|
Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
United States24663 Posts
On June 24 2025 08:22 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2025 07:45 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2025 06:24 Mohdoo wrote:On June 24 2025 06:14 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2025 05:01 Mohdoo wrote:Trump seems to be signaling he's cool walking away at this point. If this is the end of our involvement, I'm extremely pleased with how Trump handled it. Stepping in for a moment to entirely remove any hope Iran ever develops a nuclear weapon, then leaving right after, is ideal. Since optimism is generally proven wrong, I remain concerned something breaks. But hopefully not.
Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
How does this prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon or other kind of WMD such as a dirty bomb? Some bombs were dropped in the vicinity of extremely hardened sites and victory was declared but how do you know that victory was achieved? I will let Micronesia correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is the 60% uranium they have is insufficient for making a weapon. And that's assuming Israel didn't take it themselves. And I am also under the impression it is impossible to access Fordow without a great deal of time and effort. So even in a scenario where Fordow remains operational, there is no feasible way to access it. And Israel would of course bomb any small attempt immediately. Mossad has also likely benefited enormously from over a week of controlling Tehran's airspace. I can't imagine Iran would ever manage to get uranium enrichment back online without Mossad knowing about it. But again, this is just my understanding, so of course feel free to correct anything I am wrong about. A fission weapon or any weapon? Because I suspect for the purpose of raining uranium on Tel Aviv some pulverized 60% uranium loaded onto a missile will probably work fine. Sorry for my ignorance, but is that what a dirty bomb is? The thing I think was important was preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon. I don't know if 60% uranium can be used for a dirty bomb or something, but if so, I agree that would mean the uranium being unaccounted for would mean the whole thing was a failure. But I have no idea, so I will just defer to micronesia like I normally do. My impression is enrichment is totally impossible for Iran at this point though. Does that match your understanding? They can try, but the time necessary to get up and running appears to prevent anything from ever actually succeeding. Iran will likely never be able to defend their air space from Israel.
If you launch a missile at a city carrying a dirty bomb, typically what matters is that a bomb-carrying missile (i.e., conventional explosion) is going to damage a city and kill people. The after-effects of the radioactivity are barely more than a footnote by comparison.
Dirty bombs would logically be loaded with fission products (i.e., not uranium) or maybe transuranics (i.e., not uranium, as stated directly in the name). Dirty bombs with enriched uranium wouldn't be that different than dirty bombs with natural uranium, which can be freely mined without enrichment.
|
On June 24 2025 06:36 LightSpectra wrote:
Israel will be done when Likud is polling better, so it might take awhile, but it has no bearing whatsoever to the state of Iran's nuclear enrichment program.
I guess they must be polling better, or its fake news, who knows with Trump.
|
On June 24 2025 08:46 micronesia wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2025 08:22 Mohdoo wrote:On June 24 2025 07:45 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2025 06:24 Mohdoo wrote:On June 24 2025 06:14 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2025 05:01 Mohdoo wrote:Trump seems to be signaling he's cool walking away at this point. If this is the end of our involvement, I'm extremely pleased with how Trump handled it. Stepping in for a moment to entirely remove any hope Iran ever develops a nuclear weapon, then leaving right after, is ideal. Since optimism is generally proven wrong, I remain concerned something breaks. But hopefully not.
Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
How does this prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon or other kind of WMD such as a dirty bomb? Some bombs were dropped in the vicinity of extremely hardened sites and victory was declared but how do you know that victory was achieved? I will let Micronesia correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is the 60% uranium they have is insufficient for making a weapon. And that's assuming Israel didn't take it themselves. And I am also under the impression it is impossible to access Fordow without a great deal of time and effort. So even in a scenario where Fordow remains operational, there is no feasible way to access it. And Israel would of course bomb any small attempt immediately. Mossad has also likely benefited enormously from over a week of controlling Tehran's airspace. I can't imagine Iran would ever manage to get uranium enrichment back online without Mossad knowing about it. But again, this is just my understanding, so of course feel free to correct anything I am wrong about. A fission weapon or any weapon? Because I suspect for the purpose of raining uranium on Tel Aviv some pulverized 60% uranium loaded onto a missile will probably work fine. Sorry for my ignorance, but is that what a dirty bomb is? The thing I think was important was preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon. I don't know if 60% uranium can be used for a dirty bomb or something, but if so, I agree that would mean the uranium being unaccounted for would mean the whole thing was a failure. But I have no idea, so I will just defer to micronesia like I normally do. My impression is enrichment is totally impossible for Iran at this point though. Does that match your understanding? They can try, but the time necessary to get up and running appears to prevent anything from ever actually succeeding. Iran will likely never be able to defend their air space from Israel. If you launch a missile at a city carrying a dirty bomb, typically what matters is that a bomb-carrying missile (i.e., conventional explosion) is going to damage a city and kill people. The after-effects of the radioactivity are barely more than a footnote by comparison. Dirty bombs would logically be loaded with fission products (i.e., not uranium) or maybe transuranics (i.e., not uranium, as stated directly in the name). Dirty bombs with enriched uranium wouldn't be that different than dirty bombs with natural uranium, which can be freely mined without enrichment.
Thank you, that's helpful.
If you don't mind me asking a couple follow up questions, I'd appreciate it. As you can imagine, the politics of this situation make it wildly difficult to find good information about all this.
1: Ignoring enrichment and whatnot, in a vacuum, is 60% uranium something Iran could weaponize?
2: If we assume all the enrichment in Iran other than Fordow was destroyed, and we assume Fordow's...elevator? entrance? or whatever is totally destroyed, though perhaps the facility itself is intact, does that mean Iran's ability to enrich uranium is totally gone? Meaning even if they have 60% uranium, not really much they could ever hope to do with it because the enrichment process being constructed or pursued would itself be noticed by Israel?
My understanding of everything is that even if Fordow is somehow functional all the way down there, the excavation necessary to reach it would be so involved Israel or the US would have an enormous window of time to intervene such that Fordow is functionally destroyed. And it sounds like the other facilities are much more conclusively destroyed. And so they would need to just build a new enrichment facility, but Israel or the US would of course be able to tell they are working on it months before it is ever completed?
|
United States24663 Posts
I don't actually know much about how to make nuclear weapons, and I don't know what nuclear work would or would not be detectable by other countries.
Also, while I can say 60% enrichment is high enough to support a potential bomb, it would require differences in design than the well-known models so I don't know what the feasibility or tradeoffs are.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
