EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 849
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On May 12 2017 19:34 TheDwf wrote: After his nomination Sunday, Macron will immediately go to Berlin the day after. Such a rush to bow to the overlord... You mean like pretty much all German chancellors/ foreign ministers have their first visit to France? | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
e: ninja'd by 3 mins. shame on me | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On May 12 2017 19:50 mahrgell wrote: You mean like pretty much all German chancellors/ foreign ministers have their first visit to France? ... where they don't confirm that yes, yes, they will be the good boys doing the “structural reforms” before asking anything. | ||
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opisska
Poland8852 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On May 12 2017 19:55 TheDwf wrote: ... where they don't confirm that yes, yes, they will be the good boys doing the “structural reforms” before asking anything. Because that' totally what is gonna happen, yeah. But I'm sure we find some Reichsbürger in Germany too, who will claim that the German visits in Paris are only so we can pledge to our occupational powers. | ||
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TMG26
Portugal2017 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On May 12 2017 20:00 mahrgell wrote: Because that' totally what is gonna happen, yeah. Yep, especially as it's literally what he announced in several interviews : “France needs to do structural reforms to restore its credibility”. http://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/presidentielle-macron-vise-l-efficacite-economique-et-la-justice-sociale-4922294 Sur l'économie, qu'entendez-vous dire à Berlin ? L'Allemagne, aujourd'hui, attend que la France soit au rendez-vous des réformes. Tant qu'elle ne le sera pas, on ne pourra pas retrouver la confiance des Allemands qu'on a trahis deux fois, en 2003 et en 2007. Ensuite, il faut que l'Allemagne considère que sa situation elle-même n'est pas durablement tenable. En raison des déséquilibres de la zone euro, elle accumule des excédents qui ne sont bons ni pour son économie ni pour le reste de la zone euro. Rough translation: About the economy, what will you say to Berlin? Germany, today, waits France to do reforms. As long as we won't do it, we won't regain the [German] confidence that we betrayed two times, in 2003 and 2007. Then, Germany will need to realize that the situation itself isn't sustainable on the long-term. Because of the imbalances of the eurozone, Germany is accumulating surpluses which are neither good for its economy nor for the rest of the eurozone. Notice in particular this “then”. He recognizes the imbalances of the eurozone, but thinks we need to adapt first before asking anything. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22597 Posts
On May 12 2017 20:11 TheDwf wrote: Yep, especially as it's literally what he announced in several interviews : “France needs to do structural reforms to restore its credibility”. http://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/presidentielle-macron-vise-l-efficacite-economique-et-la-justice-sociale-4922294 Rough translation: About the economy, what will you say to Berlin? Germany, today, waits France to do reforms. As long as we won't do it, we won't regain the [German] confidence that we betrayed two times, in 2003 and 2007. Then, Germany will need to realize that the situation itself isn't sustainable on the long-term. Because of the imbalances of the eurozone, Germany is accumulating surpluses which are neither good for its economy nor for the rest of the eurozone. Notice in particular this “then”. He recognizes the imbalances of the eurozone, but thinks we need to adapt first before asking anything. Yes? because as he says France has promised and not delivered twice before. There is no reason for Germany to agree to a deal unless they can be sure France will follow through this time. International diplomacy and negotiations hinge heavily on trust, since there are few real pressure measures between allies. If you betray that trust you need to win it back next time. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18445 Posts
On May 12 2017 20:11 TheDwf wrote: Yep, especially as it's literally what he announced in several interviews : “France needs to do structural reforms to restore its credibility”. http://www.ouest-france.fr/politique/emmanuel-macron/presidentielle-macron-vise-l-efficacite-economique-et-la-justice-sociale-4922294 Rough translation: About the economy, what will you say to Berlin? Germany, today, waits France to do reforms. As long as we won't do it, we won't regain the [German] confidence that we betrayed two times, in 2003 and 2007. Then, Germany will need to realize that the situation itself isn't sustainable on the long-term. Because of the imbalances of the eurozone, Germany is accumulating surpluses which are neither good for its economy nor for the rest of the eurozone. Notice in particular this “then”. He recognizes the imbalances of the eurozone, but thinks we need to adapt first before asking anything. I fail to see the problem. He thinks France should first make good on its promises and fix its own problems, and THEN has the right to tell Germany to do the same. You can't go complain to Germany that it's doing things wrong when you promised to fix your own shit, but never went through with it. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On May 12 2017 20:19 Gorsameth wrote: Yes? because as he says France has promised and not delivered twice before. There is no reason for Germany to agree to a deal unless they can be sure France will follow through this time. International diplomacy and negotiations hinge heavily on trust, since there are few real pressure measures between allies. If you betray that trust you need to win it back next time. This is a fool's bargain, Greece obeyed to everything, got destroyed for nothing and this ethereal “trust” is still not back. It's too easy to play this card and demand again and again higher commitment because “we're not fully convinced yet”. There is every reason to agree to a deal because this system is non-viable on the long-term; incidentally the political systems in the South are collapsing, economies are suffering or ravaged, almost 11 millions of people voted for a fascist in France, but eh, no big deal, we have time to merrily continue.  The truth is that Germany won't ever trust some of their “partners” again, which they see as weak and unreliable. The trust argument is null. Some German columnist said it with brutal honesty: http://www.liberation.fr/elections-presidentielle-legislatives-2017/2017/03/28/la-confiance-entre-la-france-et-l-allemagne-que-macron-appelle-de-ses-voeux-est-inexistante_1558864 Alors que toute la fierté nationale allemande se nourrit des succès économiques des dernières années, il se trouve peu d’Allemands aujourd’hui pour déclarer que les deux pays agissent sur un pied d’égalité. Les élites allemandes éprouvent de plus en plus de difficultés à comprendre comment réagit la France et pourquoi les choses y fonctionnent de manière si différente ; l’opinion publique ne s’y intéresse guère. Non, la confiance qu’Emmanuel Macron appelle de ses vœux est actuellement inexistante. Et même au prix d’efforts consentis de la part de Macron, s’il se haussait sur la pointe des pieds, Angela Merkel resterait le seul maître du jeu pour décider de refréner son ministre des Finances mal-aimé Wolfgang Schäuble et pour laisser à la France l’illusion qu’elle agit toujours sur un pied d’égalité avec l’Allemagne. Rough translation : While the whole German national pride is based on the economic success of the last years, you would find few German today to state that both countries act on equal terms. German elites have more and more difficulty to understand how France reacts and why things there work so differently; the public opinion isn't interested in this. No, the trust that Macron wants and hopes is actually nonexistent. And even if Macron consented to efforts, (…) Angela Merkel would stay the only master of the game to decide to hold back Schäuble and leave France under the illusion that it's still on equal terms with Germany. Can't be any clearer than that. It's from Andreas Rüttenauer, Taz columnist. And isn't the Taz supposed to be a left-wing newspaper? Can't even imagine what a hardcore right columnist would write... On May 12 2017 21:44 Acrofales wrote: I fail to see the problem. He thinks France should first make good on its promises and fix its own problems, and THEN has the right to tell Germany to do the same. You can't go complain to Germany that it's doing things wrong when you promised to fix your own shit, but never went through with it. The problem is the wrong diagnosis and the wrong solution. Like all liberals, Macron thinks that France's high unemployment is due to what he calls “rigidity” in the labour market and “excessive public spending”. (Macron said that France is “the only European country which didn't solve mass unemployment”; apparently he's unaware of the existence of Spain, Italy or Greece…) His solution is simply to copy what Germany did 15 years ago, i.e. compress/lower wages to gain market shares on exports. But Germany's model cannot be reproduced since it's unilateral and non-cooperative by design. It relied on others not doing the same thing; if everyone does the same, then by definition no competitiveness differential is created, but demand gets massacred, which is of course dumb when the vast majority of trade is done within the same zone. The last problem is that when you don't confront your “partner” about his delusions (literally the most innocuous candidate for them got elected, the most pro-UE, yet some German newspapers still asked “How much Macron will cost us?” lol…), they will only grow worse. Since Macron will obey and play the “nice guy who understood,” this simply means that the German right will get to dictate when we French minions have done enough. Spoiler: it will never be enough. | ||
Poopi
France13018 Posts
On May 12 2017 19:34 TheDwf wrote: After his nomination Sunday, Macron will immediately go to Berlin the day after. Such a rush to bow to the overlord... The salt is strong in you, that's beautiful :D edit: (Macron said that France is “the only European country which didn't solve mass unemployment”; apparently he's unaware of the existence of Spain, Italy or Greece…) Pretty sure he didn't said that. Pretty sure he actually said: "only major European country". It's a clever way to discard any country that won't fit his narrative! | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18445 Posts
On May 12 2017 23:24 Poopi wrote: The salt is strong in you, that's beautiful :D edit: Pretty sure he didn't said that. Pretty sure he actually said: "only major European country". It's a clever way to discard any country that won't fit his narrative! If Italy and Spain aren't major European countries, then effectively only Germany and France are, so it's a rather empty statement. I guess the UK would fit, but they're not in the Eurozone, and it seems unlikely he'd be talking about them in this context. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9331 Posts
I would say only Greece and Spain have a serious unemployment problem | ||
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Poopi
France13018 Posts
On May 12 2017 23:40 Acrofales wrote: If Italy and Spain aren't major European countries, then effectively only Germany and France are, so it's a rather empty statement. I guess the UK would fit, but they're not in the Eurozone, and it seems unlikely he'd be talking about them in this context. Of course it's an empty statement, isn't it what politics debates are all about? (he said this during the debate against MLP) | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
On May 12 2017 23:53 Sent. wrote: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Unemployment_rates,_seasonally_adjusted,_March_2017_(%)_F2.png I would say only Greece and Spain have a serious unemployment problem I'd bet you can doulbe that for youngsters :-/ | ||
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warding
Portugal2397 Posts
On May 12 2017 22:57 TheDwf wrote: The problem is the wrong diagnosis and the wrong solution. Like all liberals, Macron thinks that France's high unemployment is due to what he calls “rigidity” in the labour market and “excessive public spending”. (Macron said that France is “the only European country which didn't solve mass unemployment”; apparently he's unaware of the existence of Spain, Italy or Greece…) His solution is simply to copy what Germany did 15 years ago, i.e. compress/lower wages to gain market shares on exports. But Germany's model cannot be reproduced since it's unilateral and non-cooperative by design. It relied on others not doing the same thing; if everyone does the same, then by definition no competitiveness differential is created, but demand gets massacred, which is of course dumb when the vast majority of trade is done within the same zone. The logic here was faulty. You're bundling together Germany's Hartz reforms with their foreign trade surplus and then claiming both can't be done by France because not every country can have trade surpluses. You don't have to bundle them together, you can make labor laws flexible and maintain whatever other macroeconomic policies you wish. I'm ready to discuss your disdain for these liberal ideas over labor laws. I'll just point towards the graph posted above with the unemployment rates per country. The highest unemployment is in Portugal, Greece, Italy, France and Spain (I don't know enough about Croatia, or Cyprus). Guess which European countries have the most rigid labor laws? | ||
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
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warding
Portugal2397 Posts
On May 13 2017 04:00 Big J wrote: The Hartz reforms made labor cheap, so more employees are working for the same sum of wages. You are only trading wage for lower unemployment with labor flexibilization. The increased production (through more labor) is then exported. Unless you are a nationalist who cares for his country being the best in a dick comparison of GDP and exports there is absolutely no gain for the people. Rather the opposite. The people that used to be unemployed now have to work for the same money. What you actually have to do is raise the wage quota. Which means forcing the capitalists to decrease their payouts or raise the taxes on them and redistribute instead of letting their money be used in useless investments that just drive the prices of scarce goods up. Neither is possible unless you close the door to economic zones that don't do the same. Which is stupid, because then you are losing out on a ton of efficiency in terms of specialization. So the capitalist wheel keeps spinning round and round and round. "no gain for the people" - that's not what the unemployment rates say, nor Germany's economic performance in the past ten years in comparison to France. Somehow you believe that being unemployed for X subsidy is the same as being employed for X wage, and that just doesn't take into account the devastating effects of unemployment on the skills and mental health of the population. | ||
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SoSexy
Italy3725 Posts
Debora Serracchiani is the governor of friuli venezia-giulia, a small region in north-east italy. She is from the democratic party (the same as Renzi). An asylum seeker there raped a girl and Serracchiani wrote a tweet saying that rape is horrible but even more so if it is committed by someone that your country was giving asylum to. The thing exploded and many politicians of the democratic party attacked her, saying that this is racism. The most notable intervention was by Roberto Saviano (the writer of Gomorra), who said that Serracchiani should run with Salvini (the leader of the Lega Nord, the right-wing party similar to the national front in France). My perception from the public debate in Italy, comments in newspapers sections and chatting with people is that Saviano was once very respected thanks to his work on exposing mafia (Gomorra is still an amazing book) but he is now losing a lot. Many democratic party electors are attacking him, arguing that he is too far detached from the everyday life in Italian suburbs (especially Rome). Sorry for grammar, typing from phone | ||
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