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On December 28 2020 05:48 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2020 01:59 Anc13nt wrote:On December 28 2020 00:01 Slydie wrote:I would rather compare the mental health of groups large wearing more and less masks instead of individuals. Personally, it not seeing the faces of others is a much bigger issue than wearing the mask myself. That masks is indeed not enough to stop infections is mentioned once more. I doubt if a single person in Spain isn't breaking the safe mask-wearing guidelines multiple times every day. How can you possibly wash your hands that much and also avoid touching it? Masks are overrated. Period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_masks_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Efficacy_studies_for_COVID-19Saying masks are overrated is like saying condoms are overrated then proceeding to have unprotected sex. No, it isn't. I have said it before, if condoms were so difficult to use correctly the country in Europe with the most condom use also had the most sexually transmitted diseases, yes, they would be very bad. To illustrate the madness: If you are asymptomatic and the face mask works, there WILL be virus on it. Hence, every time you touch any part of your mask, it is of extreme importance to keep your hands clean. Also, if your hands are infected and you touch your mask, you can get infected. They MUST be worn correctly to be effective, this is very known knowledge. The problem is that legislation focuses on MASKS ON, and some misguided (imo) legislators even punish with fines and force the population to wear them in as many situations as physically and legally possible. What do you get? Certainly not an effective tool fighting the virus! -You would have to wash your hands up to hundreds of times a day. Accidentally touched your mask because it fell off in the wind? Wash. Cigarette break? Wash before and after. Reposition a mask falling below your face? Wash before and after. Take a bit or sip of food? Wash before and after etc. etc. etc. Nobody does this, and it should not surprise anyone that facemask use has not saved any country from locking down after a significant first outbreak. Instead of wearing it correctly, pure idiocy occurs, where people are more concerned about covering their face than anything else, holding masks with both hands in front of their mouth etc. Bartenders, shopkeepers etc move around a lot, and end up touching their masks all the time, and then move on to plates, cups, food and groceries. No, of course they don't have time to wash their hands every other minute. I would absolutely feel a lot safer if they just didn't wear them. Masks also create an incredible sense of false security. No, you can NOT move closer wearing a mask, but distancing, which is much more important, tends to go out the window. I just saw the results from another lab test where mask were proved effective. In a lab it probably was, but real life conditions is a whole different ballgame. The whole year, people in western countries have applauded stricter mask laws, but have those laws saved any of them from imposing lockdowns or other crippling measures? Of course not. They are not compatible with everyday life. Masks are overrated.
"The CDC highlighted several studies, including the hair stylists study, in their 10 November 2020 scientific brief detailing the community benefit of masking.[127] In a study of 124 Beijing households with at least one laboratory-confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 infection, mask use by the index patient and family contacts before the index patient developed symptoms reduced secondary transmission within the households by 79%.[128] A retrospective case-control study from Thailand documented that, among more than 1,000 persons interviewed as part of contact tracing investigations, those who reported having always worn a mask during high-risk exposures experienced a greater than 70% reduced risk of acquiring infection compared with persons who did not wear masks under these circumstances.[129] A study of an outbreak aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, an environment notable for congregate living quarters and close working environments, found that use of face coverings on-board was associated with a 70% reduced risk.[130] Investigations involving infected passengers aboard flights longer than 10 hours strongly suggest that masking prevented in-flight transmissions, as demonstrated by the absence of infection developing in other passengers and crew in the 14 days following exposure.[131] In addition, the CDC stated that the benefit of universal masking, including reductions in infections and mortality, has been demonstrated in community-level analyses by a set of studies involving the Massachusetts hospital system, the German city Jena, the American state Arizona, a panel of 15 American states and Washington, D.C., Canada nationally, and the United States nationally.[127]"
Doesn't seem you have read the article. Face masks result in 70% reduction of risk of transmission despite all the potential flaws you have mentioned so you can rattle off as many flaws as you want but it does not change the outcome of these studies. If you want to criticize the studies themselves though, that is fair game.
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Doesn't seem you have read the article. Face masks result in 70% reduction of risk of transmission despite all the potential flaws you have mentioned so you can rattle off as many flaws as you want but it does not change the outcome of these studies. If you want to criticize the studies themselves though, that is fair game
Note that that number was from "high risk situations". Unfortunately, governments believe they can just slap masks on people in EVERY situation and expect a 70% reduction, which is absolute rubbish.
I don't mind masks in situations where they are needed, surgeons and dentists have always worn them (correctly) for good reasons. Long trips in public transport and other situations where you are less than 1m away from strangers for many hours inside is such a situation.
The enormous 2nd wave of infections in Spain were exactly what politicians wanted to avoid when obliging masks in the early summer. That 70% reduction is nowhere to be found, and they eventually had to resort to what actually works: strict limitations on social gatherings and domestic travel.
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On December 25 2020 18:03 SC-Shield wrote:
Are you guys gonna take a COVID-19 vaccine? If so, which one do you prefer? I see a lot of anti-vaxxers due to quickly developed vaccines and the usual microchip conspiracy.
I won't take an mRNA one. and it has nothing to do with a microchip conspiracy theory
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On December 28 2020 18:49 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On December 25 2020 18:03 SC-Shield wrote:
Are you guys gonna take a COVID-19 vaccine? If so, which one do you prefer? I see a lot of anti-vaxxers due to quickly developed vaccines and the usual microchip conspiracy. I won't take an mRNA one. and it has nothing to do with a microchip conspiracy theory
I can understand if you are uncomfortable with taking it until many others have and it is confirmed beyond all doubt to be safe, if that is what you mean. Otherwise, if you mean that you will not take it under any circumstance, I would like to ask why.
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On December 28 2020 05:48 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2020 01:59 Anc13nt wrote:On December 28 2020 00:01 Slydie wrote:I would rather compare the mental health of groups large wearing more and less masks instead of individuals. Personally, it not seeing the faces of others is a much bigger issue than wearing the mask myself. That masks is indeed not enough to stop infections is mentioned once more. I doubt if a single person in Spain isn't breaking the safe mask-wearing guidelines multiple times every day. How can you possibly wash your hands that much and also avoid touching it? Masks are overrated. Period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_masks_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Efficacy_studies_for_COVID-19Saying masks are overrated is like saying condoms are overrated then proceeding to have unprotected sex. No, it isn't. I have said it before, if condoms were so difficult to use correctly the country in Europe with the most condom use also had the most sexually transmitted diseases, yes, they would be very bad. To illustrate the madness: If you are asymptomatic and the face mask works, there WILL be virus on it. Hence, every time you touch any part of your mask, it is of extreme importance to keep your hands clean. Also, if your hands are infected and you touch your mask, you can get infected. They MUST be worn correctly to be effective, this is very known knowledge. The problem is that legislation focuses on MASKS ON, and some misguided (imo) legislators even punish with fines and force the population to wear them in as many situations as physically and legally possible. What do you get? Certainly not an effective tool fighting the virus! -You would have to wash your hands up to hundreds of times a day. Accidentally touched your mask because it fell off in the wind? Wash. Cigarette break? Wash before and after. Reposition a mask falling below your face? Wash before and after. Take a bit or sip of food? Wash before and after etc. etc. etc. Nobody does this, and it should not surprise anyone that facemask use has not saved any country from locking down after a significant first outbreak. Instead of wearing it correctly, pure idiocy occurs, where people are more concerned about covering their face than anything else, holding masks with both hands in front of their mouth etc. Bartenders, shopkeepers etc move around a lot, and end up touching their masks all the time, and then move on to plates, cups, food and groceries. No, of course they don't have time to wash their hands every other minute. I would absolutely feel a lot safer if they just didn't wear them. Masks also create an incredible sense of false security. No, you can NOT move closer wearing a mask, but distancing, which is much more important, tends to go out the window. I just saw the results from another lab test where mask were proved effective. In a lab it probably was, but real life conditions is a whole different ballgame. The whole year, people in western countries have applauded stricter mask laws, but have those laws saved any of them from imposing lockdowns or other crippling measures? Of course not. They are not compatible with everyday life. Masks are overrated.
I find it kind of odd that you seem so afraid of possibly touching something that someone else may have touched after touching their mask that you'd prefer them to just not wear a mask altogether. Everything we know about COVID tells us we should be way more afraid of respiratory particles than contaminated surfaces. I'm pretty good at not touching my face and washing my hands so contaminated surfaces don't bother me at all.
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Another aspect of this is communication.
"Every should wear a mask as often as possible" is a lot easier to communicate compared to complex rules of usage. Even if those rules would be better if everyone adhered to them, the practical endresult might be a lot worse simply because people reject rules they don't comprehend, are confused about what they should do, or don't actually follow the more complex rules for other reasons.
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On December 28 2020 21:18 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On December 28 2020 05:48 Slydie wrote:On December 28 2020 01:59 Anc13nt wrote:On December 28 2020 00:01 Slydie wrote:I would rather compare the mental health of groups large wearing more and less masks instead of individuals. Personally, it not seeing the faces of others is a much bigger issue than wearing the mask myself. That masks is indeed not enough to stop infections is mentioned once more. I doubt if a single person in Spain isn't breaking the safe mask-wearing guidelines multiple times every day. How can you possibly wash your hands that much and also avoid touching it? Masks are overrated. Period. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Face_masks_during_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Efficacy_studies_for_COVID-19Saying masks are overrated is like saying condoms are overrated then proceeding to have unprotected sex. No, it isn't. I have said it before, if condoms were so difficult to use correctly the country in Europe with the most condom use also had the most sexually transmitted diseases, yes, they would be very bad. To illustrate the madness: If you are asymptomatic and the face mask works, there WILL be virus on it. Hence, every time you touch any part of your mask, it is of extreme importance to keep your hands clean. Also, if your hands are infected and you touch your mask, you can get infected. They MUST be worn correctly to be effective, this is very known knowledge. The problem is that legislation focuses on MASKS ON, and some misguided (imo) legislators even punish with fines and force the population to wear them in as many situations as physically and legally possible. What do you get? Certainly not an effective tool fighting the virus! -You would have to wash your hands up to hundreds of times a day. Accidentally touched your mask because it fell off in the wind? Wash. Cigarette break? Wash before and after. Reposition a mask falling below your face? Wash before and after. Take a bit or sip of food? Wash before and after etc. etc. etc. Nobody does this, and it should not surprise anyone that facemask use has not saved any country from locking down after a significant first outbreak. Instead of wearing it correctly, pure idiocy occurs, where people are more concerned about covering their face than anything else, holding masks with both hands in front of their mouth etc. Bartenders, shopkeepers etc move around a lot, and end up touching their masks all the time, and then move on to plates, cups, food and groceries. No, of course they don't have time to wash their hands every other minute. I would absolutely feel a lot safer if they just didn't wear them. Masks also create an incredible sense of false security. No, you can NOT move closer wearing a mask, but distancing, which is much more important, tends to go out the window. I just saw the results from another lab test where mask were proved effective. In a lab it probably was, but real life conditions is a whole different ballgame. The whole year, people in western countries have applauded stricter mask laws, but have those laws saved any of them from imposing lockdowns or other crippling measures? Of course not. They are not compatible with everyday life. Masks are overrated. I find it kind of odd that you seem so afraid of possibly touching something that someone else may have touched after touching their mask that you'd prefer them to just not wear a mask altogether. Everything we know about COVID tells us we should be way more afraid of respiratory particles than contaminated surfaces. I'm pretty good at not touching my face and washing my hands so contaminated surfaces don't bother me at all.
I find it funny how there are people who wear gloves to protect themselves from the virus, only to touch everything with those gloves, including their masks. :-P
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I've been seeing no more than 10 people on a weekly basis (I think the max has been 20 different people in a week since this March). Living in a small german city of 120000 population and 0 tourist attractions, I had zero reasons to get myself tested for anything.
It's been some time since I stopped believing that any of these measures actually work. With every single place that doesn't provide essential services closed and restaurants only being allowed for take-aways, Germany is still racking record high cases. It's either because a) all of this locking down shit doesn't work at all or b) people really don't want to get locked down anymore to the point of "Fuck all that lockdown shit. If I get covid, I get covid. End of story.".
Me, well... I think I just want to preserve what little gym progress I had in the past year. I'll continue to work out and diet at home and with luck, I'll be able to show it off this summer. If not... well, let's just say that I'd really like to have a nice long holiday in 2021.
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Norway28736 Posts
If no measures actually worked, then in an as interconnected world as we live in, shouldn't amount of infected be fairly similar for every equally densely populated area? There are huge regional differences, some of it cultural I'm sure, but certainly some is related to what measures are taken and to what degree people adhere to them.
I mean, while I think your 'a' is nonsense, I think your 'b' is fairly accurate. The measures obviously don't work if people don't adhere to them, and a fair amount of people are - understandably - very tired of putting their lives on hold. Frankly, if not for the vaccine already being out, I'd have a lot of sympathy for the 'fuck it'-crowd - if there was no end in sight, then maintaining morale would understandably be much harder.
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On December 29 2020 00:27 Liquid`Drone wrote:
If no measures actually worked, then in an as interconnected world as we live in, shouldn't amount of infected be fairly similar for every equally densely populated area? There are huge regional differences, some of it cultural I'm sure, but certainly some is related to what measures are taken and to what degree people adhere to them.
I mean, while I think your 'a' is nonsense, I think your 'b' is fairly accurate. The measures obviously don't work if people don't adhere to them, and a fair amount of people are - understandably - very tired of putting their lives on hold. Frankly, if not for the vaccine already being out, I'd have a lot of sympathy for the 'fuck it'-crowd - if there was no end in sight, then maintaining morale would understandably be much harder.
The “end in sight” is about as far away as the beginning, and it’s been a long, long nine months. A close look at vaccine logistics doesn’t give much hope for a quick deployment even with high prioritization, and we’ve been hearing “just wait for the vaccine, it’s almost here” for at least six months. Even the most patient people have every right to be frustrated with being asked to go on sacrificing.
It’s definitely interesting to me how similar the infection profile is if you look at just the US and Europe though. Lots of regional differences but evidently we had similar approaches with similar results. Sweden is a fantastic example of how bad policy can magnify death, since Norway and Finland serve as excellent analogues of the contrary.
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Norway28736 Posts
ya maybe it feels that way elsewhere. Where I live it's just like a.. 'we've managed really well so far, if we just keep it up for another 3 months then the high risk people will be vaccinated and we can go on with our lives without causing an explosion in deaths', and it feels dumb to have done a great job for 9 months (granted, between june and october, Covid wasn't part of my life other than making me use a lot more hand sanitizer) for then to put our guard down now.
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I don't think we're that far away fro mthe end of the tunnel, but that depends on where you are. We're still in 2020 and Israel has already vaccinated 4% of their population.
Depending on where you look in Europe or North America, by the end of March you'll easily have between 15% and 30% of the population infected. Add to that 20-30% of the population vaccinated by that time and we might be entering the second trimester with a decent level of immunity, meaning a lot fewer infections in the population. Not to mention hospitalizations and deaths plummeting once you get everyone 70 yo and up vaccinated, which should happen in the first trimester as well.
I think the EU has completely dropped the ball in building up capacity and buying up vaccines up to now. Hopefully a sense of urgency emerges once everyone realizes that most other developed nations are ahead of us.
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On December 29 2020 01:25 warding wrote:
I don't think we're that far away fro mthe end of the tunnel, but that depends on where you are. We're still in 2020 and Israel has already vaccinated 4% of their population.
Depending on where you look in Europe or North America, by the end of March you'll easily have between 15% and 30% of the population infected. Add to that 20-30% of the population vaccinated by that time and we might be entering the second trimester with a decent level of immunity, meaning a lot fewer infections in the population. Not to mention hospitalizations and deaths plummeting once you get everyone 70 yo and up vaccinated, which should happen in the first trimester as well.
I think the EU has completely dropped the ball in building up capacity and buying up vaccines up to now. Hopefully a sense of urgency emerges once everyone realizes that most other developed nations are ahead of us.
Not in the United States. According to Worldometer, we have about 20M total cases, out of 330M Americans, over the last 9 months. 20/330 = 6% of our population currently, and it'd be a stretch to even get to 10% of our population infected by late March. 10% infected is possible, but 15% definitely isn't (thankfully). My birthday is April 14th, and it looks like it'll be close to around 30-40% of the population being "temporarily immune" (vaccinated + recovered Americans) around my birthday, which is only about halfway to herd immunity (which is what actually matters).
Around summertime, vaccines will be publicly available for most American adults, and if trials for children can be cleared by around then, children can start getting vaccinated in the fall. I'm hoping that we can reach a reasonable level of immunity by the fall of 2021, but there's simply no way we're going to hit that by March/April. (Speaking only for the United States.) Keep in mind that a reasonable level of immunity is like 60-80%, not 30-40%.
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A U of Wa study estimates the vaccine will save about 10,000 US lives by April 1st. Not that much when we've been having 2k-3k fatalities daily. Of course the models/predictions have been worth jack since the start of this thing. I'm pretty optimistic. I think this wave will naturally crest at some point and the vaccine coverage will prevent any future waves. The next time we reopen everything will hopefully be permanent.
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Saving the Fall 2021 school year (ie mass vaccination completed by August) would be the ideal scenario. I am hopeful, but not very confident, that we can achieve that.
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On December 29 2020 06:28 LegalLord wrote:
Saving the Fall 2021 school year (ie mass vaccination completed by August) would be the ideal scenario. I am hopeful, but not very confident, that we can achieve that.
Given that administrations / boards of education have been applying pressure on teachers to go back to their schools all throughout the 2020-2021 school year, before a vaccine even existed, my prediction is that nearly every American public school will reopen at the beginning of the 2021-2022 school year, regardless of whether or not students have been cleared for vaccines. They'll think that teachers being vaccinated by then (which will have happened, thankfully) will be "good enough", and they'll be willing to risk the 90+% of the individuals in schools who haven't been vaccinated yet (mainly the children).
In the fall of 2021, schools will not be safe for students and their families, but they'll be reopened nonetheless.
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"Not safe for students" is a subjective statement. CDC deaths for children ages 5-14 show 50 deaths from COVID and 4,748 deaths from all causes. That's 50 deaths out of a source population of 41 million. Slightly more than 1 death per million children. The 15-24 Age group shows 468 COVID deaths and 30,531 deaths from all other causes. So of all the children that died last year, COVID caused maybe 1-2% of those deaths.
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
Some quick google searches and number crunching and I surmise that teenagers are roughly 10x as likely to die from suicide than COVID
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On December 29 2020 09:15 BlackJack wrote:"Not safe for students" is a subjective statement. CDC deaths for children ages 5-14 show 50 deaths from COVID and 4,748 deaths from all causes. That's 50 deaths out of a source population of 41 million. Slightly more than 1 death per million children. The 15-24 Age group shows 468 COVID deaths and 30,531 deaths from all other causes. So of all the children that died last year, COVID caused maybe 1-2% of those deaths. Source: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htmSome quick google searches and number crunching and I surmise that teenagers are roughly 10x as likely to die from suicide than COVID
Two things:
1. Students and their families, not just children. Even if children are asymptomatic, they can bring it home to their parents (or god forbid grandparents).
2. I absolutely hate when people only look at deaths as the only dangerous effect of coronavirus. It's misrepresenting statistics. Loss of senses, multiple organ failure, not being able to breathe, complications with additional diseases... it's not just a matter of dying vs. being totally fine.
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EPT
