get the vaccine because healthcare options are more limited, which can result in more severe complications after an infection. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.200909#:~:text=These findings indicate that, on,CI: 4.3–10.9). Even ignoring the chance of death, a severe course of the disease could potentially result in long-term health issues. I don't know if the unknown chance of the spike protein from vaccination causing harm outweighs that.
The cost-benefit approach has been discussed numerous times over the last few pages. I think everyone is in agreement that any side effects from the vaccine would be way less bad than what COVID is already doing.
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On January 07 2021 09:12 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2021 08:55 BlackJack wrote:On January 07 2021 08:35 JimmiC wrote:On January 07 2021 08:33 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 22:51 Magic Powers wrote:On January 06 2021 21:26 BlackJack wrote:On January 06 2021 20:37 warding wrote:By now we know for a fact that unless we vaccinate ~80% of the population ASAP, then 0.4% to 0.8% of the population of each country is going to die (0.5%-1% IFR times 80% HIT). We know the worst side effects are seen in the weeks immediately after immunisation. We didn't see anything serious in several phase 3 clinical trials with hundreds of thousands of people all together. We have so far vaccinated 14 million people around the world. So far, as far as we know none have experienced serious side effects. If not vaccinated, we would expect 50 000 to 100 000 deaths from those 14 million people. I'd say it's probably the most lopsided cost benefit analysis I've ever seen. As far as long-term side effects, what vaccines have caused serious long-term side effects at a significant rate (that would even make us reconsider the above-mentioned cost-benefit analysis)? Haven't all the claims of vaccination causing autism and diabetes been debunked? We now have 20 vaccines in or past phase 3 trials and apparently none of them have experienced significant safety issues and so far all seem to work (with the exception of Sanofi's for 55 year olds?). I'd say it's increasingly looking like we're actually being way too cautiuous about vaccines, not too little. For approved vaccines, the only acceptable logic I think there would be for refusing one is if you know you have been infected in the past, and know from a serological test that you already are immune. Sure, in that case wait 6-12 months before taking the vaccine, your immunity probably is going to hold up. For everyone else, it's not even about being selfish, it's just ignorance. On January 06 2021 20:22 BlackJack wrote:
Everything I had read about drug development before this past year was that most drugs fail in clinical trials, take many years to produce, cost billions of dollars, etc. Now we have 3 first-of-its-kind vaccines developed by 3 different companies and all approved in a matter of months. If they didn't cut any corners that is truly remarkable. Or maybe something was truly remarkably wrong about the clinical trial and drug approval process. Or injecting billions on a scientific/technical problem sometimes actually works. It's like when wars cause countries to heavily invest on R&D and all of a sudden the rate of scientific and engineering progress increases at a way faster rate. Nothing like a good incentive. As for long-term side effects, I assume you are aware that the vaccines being used now are inherently different than all the other vaccines we've ever used. Here's a post a couple pages back from a user against taking the vaccine On December 29 2020 18:24 BerserkSword wrote:
I will not take it under any circumstance.
The idea of getting my own cells to produce a Covid 19 protein in order to agitate the immune system is not something I am comfortable doing, especially based on the fact that this is the first mRNA vaccine administered to the community and done so as an emergency act (emergency authorization entails less rigorous testing than a real FDA approval, for example).
I do not want anything to do with any potential autoimmune dysfunction. Autoimmune diseases are terrible. They are relatively poorly understood, extremely difficult to treat, and affect multiple organ systems. The morbidity is high. On the other hand, I'm in an extremely low risk group when it comes to COVID 19. On top of that, one of my parents unfortunately has an autoimmune disease since the age of 13, which means I am probably genetically predisposed to autoimmune dysfunction.
That seems like a completely reasonable take. As a person that has an autoimmune disease I can attest they aren't fun. But yeah as a cost-benefit analysis of COVID vs the vaccine it seems obviously better for everyone to take the vaccine. I even said as much in a response to LegalLord a couple pages back, "Beats dying of COVID." The point is that having reservations about the vaccine isn't purely from "ignorance" or from anti-vaxxer loonies. In fact most people here that have had reservations about the vaccine also said they were willing to take it. Technically it's a reasonable take. However, it's also a misinformed take. The "covid-19 protein" is a spike protein which hasn't shown to harm the human host. The protein has no ability to reproduce. When it's removed from the host's system it no longer poses a threat. So the only window for it to cause harm would be from the moment of cell infiltration until complete eradication of the protein. This means up until a few weeks after the injection there must be signs of permanent harm - and so far there aren't any, even several months later. This means the nature of the spike protein doesn't make the mRNA vaccines dangerous in any way. Also, the infiltration of the cells isn't harmful either, because the human DNA is not being altered. As BerserkSword said, autoimmune diseases are not well understood. We don't even really know what causes them to manifest in the first place, and they manifest at seemingly random times in different individuals. Some people get diagnosed as teenagers and others get diagnosed in their 50's. I don't know how you can say conclusively that there is 0 risk of causing autoimmune dysfunction from an mRNA vaccine when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place. https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243.pdf?origin=ppub&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_source=commission_junction&utm_campaign=3_nsn6445_deeplink_PID100045715&utm_content=deeplinkA possible concern
could be that some mRNA-based vaccine platforms
induce potent type I interferon responses, which have
been associated not only with inflammation but also
potentially with autoimmunity. Thus, identification
of individuals at an increased risk of autoimmune reactions before mRNA vaccination may allow reasonable precautions to be taken. You can't use that logic because it will also be right to say that apples might cause autoimmune dysfunction when we don't even really know what causes autoimmune dysfunction in the first place. Other than the fact that one is a man-made pharmaceutical specifically designed to agitate the immune system and the other is a fruit - the bigger point being that we have thousands of years to notice a correlation between eating apples and health complications, whereas we've had only months to do the same for the COVID-19 vaccine. If your position is that there is no evidence that COVID-19 vaccines can cause long-term complications, I hope we can all agree this to be true unless someone is able to prove the existence of time machines. No my point was that no proof that it is not is not Amy proof that it is and it the root problem with conspiracy thinking. If the apple example didn't work for you maybe 5g will.
A hallmark of conspiracy thinking is only being receptive to information that conforms with the narrative you want to believe and rejecting all the information that doesn't. Magic Powers made a bold claim that any complication from the COVID-19 vaccine would have to manifest within the first few weeks after getting the injection. Certainly possible, although unproven. Nobody here is surprised that you let such a bold claim fly completely under the radar without scrutiny, but my response, which was basically a long-winded "you can't know that for sure," immediately drew your objection. If only you showed some nuance in your positions or some willingness to analyze anything objectively...
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EPT
