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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
United States41995 Posts
On June 11 2018 05:09 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2018 04:33 KwarK wrote:On June 11 2018 04:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 11 2018 03:46 Talula wrote:On June 11 2018 03:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 11 2018 03:36 Talula wrote:On June 11 2018 02:57 JimmyJRaynor wrote:https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/09/as-he-takes-parting-shots-at-us-allies-trump-cuts-out-early-from-the-g7-summit.htmlTrump will probably make good on part of his threats. He probably will cut trade ties with at least a small # of countries. If anything just to scare his other trading partners. Canada should attempt to fill the void created by Trump/USA's new isolationist mentality and increase the amount of trading they do with the USA. As next door neighbours its a natural fit. Canadians need to realize their standard of living is contingent upon Americans buying everything they produce. Their Canadian "pride" needs to go. As Marcellus Wallace said in Pulp Fiction: "Fuck Pride. Pride only hurts. It never helps." + Show Spoiler +if Trudeau can negotiate with this perspective in mind he can create a deal that is good for the average canadian worker and "win" the deal. He may have to absorb a few personal insults along the way. Oh well. Welcome to negotiating a trade deal with a reality TV star. Trudeau would be wise to listen to you and Marcellus Wallace. Trump may not be the most "politically correct" President we've had, but our economy is booming and my pay check increased this year because of TRUMP! What's your job? Please explain the causal relationship between Trump and your paycheck's increase. I am a civil servant that gets paid every 2 weeks. The tax cuts Trump introduced became effective in January of this year. My paycheck increased roughly $100 as a direct result. I did nothing different, no raise, no insurance payment reductions, nothing and I'm seeing $100 more each paycheck. Also, I'm a she, not a he  Very cool  Do you ever worry about some of the important organizations that have been defunded by Trump- agencies which have shown to serve a universal public good for all people- in order for Trump to introduce these tax cuts (which, if I understand correctly, go mostly to rich people who don't need them but have helped you as an individual too)? She doesn't understand how taxes work. It's not the government taking tax money out of her paycheck, it's her. She's taking $100 less out of her own paycheck and thanking Trump for it. Her taxes may be lower this year, and it may be that they're lower by $2,600. But that certainly can't be established from her withholding $100 less from each paycheck. You can just do that. She could give HR a W4 tomorrow marked EXEMPT and tell herself that Trump completely ended taxes if she wanted, wouldn't make it true. If she were to state her filing status, number of dependents, gross income, and above/below the line deductions I could work it out for her though. So you think it is unlikely that she is accurately reporting that her tax burden per paycheck did, indeed, decrease? It doesn't seem that implausible to me. The number could well be right. It sounds plausible. However withholding per paycheck is simply not a measure of taxes owed. That's just not what that number does.
A change in withholding is not the same thing as a change in taxes owed. Reporting data on one does not allow you to draw conclusions about the other. The claim of $2,600 lower tax obligation per year may be true, I'm certainly not saying that it's definitely false. However the claim of $2,600 lower tax obligation per year is not in any way supported by the data of $100 lower withholding per pay check.
To give a simple example, imagine that she used to withhold $10k/year and get a $5k refund in April for a $5k total obligation. Logically a reduction of withholding by $2.6k/year resulting from a change in tax law would imply a $3.7k tax obligation, and a $3.7k refund the following April for a net change in real tax obligation of $1.3k, not $2.6k.
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Yes, I know. But perhaps we should give someone the benefit of the doubt in knowing what they are talking about when they say something otherwise plausible.
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United States41995 Posts
On June 11 2018 05:26 IgnE wrote: Yes, I know. But perhaps we should give someone the benefit of the doubt in knowing what they are talking about when they say something otherwise plausible. She specifically said that her withholding was lower by $100 per paycheck, and that she was extrapolating from that. If I told you that it was sunny outside and extrapolated global warming then you'd not give me a pass on it just because global warming is plausibly true.
So no, I don't think the benefit of the doubt should be given. On the contrary, the fact that she presented withholding change as data should do the opposite, reducing her credibility. If it was her intent to provide her own anecdotal evidence on change in tax obligation she would not have provided change in withholding, unless she didn't understand that they're not the same.
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On June 11 2018 04:57 Dan HH wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2018 04:01 Danglars wrote:On June 11 2018 03:50 Excludos wrote:On June 11 2018 03:46 Talula wrote:On June 11 2018 03:40 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On June 11 2018 03:36 Talula wrote:On June 11 2018 02:57 JimmyJRaynor wrote:https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2018/06/09/as-he-takes-parting-shots-at-us-allies-trump-cuts-out-early-from-the-g7-summit.htmlTrump will probably make good on part of his threats. He probably will cut trade ties with at least a small # of countries. If anything just to scare his other trading partners. Canada should attempt to fill the void created by Trump/USA's new isolationist mentality and increase the amount of trading they do with the USA. As next door neighbours its a natural fit. Canadians need to realize their standard of living is contingent upon Americans buying everything they produce. Their Canadian "pride" needs to go. As Marcellus Wallace said in Pulp Fiction: "Fuck Pride. Pride only hurts. It never helps." + Show Spoiler +https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruhFmBrl4GM if Trudeau can negotiate with this perspective in mind he can create a deal that is good for the average canadian worker and "win" the deal. He may have to absorb a few personal insults along the way. Oh well. Welcome to negotiating a trade deal with a reality TV star. Trudeau would be wise to listen to you and Marcellus Wallace. Trump may not be the most "politically correct" President we've had, but our economy is booming and my pay check increased this year because of TRUMP! What's your job? Please explain the causal relationship between Trump and your paycheck's increase. I am a civil servant that gets paid every 2 weeks. The tax cuts Trump introduced became effective in January of this year. My paycheck increased roughly $100 as a direct result. I did nothing different, no raise, no insurance payment reductions, nothing and I'm seeing $100 more each paycheck. And you are certain that it didn't just increase yearly to keep up with the nation average of that job type, which would have happened regardless? The way you explain it, it seems like you don't know how much of your salary actually goes to taxes (which is weird), and it just looking at what comes in to your bank account instead of your payslip. If you had, you would have easily been able to say "I used to pay X in taxes now I pay Y off of the same salary", instead of this "I did nothing different I swear!" His take home pay increase is fairly typical of the results of the tax cut signed by Trump. It’s also extremely common to look only at the value of the check (and any changes) and not how much was withheld for taxes here in America. It may sound weird to foreigners but it’s pretty standard here, particularly in working class jobs. It is weird. Over here even before getting the pay slip it takes a couple minutes to calculate the gross and net salary for the current month, provided you're sure about how many hours of regular time and overtime you're working in that month and variables like sick days, paid leave or bonuses if applied. I've done that a few times out of curiosity when at a new job or after a raise and it was accurate. Please understand the difference between “you are weird for doing this” and “Americans are weird for doing this.” I explained how common this is in America without implying it is or should be common practice worldwide. Europeans may not understand what is normally done in America, regardless of particular merits.
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Seriously though Kwark, I don't understand this concept that you have to be an accountant to determine how to pay your tax. Nearly everyone calculates their own tax in the UK, unless you happen to have multiple sources of incomes, and even then HM Revenue runs adverts telling people that they should be able to complete it in half an hour with no fuss. I naturally assumed that all developed countries would have easily understandable tax codes for the common person.
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The thing is, it's not really hard to calculate your withholdings so your taxes owed/ refund is minimal. I have never had a refund or cut a check for more than a couple hundred bucks, acknowledging that it is super easy as salaried. For hourly w/ overtime or commission workers it might be harder to get your withholdings exactly right, but even then folks shouldn't be off by too much.
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United States41995 Posts
On June 11 2018 07:52 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Seriously though Kwark, I don't understand this concept that you have to be an accountant to determine how to pay your tax. Nearly everyone calculates their own tax in the UK, unless you happen to have multiple sources of incomes, and even then HM Revenue runs adverts telling people that they should be able to complete it in half an hour with no fuss. I naturally assumed that all developed countries would have easily understandable tax codes for the common person. Most Americans don't understand how progressive tax rates work. They think that if they earn an extra dollar that pushes them up to a higher rate then their entire income is taxed at the higher rate. They don't know the difference between a deduction (money that isn't taxed) and a credit (money taken off your tax bill) and would struggle to tell you which is better, even with the description I just gave.
But even if we assumed that Americans had a basic level of civics education and could understand that kind of concept, there's still a few other weird areas. Above the line vs under the line deductions, exemptions (which are being removed until the Democrats retake the WH, then they'll probably come back), multiple rates for different classes of cap gains, and so forth.
The tax prep industry also lobbies pretty hard to keep the system a mess.
Basically the American system is way more complicated than it needs to be AND the American public couldn't understand a simple system anyway.
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Armed with rolls of clear Scotch tape, Lartey and his colleagues would sift through large piles of shredded paper and put them back together, he said, “like a jigsaw puzzle.” Sometimes the papers would just be split down the middle, but other times they would be torn into pieces so small they looked like confetti.
It was a painstaking process that was the result of a clash between legal requirements to preserve White House records and President Donald Trump’s odd and enduring habit of ripping up papers when he’s done with them — what some people described as his unofficial “filing system.”
Under the Presidential Records Act, the White House must preserve all memos, letters, emails and papers that the president touches, sending them to the National Archives for safekeeping as historical records.
But White House aides realized early on that they were unable to stop Trump from ripping up paper after he was done with it and throwing it in the trash or on the floor, according to people familiar with the practice. Instead, they chose to clean it up for him, in order to make sure that the president wasn’t violating the law.
Staffers had the fragments of paper collected from the Oval Office as well as the private residence and send it over to records management across the street from the White House for Larkey and his colleagues to reassemble.
“We got Scotch tape, the clear kind,” Lartey recalled in an interview. “You found pieces and taped them back together and then you gave it back to the supervisor.” The restored papers would then be sent to the National Archives to be properly filed away.
Lartey said the papers he received included newspaper clips on which Trump had scribbled notes, or circled words; invitations; and letters from constituents or lawmakers on the Hill, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
“I had a letter from Schumer — he tore it up,” he said. “It was the craziest thing ever. He ripped papers into tiny pieces.” www.politico.com Reading this article, I can't help but think that it's only a matter of time until something really important gets irrevocably destroyed.
On a more personal level, wtf? This habit of destroying everything after he's done with it is totally at odds with Trump's presentation of himself as a successful business man, but it makes a tremendous amount of sense for a person regularly engaged in illegal activity who is trying to avoid leaving a paper trail.
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Turns out the 2020 race for the Democratic nomination is already starting.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has come calling as recently as April. Kamala Harris, the first-term senator of California, has made repeated visits, starting as early as her third month in office. Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. is also no stranger to the big-money donor world of New York; he was here in April — his third such visit in three months.
It will be months before Mr. Biden, Ms. Harris, Ms. Warren or most potential presidential aspirants will barnstorm across the farmlands of Iowa, dig into a low-country boil in South Carolina or field questions at a town-hall meeting in New Hampshire.
But with American presidential races requiring an ever-dizzying amount of money, an early, behind-the-scenes 2020 contest is already taking place: the New York money primary.
Over passed appetizers, intimate dinners and private board room meet-and-greets, a parade of nationally ambitious Democrats have been cycling through the offices and living rooms of the Manhattan money set.
Others calling and visiting include Terry McAuliffe, the former Virginia governor; Mayor Eric Garcetti of Los Angeles; former Gov. Deval Patrick of Massachusetts; Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana; and the former Missouri Senate candidate, Jason Kander. Then there are the ambitious locals who already keep their donor lists close at hand: Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo and Senators Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Cory Booker of New Jersey and Chris Murphy of Connecticut.
The lone Democratic outlier from the money chase is Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who bypassed large contributors in his 2016 presidential bid and still raised about $230 million, almost entirely from a torrent of small online donations — a model that many Democrats are trying to emulate.
www.nytimes.com
Of course the Democrats learned absolutely nothing from 2016 and are clamoring to be some billionaires pet. Then they wonder why people aren't motivated to vote for them.
Looks like a rather unimpressive list of folks to choose from anyway. Warren seems like the only one that could get enough progressive support to actually have a shot at beating Trump but I can't imagine the right wing of the party embracing her. Seems Democrats are going to have to choose between moving left or losing to Trump and they seem to be favoring losing to Trump.
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Warren has no chance nationally. I like her a lot, but her brand is Pelosi levels of toxic outside of the Democratic Party. And the last thing the Democratic Party needs is to nominate anyone from Massachusetts who’s last name isn’t Kennedy.
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if you live in a very liberal area then Warren or similar might seem like a winning choice against Trump 2020. in fact most voters live in not very liberal states and they'd be horrified about such progressive ideas. the Democrats need to elect a populist to have any chance.
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A strong pro labor and improving healthcare platform is fine. The Republicans can’t run on repealing the ACA any more, so the Democratic Party no longer has to run from their signature accomplishment. And campaign finance reform. The populism of promising silly things like a wall that will never get built is not necessary to win.
But when it comes to candidates, they just need a wide field with a lot of options. No more clearing the field for a couple candidates.
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I'd like to see Tulsi Gabbard run... if not for president at least as VP.
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Can't help but notice how many prominent female politicians are being considered for Democrats in 2020. Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Gabbard. Ever since the 1990's, Democrat's female congressional numbers have dwarfed that of Republicans. There's Currently 3x more female Democrats in both the House and Senate than Republicans. What happened from 1990-2000 that instigated such a big gender gap between the parties?
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On June 11 2018 03:59 BigFan wrote: I'm glad that Trudeau is sticking with it rather than bending over. The statements made by Trump's advisor are freaking ridiculous and stupid as hell. They actually expect Canada to just take the tariffs and be quiet? Won't happen.
What's interesting is that this is precisely the position of Europe and Canada on many issues.
The United States should just take Germany and other European countries not living up to their NATO treaty obligations and be quiet.
The United States should just take tariffs and other uncompetitive trade policies from Canada and Germany etc. and be quiet.
I have yet to actually see an argument that the trade policies Trump complains about aren't unfair, instead it is just outrage that he would even dare express displeasure with them. The double standard is quite impressive.
The simple fact is that weak countries (in relation to the United States) have been acting for decades in certain areas of relations like they are strong countries. Their entitled leaders have reacted quite hysterically to the government of the United States, the stronger country, being unwilling unwilling at the moment to let that continue, and showing willingness to use its superior strength to change the situation.
I certainly understand their position, they've had a very good deal from the United States, generally speaking, since the war. If I were them I wouldn't want things to change. But they are making a rather large miscalculation if they think their current course will succeed.
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On June 11 2018 10:59 Tachion wrote: Can't help but notice how many prominent female politicians are being considered for Democrats in 2020. Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, Gabbard. Ever since the 1990's, Democrat's female congressional numbers have dwarfed that of Republicans. There's Currently 3x more female Democrats in both the House and Senate than Republicans. What happened from 1990-2000 that instigated such a big gender gap between the parties? I'm going to guess that traditional values doesn't promote women in leadership roles. Then when you add a level of machismo into the mix it can become detrimental.
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I really dislike this future where our President has one bad meeting and now he is calling NATO a protection racket and calling calling the trade deficit a surplus budget for the EU. The money from trade doesn’t go to he governments. We are picking fights with our allies for no real reason other than they won’t put up with our presidents shit. Trump could try to pull out of NAFTA this week. The man lacks the emotional endurance for foreign policy.
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United States41995 Posts
On June 11 2018 11:51 DeepElemBlues wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2018 03:59 BigFan wrote: I'm glad that Trudeau is sticking with it rather than bending over. The statements made by Trump's advisor are freaking ridiculous and stupid as hell. They actually expect Canada to just take the tariffs and be quiet? Won't happen. What's interesting is that this is precisely the position of Europe and Canada on many issues. The United States should just take Germany and other European countries not living up to their NATO treaty obligations and be quiet. The United States should just take tariffs and other uncompetitive trade policies from Canada and Germany etc. and be quiet. I have yet to actually see an argument that the trade policies Trump complains about aren't unfair, instead it is just outrage that he would even dare express displeasure with them. The double standard is quite impressive. The simple fact is that weak countries (in relation to the United States) have been acting for decades in certain areas of relations like they are strong countries. Their entitled leaders have reacted quite hysterically to the government of the United States, the stronger country, being unwilling unwilling at the moment to let that continue, and showing willingness to use its superior strength to change the situation. I certainly understand their position, they've had a very good deal from the United States, generally speaking, since the war. If I were them I wouldn't want things to change. But they are making a rather large miscalculation if they think their current course will succeed. Consider the example of the dairy tariffs that Trump was complaining about earlier.
The US dairy industry is having a fucking bad time at the moment. Supply has exceeded demand for a few years now so prices have fallen hard. But large farms can't easily scale back production, per unit costs to the farm are low, it's the overhead that fucks them, so they can't just produce 50% less milk for 50% of the expenses. Instead they're actually selling milk to wholesalers at a loss. The farmers are getting up, working 12 hours of hard labour, and going to bed poorer than they were when they woke up. They're just hoping that one day market conditions may improve, but it's been a few years now and it's gotten so bad that US dairy farmers get suicide prevention advice with their paychecks. https://www.npr.org/2018/02/27/586586267/as-milk-prices-decline-worries-about-dairy-farmer-suicides-rise
While the American response to the problem is "let farmers kill themselves until the supply inevitably drops to meet demand #freemarket" the Canadians responded by centrally setting wholesale prices at an artificially high level so that the average Canadian consumer is effectively subsidizing Canadian dairy farmers. This can only work if everyone plays by the same rules though. The tariff that Trump is complaining about is the one that prevents US milk from undercutting the price that Canadian dairy farmers get.
They're not refusing to change because they hate America and are taking advantage. They're refusing to change because they don't want any of your suicide milk.
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On June 11 2018 11:51 DeepElemBlues wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2018 03:59 BigFan wrote: I'm glad that Trudeau is sticking with it rather than bending over. The statements made by Trump's advisor are freaking ridiculous and stupid as hell. They actually expect Canada to just take the tariffs and be quiet? Won't happen. What's interesting is that this is precisely the position of Europe and Canada on many issues. The United States should just take Germany and other European countries not living up to their NATO treaty obligations and be quiet. The United States should just take tariffs and other uncompetitive trade policies from Canada and Germany etc. and be quiet. I have yet to actually see an argument that the trade policies Trump complains about aren't unfair, instead it is just outrage that he would even dare express displeasure with them. The double standard is quite impressive. The simple fact is that weak countries (in relation to the United States) have been acting for decades in certain areas of relations like they are strong countries. Their entitled leaders have reacted quite hysterically to the government of the United States, the stronger country, being unwilling unwilling at the moment to let that continue, and showing willingness to use its superior strength to change the situation. I certainly understand their position, they've had a very good deal from the United States, generally speaking, since the war. If I were them I wouldn't want things to change. But they are making a rather large miscalculation if they think their current course will succeed. I'm not positive, but I'm pretty sure that the collection of nations that make up the EU, NAFTA, and any other major trade partners of the United States can collectively soak the damage of all trade with the US ending far better than the US can soak the damage of ending all trade with the rest of the world.
Individually, any given nation might have a weaker economy than the United States, but collectively the economy of the rest of the world is far larger and more robust than that of the United States.
Also worth considering is that Trump is remarkably unpopular with the rest of the world. So are his ideas about trade. Most democratic governments, given the choice between standing up to Trump or bending over for him will have the support of their citizens for standing up to him.
If all nations of the world were autocracies and this situation was just about leveraging economic power to force other nations into line, the US might have a chance. However, most of the countries involved are democracies. If Trump's policy on trade causes a serious dip in the US economy, it's reasonable to conclude that he'll be voted out of office. Other nations in general might not have any parties embracing a "bow to the US" platform for economic foreign policy, which functionally translates to universal support for cutting off all trade with the US (or letting the US cut off all trade with them) before rolling over for the US.
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On June 11 2018 12:15 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On June 11 2018 11:51 DeepElemBlues wrote:On June 11 2018 03:59 BigFan wrote: I'm glad that Trudeau is sticking with it rather than bending over. The statements made by Trump's advisor are freaking ridiculous and stupid as hell. They actually expect Canada to just take the tariffs and be quiet? Won't happen. What's interesting is that this is precisely the position of Europe and Canada on many issues. The United States should just take Germany and other European countries not living up to their NATO treaty obligations and be quiet. The United States should just take tariffs and other uncompetitive trade policies from Canada and Germany etc. and be quiet. I have yet to actually see an argument that the trade policies Trump complains about aren't unfair, instead it is just outrage that he would even dare express displeasure with them. The double standard is quite impressive. The simple fact is that weak countries (in relation to the United States) have been acting for decades in certain areas of relations like they are strong countries. Their entitled leaders have reacted quite hysterically to the government of the United States, the stronger country, being unwilling unwilling at the moment to let that continue, and showing willingness to use its superior strength to change the situation. I certainly understand their position, they've had a very good deal from the United States, generally speaking, since the war. If I were them I wouldn't want things to change. But they are making a rather large miscalculation if they think their current course will succeed. Consider the example of the dairy tariffs that Trump was complaining about earlier. The US dairy industry is having a fucking bad time at the moment. Supply has exceeded demand for a few years now so prices have fallen hard. But large farms can't easily scale back production, per unit costs to the farm are low, it's the overhead that fucks them, so they can't just produce 50% less milk for 50% of the expenses. Instead they're actually selling milk to wholesalers at a loss. The farmers are getting up, working 12 hours of hard labour, and going to bed poorer than they were when they woke up. They're just hoping that one day market conditions may improve, but it's been a few years now and it's gotten so bad that US dairy farmers get suicide prevention advice with their paychecks. https://www.npr.org/2018/02/27/586586267/as-milk-prices-decline-worries-about-dairy-farmer-suicides-riseWhile the American response to the problem is "let farmers kill themselves until the supply inevitably drops to meet demand #freemarket" the Canadians responded by centrally setting milk prices wholesale prices at an artificially high level so that the average Canadian consumer is effectively subsidizing Canadian dairy farmers. This can only work if everyone plays by the same rules though. The tariff that Trump is complaining about is the one that prevents US milk from undercutting the price that Canadian dairy farmers get. They're not refusing to change because they hate America and are taking advantage. They're refusing to change because they don't want any of your suicide milk. Canada realizing that it’s really hard to bake anything worth eating without butter, cream or milk and stabilizating that industry. America lets it fail and the elects a guy who blames Canada for America’s milk problem. Populism in a nutshell, blame the people who figured out how to fix the problem. And make sure those people are not voters.
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