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My take away so far:
There is 1 viable progressive candidate and 2 viable centrists, ignoring Bloomberg. Warren really does not seem to have a path here. She needed to beat Bernie in Iowa and NH to show she was the alpha progressive. She isn't. Bernie is shitting on her so far and looks like he will do the same in NH.
Biden getting absolutely spanked calls into question his supposed dominance. A lot can change, but I don't expect Buttigieg will overtake Biden before SC. If Buttigieg really does just completely consume Biden, rapidly, that is a huge issue. But I think Biden has a tight enough grip on the establishment that he would at the very least be able to delay Buttigieg's consumption long enough to where he misses his window. Buttigieg would have to convince a lot of people scary Bernie is coming for their money, quickly, in order to consume his support.
The good news is that Buttigieg is doing terribly in NH and they vote next week. So if the enlightened centrists get confused and then go back to Biden after NH, Biden is pretty much guaranteed to have suppressed Buttigieg's little spat.
As a firm "eat the rich and destroy their property" voter, my only real concern right now is Buttigieg pulling the rug out from under Biden. I think Buttigieg has a real shot at taking down Bernie if he is able to rapidly consume Biden's entire base. But I really just don't see that happening. Buttigieg would need to get 2nd in NH to have a chance at stealing SC from Biden and I just don't see him managing that. It would be incredible. However, it is worth noting that Buttigieg really is doing it so far, just that it still isn't likely, at all.
Buttigieg simply isn't viable with 7% national. Buttigieg and Biden being the Kasich and Cruz of 2020 sounds great to me.
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On February 05 2020 07:48 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 07:37 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 05 2020 07:30 Zaros wrote:The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight + Show Spoiler + This is what happens when Democrats complain about rural precincts having outsized influence but build it into their own primary based on what? Do results from rural precincts count double or something? A 3% difference sounds perfectly natural because there are only 56 delegates, a perfectly identical split between the result (2nd column) and delegates is nigh impossible.
Not double but rural votes account for a notably larger share of delegates than the population centers. Kornacki put the math at about 10% of the vote and ~14% of the delegates.
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On February 05 2020 08:04 Mohdoo wrote:
My take away so far:
There is 1 viable progressive candidate and 2 viable centrists, ignoring Bloomberg. Warren really does not seem to have a path here. She needed to beat Bernie in Iowa and NH to show she was the alpha progressive. She isn't. Bernie is shitting on her so far and looks like he will do the same in NH.
Biden getting absolutely spanked calls into question his supposed dominance. A lot can change, but I don't expect Buttigieg will overtake Biden before SC. If Buttigieg really does just completely consume Biden, rapidly, that is a huge issue. But I think Biden has a tight enough grip on the establishment that he would at the very least be able to delay Buttigieg's consumption long enough to where he misses his window. Buttigieg would have to convince a lot of people scary Bernie is coming for their money, quickly, in order to consume his support.
The good news is that Buttigieg is doing terribly in NH and they vote next week. So if the enlightened centrists get confused and then go back to Biden after NH, Biden is pretty much guaranteed to have suppressed Buttigieg's little spat.
As a firm "eat the rich and destroy their property" voter, my only real concern right now is Buttigieg pulling the rug out from under Biden. I think Buttigieg has a real shot at taking down Bernie if he is able to rapidly consume Biden's entire base. But I really just don't see that happening. Buttigieg would need to get 2nd in NH to have a chance at stealing SC from Biden and I just don't see him managing that. It would be incredible. However, it is worth noting that Buttigieg really is doing it so far, just that it still isn't likely, at all.
Buttigieg simply isn't viable with 7% national. Buttigieg and Biden being the Kasich and Cruz of 2020 sounds great to me.
Buttigieg has much more money than Biden and has been neck and neck with Biden for 2nd place in the polls i have seen for New Hampshire with Sanders way ahead. Biden might be struggling to fund his campaign from here on with this really bad result. Then he gets beat again by Buttigieg in New Hampshire it won't look good.
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On February 05 2020 08:08 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:04 Mohdoo wrote:
My take away so far:
There is 1 viable progressive candidate and 2 viable centrists, ignoring Bloomberg. Warren really does not seem to have a path here. She needed to beat Bernie in Iowa and NH to show she was the alpha progressive. She isn't. Bernie is shitting on her so far and looks like he will do the same in NH.
Biden getting absolutely spanked calls into question his supposed dominance. A lot can change, but I don't expect Buttigieg will overtake Biden before SC. If Buttigieg really does just completely consume Biden, rapidly, that is a huge issue. But I think Biden has a tight enough grip on the establishment that he would at the very least be able to delay Buttigieg's consumption long enough to where he misses his window. Buttigieg would have to convince a lot of people scary Bernie is coming for their money, quickly, in order to consume his support.
The good news is that Buttigieg is doing terribly in NH and they vote next week. So if the enlightened centrists get confused and then go back to Biden after NH, Biden is pretty much guaranteed to have suppressed Buttigieg's little spat.
As a firm "eat the rich and destroy their property" voter, my only real concern right now is Buttigieg pulling the rug out from under Biden. I think Buttigieg has a real shot at taking down Bernie if he is able to rapidly consume Biden's entire base. But I really just don't see that happening. Buttigieg would need to get 2nd in NH to have a chance at stealing SC from Biden and I just don't see him managing that. It would be incredible. However, it is worth noting that Buttigieg really is doing it so far, just that it still isn't likely, at all.
Buttigieg simply isn't viable with 7% national. Buttigieg and Biden being the Kasich and Cruz of 2020 sounds great to me. Buttigieg has much more money than Biden and has been neck and neck with Biden for 2nd place in the polls i have seen for New Hampshire with Sanders way ahead. Biden might be struggling to fund his campaign from here on with this really bad result. Then he gets beat again by Buttigieg in New Hampshire it won't look good.
Buttigieg fizzles out after that though, while Biden has a commanding lead over almost-all-things-South. Buttigieg is polling well in the first two states because they're over 90% white.
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On February 05 2020 08:11 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:08 Zaros wrote:On February 05 2020 08:04 Mohdoo wrote:
My take away so far:
There is 1 viable progressive candidate and 2 viable centrists, ignoring Bloomberg. Warren really does not seem to have a path here. She needed to beat Bernie in Iowa and NH to show she was the alpha progressive. She isn't. Bernie is shitting on her so far and looks like he will do the same in NH.
Biden getting absolutely spanked calls into question his supposed dominance. A lot can change, but I don't expect Buttigieg will overtake Biden before SC. If Buttigieg really does just completely consume Biden, rapidly, that is a huge issue. But I think Biden has a tight enough grip on the establishment that he would at the very least be able to delay Buttigieg's consumption long enough to where he misses his window. Buttigieg would have to convince a lot of people scary Bernie is coming for their money, quickly, in order to consume his support.
The good news is that Buttigieg is doing terribly in NH and they vote next week. So if the enlightened centrists get confused and then go back to Biden after NH, Biden is pretty much guaranteed to have suppressed Buttigieg's little spat.
As a firm "eat the rich and destroy their property" voter, my only real concern right now is Buttigieg pulling the rug out from under Biden. I think Buttigieg has a real shot at taking down Bernie if he is able to rapidly consume Biden's entire base. But I really just don't see that happening. Buttigieg would need to get 2nd in NH to have a chance at stealing SC from Biden and I just don't see him managing that. It would be incredible. However, it is worth noting that Buttigieg really is doing it so far, just that it still isn't likely, at all.
Buttigieg simply isn't viable with 7% national. Buttigieg and Biden being the Kasich and Cruz of 2020 sounds great to me. Buttigieg has much more money than Biden and has been neck and neck with Biden for 2nd place in the polls i have seen for New Hampshire with Sanders way ahead. Biden might be struggling to fund his campaign from here on with this really bad result. Then he gets beat again by Buttigieg in New Hampshire it won't look good. Buttigieg fizzles out after that though, while Biden has a commanding lead over almost-all-things-South. Buttigieg is polling well in the first two states because they're over 90% white.
He might not fizzle out though if people like Steyer and Klobarchar drop out and he eats into Biden, Bloomberg, Suddenly he moves up to nearer 20+% nationally.
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On February 05 2020 08:11 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:08 Zaros wrote:On February 05 2020 08:04 Mohdoo wrote:
My take away so far:
There is 1 viable progressive candidate and 2 viable centrists, ignoring Bloomberg. Warren really does not seem to have a path here. She needed to beat Bernie in Iowa and NH to show she was the alpha progressive. She isn't. Bernie is shitting on her so far and looks like he will do the same in NH.
Biden getting absolutely spanked calls into question his supposed dominance. A lot can change, but I don't expect Buttigieg will overtake Biden before SC. If Buttigieg really does just completely consume Biden, rapidly, that is a huge issue. But I think Biden has a tight enough grip on the establishment that he would at the very least be able to delay Buttigieg's consumption long enough to where he misses his window. Buttigieg would have to convince a lot of people scary Bernie is coming for their money, quickly, in order to consume his support.
The good news is that Buttigieg is doing terribly in NH and they vote next week. So if the enlightened centrists get confused and then go back to Biden after NH, Biden is pretty much guaranteed to have suppressed Buttigieg's little spat.
As a firm "eat the rich and destroy their property" voter, my only real concern right now is Buttigieg pulling the rug out from under Biden. I think Buttigieg has a real shot at taking down Bernie if he is able to rapidly consume Biden's entire base. But I really just don't see that happening. Buttigieg would need to get 2nd in NH to have a chance at stealing SC from Biden and I just don't see him managing that. It would be incredible. However, it is worth noting that Buttigieg really is doing it so far, just that it still isn't likely, at all.
Buttigieg simply isn't viable with 7% national. Buttigieg and Biden being the Kasich and Cruz of 2020 sounds great to me. Buttigieg has much more money than Biden and has been neck and neck with Biden for 2nd place in the polls i have seen for New Hampshire with Sanders way ahead. Biden might be struggling to fund his campaign from here on with this really bad result. Then he gets beat again by Buttigieg in New Hampshire it won't look good. Buttigieg fizzles out after that though, while Biden has a commanding lead over almost-all-things-South. Buttigieg is polling well in the first two states because they're over 90% white.
He also got called out for using at least one of the Black women behind him in his 'victory' speech as a prop and firing a decorated Black police chief for exposing the racism in the department and replaced him with a cop involved in a 'controversial' homicide.
So not making much progress with Black voters.
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On February 05 2020 08:06 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 07:48 Gorsameth wrote:On February 05 2020 07:37 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 05 2020 07:30 Zaros wrote:The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight + Show Spoiler + This is what happens when Democrats complain about rural precincts having outsized influence but build it into their own primary based on what? Do results from rural precincts count double or something? A 3% difference sounds perfectly natural because there are only 56 delegates, a perfectly identical split between the result (2nd column) and delegates is nigh impossible. Not double but rural votes account for a notably larger share of delegates than the population centers. Kornacki put the math at about 10% of the vote and ~14% of the delegates. Alright yeah thats silly. Should just combine all the % from all precincts and give up the 56 delegates based on that.
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On February 05 2020 08:13 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:11 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 05 2020 08:08 Zaros wrote:On February 05 2020 08:04 Mohdoo wrote:
My take away so far:
There is 1 viable progressive candidate and 2 viable centrists, ignoring Bloomberg. Warren really does not seem to have a path here. She needed to beat Bernie in Iowa and NH to show she was the alpha progressive. She isn't. Bernie is shitting on her so far and looks like he will do the same in NH.
Biden getting absolutely spanked calls into question his supposed dominance. A lot can change, but I don't expect Buttigieg will overtake Biden before SC. If Buttigieg really does just completely consume Biden, rapidly, that is a huge issue. But I think Biden has a tight enough grip on the establishment that he would at the very least be able to delay Buttigieg's consumption long enough to where he misses his window. Buttigieg would have to convince a lot of people scary Bernie is coming for their money, quickly, in order to consume his support.
The good news is that Buttigieg is doing terribly in NH and they vote next week. So if the enlightened centrists get confused and then go back to Biden after NH, Biden is pretty much guaranteed to have suppressed Buttigieg's little spat.
As a firm "eat the rich and destroy their property" voter, my only real concern right now is Buttigieg pulling the rug out from under Biden. I think Buttigieg has a real shot at taking down Bernie if he is able to rapidly consume Biden's entire base. But I really just don't see that happening. Buttigieg would need to get 2nd in NH to have a chance at stealing SC from Biden and I just don't see him managing that. It would be incredible. However, it is worth noting that Buttigieg really is doing it so far, just that it still isn't likely, at all.
Buttigieg simply isn't viable with 7% national. Buttigieg and Biden being the Kasich and Cruz of 2020 sounds great to me. Buttigieg has much more money than Biden and has been neck and neck with Biden for 2nd place in the polls i have seen for New Hampshire with Sanders way ahead. Biden might be struggling to fund his campaign from here on with this really bad result. Then he gets beat again by Buttigieg in New Hampshire it won't look good. Buttigieg fizzles out after that though, while Biden has a commanding lead over almost-all-things-South. Buttigieg is polling well in the first two states because they're over 90% white. He might not fizzle out though if people like Steyer and Klobarchar drop out and he eats into Biden, Bloomberg, Suddenly he moves up to nearer 20+% nationally.
He's polling at 6.5%; I don't see his popularity tripling in 2-5 weeks, especially when he'll only get a boost from Iowa and NH at best. But I guess we'll see.
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There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol
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Buttigieg has a rough road ahead where he needs to consume Biden's base, but does have a path. He does well everywhere he campaigns. He went hard in Iowa and will win or come a very close second to Sanders. He'll hit NH hard now and try to sway people last minute to get a solid 2nd. That could be enough to put some major cracks in Biden's base and get the "centrist" vote to switch over. Lot's of people want to back the winner and Biden was the de facto winner up to this point, if that narrative is gone, a lot of people could switch.
Buttigieg is my preferred candidate because he's the only guy I trust to stand on the stage against Trump and dominate the conversation. He's very quick on his feet and can pull out good one liners to sway the idiot masses. He also has reasonable policies that are the next step to progressive policies.
The anti-Trump crowd includes people who want radical change and also people who just want to go back to normal. Buttigieg captures the back to normal crowd while still taking steps towards progressivism. Sanders scares the "back to normal" crowd and I worry that he will lose to Trump. The Republicans sure seem to want to face Sanders. It could be their poison, just like the Dems in 2016 wanted to face Trump, but that seems to be the Republican's preferred opponent right now. I think they'll be able to destroy him in enough places that we get another 4 years of Trump.
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Reuters says Buttigieg is leading the popular vote
There is a miraculous zone of irreplaceable incompetence that neoliberal narratives seem to live in.
EDIT: Guess they deleted the tweet after it was up for an hour
Here's the screenshot:+ Show Spoiler +
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On February 05 2020 08:42 RenSC2 wrote:
Buttigieg has a rough road ahead where he needs to consume Biden's base, but does have a path. He does well everywhere he campaigns. He went hard in Iowa and will win or come a very close second to Sanders. He'll hit NH hard now and try to sway people last minute to get a solid 2nd. That could be enough to put some major cracks in Biden's base and get the "centrist" vote to switch over. Lot's of people want to back the winner and Biden was the de facto winner up to this point, if that narrative is gone, a lot of people could switch.
Buttigieg is my preferred candidate because he's the only guy I trust to stand on the stage against Trump and dominate the conversation. He's very quick on his feet and can pull out good one liners to sway the idiot masses. He also has reasonable policies that are the next step to progressive policies.
The anti-Trump crowd includes people who want radical change and also people who just want to go back to normal. Buttigieg captures the back to normal crowd while still taking steps towards progressivism. Sanders scares the "back to normal" crowd and I worry that he will lose to Trump. The Republicans sure seem to want to face Sanders. It could be their poison, just like the Dems in 2016 wanted to face Trump, but that seems to be the Republican's preferred opponent right now. I think they'll be able to destroy him in enough places that we get another 4 years of Trump.
Devil's advocate: This group of people who might vote for trump and might vote for a democrat simply isn't real. They don't exist. Ok, there are more than 0. But the olden day definition of moderate independents simply isn't the case any more. The party's don't have a slightly similar vision for the country. Trump's America has allies and enemies, nothing in between.
Edit: Romney? Obama? A lot less clear. Obama? McCain? Also a lot less clear. Even Bloomberg vs Trump is incomparably more different than 2008 or 2012.
Compare 2008, 2012 and 2020. The most similar candidates to Trump don't look anything remotely similar.
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On February 05 2020 08:47 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:42 RenSC2 wrote:
Buttigieg has a rough road ahead where he needs to consume Biden's base, but does have a path. He does well everywhere he campaigns. He went hard in Iowa and will win or come a very close second to Sanders. He'll hit NH hard now and try to sway people last minute to get a solid 2nd. That could be enough to put some major cracks in Biden's base and get the "centrist" vote to switch over. Lot's of people want to back the winner and Biden was the de facto winner up to this point, if that narrative is gone, a lot of people could switch.
Buttigieg is my preferred candidate because he's the only guy I trust to stand on the stage against Trump and dominate the conversation. He's very quick on his feet and can pull out good one liners to sway the idiot masses. He also has reasonable policies that are the next step to progressive policies.
The anti-Trump crowd includes people who want radical change and also people who just want to go back to normal. Buttigieg captures the back to normal crowd while still taking steps towards progressivism. Sanders scares the "back to normal" crowd and I worry that he will lose to Trump. The Republicans sure seem to want to face Sanders. It could be their poison, just like the Dems in 2016 wanted to face Trump, but that seems to be the Republican's preferred opponent right now. I think they'll be able to destroy him in enough places that we get another 4 years of Trump. Devil's advocate: This group of people who might vote for trump and might vote for a democrat simply isn't real. They don't exist. Ok, there are more than 0. But the olden day definition of moderate independents simply isn't the case any more. The party's don't have a slightly similar vision for the country. Trump's America has allies and enemies, nothing in betwee
Hell, even the allies are transient
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On February 05 2020 08:31 Mohdoo wrote:
There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol
What do you mean? She's still in a solid third place, nationally... significantly behind Biden and Sanders, yet significantly ahead of Buttigieg and the rest of them.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/GsSHh7i.png)
She's probably going to consistently come in 2nd/3rd in many states, while Biden swings wildly up and down between different states.
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On February 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:31 Mohdoo wrote:
There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol What do you mean? She's still in a solid third place, nationally... significantly behind Biden and Sanders, yet significantly ahead of Buttigieg and the rest of them. She's probably going to consistently come in 2nd/3rd in many states, while Biden swings wildly up and down between different states.
We have the same impression. But how much does a consistent 2nd and 3rd really get her? Especially as people jump ship.
Also, my current favorite campaign slogan right now is "CORNFIELDS FOR PETE 2020". The 62% reported is basically entirely rural areas. Just so happens the areas not yet counted are industrialized. How weird!
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On February 05 2020 09:03 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 05 2020 08:31 Mohdoo wrote:
There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol What do you mean? She's still in a solid third place, nationally... significantly behind Biden and Sanders, yet significantly ahead of Buttigieg and the rest of them. She's probably going to consistently come in 2nd/3rd in many states, while Biden swings wildly up and down between different states. We have the same impression. But how much does a consistent 2nd and 3rd really get her? Especially as people jump ship. Also, my current favorite campaign slogan right now is "CORNFIELDS FOR PETE 2020". The 62% reported is basically entirely rural areas. Just so happens the areas not yet counted are industrialized. How weird!
thats rubbish, all the analysis ive seen is the 60% is broadly representative of the whole and it will be very close fight for both the vote % and delegates between sanders and buttigieg with neither having a big advantage by the amount of rural/urban areas left. The result could end with Sanders or Buttigieg winning both measures or one each.
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On February 05 2020 09:03 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 05 2020 08:31 Mohdoo wrote:
There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol What do you mean? She's still in a solid third place, nationally... significantly behind Biden and Sanders, yet significantly ahead of Buttigieg and the rest of them. She's probably going to consistently come in 2nd/3rd in many states, while Biden swings wildly up and down between different states. We have the same impression. But how much does a consistent 2nd and 3rd really get her? Especially as people jump ship. Also, my current favorite campaign slogan right now is "CORNFIELDS FOR PETE 2020". The 62% reported is basically entirely rural areas. Just so happens the areas not yet counted are industrialized. How weird!
Oh, true; I don't know if she's polling in first place in any state, actually. Sometimes, consistently good placements can be better than very volatile fluctuations between great and bad, but it's very clear to me that Sanders should be outperforming her consistently, so at best I think she could get 3rd place... mayyybe 2nd if something weird happens to both Biden and Buttigieg.
I'm definitely looking forward to the final Iowa tally too!
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On February 05 2020 09:07 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 09:03 Mohdoo wrote:On February 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 05 2020 08:31 Mohdoo wrote:
There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol What do you mean? She's still in a solid third place, nationally... significantly behind Biden and Sanders, yet significantly ahead of Buttigieg and the rest of them. She's probably going to consistently come in 2nd/3rd in many states, while Biden swings wildly up and down between different states. We have the same impression. But how much does a consistent 2nd and 3rd really get her? Especially as people jump ship. Also, my current favorite campaign slogan right now is "CORNFIELDS FOR PETE 2020". The 62% reported is basically entirely rural areas. Just so happens the areas not yet counted are industrialized. How weird! thats rubbish, all the analysis ive seen is the 60% is broadly representative of the whole and it will be very close fight for both the vote % and delegates between sanders and buttigieg with neither having a big advantage by the amount of rural/urban areas left. The result could end with Sanders or Buttigieg winning both measures or one each.
Check the NYT map. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus-precinct-map.html
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1ui3tCfxkuQ&feature=youtu.be
*Very* thorough, detailed reporting on the app, it’s makers, and the context around it. It’s a little long, but their digressions are for contextual purposes
Edit: Sorry I don’t wanna spend time making it look all pretty as a thumbnail
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On February 05 2020 09:09 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2020 09:07 Zaros wrote:On February 05 2020 09:03 Mohdoo wrote:On February 05 2020 08:57 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 05 2020 08:31 Mohdoo wrote:
There will be at most 8 Black voters supporting Buttigieg in SC. Biden just needs to get sufficiently not clobbered before then. Buttigieg's entire campaign is built on the idea that he can trick people into thinking he is viable, thereby becoming viable.
Edit: I wish P6 was still around because he'd tell me why Warren isn't required to concede right now. I feel like we are talking about the 3 B's so much that we forgot she was at one point considered viable.
What are her options right now? Is she up...anywhere? lol What do you mean? She's still in a solid third place, nationally... significantly behind Biden and Sanders, yet significantly ahead of Buttigieg and the rest of them. She's probably going to consistently come in 2nd/3rd in many states, while Biden swings wildly up and down between different states. We have the same impression. But how much does a consistent 2nd and 3rd really get her? Especially as people jump ship. Also, my current favorite campaign slogan right now is "CORNFIELDS FOR PETE 2020". The 62% reported is basically entirely rural areas. Just so happens the areas not yet counted are industrialized. How weird! thats rubbish, all the analysis ive seen is the 60% is broadly representative of the whole and it will be very close fight for both the vote % and delegates between sanders and buttigieg with neither having a big advantage by the amount of rural/urban areas left. The result could end with Sanders or Buttigieg winning both measures or one each. Check the NYT map. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/03/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus-precinct-map.html
Pete did well among affluent suburban neighborhoods too to be fair. He's the preferred candidate of affluent white voters that call themselves Democrats largely because the Republican party is so atrocious on social policy but economically they mostly align.
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EPT![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/bG3UnCA.png)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP-BsNfX0AACZX5?format=jpg&name=large)
