Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting!
NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.
On November 07 2019 15:09 Belisarius wrote: The closer we get to 2020 the more worried I am.
Even if Trump loses, it seems increasingly likely that he will just say "Well there were some shady things about that "election", we're looking into them. They'll get to the bottom of it. We'll see what happens." and then proceed as if nothing changed.
At that point it's up to the institutions he has spent his whole term tearing down to remove him. I'm not normally in the conspiracy theory camp, but I am seriously concerned the Reichstag has already burned down.
The advantage you have is that Trump is already old. So you won't have 50 years as a lot of other places got. Doesn't seem to be anybody popular, competent or powerful enough to take over after him since the military mostly seems fine still.
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
.
The impeachment will force the senate to choose sides, not just accept or not. If the republicans acquit him in the senate then you know the GOP is truly dead and only Team Trump remains. It means they choose the presidents personal attorney and his two mobster friends as the preferred way of doing foreign policy. It's basically the bankruptcy of the US democracy.
If he doesn't get impeached I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets reelected with some ridiculous obviously phony numbers like most single rulers enjoy. Because all attempts to improve election security have been handily blocked by Mcconnell and hackable voting machines will be used.
And the stakes are very high, because Trump will get prosecuted if he becomes a regular citizen again. So he basically cannot not be president anymore
Are people still thinking this is going to end in a successful vote for impeachment (from the house, we all know it's dead in the senate) or that Trump actually has any risk of prosecution as a citizen?
On November 07 2019 15:09 Belisarius wrote: The closer we get to 2020 the more worried I am.
Even if Trump loses, it seems increasingly likely that he will just say "Well there were some shady things about that "election", we're looking into them. They'll get to the bottom of it. We'll see what happens." and then proceed as if nothing changed.
At that point it's up to the institutions he has spent his whole term tearing down to remove him. I'm not normally in the conspiracy theory camp, but I am seriously concerned the Reichstag has already burned down.
The advantage you have is that Trump is already old. So you won't have 50 years as a lot of other places got. Doesn't seem to be anybody popular, competent or powerful enough to take over after him since the military mostly seems fine still.
He has allready installed his Family members in key positions tho . Just you wait until Kushner has fixed the middle east/Isreal and South America. The Military will be wax in his hands!
On November 07 2019 14:02 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 07 2019 13:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
.
The impeachment will force the senate to choose sides, not just accept or not. If the republicans acquit him in the senate then you know the GOP is truly dead and only Team Trump remains. It means they choose the presidents personal attorney and his two mobster friends as the preferred way of doing foreign policy. It's basically the bankruptcy of the US democracy.
If he doesn't get impeached I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets reelected with some ridiculous obviously phony numbers like most single rulers enjoy. Because all attempts to improve election security have been handily blocked by Mcconnell and hackable voting machines will be used.
And the stakes are very high, because Trump will get prosecuted if he becomes a regular citizen again. So he basically cannot not be president anymore
Are people still thinking this is going to end in a successful vote for impeachment (from the house, we all know it's dead in the senate) or that Trump actually has any risk of prosecution as a citizen?
If he keeps his base, no. Republican lawmakers won't risk to alienate his very powerful base which would be a political suicide, and the next president would be nuts not to pardon him as it would further divide the country for decades.
I expect full reckoning against the people around him though. If the GOP loses power, a lot of his cronies will end up in jail for very, very long. Starting with Giuliani.
On November 07 2019 15:09 Belisarius wrote: The closer we get to 2020 the more worried I am.
Even if Trump loses, it seems increasingly likely that he will just say "Well there were some shady things about that "election", we're looking into them. They'll get to the bottom of it. We'll see what happens." and then proceed as if nothing changed.
At that point it's up to the institutions he has spent his whole term tearing down to remove him. I'm not normally in the conspiracy theory camp, but I am seriously concerned the Reichstag has already burned down.
The advantage you have is that Trump is already old. So you won't have 50 years as a lot of other places got. Doesn't seem to be anybody popular, competent or powerful enough to take over after him since the military mostly seems fine still.
In terms of long-term damage, I'm not happy about his SCJ picks, and if he wins a second term and ends up replacing RBG with a conservative... that's not going to be very good for progressivism over the next few decades.
On November 07 2019 14:02 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 07 2019 13:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
.
The impeachment will force the senate to choose sides, not just accept or not. If the republicans acquit him in the senate then you know the GOP is truly dead and only Team Trump remains. It means they choose the presidents personal attorney and his two mobster friends as the preferred way of doing foreign policy. It's basically the bankruptcy of the US democracy.
If he doesn't get impeached I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets reelected with some ridiculous obviously phony numbers like most single rulers enjoy. Because all attempts to improve election security have been handily blocked by Mcconnell and hackable voting machines will be used.
And the stakes are very high, because Trump will get prosecuted if he becomes a regular citizen again. So he basically cannot not be president anymore
Are people still thinking this is going to end in a successful vote for impeachment (from the house, we all know it's dead in the senate) or that Trump actually has any risk of prosecution as a citizen?
If he keeps his base, no. Republican lawmakers won't risk to alienate his very powerful base which would be a political suicide, and the next president would be nuts not to pardon him as it would further divide the country for decades.
I expect full reckoning against the people around him though. If the GOP loses power, a lot of his cronies will end up in jail for very, very long. Starting with Giuliani.
Democrats theoretically have enough votes in the house to impeach Trump themselves, they haven't yet because unless polling changes significantly (it won't on this Ukraine thing), Democrats can't unanimously agree they should.
I can't imagine a scenario where Giuliani ends up in prison though, at least not longer than Epstein's stay.
Honestly I don't see how the democrats avoid impeaching at this point without looking absolutely terrible. The only play they have at this point is impeach him and when public opinion doesn't change enough for the republicans to ditch him, use it to turn out the base.
On November 07 2019 20:22 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 07 2019 17:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 14:02 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 07 2019 13:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
.
The impeachment will force the senate to choose sides, not just accept or not. If the republicans acquit him in the senate then you know the GOP is truly dead and only Team Trump remains. It means they choose the presidents personal attorney and his two mobster friends as the preferred way of doing foreign policy. It's basically the bankruptcy of the US democracy.
If he doesn't get impeached I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets reelected with some ridiculous obviously phony numbers like most single rulers enjoy. Because all attempts to improve election security have been handily blocked by Mcconnell and hackable voting machines will be used.
And the stakes are very high, because Trump will get prosecuted if he becomes a regular citizen again. So he basically cannot not be president anymore
Are people still thinking this is going to end in a successful vote for impeachment (from the house, we all know it's dead in the senate) or that Trump actually has any risk of prosecution as a citizen?
If he keeps his base, no. Republican lawmakers won't risk to alienate his very powerful base which would be a political suicide, and the next president would be nuts not to pardon him as it would further divide the country for decades.
I expect full reckoning against the people around him though. If the GOP loses power, a lot of his cronies will end up in jail for very, very long. Starting with Giuliani.
Democrats theoretically have enough votes in the house to impeach Trump themselves, they haven't yet because unless polling changes significantly (it won't on this Ukraine thing), Democrats can't unanimously agree they should.
I can't imagine a scenario where Giuliani ends up in prison though, at least not longer than Epstein's stay.
What does voting on Impeachment in the House do now? Republicans will support Trump, he gets acquitted in the Senate, Trump claims victory and the whole thing will be forgotten by election time. Much better to keep proceedings going, get more and more evidence of Trumps wrongdoings, keep the impeachment in the news and either public opinion changes enough that Republicans abandon him, allowing for the possibility of winning the Senate vote or you go into the elections with an ongoing impeachment.
Trump has done enough shit and publicly talked about it that if Democrats want to keep this up they can legit do so for months without even having to reach for something to investigate.
On November 07 2019 20:22 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 07 2019 17:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 14:02 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 07 2019 13:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
.
The impeachment will force the senate to choose sides, not just accept or not. If the republicans acquit him in the senate then you know the GOP is truly dead and only Team Trump remains. It means they choose the presidents personal attorney and his two mobster friends as the preferred way of doing foreign policy. It's basically the bankruptcy of the US democracy.
If he doesn't get impeached I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets reelected with some ridiculous obviously phony numbers like most single rulers enjoy. Because all attempts to improve election security have been handily blocked by Mcconnell and hackable voting machines will be used.
And the stakes are very high, because Trump will get prosecuted if he becomes a regular citizen again. So he basically cannot not be president anymore
Are people still thinking this is going to end in a successful vote for impeachment (from the house, we all know it's dead in the senate) or that Trump actually has any risk of prosecution as a citizen?
If he keeps his base, no. Republican lawmakers won't risk to alienate his very powerful base which would be a political suicide, and the next president would be nuts not to pardon him as it would further divide the country for decades.
I expect full reckoning against the people around him though. If the GOP loses power, a lot of his cronies will end up in jail for very, very long. Starting with Giuliani.
Democrats theoretically have enough votes in the house to impeach Trump themselves, they haven't yet because unless polling changes significantly (it won't on this Ukraine thing), Democrats can't unanimously agree they should.
I can't imagine a scenario where Giuliani ends up in prison though, at least not longer than Epstein's stay.
What does voting on Impeachment in the House do now? Republicans will support Trump, he gets acquitted in the Senate, Trump claims victory and the whole thing will be forgotten by election time. Much better to keep proceedings going, get more and more evidence of Trumps wrongdoings, keep the impeachment in the news and either public opinion changes enough that Republicans abandon him, allowing for the possibility of winning the Senate vote or you go into the elections with an ongoing impeachment.
Trump has done enough shit and publicly talked about it that if Democrats want to keep this up they can legit do so for months without even having to reach for something to investigate.
Remarkably cynical and an abuse of the process (which is a farce in the first place anyway imo) but probably the best they can manage at this point. Of course since they've been playing this tune since he got elected it's likely to have the opposite effect as intended.
It's probably just delaying the inevitable of the Senate "exonerating" Trump. It can still go full disaster and not make it out of the house though.
On November 07 2019 20:22 Biff The Understudy wrote:
On November 07 2019 17:10 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 14:02 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
On November 07 2019 13:06 GreenHorizons wrote:
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
.
The impeachment will force the senate to choose sides, not just accept or not. If the republicans acquit him in the senate then you know the GOP is truly dead and only Team Trump remains. It means they choose the presidents personal attorney and his two mobster friends as the preferred way of doing foreign policy. It's basically the bankruptcy of the US democracy.
If he doesn't get impeached I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets reelected with some ridiculous obviously phony numbers like most single rulers enjoy. Because all attempts to improve election security have been handily blocked by Mcconnell and hackable voting machines will be used.
And the stakes are very high, because Trump will get prosecuted if he becomes a regular citizen again. So he basically cannot not be president anymore
Are people still thinking this is going to end in a successful vote for impeachment (from the house, we all know it's dead in the senate) or that Trump actually has any risk of prosecution as a citizen?
If he keeps his base, no. Republican lawmakers won't risk to alienate his very powerful base which would be a political suicide, and the next president would be nuts not to pardon him as it would further divide the country for decades.
I expect full reckoning against the people around him though. If the GOP loses power, a lot of his cronies will end up in jail for very, very long. Starting with Giuliani.
Democrats theoretically have enough votes in the house to impeach Trump themselves, they haven't yet because unless polling changes significantly (it won't on this Ukraine thing), Democrats can't unanimously agree they should.
I can't imagine a scenario where Giuliani ends up in prison though, at least not longer than Epstein's stay.
What does voting on Impeachment in the House do now? Republicans will support Trump, he gets acquitted in the Senate, Trump claims victory and the whole thing will be forgotten by election time. Much better to keep proceedings going, get more and more evidence of Trumps wrongdoings, keep the impeachment in the news and either public opinion changes enough that Republicans abandon him, allowing for the possibility of winning the Senate vote or you go into the elections with an ongoing impeachment.
Trump has done enough shit and publicly talked about it that if Democrats want to keep this up they can legit do so for months without even having to reach for something to investigate.
Remarkably cynical and an abuse of the process (which is a farce in the first place anyway imo) but probably the best they can manage at this point. Of course since they've been playing this tune since he got elected it's likely to have the opposite effect as intended.
It's probably just delaying the inevitable of the Senate "exonerating" Trump. It can still go full disaster and not make it out of the house though.
I think alot of democrats got tired of taking the high road when it came to politics (at least publicly), so they've been much more willing to play the game in the last few years... granted most of the damage is self inflicted (senate rule changes) and very short-sighted
And meanwhile in Kentucky, there is huge concern that Bevin, after asking for a recanvassing of the votes, will appeal, as the state's constitution says he can, to the legislature (controlled by republicans), which has the power to decide the election if it is contested. Will they have the balls to go through with it ? I would have doubted it, but not anymore.
On November 08 2019 00:58 Nouar wrote: And meanwhile in Kentucky, there is huge concern that Bevin, after for a recanvassing of the votes, will appeal, as the state's constitution says he can, to the legislature (controlled by republicans), which has the power to decide the election if it is contested. Will they have the balls to go through with it ? I would have doubted it, but not anymore.
Trump will insist they do this. Trump sees every election as an extension of him. He feels deeply embarrassed by this situation and he will 100% push for any possible outcome where Democrats don't take Kentucky.
I am really wondering how come Giuliani is STILL employed by Trump. He has continuously shot himself (and Trump) in the foot, and it continues today...
He asserted strongly that everything he did in Ukraine was solely for the benefit of the defense of his client against false accusations from the 2016 campaign. This clearly means for Trump personally and not for the US. I'm... not sure this is the best defense in the event of an accusation of using the country apparatus with a back channel, and the country's money as a quid pro quo for personal gain ?
On November 08 2019 03:58 Nouar wrote: I am really wondering how come Giuliani is STILL employed by Trump. He has continuously shot himself (and Trump) in the foot, and it continues today...
He asserted strongly that everything he did in Ukraine was solely for the benefit of the defense of his client against false accusations from the 2016 campaign. This clearly means for Trump personally and not for the US. I'm... not sure this is the best defense in the event of an accusation of using the country apparatus with a back channel, and the country's money as a quid pro quo for personal gain ?
Rudy and Trump have been bff's for over 30 years and Rudy is Trump's primary attorney, retiring his entire firm in order to represent him. Trump has to ride with rudy no matter what because of decades of inter-meshing relastionships.
The Gop has already sent out their favorite lunatic to disrupt democratic ralies
On November 07 2019 10:21 Aquanim wrote: For Biden to win he either needs to step up his game in the early states or be able to weather the fallout from losing them. I don't think it's obvious that he can do either. That being said, I don't think it's obvious that Sanders or Warren can put together a set of voters large enough to win the primary, or that even if Buttigieg wins Iowa or what have you he can parlay that into further success.
Like... I see the arguments that Biden is quite vulnerable, but it's entirely possible the candidate capable of taking advantage of that vulnerability is Sir-or-Mrs-Not-Appearing-In-This-Primary.
As for their chances of winning the general... every one of them had better hope this Ukraine thing makes a persistent stink.
The Ukraine thing is a distraction at best. Everyone knows Trump is a narcissistic criminal, people either accept it or don't. There's nothing in the Ukraine story that changes that.
Banking on that to carry a candidate is a worse plan than spending Trump's first term on Russiagate, which was an awful strategy itself.
Yes that was a horrible strategy,which i did mention several times in this thread long ago already but noone of the democrats here did agree. Ukraine is a last straw,so while not a great strategy i can see why the democrats want to hold onto it. In a way it is similar to russiagate even though it does seem to have far more substance behind it.
The 2nd term of trump i do fear while his first one didnt particulary worry me.
One of the Trump Foundation lawsuits finally got concluded. Trump Foundation shut down. Trump found to have embezzled funds from his Foundation (which was never in doubt, just took a while to get through the legal system) and required to personally reimburse the charities he defrauded. As always, if Trump has ever accused anyone of a crime you can be certain that he is guilty of that crime. It's just how he works.
Washington — Michael Bloomberg is taking steps to enter the 2020 Democratic presidential campaign, a person familiar with his plans tells CBS News.
Bloomberg, 77, has dispatched aides to Alabama to file paperwork in the state to run as a Democrat. The Cotton State doesn't hold an early Democratic presidential primary, but has the earliest filing deadline for the presidential campaign. Taking steps to file paperwork is the most serious signal yet that the former New York mayor and billionaire is seriously planning for a White House run.
Just what the Dem primary was missing, another centrist billionaire. Because the only thing that stops a bad guy with billions of dollars is a "good" guy with billions of dollars.
Be nice if they just raised the debate bar to 10% in polls.
On November 08 2019 09:06 KwarK wrote: One of the Trump Foundation lawsuits finally got concluded. Trump Foundation shut down. Trump found to have embezzled funds from his Foundation (which was never in doubt, just took a while to get through the legal system) and required to personally reimburse the charities he defrauded. As always, if Trump has ever accused anyone of a crime you can be certain that he is guilty of that crime. It's just how he works.
Besides the two million Trump has to pay now, it also makes him admit guilt.
We can now say the president admitted using 10k of charity money to buy a 6 foot portrait of himself
The president admitted, among other things, to arranging for the charity to pay $10,000 for a 6-foot portrait of him. He also agreed to pay back $11,525 in foundation funds that he spent on sports memorabilia and champagne at a charity gala.
Trump also accepted restrictions on his involvement in other charitable organizations. His three eldest children, who were members of the foundation’s board, must undergo mandatory training on the duties of those who run charities.
Trump also admitted in the agreements to directing that $100,000 in foundation money be used to settle legal claims over an 80-foot flagpole he had built at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, instead of paying the expense out of his own pocket.
In addition, the foundation paid $158,000 to resolve a lawsuit over a prize for a hole-in-one contest at a Trump-owned golf course, and $5,000 for ads promoting Trump’s hotels in the programs for charitable events. Trump admitted these transactions were also improper.
On November 08 2019 11:23 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: Michael Bloomberg is set to announce his 2020 Presidential run.Doubt he will get far.
Really don't understand this one. Why would he start so late, all the others have been going around the country already. Does he think his ad buying power and media connections will be enough?
On November 08 2019 03:58 Nouar wrote: I am really wondering how come Giuliani is STILL employed by Trump. He has continuously shot himself (and Trump) in the foot, and it continues today...
He asserted strongly that everything he did in Ukraine was solely for the benefit of the defense of his client against false accusations from the 2016 campaign. This clearly means for Trump personally and not for the US. I'm... not sure this is the best defense in the event of an accusation of using the country apparatus with a back channel, and the country's money as a quid pro quo for personal gain ?
Rudy and Trump have been bff's for over 30 years and Rudy is Trump's primary attorney, retiring his entire firm in order to represent him. Trump has to ride with rudy no matter what because of decades of inter-meshing relastionships.
EPT
. Just you wait until Kushner has fixed the middle east/Isreal and South America. The Military will be wax in his hands!
