EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 83
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
Esp because the risk/reward ratios are astronomically better in crypto than tradfi for obvious reasons | ||
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pebble444
Italy2503 Posts
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BrTarolg
United Kingdom3574 Posts
Obv anywhere that has heavy lightning network usage you basically just use it as a base form of money - like you can just walk into mcdonalds and buy your burger with crypto and pay through your phone 0 fees Otherwise, in terms of on chain natives, NFT's tend to trade in their base currency (so ETH or SOL usually), as do most of the tokens on that chain (though often people price them vs stablecoins too, there's a lot of argument to be had here) The other notable example would be axie infinity, where people pay their rent in smooth love potions in SEA (lol) | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17843 Posts
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Uldridge
Belgium5217 Posts
Not gonna lie, I'm starting to worry a little bit... | ||
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GoTuNk!
Chile4591 Posts
On October 08 2021 04:34 Uldridge wrote: I just don't really understand where the supply chain issues are coming from? What's changed? Was it a compounding effect up until now? Not gonna lie, I'm starting to worry a little bit... This is totally anecdotal, but I've been waiting for 2 months for something to come out of a port in China. Full permanent delay. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5217 Posts
What about the gas? I can't imagine gas prices spiked so hard just from the prediction of a harsh winter.. Europe just has a working pipe up with Russia what the fuck. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17843 Posts
On October 08 2021 04:34 Uldridge wrote: I just don't really understand where the supply chain issues are coming from? What's changed? Was it a compounding effect up until now? Not gonna lie, I'm starting to worry a little bit... It's compounding issue that also has multiple causes. The Wuhan virus, power shortages, lockdowns. I've read somewhere there are like 70 ships in the port of Los Angeles that haven't even been offloaded in 2 months time and it's creating a huge backlog as they can't handle any new shipments. Australia really screwed China over with tariffs on their coal when over 50% of China's coal demand was being supplied by Australia (supposedly a response to trying to hide the covid). There are like entire provinces with power outages in China and even in bigger cities there are blackouts on the highways etc. I think that the energy crisis might be more related to all the lockdowns as fuel consumption dropped during them so most likely production ramped down a bit and there was a backlog of resources stored. Now they'd probably like to move those resources but due to transportation chaos ports are being clogged up and delays are getting worse which exacerbates the situation. On October 08 2021 04:39 Uldridge wrote: So is it just China then that's in total disarray and trying to keep it hidden as long as possible? What about the gas? I can't imagine gas prices spiked so hard just from the prediction of a harsh winter.. Europe just has a working pipe up with Russia what the fuck. China has always kept stuff hidden. Part of their policy is to never show weakness or anything negative on the outside (like the fact that their local governments have a shadow debt that's equal to roughly half their GDP and those are optimistic estimates from what little info Goldman-Sachs was able to procure). | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
1. The big US oil majors got whacked last year with negative oil. They made it very clear they're not going to rush to increase production this year, instead focusing on getting better margins on what they're already producing. Source 2. Similar story with OPEC & Friends, it seems. Some questions as to whether or not they actually can increase production. Source 3. Equipment for drilling is subject to the negative effects of "transitory" inflation as well. Production becomes pricier. 4. Europe really dug themselves into a hole with overreliance on solar & wind and underinvestment in more reliable fuels, such that a single year (2020) with a harsh winter and minimal wind took a giant dent out of their gas reserves. It's been bad enough that they've resorted to trying to fill the gap with coal, the greenest of green fuels. 5. China decided they're willing to pay well above the odds to make sure they're getting the stuff they need, winning over a whole lot of LNG business that might have gone to Europe. Demand spike, supply shock, and poorly conceived "green" policy collide, from what I can tell. Rev up those coal fryers - pretty sure Europe is gonna need 'em at this rate. | ||
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arbiter_md
Moldova1219 Posts
 I too expect the stock market to have a massive fall soon-ish, as it always happens in times of crisis. The question is only who will the governments bail-out this time. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17843 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14208 Posts
The take that its green energy to blame is a really shitty take that was birthed out of Texas when they forgot to winterize their energy grid. China made a pledge to stop building a new coal plant every month and hasn't been able to get its nuclear plants online.China's issues with Australia have more to due with its Iron ore trade then its coal trade. Massive domestic steel issues earlier in the year threatened the world with a steel shock if Bidens infrastructure bill went through earlier. The previous crash had an issue with there not being enough liquidity in the market to cover people's liabilities. Right now Banks in America are handing the government 1.3+ trilly a day because they legitimately don't know what to do with it. Money has never been cheaper and more plentiful. Evergrande can just happen and no one cares because the money is just out there to swallow it up. People need to seriously relax and just let the global economy pick back up. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17843 Posts
I really do hope it doesn't come to another big crash though. Bad time for me to endure hyperinflation with all the liabilities I have on my plate at the moment (still got a nice cushion but I'd rather it not disappeared). | ||
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Sermokala
United States14208 Posts
The hits to a lot of chinas companies isn't material loses but the same gross speculation on the profitability of a company that doesn't exist in a free market. If people ever had confidence in a Chinese stock they shouldn't be listened to in the first place. | ||
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Belisarius
Australia6233 Posts
On October 08 2021 04:49 Manit0u wrote: Australia really screwed China over with tariffs on their coal when over 50% of China's coal demand was being supplied by Australia (supposedly a response to trying to hide the covid). There are like entire provinces with power outages in China and even in bigger cities there are blackouts on the highways etc. Look, it's a minor point, but Australia absolutely did not "screw China over". What actually happened was that we were one of the early voices calling for an investigation of the origin of the virus, and the CCP didn't like this. They retaliated by sanctioning nearly everything we sold them, including coal. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-12-17/australian-trade-tension-sanctions-china-growing-commodities/12984218 For months, dozens of bulk carriers carrying Australian coal were stranded off the coast of two major Chinese ports unable to unload their cargoes. It was estimated up to $700 million of coal had been caught out in the delays, which China attributed to "environmental" problems. Coal had also been identified in the list of commodities that Chinese importers had been warned to avoid from November 6. By early December, fourth quarter exports had fallen by 82 per cent and Australia's largest coal port, Newcastle, had completely stopped sending coal to China altogether. The knockout blow came when China's state media seemingly confirmed that Beijing has blocked Australian coal imports, jeopardising $14.5 billion of trade. They claimed the disruptions were due to sudden QC failures or non-compliant labelling or whatever nonsense, across about 10 different industries in the space of weeks. They have since admitted that this was spurious. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/australia-china-trade-tensions-official-economic-punishment/100273964 + Show Spoiler + Australian officials have long scoffed at these claims, saying Beijing has been laying a thin veneer of plausible deniability on its campaign of economic punishment. And on Tuesday evening Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian also seemed to drop the pretence. When he was asked about a drop in Australian agricultural exports to China, Mr Zhao made it clear Beijing had deliberately targeted Australian goods. "We will not allow any country to reap benefits from doing business with China while groundlessly accusing and smearing China and undermining China's core interests based on ideology." I know that europe doesn't particularly like us right now, but this was Xi's decision, not ours. It does appear to have backfired. We are economically bound to a superpower that is focused on hiding its failures at all costs. We criticised them, and they attempted to destroy our economy. That is not "Australia screwing china over". | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On October 08 2021 06:48 arbiter_md wrote: And at fault is green energy in Europe Damn straight it is. When your so-called "green" energy grid depends heavily on unreliable sources of power like wind, and the wind stops blowing, you had better have an alternative on hand. Needing more gas is understandable, but when it gets so bad that coal is on the table, someone clearly messed up their energy policy. It's not the most important factor to be sure; 4th or 5th of 5 in importance out of the list that I mentioned. But it definitely is significant, and it evidently is a much more bitter pill to swallow than "China bad" or "it was caused by corvids." Bad policy made enough of a dent to make the shortage quite desperate indeed, with few options but to ask the big O&G players to produce more. | ||
KwarK
United States44288 Posts
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