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On May 18 2020 22:08 LegalLord wrote:Judging by this morning's futures, it looks like the market is up a decent bit. It's not hard to trace that to the fact that Powell made the news cycles yesterday, and made some remarks that sound exactly like him saying, "don't worry about how bad the numbers are, because the Fed will bail out everyone everywhere forever!" It's a whole lot of bluster, but it makes for a good stock pump for the day. 
Always wary of quick increases. The wall of worry is more sustainable than the green rocket.
When someone has to sell a shitton of stock, he has to go through the dealers first. So first they try to frontrun each other finding the lowest possible price, then they frontrun each other in dumping it to the exchanges at the highest possible ask.
Could be wrong but from what I'm learning every market maker has a short position and needs to find the stock to sell first.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting.
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On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting.
They'll probably be nationalized. I got my eye on oil now, after a bunch of bankruptcy filings and production cuts there seems to be a buying frenzy now. That could backfire quickly into toxic prices by end of year.
There's no inflation like energy inflation. Don't see how that would help equities though.
That said, gamma exposure predicted another selloff last Friday if I read it correctly. No advice, but I think today is not indicative of the next two weeks.
Also, my bet would be on this being the fakout. Gonna short if I see a reversal, if I get the chance.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
On May 18 2020 23:01 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting. They'll probably be nationalized. I got my eye on oil now, after a bunch of bankruptcy filings and production cuts there seems to be a buying frenzy now. That could backfire quickly into toxic prices by end of year. There's no inflation like energy inflation. Don't see how that would help equities though.
Not really too sure what the bargains are in O&G really. Shale is doom and gloom with the stock price not yet reflecting it, and the majors around the world aren't selling at an awfully massive discount yet.
I'm sure some are selling at a good discount, but I don't really know what those discounts are. Most of the talk I've seen seems to be centered around trying to play on obviously losing propositions like trying to profit off Whiting Petroleum before its bankruptcy proceeding leads to a -100% return on investment.
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On May 18 2020 23:15 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2020 23:01 Vivax wrote:On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting. They'll probably be nationalized. I got my eye on oil now, after a bunch of bankruptcy filings and production cuts there seems to be a buying frenzy now. That could backfire quickly into toxic prices by end of year. There's no inflation like energy inflation. Don't see how that would help equities though. Not really too sure what the bargains are in O&G really. Shale is doom and gloom with the stock price not yet reflecting it, and the majors around the world aren't selling at an awfully massive discount yet. I'm sure some are selling at a good discount, but I don't really know what those discounts are. Most of the talk I've seen seems to be centered around trying to play on obviously losing propositions like trying to profit off Whiting Petroleum before its bankruptcy proceeding leads to a -100% return on investment.
When it comes to oil companies my winning horse would probably be rosneft. Don't think much comes close to Russia in commodity terms. But there's geopolitical risk and you can only buy their 'fake stock' GDRs afaik. Aramco maybe, also geopolitically risky.
If you could find an ETF that focuses on oil companies stocks (not futures) that's probably not a bad pick, but I'm not familiar with them.
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The green line go up thesis (assume market will go up and find big call volumes on the unusual options page) making me richer yet again
On May 18 2020 23:42 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2020 23:15 LegalLord wrote:On May 18 2020 23:01 Vivax wrote:On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting. They'll probably be nationalized. I got my eye on oil now, after a bunch of bankruptcy filings and production cuts there seems to be a buying frenzy now. That could backfire quickly into toxic prices by end of year. There's no inflation like energy inflation. Don't see how that would help equities though. Not really too sure what the bargains are in O&G really. Shale is doom and gloom with the stock price not yet reflecting it, and the majors around the world aren't selling at an awfully massive discount yet. I'm sure some are selling at a good discount, but I don't really know what those discounts are. Most of the talk I've seen seems to be centered around trying to play on obviously losing propositions like trying to profit off Whiting Petroleum before its bankruptcy proceeding leads to a -100% return on investment. When it comes to oil companies my winning horse would probably be rosneft. Don't think much comes close to Russia in commodity terms. But there's geopolitical risk and you can only buy their 'fake stock' GDRs afaik. Aramco maybe, also geopolitically risky. If you could find an ETF that focuses on oil companies stocks (not futures) that's probably not a bad pick, but I'm not familiar with them.
XLE tracks energy companies but only those within the S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/xle/holdings
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On May 19 2020 01:53 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:The green line go up thesis (assume market will go up and find big call volumes on the unusual options page) making me richer yet again Show nested quote +On May 18 2020 23:42 Vivax wrote:On May 18 2020 23:15 LegalLord wrote:On May 18 2020 23:01 Vivax wrote:On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting. They'll probably be nationalized. I got my eye on oil now, after a bunch of bankruptcy filings and production cuts there seems to be a buying frenzy now. That could backfire quickly into toxic prices by end of year. There's no inflation like energy inflation. Don't see how that would help equities though. Not really too sure what the bargains are in O&G really. Shale is doom and gloom with the stock price not yet reflecting it, and the majors around the world aren't selling at an awfully massive discount yet. I'm sure some are selling at a good discount, but I don't really know what those discounts are. Most of the talk I've seen seems to be centered around trying to play on obviously losing propositions like trying to profit off Whiting Petroleum before its bankruptcy proceeding leads to a -100% return on investment. When it comes to oil companies my winning horse would probably be rosneft. Don't think much comes close to Russia in commodity terms. But there's geopolitical risk and you can only buy their 'fake stock' GDRs afaik. Aramco maybe, also geopolitically risky. If you could find an ETF that focuses on oil companies stocks (not futures) that's probably not a bad pick, but I'm not familiar with them. XLE tracks energy companies but only those within the S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/xle/holdings
Dunno, some quite significant movement in Forex land again. Don't forget to take profits/reduce your positions from time to time.
Unusual options also shows huge June VIX 100 call volume on Friday, but it was Opex, can't tell if that's the reason (hedgers moving contracts ahead).
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On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting.
Demand for those seems to be almost entirely coming from retail, which makes me want to avoid it. I'm sure their FCF will be shot for a long time as they must be taking on debt to be able to cover their fixed expenses. If you want to ride a recovery wave I think the best choice would be commercial REITs, except in the short term those are really dependent on there not being more waves of SIP/quarantining...
The big pump today is making me nervous though
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On May 19 2020 02:35 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2020 01:53 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:The green line go up thesis (assume market will go up and find big call volumes on the unusual options page) making me richer yet again On May 18 2020 23:42 Vivax wrote:On May 18 2020 23:15 LegalLord wrote:On May 18 2020 23:01 Vivax wrote:On May 18 2020 22:48 LegalLord wrote:
Of the pump-and-dump, there is little doubt.
Airlines seem to be the most volatile right now. The news there is almost entirely apocalyptic, but the price jumps are interesting. They'll probably be nationalized. I got my eye on oil now, after a bunch of bankruptcy filings and production cuts there seems to be a buying frenzy now. That could backfire quickly into toxic prices by end of year. There's no inflation like energy inflation. Don't see how that would help equities though. Not really too sure what the bargains are in O&G really. Shale is doom and gloom with the stock price not yet reflecting it, and the majors around the world aren't selling at an awfully massive discount yet. I'm sure some are selling at a good discount, but I don't really know what those discounts are. Most of the talk I've seen seems to be centered around trying to play on obviously losing propositions like trying to profit off Whiting Petroleum before its bankruptcy proceeding leads to a -100% return on investment. When it comes to oil companies my winning horse would probably be rosneft. Don't think much comes close to Russia in commodity terms. But there's geopolitical risk and you can only buy their 'fake stock' GDRs afaik. Aramco maybe, also geopolitically risky. If you could find an ETF that focuses on oil companies stocks (not futures) that's probably not a bad pick, but I'm not familiar with them. XLE tracks energy companies but only those within the S&P 500: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/xle/holdings Dunno, some quite significant movement in Forex land again. Don't forget to take profits/reduce your positions from time to time. Unusual options also shows huge June VIX 100 call volume on Friday, but it was Opex, can't tell if that's the reason (hedgers moving contracts ahead).
Good point.
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Granted this is a bit tinfoily.
+ Show Spoiler +
This might show there's cracks appearing in the Potemkin village imo.
Sudden 11ish % drop below the open that the algos quickly 'fix'. Tells you how thin the ice is.
Can only guess the future but this is the type of stuff I don't want to see while being long.
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That was probably a fat finger on a limit sell order
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On May 19 2020 03:53 Vivax wrote:Granted this is a bit tinfoily. + Show Spoiler +This might show there's cracks appearing in the Potemkin village imo. Sudden 11ish % drop below the open that the algos quickly 'fix'. Tells you how thin the ice is. Can only guess the future but this is the type of stuff I don't want to see while being long.
How come I can't find any news about this? I tried German too.
If this actually happened and wasn't some sort of glitch I'd expect someone outside of this thread to mention it.
And if this happens usually and isn't newsworthy, what makes this one significant?
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This day has been really good to me. I'm up 160%. One stock I bought into a few weeks ago was at .69, and now is at $2. Can't wait for it to hit normal industry standards averaging $14-16. Buy Low Sell High has and will always work for me and anybody that puts effort into finding these gems at the cent value.
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On May 19 2020 07:06 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2020 03:53 Vivax wrote:Granted this is a bit tinfoily. + Show Spoiler +This might show there's cracks appearing in the Potemkin village imo. Sudden 11ish % drop below the open that the algos quickly 'fix'. Tells you how thin the ice is. Can only guess the future but this is the type of stuff I don't want to see while being long. How come I can't find any news about this? I tried German too. If this actually happened and wasn't some sort of glitch I'd expect someone outside of this thread to mention it. And if this happens usually and isn't newsworthy, what makes this one significant?
There are no news about this, got the chart from tradegate. If you look hard enough you could find similar flash crashes elsewhere probably.
Exchange takes what had to be a huge order at 4,40 from someone, instantly offered it for more or less the previous price.
Information gained: There was a big sell order. And I'd guess that the selling volume vastly surpassed the buying one.
So when big volumes start coming into the market at this point it might move the price down as quickly as that, though this time it wasn't enough to break support.
Or the printer is overheating.
Update for today, 05/19 13:00 GMT (+00:00): NDX flat pattern with bearish reversal candle. Let's see if I'm right
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
"Tech" stocks / NASDAQ seem to be back to the pre-crisis levels, with several stocks (FB, NVDA) hitting all-time highs again. The crisis of course isn't good for them, but it's not particularly surprising because "tech" growth seems to be driven heavily by cheap-money financial markets, and money truly can't get any cheaper right now. Maybe people think they'll acquire companies or something, idk.
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On May 20 2020 23:22 LegalLord wrote:
"Tech" stocks / NASDAQ seem to be back to the pre-crisis levels, with several stocks (FB, NVDA) hitting all-time highs again. The crisis of course isn't good for them, but it's not particularly surprising because "tech" growth seems to be driven heavily by cheap-money financial markets, and money truly can't get any cheaper right now. Maybe people think they'll acquire companies or something, idk.
Many tech stocks have bonds in the credit rating segment the Fed is going to buy.
Netflix for example is a Baa3 credit rating company with mostly IP assets, but considered worthy to be a FAANG.
Powell imo also slipped in the interview that these type of bonds are where the debt leverage is going. Buying those was against the law too according to an interview I have seen. Or at least, if they dip more than 20%, they break the law.
Today there's a 20Y bond auction, I'm curious to see who's going to buy those. Treasuries are pulling a USO but instead of oil they're trying to push the demand of debt financing into the future.
I also think a pattern emerged nicely in the Nasdaq showing what this is doing. After every dip with a volatility discharge, the steepness of the price change increases, and the plunges come more frequently.
If price stability as central bank mandate of the last years means volatility suppression, then the returns must ever be greater for high prices to keep outrunning it.
The kurtosis of the return distribution keeps narrowing and even small shocks to the downside cause volatility to catch up.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/OstQFMy.png)
Great reply, and to read between the lines. Fed covering their butts here after setting something in motion they are responsible for.
Also some movement in bitcoin land, one of the older wallets was moved. It was created in the wake of the GFC.
If I were a bank holder of some heavy bags like CLOs I'd just deposit them at the central bank as collateral, take a leveraged loan, dump it into bitcoins, and start a crypto hype. Not advice but my theory of what that stuff actually is.
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On May 20 2020 23:22 LegalLord wrote:
"Tech" stocks / NASDAQ seem to be back to the pre-crisis levels, with several stocks (FB, NVDA) hitting all-time highs again. The crisis of course isn't good for them, but it's not particularly surprising because "tech" growth seems to be driven heavily by cheap-money financial markets, and money truly can't get any cheaper right now. Maybe people think they'll acquire companies or something, idk.
I think the stock market spends a lot of its time at all time highs.
With population and technology increasing, so does GDP, a short term high unemployment spike shouldn't cause a massive change in the market in the long term. You could argue that we navigated COVID reasonably well and people are more confident we can handle disruptions in our world better than most people initially expected.
And were on a trend of fewer large companies rather than many smaller, so it reasonably checks out to me. Every year a larger percentage of the population spends time (and more time) online, cheaper to borrow money is just icing on the cake.
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United Kingdom13775 Posts
Given the gigantic lots full of cars I saw every time I went past my airport in the past two months, I'm not surprised to hear that today we have another casualty in the coronavirus crisis: rental cars.
What is surprising is how many paywalls there are behind this specific tidbit of news in general...
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Felt pretty pro/lucky today, sold most of my vfv position at the highest price of the day haha (74.80), unfortunately whole sale didn't go through.
Comfort level was going a bit down, so I decided to take the 10% over the last 3 months. Not confident that the US dollar can sustain that appreciation going into the election. Hoping to reenter in a couple weeks or a 4-5% drop, but probably will go with XSP (CAD hedged sp500).
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Trump dropped a stock market praise tweet, means I go short. Not advice.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/akPs1Oi.png)
