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On October 14 2019 18:56 Sent. wrote:
I think the decision to invade Iraq did much more damage to American credibility in military matters than Trump's actions, and that as Drone said was almost undone at the end of Obama's presidency, so I wouldn't be surprised if people forgot about leaving the Kurds on their own in one or two years. Trump's words are just words, they won't have the same impact as having soldiers from your country die in a war started by Bush.
The decision to invade Iraq pissed off long time allies.
The decision to fuck over Iran and the Kurds pisses off people who might be enticed into an uneasy alliance. It's going to make any kind of diplomatic solution to potential conflict situations that much harder if the party on the other side of the table knows they're likely to get fucked over in 4-8 years when the next president comes in.
Iraq dealt irreparable damage in how much established and close allies trust what the US says. Iran and this Kurd situation deal a direct blow to the US's ability to conduct diplomacy with potential troublemakers.
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On October 14 2019 18:56 Sent. wrote:
I think the decision to invade Iraq did much more damage to American credibility in military matters than Trump's actions, and that as Drone said was almost undone at the end of Obama's presidency, so I wouldn't be surprised if people forgot about leaving the Kurds on their own in one or two years. Trump's words are just words, they won't have the same impact as having soldiers from your country die in a war started by Bush. really, you think the damage from Bush has been undone?
When the US claimed an oil tanker was hit by an Iranian mine the world went 'really?'
When the US claimed Iran was behind the drone strike on the Saudi refinery the world went 'not sure I believe you'
The damage from Bush is still very real today. the world doesn't trust what America says if its looking for a war.
The damage from Trump will be real, everyone will remember the US pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal. Everyone will remember the US betrayed their Kurdish allies and feeding them to the wolves.
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Undone as described by Drone, that is
On October 14 2019 17:34 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Yea, the Marshall plan was a fantastic piece of political work. Iraq war kinda extinguished it as political capital, though, but with Obama, you almost got back to where you used to be. Trump however is gonna require something exceptional to undo.
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Gorsameth is correct, after Iraq nobody belives US in regards to possible "Casus belli".
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Obama and Trump have done nothing but continue the work started long ago and epitomised by Bush.
Destabilise the ME and hand as much power to Saudi as possible.
Its an unbroken chain, just presented in different ways.
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Norway28600 Posts
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/10/09/how-the-world-views-the-u-s-and-its-president-in-9-charts/
![[image loading]](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PG_2018.10.1_U.S.-Image_0-5.png)
This image is 'Confidence in the american President to do the right thing in world affairs'.
Here you can see that Bush started off between 20 and 50% in different european countries in 2001, but dropped down to below 20% during his presidency. With Obama, instant rebound to between 70 and 90%. (Sounds slighly too high tbh but either way, it looks like Obama brought them back above pre-bush numbers. ) Like, when Obama first became president and had this fabled 'apology tour', this was very, very well received in Europe. The peace prize was obviously ridiculous because he got it based on no action, and was not a president of peace, but there really was a sentiment in much of europe that 'okay, now we're back to normal, this guy is good, we can work with him'.
Then with Trump, numbers have dropped to 28% in the UK, and sub 10% in Germany France and Spain.
![[image loading]](https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/PG_2018.10.1_U.S.-Image_1-12.png)
Obama somewhat increased people's impression that the US takes other countries' interest into consideration. Not a huge jump - but Trump made it bounce back to Bush levels.
From a different page, but still pew;
![[image loading]](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/10/PG_2018.10.1_U.S.-Image_0-011.png)
![[image loading]](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/09/PG_2018.10.1_U.S.-Image_0-13.png)
![[image loading]](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/09/PG_2018.10.1_U.S.-Image_0-14.png)
Now, while confidence ratings go higher for Obama than they ever did for bush, favorability ratings did take a drop. Still, Obama undid much of the damage there, too. Not with everybody, but the trend is pretty clear, especially in western europe.
But I don't think the next american president will have an equally easy time. It's gonna take longer. Bush wasn't a complete aberration, remove the Iraq invasion, and he'd be considered a 'meh, bottom half but who cares' type of president. With Trump? It's flat out incomprehensible to many how a country can elect such a buffoon. He will have to be very firmly rejected the next time around for faith to be restored, 75-25 type rejection. Which obviously won't happen. The damage from the Trump presidency in how the world views the US is going to last for decades.
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I think part of the problem is the spotlight from being the "leader of the free world". Bolsonaro is everything Trump but multiplied by 10. He is rude, homophobic, anti-immigration, corrupt, self-serving and incompetent. Yet nobody gives a shit, nor worries about Brazil's international image tanking because of him. People also aren't worried about the UK's lasting international image from having BoJo as PM (okay, not entirely the same thing) despite numerous foreign policy and diplomatic gaffs.
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No, it's the power he has to do what he wants with global implications. Countries all over the world have to react to foreign policy decisions by Trump. It's just not the same with Bolsonaro.
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Northern Ireland24428 Posts
On October 14 2019 17:34 Liquid`Drone wrote:
Yea, the Marshall plan was a fantastic piece of political work. Iraq war kinda extinguished it as political capital, though, but with Obama, you almost got back to where you used to be. Trump however is gonna require something exceptional to undo.
As per your other post on worldwide favourability, indeed.
The Marshall Plan was a fantastic example of the sort of soft power that a superpower could deploy in beneficial ways to the world. Sure it wasn’t entirely altruistic by any means, look at what Japan and Germany are today versus where they were in the mid 1940s.
I feel this process was so wildly successful and was employed with countries the States was previously at war with, but they then changed tack with their dealings with other areas of the world, especially South America and the Middle East.
People are rather historically ignorant I guess and it’s trendy to hate on the States, they have done good when they’ve wielded their power in softer ways. The Good Friday Agreement really benefited from having the USA as a broker, something people are rather quick to forget here.
Opinions differ on these issues and specifics of course, to me what is most disappointing about foreign policy under Trump is there isn’t even a pretence of any moral aspect that constitute America’s image of itself and around the world. There’s not even rhetoric about democracy or whatever, he’s also actively hostile to multilateral institutions at the same time.
It’s not even isolationist either, so it’s not a consistent theme either. It’s kowtowing to strongmen and abandoning both American principles as well as American allies.
It’s very much the worst of many worlds for me anyway, and a real stain on America. Hopefully she can get back on track post-Trump but I imagine it will take time.
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On October 14 2019 22:30 Acrofales wrote:
I think part of the problem is the spotlight from being the "leader of the free world". Bolsonaro is everything Trump but multiplied by 10. He is rude, homophobic, anti-immigration, corrupt, self-serving and incompetent. Yet nobody gives a shit, nor worries about Brazil's international image tanking because of him. People also aren't worried about the UK's lasting international image from having BoJo as PM (okay, not entirely the same thing) despite numerous foreign policy and diplomatic gaffs.
Boris Johnson is lucky the UKs image is already rock bottom for a while, and that everyone thinks he'll get ditched instantly after brexit is resolved. Though he might well leave a lasting image if the UK ends up being just England when the other countries seperate to stay in the EU.
Bolsonaro is most certainly tanking Brazils image, just look at the amazon fire problem.
The big difference is the insane amount of executive power the US president has. Boris couldn't just change military strategy on a phone call with Erdogan, he needs to actually go through channels and defend himself in parliament. And you see the judiciary coming down hard when he does try to wield more executive power.
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United States42260 Posts
On October 14 2019 22:30 Acrofales wrote:
I think part of the problem is the spotlight from being the "leader of the free world". Bolsonaro is everything Trump but multiplied by 10. He is rude, homophobic, anti-immigration, corrupt, self-serving and incompetent. Yet nobody gives a shit, nor worries about Brazil's international image tanking because of him. People also aren't worried about the UK's lasting international image from having BoJo as PM (okay, not entirely the same thing) despite numerous foreign policy and diplomatic gaffs.
Well BoJo wasn’t elected so he’s not as much of a representative of the British electorate. It’s more like a prank where he’s the only one who doesn’t know he’s the victim of it.
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United States42260 Posts
On October 14 2019 23:58 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2019 22:30 Acrofales wrote:
I think part of the problem is the spotlight from being the "leader of the free world". Bolsonaro is everything Trump but multiplied by 10. He is rude, homophobic, anti-immigration, corrupt, self-serving and incompetent. Yet nobody gives a shit, nor worries about Brazil's international image tanking because of him. People also aren't worried about the UK's lasting international image from having BoJo as PM (okay, not entirely the same thing) despite numerous foreign policy and diplomatic gaffs. Boris Johnson is lucky the UKs image is already rock bottom for a while, and that everyone thinks he'll get ditched instantly after brexit is resolved. Though he might well leave a lasting image if the UK ends up being just England when the other countries seperate to stay in the EU. Bolsonaro is most certainly tanking Brazils image, just look at the amazon fire problem. The big difference is the insane amount of executive power the US president has. Boris couldn't just change military strategy on a phone call with Erdogan, he needs to actually go through channels and defend himself in parliament. And you see the judiciary coming down hard when he does try to wield more executive power.
PMs have considerably more power than Presidents, constitutionally speaking. We’re fortunate that Boris is a man completely devoid of any big ideas and that the constitutional prerogatives traditionally granted to the PM are being stripped away specifically because of him.
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On October 14 2019 22:45 schaf wrote:
No, it's the power he has to do what he wants with global implications. Countries all over the world have to react to foreign policy decisions by Trump. It's just not the same with Bolsonaro.
That's GH's cue to remind everyone of the looming/coming climate catastrophe.
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On October 14 2019 20:31 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2019 18:56 Sent. wrote:
I think the decision to invade Iraq did much more damage to American credibility in military matters than Trump's actions, and that as Drone said was almost undone at the end of Obama's presidency, so I wouldn't be surprised if people forgot about leaving the Kurds on their own in one or two years. Trump's words are just words, they won't have the same impact as having soldiers from your country die in a war started by Bush. really, you think the damage from Bush has been undone? When the US claimed an oil tanker was hit by an Iranian mine the world went 'really?' When the US claimed Iran was behind the drone strike on the Saudi refinery the world went 'not sure I believe you' The damage from Bush is still very real today. the world doesn't trust what America says if its looking for a war. The damage from Trump will be real, everyone will remember the US pulling out of the Iranian nuclear deal. Everyone will remember the US betrayed their Kurdish allies and feeding them to the wolves.
If Obama had claimed an oil tanker was hit by an Iranian mine, would the world really have questioned it so much? I think the world questioned it so heavily because it was Trump along with some Bush warmongering retreads in power.
It seemed like there was a significant restoration of trust in the US under Obama, but that is gone again with Trump. I do worry that having another Obama (or our first Bernie) will not fix it this next time. With Bush, it was an aberration. Now it's a pattern.
I do think all the goodwill that stems from WWII and the Marshall Plan has finally been flushed. The US is back to 0 and will have to re-earn every bit of goodwill and trust that we may someday need.
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On October 14 2019 22:30 Acrofales wrote:
I think part of the problem is the spotlight from being the "leader of the free world". Bolsonaro is everything Trump but multiplied by 10. He is rude, homophobic, anti-immigration, corrupt, self-serving and incompetent. Yet nobody gives a shit, nor worries about Brazil's international image tanking because of him. People also aren't worried about the UK's lasting international image from having BoJo as PM (okay, not entirely the same thing) despite numerous foreign policy and diplomatic gaffs.
First world is magnified, this is probably unfair but it's not new. You can reason that if the US gets a better leader, this has a very direct impact on the rest of the world, and if Brazil gets a better leader, the impact is mostly felt on Brazil. Then again there's the Amazon so I'm not sure it works this smoothly.
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We're getting close to needing reddit mathematicians to explain how Bernie is winning right now. Bernie is only ahead of buttigieg by 3%
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3644
This is certainly looking like a 2 person race. I still prefer Bernie over Warren but I hope he drops out as soon as he's in the ground rather than pulling another zombie cosplay like 2016
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On October 15 2019 05:36 Mohdoo wrote:We're getting close to needing reddit mathematicians to explain how Bernie is winning right now. Bernie is only ahead of buttigieg by 3% https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3644This is certainly looking like a 2 person race. I still prefer Bernie over Warren but I hope he drops out as soon as he's in the ground rather than pulling another zombie cosplay like 2016
Millenials don't answer calls from random numbers.
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On October 15 2019 10:14 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On October 15 2019 05:36 Mohdoo wrote:We're getting close to needing reddit mathematicians to explain how Bernie is winning right now. Bernie is only ahead of buttigieg by 3% https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3644This is certainly looking like a 2 person race. I still prefer Bernie over Warren but I hope he drops out as soon as he's in the ground rather than pulling another zombie cosplay like 2016 Millenials don't answer calls from random numbers.
Not clear on how serious this post is, but in any case Warren has a higher percentage of support in the 18-34 age bracket than Sanders.
Could Sanders have more support (among millennials or whereever) than these polls reflect? Quite possible or even probable. Is that support enough to catch Biden/Warren? Much more dubious.
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I still think Biden will lose to Trump. He brings nothing interesting. Any of the others can engage a new demographic in a way but he's just Obamas VP past his prime. I don't really understand how this poll has Bernie so low when his fundraising was so strong.
Beating Trump will be tough anyway when Zuckerberg will put the might of facebook behind him. No need for cambridge analytica when Zuck himself is scared of people taking his wealth. He's talking to all the weirdo brainwashers including Shapiro and Tucker Carlson.
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Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been hosting private and off-the-record dinners with conservative leaders, pundits, and journalists since July, Politico reported on Monday.
Attendees of these meetings, hosted at Zuckerberg’s California homes, have included Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, the Fox News host Tucker Carlson, the right-wing commentator Ben Shapiro, and the conservative CNN contributor Mary Katharine Ham, Politico said.
While Democrats have repeatedly expressed outrage over Facebook’s failure to stem the flow of disinformation on its site, Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have long claimed that social-media companies are censoring conservative speech.
Zuckerberg is reportedly engaged in this wide-ranging effort to reach out to conservatives as a way to calm right-wing calls to crack down on the company. In June, Trump vaguely threatened to sue Google and Facebook. .
https://www.businessinsider.nl/mark-zuckerberg-holding-private-dinners-with-conservatives-2019-10
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On October 10 2019 07:30 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 10 2019 07:15 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Whatever the case the EU should take Trumps threat to economically destroy Turkey seriously.
Turkey has 3 million refugees.
Any destabilisation of the Turkish economy will likely lead to a worse refugee flood into Europe than 2015.
The same threat in which Trump said he’d already destroyed Turkey economically?
Trump just doubled tariffs on Turkish Steel and aluminium imports.Additionally the Lira dropped 20 percent over the past 24 hours.
Erdogan himself claimed he would release the 3.6 million refugees if he did not get his safe zone(I posted the link a few days back - Guardian last month) He is now stating calling the offensive an invasion will also lead to him releasing the migrants.Seems like whatever they do it's just a matter of time before the next migrant crisis starts.
"Hey EU, wake up. I say it again: if you try to frame our operation there as an invasion, our task is simple: we will open the doors and send 3.6 million migrants to you," he said.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/10/10/turkeys-erdogan-threatens-send-millions-refugees-europe-eu-calls/
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EPT
