EPTCoronavirus and You - Page 234
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Any and all updates regarding the COVID-19 will need a source provided. Please do your part in helping us to keep this thread maintainable and under control. It is YOUR responsibility to fully read through the sources that you link, and you MUST provide a brief summary explaining what the source is about. Do not expect other people to do the work for you. Conspiracy theories and fear mongering will absolutely not be tolerated in this thread. Expect harsh mod actions if you try to incite fear needlessly. This is not a politics thread! You are allowed to post information regarding politics if it's related to the coronavirus, but do NOT discuss politics in here. Added a disclaimer on page 662. Many need to post better. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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warding
Portugal2395 Posts
On August 19 2020 00:06 Mohdoo wrote: How are countries handling opening schools? In the US, a few states or areas have tried starting schools back up. Tons of examples of 100+ kids infected within the first week. The schools that are opening, seem to be closing pretty quickly. Here's how I see it: 1. College students have already shown they are not safe enough to re-open universities because they are wildly entitled and immature. 2. Students younger than college are probably not more trustworthy. 3. If students get sick, and we already know kids transmit well to adults, that means adults will get sick. 4. If adults are getting sick, businesses will have to close down again. Conclusion: Opening schools does not have the desired benefit of allowing more businesses to reopen. Where am I wrong? A lot of European countries opened schools in April and May. I don't remember any country backtracking on that or cases surging because of it. Then again, this was at a moment when community spread in Europe was already lower, way below what's happening today in the US. Then there's Sweden, where schools below high school never closed. Also, I don't thnk a single study proves 3. There have been studies showing high virus loads in children, but few of children spreading to adults. In fact, a few studies pointing to the opposite, but we can't yet make judgements on the few studies that exist so far. Also, to point 4, aren't adults getting sick now in the US? Like, the outbreaks we've been seeing in Georgia, Texas or Florida in the past weeks seem to be pretty much at the level of the most severe outbreaks elsewhere. | ||
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WombaT
Northern Ireland26784 Posts
On August 19 2020 00:06 Mohdoo wrote: How are countries handling opening schools? In the US, a few states or areas have tried starting schools back up. Tons of examples of 100+ kids infected within the first week. The schools that are opening, seem to be closing pretty quickly. Here's how I see it: 1. College students have already shown they are not safe enough to re-open universities because they are wildly entitled and immature. 2. Students younger than college are probably not more trustworthy. 3. If students get sick, and we already know kids transmit well to adults, that means adults will get sick. 4. If adults are getting sick, businesses will have to close down again. Conclusion: Opening schools does not have the desired benefit of allowing more businesses to reopen. Where am I wrong? Open them up, fuck it. Seems to basically be the order of the day here. This in the wake of a colossal fuckup with our exam results as students didn’t sit actually their exams. The TLDR being if you were poor and went to a relatively bad school you got downgraded via the predictive mode used. Must be a fucking great time to be a teenager indeed. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
Students are comparatively likely to suffer learning disorders, psychoses, abuse, malnutrition, and other bad effects should schools continue to remain closed. | ||
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Elroi
Sweden5600 Posts
On August 19 2020 00:06 Mohdoo wrote: How are countries handling opening schools? In the US, a few states or areas have tried starting schools back up. Tons of examples of 100+ kids infected within the first week. The schools that are opening, seem to be closing pretty quickly. Here's how I see it: 1. College students have already shown they are not safe enough to re-open universities because they are wildly entitled and immature. 2. Students younger than college are probably not more trustworthy. 3. If students get sick, and we already know kids transmit well to adults, that means adults will get sick. 4. If adults are getting sick, businesses will have to close down again. Conclusion: Opening schools does not have the desired benefit of allowing more businesses to reopen. Where am I wrong? Point 3: as far as I know it hasn't been proven that children spread the disease at all. And if they do, it is very very marginally. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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StalkerTL
212 Posts
It goes without saying, however, that appropriate measures need to be considered as children are not the only people in these environments. Adults are will operating around each other, engaging with each other and interacting with other adults in their day to day lives. And many teachers are in at risk age and health brackets. Children need to go to school but we also cannot believe that teachers are a commodity, despite most of America having zero respect for the profession. So the logical approach would be to have a population buy into doing small things to reduce the spread of coronavirus as well as strong government handling to ensure the spread is easily contained and actually under control. For most countries, opening schools in a limited capacity should work. As we’ve seen in Georgia, this is probably not the case in the USA because even superintendents can’t pull their heads out of their political asses and actually do the right thing. | ||
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BlueBird.
United States3890 Posts
I’m not a medical scientist but, If I could design a study to Definitively prove without a doubt kids spread disease is to lock non covid parents In a bubble and then put their positive kids in the bubble with them. Because it’s extremely unethical I can’t do this. We already know children can have coronavirus and can have tons of the genetic material in their upper respiratory system. Precautionary principle: they spread it. Show me some solid evidence they don’t though, I’m all ears. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On August 19 2020 00:34 warding wrote: A lot of European countries opened schools in April and May. I don't remember any country backtracking on that or cases surging because of it. Then again, this was at a moment when community spread in Europe was already lower, way below what's happening today in the US. Then there's Sweden, where schools below high school never closed. Also, I don't thnk a single study proves 3. There have been studies showing high virus loads in children, but few of children spreading to adults. In fact, a few studies pointing to the opposite, but we can't yet make judgements on the few studies that exist so far. Also, to point 4, aren't adults getting sick now in the US? Like, the outbreaks we've been seeing in Georgia, Texas or Florida in the past weeks seem to be pretty much at the level of the most severe outbreaks elsewhere. Starting position matters a lot for epidemiology. The current state of much of the US is incomparable to European countries that had schools open at like 5000 total cases. As I understand, Europe had no examples of 100 kids testing positive *days* after schools started. As I understand, the kinda of insane scenarios we are seeing in various parts of the US was simply not present for other European countries. As far as kids transmitting to adults, I guess we'll find out soon! | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
The driving force for closures is misinformation. The latest polling from Gallup/others showed Americans thought age 55+ accounted for half the deaths. It’s really 92% of deaths. They thought 44 and younger were around 33% of deaths. It’s actually 2.7%. And young children die around a hundred per million affected, way below flu and other contagions that do not close schools. | ||
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On August 19 2020 01:28 Mohdoo wrote: Starting position matters a lot for epidemiology. The current state of much of the US is incomparable to European countries that had schools open at like 5000 total cases. As I understand, Europe had no examples of 100 kids testing positive *days* after schools started. As I understand, the kinda of insane scenarios we are seeing in various parts of the US was simply not present for other European countries. As far as kids transmitting to adults, I guess we'll find out soon! Yeah the main issue I think is statistical. Even if kids are less likely to spread it than adults, if school starts with 10 kids positive, and just one is contagious(and from what I've seen, that one person will infect literally everybody they come in contact with), their teacher, janitor, all the other kids walking around the hallways and so on are going to be exposed. 2 weeks without action and probably half the school will be infected. On August 19 2020 03:14 Danglars wrote: I would suggest people google to find both the studies for and against school reopening, particularly elementary school reopening. I saw the weight of evidence behind protecting adults from spreading it among each other at schools and immediate reopening as for small children, and phased reopenings for teens. These are particularly from the European and Asian studies. The driving force for closures is misinformation. The latest polling from Gallup/others showed Americans thought age 55+ accounted for half the deaths. It’s really 92% of deaths. They thought 44 and younger were around 33% of deaths. It’s actually 2.7%. And young children die around a hundred per million affected, way below flu and other contagions that do not close schools. Deaths is a somewhat misleading statistic for this, young people aren't likely to die, but they can still have permanent QoL changes due to organ damage as a result of covid. It just seems to do an incredible amount of damage to everything for even moderate cases. Won't know for sure until years down the line, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a large drop in expected longevity for survivors of covid vs. vaccinated individuals. | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
On August 19 2020 03:14 Danglars wrote: I would suggest people google to find both the studies for and against school reopening, particularly elementary school reopening. I saw the weight of evidence behind protecting adults from spreading it among each other at schools and immediate reopening as for small children, and phased reopenings for teens. These are particularly from the European and Asian studies. The driving force for closures is misinformation. The latest polling from Gallup/others showed Americans thought age 55+ accounted for half the deaths. It’s really 92% of deaths. They thought 44 and younger were around 33% of deaths. It’s actually 2.7%. And young children die around a hundred per million affected, way below flu and other contagions that do not close schools. If it turns out kids effectively spread it to adults, it won't matter what the age distribution of deaths are. Its not like people don't mind killing their grandparents. Lots of kids live with grandparents. And since we know adults definitely transmit to each other, kids spreading to adults is GG. Tons of schools have already closed after being desperate to re-open. Doesn't that indicate it isn't going well? As I see it, these ridiculous policies and other forms of theater aimed at "preventing kids from spreading it to each other" is amazingly naive. Kids will spread it among themselves at school, no matter what, kids will be actively spreading it, if they are indeed able to. From there, once it becomes obvious whether or not kids give it to adult, that determines whether it is GG or not. I am glad Oregon is letting various states in the south be tests. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On August 19 2020 03:15 Amui wrote: Yeah the main issue I think is statistical. Even if kids are less likely to spread it than adults, if school starts with 10 kids positive, and just one is contagious(and from what I've seen, that one person will infect literally everybody they come in contact with), their teacher, janitor, all the other kids walking around the hallways and so on are going to be exposed. 2 weeks without action and probably half the school will be infected. Deaths is a somewhat misleading statistic for this, young people aren't likely to die, but they can still have permanent QoL changes due to organ damage as a result of covid. It just seems to do an incredible amount of damage to everything for even moderate cases. Won't know for sure until years down the line, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was a large drop in expected longevity for survivors of covid vs. vaccinated individuals. The evidence that children are particularly susceptible to anything long term is even less supported than teens having complications and spreading. Anecdotes are no substitute for actual research into children losing out on a year of education and social development. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Nevuk
United States16280 Posts
Some of the arguments to keep them open are a little shaky (for instance, free and reduced meals, some districts drove out and delivered them to the children's homes while the schools were closed. Nothing saying we couldn't do that nationwide). The sociological ones are a lot more relevant, and should need handled on year by year basis, imo. Some age groups need the socialization a lot more than others (particularly younger children). Of course, it also depends somewhat on the child's conditions and how soon we will get a vaccine - if it is in March or May, then we could theoretically have the schools open back up then for in-person classes, and not have a summer break, with a 5-6 month delay. Not perfect, but no solution we have right now is. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On August 19 2020 03:14 Danglars wrote: I would suggest people google to find both the studies for and against school reopening, particularly elementary school reopening. I saw the weight of evidence behind protecting adults from spreading it among each other at schools and immediate reopening as for small children, and phased reopenings for teens. These are particularly from the European and Asian studies. The driving force for closures is misinformation. The latest polling from Gallup/others showed Americans thought age 55+ accounted for half the deaths. It’s really 92% of deaths. They thought 44 and younger were around 33% of deaths. It’s actually 2.7%. And young children die around a hundred per million affected, way below flu and other contagions that do not close schools. I agree that there may be some misplaced worry and misinformation about the effect about of corona virus on the young, but safety of the young isn't (or rather, shouldn't be) the primary objective of closing schools. The primary objetive is to stop them from being vectors for the rest of the population, and relative death rates aren't relevant in that reguard. | ||
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NewSunshine
United States5938 Posts
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On August 19 2020 03:38 Sbrubbles wrote: I agree that there may be some misplaced worry and misinformation about the effect about of corona virus on the young, but safety of the young isn't (or rather, shouldn't be) the primary objective of closing schools. The primary objetive is to stop them from being vectors for the rest of the population, and relative death rates aren't relevant in that reguard. That’s why I suggest independent review of the relevant studies on children as vectors of spread. Hence, my first paragraph. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On August 19 2020 03:32 JimmiC wrote: Would you make the same argument to religious people who choose home schooling because of the lack of church in schools? This thread doesn’t need more digressions, particularly questioning religion and homeschooling. You must be insane. | ||
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