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So it is now ”on” in Sweden so to speak. In a week or so we will start to know if our different take on this was a bad idea or not.
From a personal perspective I called out my boss on our work guidelines today. We are a goverment workplace so we have stuck to their guidelines so far.
Yesterday they changed and today we got a briefing with all new things to consider. Except that the part about working from home if at all possible was omitted. My team could easily reorganise and keep most of us at home with one person avalible at work to manage essential things (which would also mean that there is only one person in the room). We have asked to work at home a couple of times but been denied because of guidelines.
Still no today but they would consider the issues. I know why they don’t want us to work from home but it has nothing to do with the virus and there are few or no logical reasons left.
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Why would it be a good idea? What Sweden is doing is extremely irresponsible, regardless of the outcome. Any decision that puts society at risk is never a good idea..
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Netherlands45349 Posts
There is a chance that the measures that are being taken are too extreme, the thing is: we dont know. So its best to play it on the safe side. It buys us crucial time to gather data, maybe in a year or so we will find out some measures were wildly ineffictive and unnecesary as we discover more about the virus.
But then we will know, now we dont know for sure, to gamble it on "its probably not that bad or not worth the economic cost" is a tough one which may cost a lot of lives.
Time and learnings is the most crucial thing that these measures buy us. Time for the health system to scale up and have it be more managable, time for us to learn what measures work, time for us to look for medicine or treatments.
So yeah maybe some people are right and some measures are ineffective and are too much, but fuck me there is no way in hell im taking that gamble.
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Most experts say that a vaccine is at least a year away.
Most experts also say that 60-70 % of the population will get corona eventually.
The real kicker is if you overload healthcare or not. We still have more than one third of ICU capacity left. If that, plus the reserve capacity, never goes critical then we should eventually get about the same result as everyone else. But without the full lockdown.
If it overloads. Well we know how that works out already.
Basically you can not hide forever so as long as you can flatten the peak below critical care it is fine.
I trust the goverment in that they do what they feel is best and that they do not think a full lockdown will have a significant impact in the end. But no one can know if they are right or wrong yet.
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One example of drastic measures not working is closed borders. Just read an article that Swedish company can not sell their safety equipment to Italy and Spain because France have forbidden exports out of the country. Even though the supplies are ordered and paid for and extremly needed. At the same time they have problems with their Chzech factory because half of the factory staff is polish and they can not cross the border.
That is just fucked up. If things really collapse it will be because of closed borders and fear keeping essential supplies from getting to the right places.
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The numbers France is putting out are complicated to read...
Today, an additional number of deaths from the previous weeks in retirement homes was added. 588 deaths in hospital today, and total 1416 deaths in retirement homes (partial numbers from yesterday plus additional reported today).
Then you have the "healed" number. This one only includes people leaving the hospital. It doesn't include mild cases that were diagnosed, who stayed home, and who healed. That's probably the same for other countries.
We currently have 27k+ people hospitalised for Covid, including 6660 in ICU. 14k have already left hospitals, cured, but the amount of people in ICU, the most interesting metric, is not diminishing. There were 260 more total ICU patients today than yesterday. Again, it does not say what the turnover is, how many left ICU and how many needed ICU...
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Zurich15366 Posts
On April 04 2020 03:16 Nouar wrote:
The numbers France is putting out are complicated to read...
Then you have the "healed" number. This one only includes people leaving the hospital. It doesn't include mild cases that were diagnosed, who stayed home, and who healed. That's probably the same for other countries.
Over here people tested positive who have been quarantined for 2 weeks are counted as healed.
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On April 04 2020 03:16 Nouar wrote:
The numbers France is putting out are complicated to read...
Today, an additional number of deaths from the previous weeks in retirement homes was added. 588 deaths in hospital today, and total 1416 deaths in retirement homes (partial numbers from yesterday plus additional reported today).
Then you have the "healed" number. This one only includes people leaving the hospital. It doesn't include mild cases that were diagnosed, who stayed home, and who healed. That's probably the same for other countries.
We currently have 27k+ people hospitalised for Covid, including 6660 in ICU. 14k have already left hospitals, cured, but the amount of people in ICU, the most interesting metric, is not diminishing. There were 260 more total ICU patients today than yesterday. Again, it does not say what the turnover is, how many left ICU and how many needed ICU... I read somewhere, sadly can't remember when or where so no source, that ICU stays for Covid can take up to 3 weeks. Which is why your likely not seeing turnover numbers, because they are rather low at this point. And also why ICU's are under so much stress, because people are entering but not leaving for an extended period.
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On April 04 2020 02:03 TT1 wrote:
Why would it be a good idea? What Sweden is doing is extremely irresponsible, regardless of the outcome. Any decision that puts society at risk is never a good idea..
It is hard to draw a line like that. There really is no "right thing to do" as no one knows what it is. It is also extrtemely irresponsible to destroy the economy just for short timespan gains. Economy taking big hits will always have a long term outcome. It will destroy lives as well and also lead to second hand casualities and depression.
edit: and as stated, no one is trying to stop the spread, just slow it down enough so that healthcare can deal with the patients.
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On April 04 2020 03:16 Nouar wrote:
The numbers France is putting out are complicated to read...
Today, an additional number of deaths from the previous weeks in retirement homes was added. 588 deaths in hospital today, and total 1416 deaths in retirement homes (partial numbers from yesterday plus additional reported today).
Then you have the "healed" number. This one only includes people leaving the hospital. It doesn't include mild cases that were diagnosed, who stayed home, and who healed. That's probably the same for other countries.
We currently have 27k+ people hospitalised for Covid, including 6660 in ICU. 14k have already left hospitals, cured, but the amount of people in ICU, the most interesting metric, is not diminishing. There were 260 more total ICU patients today than yesterday. Again, it does not say what the turnover is, how many left ICU and how many needed ICU...
Was there a reason the French responsible department was sequestering retirement home covid deaths from the national mortality count?
I can somewhat understand the healed number.
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On April 04 2020 02:03 TT1 wrote:
Why would it be a good idea? What Sweden is doing is extremely irresponsible, regardless of the outcome. Any decision that puts society at risk is never a good idea..
I am not sure about that. You can always argue something is "irresponsible when lives are at stake" but in the end the hit the economy might take might be a bigger hit, people's overall well being and in worst case even people's lives considered.
E: well Piste beat me to it 
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On April 04 2020 02:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
One example of drastic measures not working is closed borders. Just read an article that Swedish company can not sell their safety equipment to Italy and Spain because France have forbidden exports out of the country. Even though the supplies are ordered and paid for and extremly needed. At the same time they have problems with their Chzech factory because half of the factory staff is polish and they can not cross the border.
That is just fucked up. If things really collapse it will be because of closed borders and fear keeping essential supplies from getting to the right places.
There's plenty of unemployed people in here. Everything else I would love to write would have to go into some political thread, so I rather stay 'silent'.
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“Shutting down the economy,” for all its hyperbolic overemphasis, says very, very little about what follows, certainly not enough to attach any specific estimates of relative misery or negative consequence. That’s in part because there is a gigantic universe of possibilities that ebbs and flows in line with how governments and societies react.
The same cannot be said about failing to take steps to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Sure, there’s plenty of attendant uncertainty, but the ties between deaths and acts taken are much, much clearer than they are with respect to “shutting down the economy.”
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On April 04 2020 04:06 Danglars wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2020 03:16 Nouar wrote:
The numbers France is putting out are complicated to read...
Today, an additional number of deaths from the previous weeks in retirement homes was added. 588 deaths in hospital today, and total 1416 deaths in retirement homes (partial numbers from yesterday plus additional reported today).
Then you have the "healed" number. This one only includes people leaving the hospital. It doesn't include mild cases that were diagnosed, who stayed home, and who healed. That's probably the same for other countries.
We currently have 27k+ people hospitalised for Covid, including 6660 in ICU. 14k have already left hospitals, cured, but the amount of people in ICU, the most interesting metric, is not diminishing. There were 260 more total ICU patients today than yesterday. Again, it does not say what the turnover is, how many left ICU and how many needed ICU... Was there a reason the French responsible department was sequestering retirement home covid deaths from the national mortality count? I can somewhat understand the healed number.
Yes, these are private sector retirement homes, from hundreds of providers. The number published by the government were for the public hospitals. They can probably manage to get the numbers for private hospitals and clinics more easily (they are still a bit underused), but it took a lot of time for all these providers to put out the numbers and for the government to aggregate them.
There are around 18k suspected or proven cases in these homes... (out of 700k total) It's going to be ugly.
There is another scandal maybe brewing : labs.
We have large-scales labs at the province level, used for water, animal, food hygiene testing etc... These are able to test, without the reagent limitation of small bio-labs as they have machines tuned with a variety of reagents. They just need their methodology validated to ensure their tests can detect Covid-19 (as they can run it on other coronaviruses) and could run dozens of thousands of tests per day with a 1-week advance notice.
Issue ? There is a law from a while ago that forbids them to run tests on humans (when they can test virus in other mammals...), and the government is basically ignoring them for now, has done so for nearly 3 weeks...
https://www.lepoint.fr/sante/exclusif-comment-la-france-se-prive-de-150-000-a-300-000-tests-par-semaine-03-04-2020-2369955_40.php
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On April 04 2020 03:30 Piste wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2020 02:03 TT1 wrote:
Why would it be a good idea? What Sweden is doing is extremely irresponsible, regardless of the outcome. Any decision that puts society at risk is never a good idea.. It is hard to draw a line like that. There really is no "right thing to do" as no one knows what it is. It is also extrtemely irresponsible to destroy the economy just for short timespan gains. Economy taking big hits will always have a long term outcome. It will destroy lives as well and also lead to second hand casualities and depression. edit: and as stated, no one is trying to stop the spread, just slow it down enough so that healthcare can deal with the patients.
Is it though?
I guess it is but in the case of sweden it seems so obviously wrong.
Its clear that they are undertesting and it looks like a disaster in the making.
I hope I'm wrong.
The swedes do have a rather good site: https://platz.se/coronavirus/
With age groups many others sites dont have.
There you can see that about 28% of the people in intesive care are under 60. So still working.
They don't die as often by a large margin so you better protect those ICU beds or it will effect the economy anyway.
Anyway, I don't know if more people feel like this but the hole situation seems to consume me.
I feel like all the free time from not going out is spent 'obsesing' about the virus and everything around it.
I will try to gain some distance.
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On April 04 2020 04:13 farvacola wrote:
“Shutting down the economy,” for all its hyperbolic overemphasis, says very, very little about what follows, certainly not enough to attach any specific estimates of relative misery or negative consequence. That’s in part because there is a gigantic universe of possibilities that ebbs and flows in line with how governments and societies react.
The same cannot be said about failing to take steps to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Sure, there’s plenty of attendant uncertainty, but the ties between deaths and acts taken are much, much clearer than they are with respect to “shutting down the economy.”
At least my point was that people can use their own judgement if to go to a bar, restaurant, gather around in large groups for any reason etc etc... Yes i know human race is stupid in that sense because people tend to think "well it's not gonna happen to ME" or something like that but still, if i was a small business owner i think i would be pissed off if let's say my line of business was cut off for any reason.
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Czech Republic12133 Posts
On April 04 2020 04:07 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2020 02:03 TT1 wrote:
Why would it be a good idea? What Sweden is doing is extremely irresponsible, regardless of the outcome. Any decision that puts society at risk is never a good idea.. I am not sure about that. You can always argue something is "irresponsible when lives are at stake" but in the end the hit the economy might take might be a bigger hit, people's overall well being and in worst case even people's lives considered. E: well Piste beat me to it
I was going to agree but then I read this
On April 04 2020 02:20 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Most experts say that a vaccine is at least a year away.
Most experts also say that 60-70 % of the population will get corona eventually.
The real kicker is if you overload healthcare or not. We still have more than one third of ICU capacity left. If that, plus the reserve capacity, never goes critical then we should eventually get about the same result as everyone else. But without the full lockdown. If it overloads. Well we know how that works out already. + Show Spoiler +Basically you can not hide forever so as long as you can flatten the peak below critical care it is fine.
I trust the goverment in that they do what they feel is best and that they do not think a full lockdown will have a significant impact in the end. But no one can know if they are right or wrong yet.
Like that's high level of cynisism(you do realize that if the healthcare overloads it means letting die the old, right?). NOBODY in the Europe can hide from the virus. We cannot stop it, we are trying to slow the spreading. Sweden has similar population as Cze:
You have 6,5k detected/358dead
We have 4,1k detected/51 dead. And if the person with corona is hit by a truck it is reported as death by corona as it is the #1 in the death priority in here. But maybe it will hit in the retirement homes, who knows, maybe we gonna get to your levels eventually.
The question is if 200 dead people is worth it. I say it is.
Edit: mind you we miss protective gear, testing capabilities and probably even more, I like to not follow news much, it's depressing. Yes, if we had the testing capabilities of Germany, we wouldn't have to be so strict. But we don't.
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Well let me ask this deacon.frost;
Why in you opinion the fatality rate of the virus is so much higher in France than let's say Germany atm?
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On April 04 2020 04:13 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On April 04 2020 02:30 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
One example of drastic measures not working is closed borders. Just read an article that Swedish company can not sell their safety equipment to Italy and Spain because France have forbidden exports out of the country. Even though the supplies are ordered and paid for and extremly needed. At the same time they have problems with their Chzech factory because half of the factory staff is polish and they can not cross the border.
That is just fucked up. If things really collapse it will be because of closed borders and fear keeping essential supplies from getting to the right places. There's plenty of unemployed people in here. Everything else I would love to write would have to go into some political thread, so I rather stay 'silent'.
This isn't political at all. Borders weren't shut down right because polish people are working in another country. And the issue isn't if there are unemployed people inside any country (there is a ton of available labor).
The problem is that a company in europe producing masks and other protective gear for healthcare workers just lost half their workforce in one of their factories. Can they rehire chzech workers and train them? Sure. But it takes weeks to get people up to speed. And right now we are in a pandemic.
So my point isn't about what should have been done in the first place and if it's right or wrong to import labour.
It's that in an integrated economy like Europe has just closing borders and cutting cooperation is a really stupid move.
It will make it more difficult for many things that are normally cross border and that are in dire need right now. Every country has the virus anyway so the extra spread from a few essential workers in key industries crossing a border is mainly irrelevant. The disruptions they cause are not.
Similarly countries should be helping each other, not hogging supply. If your healthcare capacity is not overwhelmed send supplies to countries that need them. They will peak earlier than you anyway. And when they are over their peak they can help you in turn.
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On April 04 2020 04:29 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Well let me ask this deacon.frost;
Why in you opinion the fatality rate of the virus is so much higher in France than let's say Germany atm?
A part of the answer is that Germany is testing, A LOT. So the real number of cases in Germany is probably much lower than ours.
Now, that is only a partial answer, and I don't know why they have less cases, though this amount of testing allowed them to isolate more easily patients with milder symptoms (and all the people that had contact with them) that might have propagated the virus more.
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EPT
