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On October 30 2020 22:51 Mohdoo wrote:
One thing that is haunting me: why are people ignoring Trafalgar, saying everyone else is right, when they are the ones who were correct about 2016, whereas others were wrong? It feels like they have credibility, but everyone is saying they do not.
There are quite a few soi-disant "savvy" Trumpers who believe that Trump will win resoundingly on election night.
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On October 30 2020 22:51 Mohdoo wrote:
One thing that is haunting me: why are people ignoring Trafalgar, saying everyone else is right, when they are the ones who were correct about 2016, whereas others were wrong? It feels like they have credibility, but everyone is saying they do not.
Broken clock is right twice a day. Their polling coincided with one upset and people act like they're the undisputed election prophets, but their popular vote polling expected Trump winning I think (Hillary won by 2%). That doesn't mean they were necessarily accurate. Pollsters noticed some very fishy data in Trafalgar's recent batch of data like Trump winning 30% of Democrats in Michigan, to the point where Trafalgar rescinded it.
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On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too.
What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility?
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On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too.
Much of the wish list for dems is not economic. There are only three items that are.
Here's one that might satisfy fiscal conservatives :
1. Repeal of the tax cuts for those earning over 500k that Trump pushed through with no plan to pay for them.
The other two
2. Health care reform - we don't know what will happen here. In the long run most of the proposed reforms should save money overall by reducing the insane inflation of health care costs for the average person, though they'll cost more for the government (our GDP:health care cost ratio is nutso)
3. Green new deal - this is basically investment in green energy to match our investment in non-renewables energy and will be the hardest for a fiscal conservative to accept, but has broad popular support (60% last poll I saw).
Now, a COVID stimulus will probably happen but that's a bipartisan issue: If the stock market tumbles again, the GOP will be ramming through another 2 trillion bill. Their skinny plan disproportionately benefits large corporations. Democrats wanted things like mortgage and rent protection in addition to those benefits.
No idea what actually happens here : dem house moderates were showing signs of wavering before Trump and McConnell broke down negotiations.
The other big issues are basically reforms with little to no economic implications. There are already hundreds of bills just sitting behind McConnell's desk.
1. Statehood for DC and probably PR (the hurricane there demonstrates why they need to be one : they're more populous than our smaller ones and if they aren't, the federal government can, will, and has literally ignored them in times of emergency)
2. Filibuster reform or nuke
3. Election security from foreign interference
4. Anti-corruption measures
5. Oversight for DoJ (this may wind up being bi-partisan, given the weird conspiracies about Comey and Wray)
Also, Trump is saying the quiet part out loud again: that the only way he doesn't win re-election is if the SC doesn't interfere for him.
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I don't know what will be more bewildering for me, the disappointment from people who genuinely think Biden will get things done or the self-abasing rationalization for why whatever he does accomplish (likely things like austerity) is the best we could have hoped for.
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On October 30 2020 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
I don't know what will be more bewildering for me, the disappointment from people who genuinely think Biden will get things done or the self-abasing rationalization for why whatever he does accomplish (likely things like austerity) is the best we could have hoped for.
lol show me who else you see on the ballot right now
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On October 30 2020 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
I don't know what will be more bewildering for me, the disappointment from people who genuinely think Biden will get things done or the self-abasing rationalization for why whatever he does accomplish (likely things like austerity) is the best we could have hoped for.
One of the best things he could accomplish is to bring unity to a dividend nation. He is so squarely in the political centre he could possibly have ran as a moderate Republican, at least pre 2000.
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Bisutopia19345 Posts
On October 30 2020 23:14 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility?
Economic Stability in regards to the slowing the dramatic rate at which places are going out of business, shrinking joblessness, etc. Basically, all the signals that we have a healthy economy like in a pre-covid world.
On October 30 2020 23:18 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. Much of the wish list for dems is not economic. There are only three items that are. Here's one that might satisfy fiscal conservatives : 1. Repeal of the tax cuts for those earning over 500k that Trump pushed through with no plan to pay for them.
I'd rather they remove loopholes from the tax system so you pay the percentage mandated. Wouldn't that make more money then raising the taxes on the wealthy (unless it's brought to an absurd amount)? No tax breaks unless it went to legitimate charities.
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On October 30 2020 23:47 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:14 IgnE wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility? Economic Stability in regards to the slowing the dramatic rate at which places are going out of business, shrinking joblessness, etc. Basically, all the signals that we have a healthy economy like in a pre-covid world.
A fiscal conservative wants to shrink joblessness? Are you sure you are using the right term? There's something odd about a "fiscal conservative" claiming that stability is all upside without the downside.
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On October 30 2020 23:47 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:14 IgnE wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility? Economic Stability in regards to the slowing the dramatic rate at which places are going out of business, shrinking joblessness, etc. Basically, all the signals that we have a healthy economy like in a pre-covid world. Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:18 Nevuk wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. Much of the wish list for dems is not economic. There are only three items that are. Here's one that might satisfy fiscal conservatives : 1. Repeal of the tax cuts for those earning over 500k that Trump pushed through with no plan to pay for them. I'd rather they remove loopholes from the tax system so you pay the percentage mandated. Wouldn't that make more money then raising the taxes on the wealthy (unless it's brought to an absurd amount)? No tax breaks unless it went to legitimate charities.
Well, they will probably try to do both, but no, not really. I think Kwark or someone in finances can verify this for sure.
There's the "minimum" rate that is the absolute lowest amount you can pay already, isn't there?
A lot of 'loopholes' abused by the ultra rich and rich aren't really loopholes so much as just "not enforced by the IRS right now". That's what happened with Trump, for instance.
Capital gains taxes are another area where they're just really low, nothing to do with loopholes, and those are disproportionately used by the super rich.
Corporate taxes are an area where loopholes are an issue (vis a viz Amazon), but the individual tax rate I don't think is one.
(PS: What's your definition of ridiculous? If we went back to 1950s rules then there would be 90% income tax rates on millionaires)
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On October 30 2020 23:35 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
I don't know what will be more bewildering for me, the disappointment from people who genuinely think Biden will get things done or the self-abasing rationalization for why whatever he does accomplish (likely things like austerity) is the best we could have hoped for. lol show me who else you see on the ballot right now
I fully expect any progress we make in the next decades to come in spite of the major party candidates on our ballots.
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Bisutopia19345 Posts
On October 30 2020 23:56 IgnE wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:47 BisuDagger wrote:On October 30 2020 23:14 IgnE wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility? Economic Stability in regards to the slowing the dramatic rate at which places are going out of business, shrinking joblessness, etc. Basically, all the signals that we have a healthy economy like in a pre-covid world. A fiscal conservative wants to shrink joblessness? Are you sure you are using the right term? There's something odd about a "fiscal conservative" claiming that stability is all upside without the downside.
Fiscal Conservative applied to me = minimizing federal spending to only what is necessary. It doesn't make me heartless. I'm just not convinced the federal government can run programs on a reasonable budget for anything. Look at the military for example. Because I use the term conservative you probably think I'm pro-military spending to, but I'm not. I want a strong military, but our budget certainly shouldn't go up. I built maintenance simulators on aircraft for them for many years. Subject Matter Experts (ex-military solders) would talk about throwing away pieces of equipment on an apache and black hawk helicopters that'd cost $15-$20k just because it was it was easier to replace the part then use an oscilloscope to find out what the real problem is. Or just take a look at the F-22 project.
I'm not against local taxes to help my city with jobs, security, roads, etc. I generally support them except the absurd half-cent sales tax for education on our current ballet that would have run for 30 years lol.
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On October 30 2020 15:42 Sr18 wrote:
Doesn't high inflation decrease wealth inequality, rather than increase it?
Consumer inflation remains quite low; most inflation right now is in assets owned primarily by the wealthy. That leads to pretty much the exact opposite effect.
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Bisutopia19345 Posts
On October 30 2020 23:58 Nevuk wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:47 BisuDagger wrote:On October 30 2020 23:14 IgnE wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility? Economic Stability in regards to the slowing the dramatic rate at which places are going out of business, shrinking joblessness, etc. Basically, all the signals that we have a healthy economy like in a pre-covid world. On October 30 2020 23:18 Nevuk wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. Much of the wish list for dems is not economic. There are only three items that are. Here's one that might satisfy fiscal conservatives : 1. Repeal of the tax cuts for those earning over 500k that Trump pushed through with no plan to pay for them. I'd rather they remove loopholes from the tax system so you pay the percentage mandated. Wouldn't that make more money then raising the taxes on the wealthy (unless it's brought to an absurd amount)? No tax breaks unless it went to legitimate charities. Well, they will probably try to do both, but no, not really. I think Kwark or someone in finances can verify this for sure. There's the "minimum" rate that is the absolute lowest amount you can pay already, isn't there? A lot of 'loopholes' abused by the ultra rich and rich aren't really loopholes so much as just "not enforced by the IRS right now". That's what happened with Trump, for instance. Capital gains taxes are another area where they're just really low, nothing to do with loopholes, and those are disproportionately used by the super rich. Corporate taxes are an area where loopholes are an issue (vis a viz Amazon), but the individual tax rate I don't think is one. (PS: What's your definition of ridiculous? If we went back to 1950s rules then there would be 90% income tax rates on millionaires)
I'd like to just post "Tax is theft" and not say more lol. More personally, I have hard feelings about income tax and death taxes. I think money earned should go to your pocket. I'm not so extreme as to say 0% tax for everyone, I understand why it exists. I am just willing to entertain other solutions besides a 90% tax on the top percent. I know this comes with more government control, but I'm more interested in discussions that help regulate the percentage of money earned going to a CEO versus their employees. We could come up with solutions that aren't "you cannot make x amount as a CEO". Instead maybe an internal tax that forces the CEO to pay a percentage of his earned income back into his own company. So even if he doesn't get to retain the wealth for himself, he gets to choose how to reinvest it back into the company. Also, to be clear, I am not arguing against corporate taxes, just taxes on income.With my theoretical suggestion, wouldn't that put more money in the corporate tax area for the government to collect anyway?
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limiting compensation to ~20-1 of the lowest payed/average/median employee seems like a good way to start knocking the problem down without any taxes. If you want to make more as a CEO, you just have to pay your employees (the ones generating the revenue) more.
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Bisutopia19345 Posts
On October 31 2020 00:23 GreenHorizons wrote:
limiting compensation to ~20-1 of the lowest payed/average/median employee seems like a good way to start knocking the problem down without any taxes. If you want to make more as a CEO, you just have to pay your employees (the ones generating the revenue) more.
That or maybe even tiered like a pyramid. That way we don't have a strict one size fits all solution.
Ratios below were made up to represent the thought, but not indicate reasonable values.
5:1 Top level
3:1 - Level 4
3:1 - Level 3
2:1 - Level 2
2:1 - Lowest level
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The smart ones just pay themselves in stock grants / options anyways, with a fairly small salary.
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CEO pay rates going through the roof are a combination of a few strange forces.
CEO pay going public resulted in all CEO pay skyrocketing. This was because they could each see what others were making and negotiate from there.
The other factor is that they aren't being paid in money (or at least, the majority of their earnings aren't coming from cash). The absolutely nutty parts of their salaries and golden parachutes are being paid via company stock and stock benefits. That was considered "free" money by the EMB of companies, because it doesn't cost the company anything : it just costs their investors.
On October 31 2020 00:19 BisuDagger wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:58 Nevuk wrote:On October 30 2020 23:47 BisuDagger wrote:On October 30 2020 23:14 IgnE wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. What's economic stability? 0% growth rate? No volatility? Economic Stability in regards to the slowing the dramatic rate at which places are going out of business, shrinking joblessness, etc. Basically, all the signals that we have a healthy economy like in a pre-covid world. On October 30 2020 23:18 Nevuk wrote:On October 30 2020 22:50 BisuDagger wrote:
For those of you democrats hoping for a massive blue wave election and 4 years of have your cake and eat it too, what are you hoping to get out of the next term? What would make you say "Solid 4 years Biden. Well done!"? It's the answer to this question that honestly scares me the most as a fiscal conservative.
For me:
All I care about is economic stability, covid recovery, and staying out of international conflicts for the next four years. I'm worried that a blue wave will just like "hey we got this opportunity, let's push as many left agendas as possible." I get that it's an opportunity to accomplish an agenda, but I think regardless of party, it's a spit in the face to pass a bunch of things that don't have partisan support. I have huge problems with republicans trying to push agendas that sub 50% of America might support too. Much of the wish list for dems is not economic. There are only three items that are. Here's one that might satisfy fiscal conservatives : 1. Repeal of the tax cuts for those earning over 500k that Trump pushed through with no plan to pay for them. I'd rather they remove loopholes from the tax system so you pay the percentage mandated. Wouldn't that make more money then raising the taxes on the wealthy (unless it's brought to an absurd amount)? No tax breaks unless it went to legitimate charities. Well, they will probably try to do both, but no, not really. I think Kwark or someone in finances can verify this for sure. There's the "minimum" rate that is the absolute lowest amount you can pay already, isn't there? A lot of 'loopholes' abused by the ultra rich and rich aren't really loopholes so much as just "not enforced by the IRS right now". That's what happened with Trump, for instance. Capital gains taxes are another area where they're just really low, nothing to do with loopholes, and those are disproportionately used by the super rich. Corporate taxes are an area where loopholes are an issue (vis a viz Amazon), but the individual tax rate I don't think is one. (PS: What's your definition of ridiculous? If we went back to 1950s rules then there would be 90% income tax rates on millionaires) I'd like to just post "Tax is theft" and not say more lol. More personally, I have hard feelings about income tax and death taxes. I think money earned should go to your pocket. I'm not so extreme as to say 0% tax for everyone, I understand why it exists. I am just willing to entertain other solutions besides a 90% tax on the top percent. I know this comes with more government control, but I'm more interested in discussions that help regulate the percentage of money earned going to a CEO versus their employees. We could come up with solutions that aren't "you cannot make x amount as a CEO". Instead maybe an internal tax that forces the CEO to pay a percentage of his earned income back into his own company. So even if he doesn't get to retain the wealth for himself, he gets to choose how to reinvest it back into the company. Also, to be clear, I am not arguing against corporate taxes, just taxes on income.With my theoretical suggestion, wouldn't that put more money in the corporate tax area for the government to collect anyway?
I think <500 people per year in the US even pay estate taxes. I'm not sure why anyone at all cares about the issue, given that it only applies to 10$ million or more estates.
What's your position on capital gains taxes? Those are the taxes on passive income - ie, invest in this stock, it goes up 500%, you sell that stock. Do you think that should be taxed?
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On October 31 2020 00:36 LegalLord wrote:
The smart ones just pay themselves in stock grants / options anyways, with a fairly small salary.
This is 100% true.
I work for a very large financial firm (privately held) and once you get to a certain level you're allowed to buy stock in the company. That stock has dividends of around 500k a year per share. So my CTO will have a salary that maybe is 5x mine but they bring home a LOT more than I do
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On October 30 2020 23:41 Slydie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2020 23:21 GreenHorizons wrote:
I don't know what will be more bewildering for me, the disappointment from people who genuinely think Biden will get things done or the self-abasing rationalization for why whatever he does accomplish (likely things like austerity) is the best we could have hoped for. One of the best things he could accomplish is to bring unity to a dividend nation. He is so squarely in the political centre he could possibly have ran as a moderate Republican, at least pre 2000.
Not quite sure about that. I don't think any Republican ever had a 2 trillion dollar plan for the environment, and that's just one item.
538 had an article showing that Biden had always been at the exact centre of the democratic party, and moved right and left with it. He has always voted more liberal than 45% of his democratic colleagues and more conservative than the other 45%. When the party drifted more to the right or to the let, he followed.
The dems are more left leaning in general than they have been since the early 1990's. There is little reason to think Biden doesn't sit as usual at the centre of its party and his platform is actually rather progressive.
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EPT
