US Politics Mega-thread - Page 1421
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On May 03 2019 09:10 JimmiC wrote: Well until we actually have criminal proof of what Hillary did based on how you have reacted to all of the allegations and so on a trump I will expect you to think of her as completely exonerated as long as there isn't enough evidence to criminally charge. And you also think that should not testify or cooperate in anyway with the investigation. If Hillary gets subpoenaed, she can always take the Fifth. However, she'll still need to produce whatever is asked of her subject to certain legal limitations. | ||
JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4329 Posts
Dem primary only. CNN Biden +24 Quinnipac Biden +26 Morning Consult Biden +14 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/ | ||
Ben...
Canada3485 Posts
It is interesting though, to see Buttigieg has went from not even registering in a lot of the polls to being consistently trending in third or fourth place. He's now passed Elizabeth Warren. I guess those media rounds he did the last few weeks did help him out a bit, though the initial excitement about him has seemed to wane a bit. But yes, Biden will be a tough hill to climb for the other candidates. | ||
GreenHorizons
United States22988 Posts
On May 03 2019 12:21 Ben... wrote: I'd be wary of taking anything too seriously from the polls at this stage just because it's so early and there haven't been any formal primary debates. Before the initial debates happen, polls tend to be skewed quite a bit by name recognition, which is partly why we're seeing Biden and, to a smaller extent, Bernie do much better than the rest of the field. It is interesting though, to see Buttigieg has went from not even registering in a lot of the polls to being consistently trending in third or fourth place. He's now passed Elizabeth Warren. I guess those media rounds he did the last few weeks did help him out a bit, though the initial excitement about him has seemed to wane a bit. But yes, Biden will be a tough hill to climb for the other candidates. Polling this early is largely useless other than establishing the current pecking order/tiers but this truism often skates over a categorical difference between Bernie and the rest of the candidates. He's the only one with a reliable network of supporters and volunteers in all 50 states (and abroad). Everyone else is paying out the nose for organizers in various states. Buttigieg is a bit of an exception as capturing the "new cool kid in school" vibe after O'Rourke lost it (at least for the moment) has him over performing based on his exposure. Though I'm pretty sure nearly every candidate polling at 1% or better has gotten more airtime than Bernie did in his first quarter running. Biden (so long as he holds more than 15%) ruins a lot of candidates outside chances by mathematically eliminating them from getting any delegates. So long as Biden stays above ~15% it means there's only 1 spot left to make to and through super Tuesday. EDIT: Now I get the push for Warren among Black check marks (rich Black news media figures and 6-figure "organizers"). They need Warren to be the third because anyone else splits the vote in Bernie's favor. | ||
Mohdoo
United States15466 Posts
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Falling
Canada11321 Posts
What will cause him troubles is if people have decided they don't want an establishment Democrat because he is that through and through. Debates aren't his weak point, it's on the campaign trail where he is walking gaff machine. | ||
iPlaY.NettleS
Australia4329 Posts
On May 03 2019 13:13 Mohdoo wrote: Biden's numbers will plummet after the first debate That only really depends on how the media reports on the debate. Biden will easily have the most establishment donations so wouldn’t surprise me to see him treated well by the media. | ||
Biff The Understudy
France7857 Posts
On May 03 2019 14:03 iPlaY.NettleS wrote: That only really depends on how the media reports on the debate. Biden will easily have the most establishment donations so wouldn’t surprise me to see him treated well by the media. What do you call an “establishment donation”? Btw, I think if we could define very clearly what establishment means, this discussion would benefit enormously. | ||
Neneu
Norway492 Posts
On May 03 2019 05:41 xDaunt wrote: I don't believe that this is correct. He was asked a very broad definition and he monkeyed around with his answer. That's what got him into trouble. Keep in mind that his trouble went beyond Congress and the impeachment hearing, but also included the federal court in Arkansas who subsequently found him in contempt of court. There's a very good reason why Clinton was disbarred after all of this. Is that what you say to your clients? He lawyered around that question. Still was not lying. I would love to hear your comparison your comparison of the troubles of Bill Clinton to the troubles of Donald Trump. I am especially interested in the witness tampering. | ||
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
Yep, and when I really get worked up, I've been known to drop a "gosh darnit" every now and then. He lawyered around that question. Still was not lying. You don't get sanctioned by a court and disbarred for lawyering. He made fundamental misrepresentations while under oath. Yeah, I get that he thought that he was being clever, but he really wasn't. And what he did was particularly egregious for an attorney to do. I would love to hear your comparison your comparison of the troubles of Bill Clinton to the troubles of Donald Trump. I am especially interested in the witness tampering. I'd have to go back and look everything that Clinton did. However, based upon my current understanding of the respective cases, I'd say that the best way to compare the two is that while Trump may have committed a thought crime, Clinton committed an actual crime. I have no doubt that Trump wanted very badly to get rid of Mueller and all of this Russia investigation nonsense as it pertained to him. But at the end of the day, he didn't do anything that materially affected either a court proceeding or a criminal investigation (and this is before we get into the issue of the propriety of his actions as the president from an executive discretion standpoint). Hell, Trump turned McGahn loose to go testify for 30+ hours. In stark contrast, Clinton actually did tamper with witnesses in cases and -- even if not technically perjury -- made statements under oath that gave rise to colorable charges against him. Ken Starr had it out for Clinton just as much as Mueller had it out for Trump. In contrast with Mueller, Starr actually had sufficient evidence to conclude that Clinton committed crimes and concluded as such in his report. Mueller didn't. | ||
ZerOCoolSC2
8960 Posts
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Blitzkrieg0
United States13132 Posts
On May 03 2019 22:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: In not sure I buy the "Mueller wanted to take trump down" argument. He could have but didn't. So that line of reasoning should be put to rest. The deep state is all powerful and must be stopped, but never seems to win anything. | ||
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On May 03 2019 22:42 ZerOCoolSC2 wrote: In not sure I buy the "Mueller wanted to take trump down" argument. He could have but didn't. So that line of reasoning should be put to rest. We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this for the reasons that I have discussed ad nauseum. | ||
Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On May 03 2019 22:46 Blitzkrieg0 wrote: The deep state is all powerful and must be stopped, but never seems to win anything. Law enforce must be respected and their work is completely above board, except when they investigate the Republicans or don’t bring criminal charges against presidential candidates. Really, we should just move to the FBI picking the candidates for each party and save everyone a lot of time. | ||
On_Slaught
United States12190 Posts
On May 03 2019 22:52 xDaunt wrote: We're just going to have to agree to disagree on this for the reasons that I have discussed ad nauseum. You both said that Mueller wrote a hit piece to hurt Trump and that he could have made a call on obstruction. If he was really out to get Trump, though, he did a piss poor job of it because the door was open to recommend an indictment yet he choose not to. Unless you think not making a recommendation, thus giving Trump cover, is somehow worse for Trump than the alternative, or Mueller is incompetent, then your two sentiments dont mesh. | ||
Danglars
United States12133 Posts
The only thing uglier than an angry Washington is a fearful Washington. And fear is what’s driving this week’s blitzkrieg of Attorney General William Barr. Mr. Barr tolerantly sat through hours of Democratic insults at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing Wednesday. His reward for his patience was to be labeled, in the space of a news cycle, a lawbreaking, dishonest, obstructing hack. Speaker Nancy Pelosi publicly accused Mr. Barr of lying to Congress, which, she added, is “considered a crime.” House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerrold Nadler said he will move to hold Mr. Barr in contempt unless the attorney general acquiesces to the unprecedented demand that he submit to cross-examination by committee staff attorneys. James Comey, former director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, lamented that Donald Trump had “eaten” Mr. Barr’s “soul.” Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren demands the attorney general resign. California Rep. Eric Swalwell wants him impeached. These attacks aren’t about special counsel Robert Mueller, his report or even the surreal debate over Mr. Barr’s first letter describing the report. The attorney general delivered the transparency Democrats demanded: He quickly released a lightly redacted report, which portrayed the president in a negative light. What do Democrats have to object to? Some of this is frustration. Democrats foolishly invested two years of political capital in the idea that Mr. Mueller would prove President Trump had colluded with Russia, and Mr. Mueller left them empty-handed. Some of it is personal. Democrats resent that Mr. Barr won’t cower or apologize for doing his job. Some is bitterness that Mr. Barr is performing like a real attorney general, making the call against obstruction-of-justice charges rather than sitting back and letting Democrats have their fun with Mr. Mueller’s obstruction innuendo. But most of it is likely fear. Mr. Barr made real news in that Senate hearing, and while the press didn’t notice, Democrats did. The attorney general said he’d already assigned people at the Justice Department to assist his investigation of the origins of the Trump-Russia probe. He said his review would be far-reaching—that he was obtaining details from congressional investigations, from the ongoing probe by the department’s inspector general, Michael Horowitz, and even from Mr. Mueller’s work. Mr. Barr said the investigation wouldn’t focus only on the fall 2016 justifications for secret surveillance warrants against Trump team members but would go back months earlier. He also said he’d focus on the infamous “dossier” concocted by opposition-research firm Fusion GPS and British former spy Christopher Steele, on which the FBI relied so heavily in its probe. Mr. Barr acknowledged his concern that the dossier itself could be Russian disinformation, a possibility he described as not “entirely speculative.” He also revealed that the department has “multiple criminal leak investigations under way” into the disclosure of classified details about the Trump-Russia investigation. Do not underestimate how many powerful people in Washington have something to lose from Mr. Barr’s probe. Among them: Former and current leaders of the law-enforcement and intelligence communities. The Democratic Party pooh-bahs who paid a foreign national (Mr. Steele) to collect information from Russians and deliver it to the FBI. The government officials who misused their positions to target a presidential campaign. The leakers. The media. More than reputations are at risk. Revelations could lead to lawsuits, formal disciplinary actions, lost jobs, even criminal prosecution. The attacks on Mr. Barr are first and foremost an effort to force him out, to prevent this information from coming to light until Democrats can retake the White House in 2020. As a fallback, the coordinated campaign works as a pre-emptive smear, diminishing the credibility of his ultimate findings by priming the public to view him as a partisan. That’s why Mr. Barr isn’t alone in getting slimed. Natasha Bertrand at Politico last month penned a hit piece on the respected Mr. Horowitz. It’s clear the inspector general is asking the right questions. The Politico article acknowledges he’s homing in on Mr. Steele’s “credibility” and the dossier’s “veracity”—then goes on to provide a defense of Mr. Steele and his dossier, while quoting unnamed sources who deride the “quality” of the Horowitz probe, and (hilariously) claim the long-tenured inspector general is not “well-versed” in core Justice Department functions. “We have to stop using the criminal-justice process as a political weapon,” Mr. Barr said Wednesday. The line didn’t get much notice, but that worthy goal increasingly looks to be a reason Mr. Barr accepted this unpleasant job. Stopping this abuse requires understanding how it started. The liberal establishment, including journalists friendly with it, doesn’t want that to happen, and so has made it a mission to destroy Mr. Barr. The attorney general seems to know what he’s up against, and remains undeterred. That’s the sort of steely will necessary to right the ship at the Justice Department and the FBI. WSJ One more word about specifically Mueller complaining about the press coverage. Why would a prosecutor, who has finished his report and whose staff is working with the DOJ to release it with minor redactions, be concerned about the things the press is getting wrong in a few short weeks? It's entirely reasonable for Barr to simply give a quick breakdown of the principal conclusions, instead of releasing parts in piecemeal fashion. If Mueller really wanted it to be quickly released after conclusion, he could've done more to indicate to Barr the (6e) redactions prior to submission. He simply couldn't stand a brief description of his failure to reach a conclusion on obstruction to deflateAndrew McCarthy: An investigation into whether the president of the United States committed treason has devolved into a squabble over Attorney General Bill Barr’s brief letter saying that he didn’t. We’ve gone from Donald Trump allegedly betraying the nation to Bill Barr allegedly betraying the nation, from potential Trump impeachment to potential Barr impeachment. Barr’s offense, of course, is writing a quick letter summarizing the top-line conclusions of the Mueller report. Ever since, he’s been the focus of conspiracy theories and the target of smears. The anti-Barr fury reached a new level with the news that Robert Mueller wrote him a letter complaining about the summary. Not since the Zimmermann telegram has a missive so exercised Washington, at least the segment of it that’s been in a perpetual lather of outrage since November 2016. Let’s be clear: If Barr wanted to cover for Trump, he could have crimped the Mueller probe, sat on the report or redacted the report into meaninglessness. He did none of the above. No one can claim his summary of findings was inaccurate. According to Barr, even Mueller conceded as much in a phone call. Mueller instead complained about the press coverage of the Barr summary, which isn’t, strictly speaking, the attorney general’s responsibility. Barr’s conduct is defensible on its own terms. He wanted to get the basic verdict out because the investigation had so roiled our national life, especially the possibility that there was collusion with the Russians. When Mueller came back to him with a request for release of the summaries from the report, Barr declined because he didn’t want to get into piecemeal releases when the full report would soon be available. That’s what makes the controversy so nonsensical. Barr went further than required by the regulations to release the entirety of the report, letting everyone decide for themselves. What else was he supposed to do? Of course, Barr’s summary letter inevitably lacked the narrative force and details of the 400-page report, but we know that . . . because he released the report. The notion that Barr was deceptive in congressional testimony is similarly absurd. In an exchange with Senator Chris Van Hollen last month, he was asked if Mueller supported his “conclusion,” meaning his judgment that the president didn’t obstruct justice. Barr accurately said he didn’t know. Representative Charlie Crist asked Barr if he knew what Mueller officials anonymously complaining about his letter were referring to. Barr said he didn’t (he presumably hadn’t talked to these anonymous officials), but volunteered that they probably wanted more information out. Ultimately, the firestorm over Barr’s letter is a misdirection, and he’s a scapegoat. If Robert Mueller wanted to recommend charging Trump with obstruction of justice, he could have done so. Instead, he punted, and now he — or people around him — is upset that the Barr letter accurately stated his convoluted not-guilty/not-exonerated bottom line. As for the Democrats, if they disagree with Barr’s conclusion that Trump didn’t commit a chargeable crime, it is fully within their power to impeach the president for abuse of power. Democrats still want someone else to do their work for them. First, they wanted Mueller to blow Trump out of the water, and now they want Barr to adopt a frankly adversarial posture toward the president. Barr is not the one distorting procedure or norms here. It’s the Mueller team that declined to make a call on whether Trump had committed a crime or not (the job we ordinarily ask prosecutors to do), yet catalogued his conduct in a quasi-indictment written for public consumption (which prosecutors aren’t supposed to do) and, now we know, cared very much about the media narrative around its report (a public-relations or partisan question, not a legal one). That Barr and his letter are the focus of such political and media ire is a symptom of the lunacy of this era, rather than anything rotten in his Department of Justice. National Review I haven't seen a single Democratic candidate other than Tulsi Gabbard staking out a MoveOn-style position on a concluded investigation. If the breathless leaks on Russia collusion during the investigation was puzzling, the big encirclement of Barr and the politics of fear & personal destruction is a step further. | ||
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On May 03 2019 23:09 On_Slaught wrote: You both said that Mueller wrote a hit piece to hurt Trump and that he could have made a call on obstruction. If he was really out to get Trump, though, he did a piss poor job of it because the door was open to recommend an indictment yet he choose not to. Unless you think not making a recommendation, thus giving Trump cover, is somehow worse for Trump than the alternative, or Mueller is incompetent, then your two sentiments dont mesh. Of course my statements mesh. You have to separate the issues. The first issue is whether Mueller could conclude that Trump committed a crime under the OLC guidelines, regardless of the merits of the charge. What I have said on that point is that he could. The second issue is the quality of the merits of any charge that Mueller might bring. This is a separate and unrelated inquiry. Mueller clearly concludes in his report that there was no charge to bring with regards to the Russia conspiracy stuff in Volume 1. As to the Volume 2 stuff pertaining to obstruction, Mueller reached no conclusion. I think that the reason why he decided to reach no conclusion and take the tact that he did was because Mueller knew that the obstruction charges would not hold up on the merits. So rather than exonerate Trump by conclusively stating no charges would be brought for obstruction, Mueller cooked up this nonsense excuse about how the OLC guidelines prevented him from reaching a conclusion. This excuse then allowed Mueller to create a huge cloud over Trump that less-discerning people would interpret as Trump actually did obstruct justice. Stated another way, Mueller was playing politics with the intention of inflicting as much damage upon Trump as possible on the way out. | ||
On_Slaught
United States12190 Posts
On May 03 2019 23:53 xDaunt wrote: Of course my statements mesh. You have to separate the issues. The first issue is whether Mueller could conclude that Trump committed a crime under the OLC guidelines, regardless of the merits of the charge. What I have said on that point is that he could. The second issue is the quality of the merits of any charge that Mueller might bring. This is a separate and unrelated inquiry. Mueller clearly concludes in his report that there was no charge to bring with regards to the Russia conspiracy stuff in Volume 1. As to the Volume 2 stuff pertaining to obstruction, Mueller reached no conclusion. I think that the reason why he decided to reach no conclusion and take the tact that he did was because Mueller knew that the obstruction charges would not hold up on the merits. So rather than exonerate Trump by conclusively stating no charges would be brought for obstruction, Mueller cooked up this nonsense excuse about how the OLC guidelines prevented him from reaching a conclusion. This excuse then allowed Mueller to create a huge cloud over Trump that less-discerning people would interpret as Trump actually did obstruct justice. Stated another way, Mueller was playing politics with the intention of inflicting as much damage upon Trump as possible on the way out. If it's a hit job as you say, then Mueller wouldn't give a shit if the charges actually held up; just the indictment recommendation alone would be catastrophic for Trump. It's not like he would need to actually put up or shut up by putting Trump on trial himself. He would just leave it to Congress. Also, the idea that Mueller was just using the un-indictable argument to avoid clearing Trump holds no water in light of the report literally saying "if we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the president clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state." | ||
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