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US Politics Mega-thread - Page 2082

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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!

NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.

Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.


If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-04 22:16:30
February 04 2020 22:15 GMT
#41621
Are the colourd spaces the ones counted? What does this graph mean?

Ok, i get it now.. Warren got 18% with 0?
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-04 22:17:19
February 04 2020 22:16 GMT
#41622
On February 05 2020 07:13 Sermokala wrote:
I think a bigger thing to take away is that biden is only 3 perecent of the vote away from Klob. Sanders is also beating pete in the popular vote.

Warren not winning anything just shows that she is second teir to sanders and can't seriously win.


In Pure vote terms Biden was actually only 2% ahead of Klobachar (on 13 and 11 respectively) after realignment but his rural votes helped him get 16% of delegates.
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23580 Posts
February 04 2020 22:17 GMT
#41623
On February 05 2020 07:15 Velr wrote:
Are the colourd spaces the ones counted? What does this graph mean?


Who has the majority of reported delegates based on an unspecified percentage of results from those areas.
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-04 22:25:36
February 04 2020 22:19 GMT
#41624
Do i see this right.. This is a proportianol vote but the media is scared that people wouldn't understand it so they just paint the map?
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
February 04 2020 22:30 GMT
#41625
The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight

[image loading]
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22050 Posts
February 04 2020 22:31 GMT
#41626
On February 05 2020 07:19 Velr wrote:
Do i see this right.. This is a proportianol vote but the media is scared that people wouldn't understand it so they just paint the map?
yes.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
GreenHorizons
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States23580 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-04 22:37:48
February 04 2020 22:37 GMT
#41627
On February 05 2020 07:30 Zaros wrote:
The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



This is what happens when Democrats complain about rural precincts having outsized influence but build it into their own primary
"People like to look at history and think 'If that was me back then, I would have...' We're living through history, and the truth is, whatever you are doing now is probably what you would have done then" "Scratch a Liberal..."
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10834 Posts
February 04 2020 22:37 GMT
#41628
Can we kill it with fire?
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3277 Posts
February 04 2020 22:40 GMT
#41629
On February 05 2020 05:56 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2020 05:37 Simberto wrote:
But there are very simple methods to not have this problem.

We are talking about the problem of transmitting a few numbers over a few hundred kilometers at most. This is a problem which has been solved for centuries.


Here's the big problem. They fucked up first alignment counts in many caucuses, which messed up which candidates were viable, which meant realignment was inaccurate or illegitimate because of the rules, and then people did the math on how to allocate the delegates based on those alignments wrong.

Typically the party collects the same "3 types of data" but they used to only report the final count so no one saw the 'bad math' and process errors.

So they might have a sheet of paper with numbers on it but they can't recapture the moment a candidate should have been declared viable or non-viable but wasn't because of a bad count/bad math. That's what Biden is intimately familiar with and privately arguing invalidates the results.

Source on fucking up the first alignment counts? Everything I’ve seen is about failure to report results after caucusing; viability determinations wouldn’t be effected by that. If they fucked up first alignment counts that’s a bigger deal, but also has no apparent relation to the app or the delayed results.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45221 Posts
February 04 2020 22:41 GMT
#41630
On February 05 2020 07:30 Zaros wrote:
The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight

[image loading]


I'm unfamiliar with how these 3 columns are related. Does Bernie have more votes but might end up getting slightly fewer delegates that Buttigieg? If so, why is that? Is it because it's not a popular vote, but instead by regions (like the general election's electoral college)?
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10834 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-04 22:44:37
February 04 2020 22:43 GMT
#41631
It depends on who counts.

Morons, retards or assholes.

Aka the american electorate/democratic party/who gives a shit.


Sry. Kinda drunk, gonna go to sleep now.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45221 Posts
February 04 2020 22:43 GMT
#41632
[image loading]

2/3 of the results are in, according to Google.
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15728 Posts
February 04 2020 22:44 GMT
#41633
I feel like I understand less after reading more. Who in the living fuck invented this shit
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22050 Posts
February 04 2020 22:48 GMT
#41634
On February 05 2020 07:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2020 07:30 Zaros wrote:
The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



This is what happens when Democrats complain about rural precincts having outsized influence but build it into their own primary
based on what? Do results from rural precincts count double or something?

A 3% difference sounds perfectly natural because there are only 56 delegates, a perfectly identical split between the result (2nd column) and delegates is nigh impossible.

It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18845 Posts
February 04 2020 22:48 GMT
#41635
CNN is reporting those same numbers, so I’d assume they’re wrong for now
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
ChristianS
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3277 Posts
February 04 2020 22:51 GMT
#41636
There’s something really funny about everyone panicking about possible irregularities in the Iowa caucus that could maybe probably not slightly alter the results of the caucus, while no one is especially worried about the fact we’re using the ridiculous undemocratic monstrosity that is a caucus to make official determinations about our government. There’s a metaphor in it, but I’m not sure for what.
"Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity." -Robert J. Hanlon
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
February 04 2020 22:52 GMT
#41637
On February 05 2020 07:48 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2020 07:37 GreenHorizons wrote:
On February 05 2020 07:30 Zaros wrote:
The 3 different types of counts as shown by fivethirtyeight

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]



This is what happens when Democrats complain about rural precincts having outsized influence but build it into their own primary
based on what? Do results from rural precincts count double or something?

A 3% difference sounds perfectly natural because there are only 56 delegates, a perfectly identical split between the result (2nd column) and delegates is nigh impossible.



You need less people per delegate in rural areas compared to urban areas im not sure of the exact reason but it might be each area has a minimum amount of delegates so lots of the small places add up to more delegates with less people than a city.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45221 Posts
February 04 2020 22:53 GMT
#41638
There is still an extra third of the data that needs to be released, but it seems like the big winners are going to be Buttigieg and Sanders, and the biggest loser is Biden (which makes Sanders's top-tier result even better, as Buttigieg's top-tier result might pull some Biden voters away in the future).
"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
Yurie
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
12002 Posts
February 04 2020 22:54 GMT
#41639
On February 05 2020 07:51 ChristianS wrote:
There’s something really funny about everyone panicking about possible irregularities in the Iowa caucus that could maybe probably not slightly alter the results of the caucus, while no one is especially worried about the fact we’re using the ridiculous undemocratic monstrosity that is a caucus to make official determinations about our government. There’s a metaphor in it, but I’m not sure for what.


Well it is a better system than your FPTP normal election system, it at least has that going for it.
DarkPlasmaBall
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States45221 Posts
Last Edited: 2020-02-04 23:06:57
February 04 2020 23:04 GMT
#41640
Apparently with roughly 95% of the results now in, Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa, but Buttigieg won more rural counties *and rural counties are supposedly worth more than non-rural counties when it comes to giving delegates*. It's like the popular vote vs. the electoral vote in the general election ffs.

"There is nothing more satisfying than looking at a crowd of people and helping them get what I love." ~Day[9] Daily #100
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