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On April 22 2020 07:00 micronesia wrote:
My friend bought 500 barrels for 0.50 per, thinking the most he could lose was his $250 position... but with negative prices he lost almost 20 grand I think. I'm staying the heck away from futures.
Don't think I've ever heard of a better example of "unlimited losses" before.
Things like this are why leveraged trading doesn't sit well with me. Frankly until just yesterday I didn't even know that something like -$40 oil was even a possibility, and yet here we are. It's a dangerous lottery, not a meaningful wealth-builder.
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On April 22 2020 12:36 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 07:00 micronesia wrote:
My friend bought 500 barrels for 0.50 per, thinking the most he could lose was his $250 position... but with negative prices he lost almost 20 grand I think. I'm staying the heck away from futures. Don't think I've ever heard of a better example of "unlimited losses" before. Things like this are why leveraged trading doesn't sit well with me. Frankly until just yesterday I didn't even know that something like -$40 oil was even a possibility, and yet here we are. It's a dangerous lottery, not a meaningful wealth-builder.
It's only a lottery if you don't know what youre doing.
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Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long.
A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago.
https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx
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On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx
I just sold Netflix yesterday as it went well over my target and I am dubious about it continuing its rise. Not sure I'd go so far as to short it tho. In general it seems like the kind of stock that could really go any way right now.
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On April 22 2020 22:13 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx I just sold Netflix yesterday as it went well over my target and I am dubious about it continuing its rise. Not sure I'd go so far as to short it tho. In general it seems like the kind of stock that could really go any way right now.
Following insiders before earnings is a good strat. Feb 4 Bezos sold 1.8 billions worth of his stock, the drop began two weeks later. Either way, I don't think you'll regret selling.
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United States44429 Posts
On April 22 2020 22:22 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 22:13 Acrofales wrote:On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx I just sold Netflix yesterday as it went well over my target and I am dubious about it continuing its rise. Not sure I'd go so far as to short it tho. In general it seems like the kind of stock that could really go any way right now. Following insiders before earnings is a good strat. Feb 4 Bezos sold 1.8 billions worth of his stock, the drop began two weeks later. Either way, I don't think you'll regret selling.
Amazon is higher than it was then.
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On April 22 2020 22:23 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 22:22 Vivax wrote:On April 22 2020 22:13 Acrofales wrote:On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx I just sold Netflix yesterday as it went well over my target and I am dubious about it continuing its rise. Not sure I'd go so far as to short it tho. In general it seems like the kind of stock that could really go any way right now. Following insiders before earnings is a good strat. Feb 4 Bezos sold 1.8 billions worth of his stock, the drop began two weeks later. Either way, I don't think you'll regret selling. Amazon is higher than it was then.
We'll see for how long 
If you took 1.8 billions worth of shares from Bezos, would you resell them at a lower price? I'd pump the price up first.
That aside, the best crisis indicator right now are high-yield bonds. That's why I like to watch the Greek 10Y. Though the HY-ETF is also on a downtrend.
https://etfdb.com/etf/HYG/#charts
https://tradingeconomics.com/greece/government-bond-yield
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On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx
Playing earnings by buying options right now seems like insanity right now.
Hope you make bank but always remember how bad IV crush can be during times like this.
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On April 22 2020 22:53 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx Playing earnings by buying options right now seems like insanity right now. Hope you make bank but always remember how bad IV crush can be during times like this.
I'm not too familiar with it. But I can imagine.
Is it something like this for a put?
Price goes up post earnings: Bid rises proportionately higher than the ask.
Price goes down, ask rises proportionately higher than the bid?
Actually more like this:
+ price: Bid sinks less than the ask.
- price: Bid rises more than the ask.
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IV is expected move of underlying into the future. Right before earnings, IV is high because expected move of underlying is large. Post earnings, IV drops fast because expected move of underlying is small. IV is one of the parts of the Black-Scholes pricing model, and when it drops your option loses value as well. Even though you might guess direction correctly, without a big movement in underlying, you could lose on your option position on e/r. Don't forget the greeks when dealing with options.
Have to give it up to marketers of ETFs. Done a really good job in the past few years popularizing the product. Unfortunately ETF/ETN != buying the basket of underlying. Retail investors could be on losing end. Unlikely with stock ETF. Need caution with bonds, futures, reits, etc. Illiquid underlying packaged together to be made liquid has risk many are not accounting for.
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On April 22 2020 08:54 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 08:51 Acrofales wrote:
What I want in oil right now is a fund that invests in stashing crude in a tank somewhere that allows me to buy in, pay for storage and sell in X months (depending on the management). Worst case in this situation is the oil is still worthless in X months and you lose the money for the storage. But I can't find a reputable fund that does this. Just some people I know who are planning to pool money and set it up themselves. I'm not quite crazy enough to send my money to a gaming buddy in Texas so they can rent 11 tankers and fill them with crude. Apparently oil is prohibitively expensive to store. It was judged to be more efficient to achieve the same with rolling futures until everything went wrong. A rolling futures fund has effectively a tanker one month out holding the oil for future use. As the tanker approaches the refinery you sell the contents of that tanker and buy the contents of one further out. Under normal conditions you always have effective ownership of one tanker worth of oil and can cash out whenever it arrives. What went wrong this time is that the oil in a tanker 2 months out became way more valuable than the oil in a tanker 1 month out because the 1 month out one had no market.
I'm curious now how much the oil market is distorted by future funds like this versus the US and Russia being unable to shut off the taps when it isn't profitable. How cheap or how long does oil have to be in the dumpster for the US or Russia to shut down? It seems like it is in their strategic interests to maintain domestic supply line, but at what cost?
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On April 22 2020 22:22 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 22:13 Acrofales wrote:On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx I just sold Netflix yesterday as it went well over my target and I am dubious about it continuing its rise. Not sure I'd go so far as to short it tho. In general it seems like the kind of stock that could really go any way right now. Following insiders before earnings is a good strat. Feb 4 Bezos sold 1.8 billions worth of his stock, the drop began two weeks later. Either way, I don't think you'll regret selling.
You do realize insiders are generally only allowed to make dispositions under a 10b5-1 blind sale right? These sales are effectively meaningless as a signal.
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On April 25 2020 03:28 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 22:22 Vivax wrote:On April 22 2020 22:13 Acrofales wrote:On April 22 2020 21:15 Vivax wrote:Bought 9/18 1700 amazon puts. Tomorrow is earnings date, so I expect sell the news stuff, fair value around 2k, current P/E is over 100. If market tanks 1700 is about the pre-bubble average. Not advice to short, majority of PF is still long. A safer play would be Netflix I think, the CEO sold about 24 Million worth of shares two days ago. https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx I just sold Netflix yesterday as it went well over my target and I am dubious about it continuing its rise. Not sure I'd go so far as to short it tho. In general it seems like the kind of stock that could really go any way right now. Following insiders before earnings is a good strat. Feb 4 Bezos sold 1.8 billions worth of his stock, the drop began two weeks later. Either way, I don't think you'll regret selling. You do realize insiders are generally only allowed to make dispositions under a 10b5-1 blind sale right? These sales are effectively meaningless as a signal.
I don't take a single thing into consideration when making my decisions, but it's worth noting imo how far ahead of the drop he was.
After dwelling a bit on charts, I'm starting to get friendly to the idea that gamma exposure spikes are a good indicator of drops ahead of time.
Also this:
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EWtMsb6UwAEvNwM?format=jpg&name=4096x4096)
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I went to school to learn how to price options but I've made more money just following the unusual options tracker than actually trying to apply my knowledge
On April 23 2020 07:57 Blitzkrieg0 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2020 08:54 KwarK wrote:On April 22 2020 08:51 Acrofales wrote:
What I want in oil right now is a fund that invests in stashing crude in a tank somewhere that allows me to buy in, pay for storage and sell in X months (depending on the management). Worst case in this situation is the oil is still worthless in X months and you lose the money for the storage. But I can't find a reputable fund that does this. Just some people I know who are planning to pool money and set it up themselves. I'm not quite crazy enough to send my money to a gaming buddy in Texas so they can rent 11 tankers and fill them with crude. Apparently oil is prohibitively expensive to store. It was judged to be more efficient to achieve the same with rolling futures until everything went wrong. A rolling futures fund has effectively a tanker one month out holding the oil for future use. As the tanker approaches the refinery you sell the contents of that tanker and buy the contents of one further out. Under normal conditions you always have effective ownership of one tanker worth of oil and can cash out whenever it arrives. What went wrong this time is that the oil in a tanker 2 months out became way more valuable than the oil in a tanker 1 month out because the 1 month out one had no market. I'm curious now how much the oil market is distorted by future funds like this versus the US and Russia being unable to shut off the taps when it isn't profitable. How cheap or how long does oil have to be in the dumpster for the US or Russia to shut down? It seems like it is in their strategic interests to maintain domestic supply line, but at what cost?
Russia has a seasonal effect where land-based drilling has to take place in the winter (while the ground is solid) while offshore drilling has to stop during the winter. So they'd keep the wells running for longer just because the cost of re-drilling has the potential to be higher than it is elsewhere in the world.
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Nice week for the markets, hope some nice money for everyone  Up 7%~ since buying in 2 months ago after the first dip.
Wondering if you guys have any opinions on investing in oil? Particularly looking at the Canada based companies (for dividend tax benefit purposes, and I like to know what I own). Upstream is probably more exciting with the high uncertainty.
Suncor, Imperial, Cenovus, CNRL, Husky (lol)
Market indices are running out of room to go up, trying to enter some industry where there is some fear but careful optimism from some. (Of course I was thinking about this yesterday, and all the O&G managed to go up 10% today already)
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On April 30 2020 03:10 FiWiFaKi wrote:Nice week for the markets, hope some nice money for everyone Up 7%~ since buying in 2 months ago after the first dip. Wondering if you guys have any opinions on investing in oil? Particularly looking at the Canada based companies (for dividend tax benefit purposes, and I like to know what I own). Upstream is probably more exciting with the high uncertainty. Suncor, Imperial, Cenovus, CNRL, Husky (lol) Market indices are running out of room to go up, trying to enter some industry where there is some fear but careful optimism from some. (Of course I was thinking about this yesterday, and all the O&G managed to go up 10% today already)
rosneft and msft did well. J&J is not really buying the recovery. Sold miners because they are vulnerable to etf outflows when there's another plunge.
Reading a short squeeze on airlines into today's moves. Still think we're not done going further down. Shorts obviously looking bloody in the meantime, and the index put/call ratio makes me kinda uncomfortable, but I'll stick to my guns. There's record money market inflows atm.
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USO got a really solid 700% jump today, pretty good even by oil standards.
+ Show Spoiler +But it was because they did an 8-to-1 reverse split, so it's not as impressive as it sounds.
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I'm glad I'm invested in real money, namely bitcoin, instead of the fiat USD or worthless commodities like oil.
Bitcoin's halving is in 2 weeks, hoping for a big rally upwards.
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On April 30 2020 03:10 FiWiFaKi wrote:Nice week for the markets, hope some nice money for everyone Up 7%~ since buying in 2 months ago after the first dip. Wondering if you guys have any opinions on investing in oil? Particularly looking at the Canada based companies (for dividend tax benefit purposes, and I like to know what I own). Upstream is probably more exciting with the high uncertainty. Suncor, Imperial, Cenovus, CNRL, Husky (lol) Market indices are running out of room to go up, trying to enter some industry where there is some fear but careful optimism from some. (Of course I was thinking about this yesterday, and all the O&G managed to go up 10% today already)
Do you think it could dip again? It feels unreal the economy is imploding while the stock market goes up.
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On April 30 2020 06:16 GoTuNk! wrote:
I'm glad I'm invested in real money, namely bitcoin, instead of the fiat USD or worthless commodities like oil.
Bitcoin's halving is in 2 weeks, hoping for a big rally upwards.
I'm not into crypto. I mean, I got myself a card wallet but didn't buy any coins yet and am not sure of the mechanisms behind it.
But seeing how it got dragged down with the rest made me uneasy to use it as hedge and this halving hype smells a bit too optimistic to me.
What also makes me uneasy is that governments are oddly tolerant towards it, which makes me think they got their fingers in it somewhere. Maybe they dump their credit default swaps in it or something.
I've looked a bit into insider sales again and financials see lots of buying while consumer goods, biotech, electronics, internet services mostly selling. P&G dumped an especially big position.
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EPT
