EPTIf it keeps doing that, we'll have roughly around nasdaq 18200 in 5 months. On something like 30% unemployment.
Seems legit.
Trading/Investing Thread - Page 32
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Vivax
22314 Posts
If it keeps doing that, we'll have roughly around nasdaq 18200 in 5 months. On something like 30% unemployment. Seems legit. | ||
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CorsairHero
Canada9491 Posts
Look at the bottom of the GFC and compare that to the economic data at the time as markets were moving up from the bottom. | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On May 01 2020 01:03 Vivax wrote: About 1 month and 6 says for nasdaq to rise about 2300 points. If it keeps doing that, we'll have roughly around nasdaq 18200 in 5 months. On something like 30% unemployment. Seems legit. Robots jack up the prices whenever meatbags are put out of commission. There was a point at which there was nonstop bad news about the 737 MAX, but $BA just kept ticking up. | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
On May 01 2020 05:25 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Ow AMZN Robots jack up the prices whenever meatbags are put out of commission. There was a point at which there was nonstop bad news about the 737 MAX, but $BA just kept ticking up. Yeah one of the reason I watch put/call ratios. These HFT-hedgefunds sure are efficient at causing maximum pain to a maximum number of participants. And they get cheap loans from the fed too, probably. But I think the big one is very close, the last drop was just a foretaste. Took losses from a 9.5k KO put and moved into a NDX put with KO at around 10k yesterday so I can sit it through if there are funny spikes again, hopefully. | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On May 01 2020 08:26 Vivax wrote: Yeah one of the reason I watch put/call ratios. These HFT-hedgefunds sure are efficient at causing maximum pain to a maximum number of participants. And they get cheap loans from the fed too, probably. But I think the big one is very close, the last drop was just a foretaste. Took losses from a 9.5k KO put and moved into a NDX put with KO at around 10k yesterday so I can sit it through if there are funny spikes again, hopefully. Out of curiosity, where are you trading knockout options? Unless I'm misunderstanding you and you made the wrong move on Coca-Cola | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
On May 01 2020 09:12 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Out of curiosity, where are you trading knockout options? Unless I'm misunderstanding you and you made the wrong move on Coca-Cola There's this chart kinda showing what's happening. ![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EW4ShfwWABQMTgM?format=png&name=900x900) | ||
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Disrop
1 Post
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On May 09 2020 04:21 Disrop wrote: --Nuked-- I heard it becomes more profitable for the brokers. Why would it become more profitable for traders over time? | ||
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winlessplayer
43 Posts
On May 09 2020 05:38 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I heard it becomes more profitable for the brokers. Why would it become more profitable for traders over time? Joined 09/05/20, no posts. Maybe it's an advettisement. | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On May 10 2020 15:23 winlessplayer wrote: Joined 09/05/20, no posts. Maybe it's an advettisement. Nice. The shills are better than I thought; usually they get nuked before I see them | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
Didn't bode well for the overall market last time. Too much speculation on this magical halving prolly. | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
Stock market is closed on the weekends so instead I trade Trump tweets: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6689. People lost a LOT of money thinking the big man wouldn't eventually get bored and retweet all his friends this week | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On May 11 2020 00:22 Vivax wrote: Bitcoin kinda crashing. Didn't bode well for the overall market last time. Too much speculation on this magical halving prolly. Didn't it crash a good 34% a few weeks back? Bitcoin is pretty much a perfect example of a bubble stock, so watching it is more amusing than meaningful really. It's not clear why it does or doesn't do anything beyond a fun game of speculation. | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
On May 11 2020 00:37 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I don't get the significance of the halving as an outsider. Mining will happen at half the current rate, right? So the coin will inflate half as fast. But the amount of coins in circulation is already a large fraction of the theoretical maximum, so does that really affect much? Stock market is closed on the weekends so instead I trade Trump tweets: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6689. People lost a LOT of money thinking the big man wouldn't eventually get bored and retweet all his friends this week Apparently you had 700% returns if you bought before the close and sold at the open during this recovery rally. Meanwhile if you bought at the open and sold before close you had like -13 or -35%, can't remember the number. The overnight futures market makes this a total casino. Btw, talking about S&P 500. Curious if the bitcoin correlation is going to hold here tomorrow. I'm also pretty sure the Chinese mined the most bitcoin, and while the concept is nice you're essentially just giving money to whoever was first and betting against the dollar. It's almost like a buffer against dollar shortages, so in theory halving should speed up the dollar strengthening. Halving afaik means you get half the bitcoin you got before with the same computing power. One thing that makes me think bitcoin has some hidden relation to the dollar is its crash from the heights when the Fed hiked rates in 2018. | ||
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pmh
1416 Posts
Interesting site,i like it but those spreads are insane. How can you trade those and be profitable even if you get it right, Or do the spreads narrow now and then? Edit: Hmm maybe i am reading it wrong,if you take no for 169 or less then everything above 169 is good. Still i can only see one side of the bid/ask. Is it impossible to sell back once you bought or do you only see those quotes once you have a position? @below:aha i see ty! | ||
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[UoN]Sentinel
United States11320 Posts
On May 11 2020 02:10 pmh wrote: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6689. Interesting site,i like it but those spreads are insane. How can you trade those and be profitable even if you get it right, Or do the spreads narrow now and then? Edit: Hmm maybe i am reading it wrong,if you take no for 169 or less then everything above 169 is good. Still i can only see one side of the bid/ask. Is it impossible to sell back once you bought or do you only see those quotes once you have a position? The spreads aren't more than 1-2 cents usually, unless it's close to deadline or Trump just posted multiple times. The basic rules (of the whole site) are: you have yes/no questions related to various political outcomes. Like will Trump win the popular vote in 2020. If you have Yes shares and the question comes true - in this case Trump wins the popular vote in the 2020 election - then all of your Yes shares turn into $1 each. If you had no shares, they disappear. Vice versa, if he doesn't win the popular vote, your No shares all turn into $1 and your Yes shares all disappear. For a multiple-contract market like this, it's a set of connected yes/no questions. So, will Trump tweet 169 times or less this week? Yes/No. Will he tweet 170-179 times this week? Yes/No. Etc. A No share is essentially a negative Yes share, so selling Yes is the same thing as buying No. If you put in an order for 25 Yes shares in some bracket at 15 cents, for example, someone will have to buy 25 No's at 85 cents in order for both of you to get your shares. If you have a position in yes/no you'll only see the bid ask for your kind of shares - since Yes and No are negatives of one another, you can't buy both Yes and No shares at the same time. Example since I'm holding No's in the lowest two brackets: https://i.imgur.com/rhCVu8J.png Finally two restrictions: There's a 10% rake for your profits - if you buy a share at 70 cents and it turns into a dollar, you made a profit of 30 cents so the site takes 3 and you get 27. So it's a negative sum game. Finally you can't own more than $850 in any one yes/no question due to a government restriction. This is actually a good thing for smaller traders because it means big players can't price out market inefficiencies by themselves. So in some sense it's more forgiving. But it also means you can't scale your bets past a certain point. | ||
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Vivax
22314 Posts
Haven't heard of Brexit in a while. + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/mobile/000/005/673/sooon.jpg){kind=icon} Not what I'm trading atm but I like the pattern. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18290 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On May 13 2020 05:30 Acrofales wrote: I dunno. All my stuff is just going sideways. Don't trust it to actually go up either. Slowly selling off stuff so we can put the savings toward buying a house now that we're allowed to go and look at them again. I'd definitely like to buy a house around now. The prices I saw a few months ago just didn't seem worth it at all; waiting for a bit of a cooldown in the market. Later this year seems at least moderately promising, if finances look good by then. Right now, seems more a bunch of sellers are looking to pawn off their properties at top dollar before an inevitable pullback in the market, so I'm not yet interested in buying. Airlines have had another exciting couple of zig-zag weeks. Buffett announcing he sold off his hefty shares in the airlines was a fun bit of news, to be sure. | ||
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farvacola
United States18857 Posts
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