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On April 08 2026 03:01 Falling wrote:
It also makes sense to spare no expense if they are unsure what their base's tolerance level is for lost American lives. Whether Trump promised it or not, his base managed to convince themselves that Trump was the peace candidate, and they would get no forever wars in the Middle East. So much so that in some quarters of MAGA they began talking about how Churchill was the chief villain of WWII- very likely to justify forcing Ukraine to surrender to Russia. (It's what a misquoted Churchill claims he wishes they had done to avoid a war on the continent.) Tucker has lost his way. I knew that a long time ago, and he’s not MAGA. MAGA is saving our country. MAGA is making our country great again. MAGA is America first, and Tucker is none of those things. And Tucker is really not smart enough to understand that. Quite honestly, much of this appears to be public breaks from MAGA criticizing what it has become. If MAGA is just what Trump is doing at the moment, in his contradictory and puerile way, then it’s best seen as the figures that are post-MAGA having been rejected by TRUMP.
They’re mostly grifters, so they can’t really say they’re anti-MAGA and keep the money flowing. But they’re waiting in the wings for a post-Trump presidency in three years, or for some unforeseen collapse prior to that.
Now, Trump has proven his base didn't care that much about no wars as long as America looks big and tough, kidnapping presidents and flinging missiles from a distance. But this is post-Iraq and he still hasn't tested their tolerance for boots on the ground. So minimizing any loss at any cost makes sense. Threatening to glass Iran also follows with this line of thinking from the President of Peace.
And hell, I can't see the rank and file complaining that their bosses are willing to spend the resources to rescue them. In many respects the US military is the polar opposite of the Russian military. If money can save lives, they will spend it. Willing manpower is the finite resource, not money. Whereas Russia sends out the meatwaves. I don’t know if opposition from the “base” will show up in presidential approval polling or Iran war polling or anger over the gas prices or what.
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On April 08 2026 06:06 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2026 01:46 Artesimo wrote:On April 08 2026 01:16 Billyboy wrote:
That would be if they were using human shields for military targets. Like when Hamas puts a load of rockets under a hospital or daycare.
If the target is already off limits than it wouldn’t change things. I really hope this is not a forced thing from Iran, but them wanting a bunch of of their civilians to get bombed so the US looks worse is very on brand. Those people wilfully gathering there also completely changes the situation from the hamas example I think. But also just because you hit civilians doesn't automatically make it a war crime, its about the what would we considered disproportional civilian casualties. There is more wiggle room in those laws than most of us would think, lots of things that the laymen would consider civilian infrastructure can be classified as for military use, and all that. Safe to say though that I do not trust the US administration to make any of these judgements, actually I don't even expect them to consider it at all. The idiots at the top that is, trump and his gang. The thing here is that maybe there are acceptable civilian casualties while attacking a military target depending on the care taken to limit them and the number but there aren’t acceptable civilian casualties while attacking a civilian target for the purposes of terror.
Yes like I said, I don't trust the current US government to make that judgement call, and don't even expect them to consider the moral issue unless its after the fact to justify it. The only thing I would put trust in currently is that if such an outrageous order was given, the military would refuse it.
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On April 08 2026 06:12 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2026 03:05 Geiko wrote:
Betting on prices of assets going to certain levels isn't stupid per se, it's the whole point of Future markets. If you believe btc will maybe go up but definitely not reach 130k, there's really not simple way to bet on that with just longing and shorting. Calls and puts exist. What you’re hypothesizing would be a bull call spread, something like buying a call at 100k while simultaneously selling a call at 130k. If the price went to 120k then you’d book 20k profit on your 100k call plus whatever you were paid for the 130k call you sold. If the price went to 150k then you’d make 50k on the 100k call but lose 20k on the 130k call you sold. Doing it with prop bets is absurd.
There's nothing absurd about doing it with polymarket style prop bets.
Like I said, the alternatives are much more complex. Doing a bull/bear call spread works as you pointed out, but that assumes you're confident enough in your trading skills to do that. Clicking "buy" on polymarket is comparatively easier.
Also, not many crypto platforms allow you to trade puts and calls, and the ones that do definitely require you to KYC. Polymarket is (to my knowledge) plug wallet in -> bet-> plug wallet out.
You're basically trading 1-2% fees for convenience. Which is suboptimal but definitely not absurd. I consider myself as someone very allergic to paying fees but if I ever wanted to do a 300$ prop bet on the price of crypto I would definitely do it on polymarket/kalshi rather than set up a trading profile on a crypto brokerage.
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Also I gotta say, I am absolutely flabbergasted by how little actual resistance there seems to be against trump and his cronies. For reference, here in germany there was the worry that the AfD (right wing shitters, certified nazis and a danger to our consitution) might end up being the strongest or at least a significant party in the last big elections. This not only prompted me to vote against what I would normally vote to ensure what I believed would be a more stable government than the one that failed before it, but I also ended up doing canvassing. I also ended up talking to people in my general social circle where I wasn't sure if they might be tempted to vote AfD. Its don't want to oversell it, it was not a massive effort, a bunch of weekends that I could have used for more fun things, but the point is me, someone who is not very politically active, felt like they had to do something just based on the threat that our nazi shitters might get into a significant political position. Not even the government, just to a point where they can make life very difficult for the ruling parties. Now I watched what seems way worse unfold in the us twice, and the 2nd time around its even wilder and... there is just barely anything compared to the fuckery that is going on?
I understand that the 2 party system in the US makes things a bit more complicated, but it is really hard for me to accept what to me seems like a severe amount of just putting up with whatever shit donny does and sticking true to party lines no matter what mad king is in charge. It feels like every other week there is something that makes all the troubles, problems, and scandals that I cared a lot about in our politics pale in comparison, and I just don't get it.
Maybe there are massive amount of protests and initiatives that do not get reported on her in germany and my impression is completely wrong, but currently it feels like the general population in the US is exercising criminal negligence.
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We had the three largest protests in our country's history back-to-back and we're trying to organize a general strike. If you want to say that's not enough, ok, hard to argue with that given what's going on, but it's not nothing.
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Canada11477 Posts
Well the No Kings protest in October had something like 7 million people and the one last week had 8 million, but I don't know how much they were covered. Probably not very well as the media landscape is getting gobbled up by those playing friendly to Trump.
Also, now Vance is stumping for Orban?
Is it for the love of Putin or their hatred for the EU or their hatred for Ukraine/ Zelensky? Seriously, Orban has been a thorn in the side of anything happening with the EU. If Trump cared about making his European allies more effective under no circumstances should he be trying to prop up Orban. But if he's supporting Putin's geopolitical scheming... well, good job?
It's amazing to see an American administration so supportive of Russian expansionism... but then again Trump's actions mirror Putin's own. Except Putin is smarter to leave the 'glass Ukraine' rhetoric to his faithful state tv propagandists whereas Trump has to come out and say it himself. However, it looking like it's Taco Tuesday so it's a good day for the citizens of Iran and therefore the world?
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On April 08 2026 07:18 LightSpectra wrote:
We had the three largest protests in our country's history back-to-back and we're trying to organize a general strike. If you want to say that's not enough, ok, hard to argue with that given what's going on, but it's not nothing.
Its not nothing, but it also doesn't blow me away. The rise of the AfD back in 2024 sparked protests in multiple cities that had almost a million people attending in total. Not as much as the no kings protests, even when comparing it to per capita, but also for a cause that is a lot less severe. I would have hoped for more pushback from his own party because the voter base doesn't accept the scandals, I would expect more news about people resigning in protest and the like. And when I talk to my american friends none of them like trump, all of them think he is a horrible danger and all that, but barely any of them did any kind of activism against it. Some of them attended the mentioned protests and confronted relatives about the shit they are supporting, but that is about it. I swear talking to many of them feels exactly like when I talk to some of my russian friends about their government. The people that my american friends not too long ago told me should rise up and sort out their much more oppressive government.
It is extremely frustrating to watch from afar and quite worrying because it makes me wonder what the cause of all that complacency is and if its just a matter of time before people act the same over here.
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The floated 2 week ceasefire must have been agreed, Brent dropped 10% in like 15 minutes.
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On April 08 2026 07:31 Artesimo wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2026 07:18 LightSpectra wrote:
We had the three largest protests in our country's history back-to-back and we're trying to organize a general strike. If you want to say that's not enough, ok, hard to argue with that given what's going on, but it's not nothing. Its not nothing, but it also doesn't blow me away. The rise of the AfD back in 2024 sparked protests in multiple cities that had almost a million people attending in total. Not as much as the no kings protests, even when comparing it to per capita, but also for a cause that is a lot less severe. I would have hoped for more pushback from his own party because the voter base doesn't accept the scandals, I would expect more news about people resigning in protest and the like. And when I talk to my american friends none of them like trump, all of them think he is a horrible danger and all that, but barely any of them did any kind of activism against it. Some of them attended the mentioned protests and confronted relatives about the shit they are supporting, but that is about it. I swear talking to many of them feels exactly like when I talk to some of my russian friends about their government. The people that my american friends not too long ago told me should rise up and sort out their much more oppressive government. It is extremely frustrating to watch from afar and quite worrying because it makes me wonder what the cause of all that complacency is and if its just a matter of time before people act the same over here.
The issue is we don't have snap elections in our Constitution, the only real way to enact change is for Republican Congressmen to choose to turn on the administration before the next election. Most of them don't care how big the protests get because they have a cushy lobbying job lined up if they stay the course. So right now we're in the 'raise awareness, build grassroots networks' stage, and the next step is a general strike so that Republican-aligned megacorps decide it's not worth their trouble anymore. Problem is it's not something that can be done overnight because there's been over a century of legislation and propaganda designed to keep unions as weak as possible. We can moralize at each other about not doing more to resist far-right authoritarianism but I don't see any point in that, I'm trying to be realistic.
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doubleupgradeobbies!
Australia1251 Posts
On April 08 2026 07:46 NovaTheFeared wrote:
The floated 2 week ceasefire must have been agreed, Brent dropped 10% in like 15 minutes.
Honestly the US government has been so schizophrenic in the last few weeks, it feels like all the decisions are just being made by some dudes watching Polymarket odds.
Fortunately, while the US is completely unpredictable, Israel is completely predictable. I don't see this as a sign of a downward trend in Brent, just some people making short term bets.
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United States24768 Posts
You trust anything Trump says? Where is the verification?
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it was open before the fucking war started
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Iran disagrees that Trump is a great negotiator, says he’s a chicken and they won.
“The enemy, in its unfair, unlawful, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat,” the statement read.
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On April 08 2026 08:23 LightSpectra wrote:it was open before the fucking war started
yes, and Iran was this close + Show Spoiler +i'm holding my thumb 2 millimetres from my pointer finger
From this perspective , this is a clear win for our President.
On April 08 2026 08:30 Billyboy wrote:Iran disagrees that Trump is a great negotiator, says he’s a chicken and they won. Show nested quote + “The enemy, in its unfair, unlawful, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat,” the statement read.
Where does it say Trump is a chicken in this quote? Also, who authorized this statement and who is running Iran any way? Ariya Daivari?
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United States43827 Posts
That post doesn't say that they're going to open it, it says that he'd be willing to do a ceasefire if they did.
Also Iran's 10 point proposal that he says he can use as a basis for a peace is a US surrender. There's nothing in there about nuclear disarmaments or inspections, just that the US and Israel will stop attacking Iran and Iran will have control of Hormuz.Iran’s 10-point peace plan
Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again
Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire
End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon
Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran
End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies
Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Iran would impose a $2m fee per ship transiting Hormuz
Iran would split these fees with Oman
Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hormuz
Iran would use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations
Trump described the proposed surrender to Iran as We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate.
In any case, what we're seeing here is that 1 hour before the expiration of the final final deadline after the last final deadline was extended for the fourth time Trump is issuing another two week extension. That's called TACO.
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I appreciate your sarcasm about how Trump is a great negotiator!
On April 08 2026 08:32 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2026 08:23 LightSpectra wrote:it was open before the fucking war started yes, and Iran was this close + Show Spoiler +i'm holding my thumb 2 millimetres from my pointer finger to having a nuclear bomb. Now, the strait is open AND Iran no longer represents a clear and present danger to the land of Hulk Hogan and John Wayne. THis is a clear win for President Trump.
Wait, wtf? This isn't a win for Trump. He achieved nothing, his war may or may not even be over, he further destroyed relationships with allies, he caused further chaos in the Middle East, and it was still barely a distraction from his Epstein files (so we can still go back to focusing on how he's a child rapist).
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United States43827 Posts
I bet that when Iran ends up in control of the strait and opens their toll booth for anyone who pays $2m Trump will sell that to Jimmy as the strait being open, after all ships are passing through.
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Northern Ireland26511 Posts
On April 08 2026 08:30 Billyboy wrote:Iran disagrees that Trump is a great negotiator, says he’s a chicken and they won. Show nested quote + “The enemy, in its unfair, unlawful, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat,” the statement read.
Trump is an idiot’s idea of a great negotiator
No fan of Iran but they’re right here.
What’s he ever negotiated successfully where he wasn’t already holding a stacked hand?
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How quickly do the markets react to this?
My suspicion for garbage like this is always that he's saying this shit so a handful of people with insider knowledge can make a few million bucks each. Then, when time reveals it to be bullshit and the markets resume following reality he can do it all over again. Truth doesn't matter if you're powerful enough to move the markets with words, and insider trading at that level is virtually unenforced.
(I lack the knowledge or understanding for this to be much more than a conspiracy theory from me, and I recognize that. Others would have to corroborate and/or provide evidence for it to have weight.)
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EPT
