EPTOh well, it's better than some of the other possibilities presented in this election.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 834
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Oh well, it's better than some of the other possibilities presented in this election. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/m4YNzTo.jpg) First picture: percentage of expressed votes needed to match the 12.5% required threshold to advance Second picture: number of votes the first 5 candidates got in 2017, and the related % of registered voters Third picture: difference in votes for the first 4 candidates between the présidentielle and the législatives in 2012 The abstention was 40, 40 and 45% in 2002, 2007 and 2012. It's unclear how much there will be this year, the abstention could be lower because there will actually something at stake this time (since 1981 all presidents got a majority after their election). The presidential majority got 40+% (expressed) in the first round in 2002, 2007 and 2012. Macron won't have that much. The opposition got 35+% in the first round. There's no more bipartism so no one will have that. Demobilization between the présidentielle and the législatives is differential, usually the two first parties retain their voters while others collapse. But bipartism is dead, so what will happen this year? Hard to know. Macron's program is only supported by 50-60% of people who voted for him in the first round, so will others who voted by default come back? Le Pen completely failed her campaign, so will her voters come back or sulk? The PS and the right are divided between those who'd like to work with Macron and those who want to oppose. The PS violently collapsed so they should be swept. The right can retain 200+ députés. The left is divided, communists will have candidates against Mélenchon's candidates in most circonscriptions… and in some cases a left-wing PS or ecologist candidate… so it could be a massacre with each of them killing each other. Macron has no solid party but at least his supporters will be united by their victory… so he could actually make it work. There's no global poll possible since it works district by district, so everything will depend on the local configurations. In some circonscriptions there will be triangulaires, i. e. 3 candidates reach the second round. Those scenariis are highly unpredicable. Theoretically there could even be 4-way matches. The FN gets more than 35% of the expressed votes in 84 districts, so they can hope something like 20-50 députés perhaps? Even if Macron doesn't get the absolute majority, assuming he's first I don't see why he wouldn't be able to convince a few people from the right-wing PS or the “moderate” in the mainstream right to work with him. | ||
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
A large trove of emails from the campaign of French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron was posted online late on Friday, 1-1/2 days before voters go to the polls to choose the country's next president in a run-off against far-right rival Marine Le Pen. Some nine gigabytes of data were posted by a user called EMLEAKS to Pastebin, a document-sharing site that allows anonymous posting. It was not immediately clear who was responsible for posting the data or whether the emails were genuine. In a statement, Macron's political movement En Marche! (Onwards!) confirmed that it had been hacked. "The En Marche! Movement has been the victim of a massive and co-ordinated hack this evening which has given rise to the diffusion on social media of various internal information," the statement said. An interior ministry official declined to comment, citing French rules which forbid any commentary liable to influence an election, and which took effect at midnight French time on Friday (2200 GMT). Comments about the email dump began to appear on Friday evening just hours before the official ban on campaigning began. The ban is due to stay in place until the last polling stations close on Sunday at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT). Opinion polls show independent centrist Macron is set to beat National Front candidate Le Pen in Sunday's second round of voting in what is seen to be France's most important election in decades. Source | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
Disgusting method, and of course a few hours before the end of the campaign... Some people must be really desperate... Too bad for them, their 3 IQ candidate still won't be elected! | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:00 TheDwf wrote: Disgusting method, and of course a few hours before the end of the campaign... Some people must be really desperate... Too bad for them, their 3 IQ candidate still won't be elected! Please tell me Macron blames Russia for influencing the election right after America did her best with both Obama and Trump. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:20 Danglars wrote: Please tell me Macron blames Russia for influencing the election right after America did her best with both Obama and Trump. Macron can't say anything, he cannot speak for 44 hours! There's no mention of Russia in their press release a few hours ago. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:24 TheDwf wrote: Macron can't say anything, he cannot speak for 44 hours! There's no mention of Russia in their press release a few hours ago. I forgot about France's totally awesome law that limits last minute surprises right before an election. I wish my nation did smart things like that. | ||
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
By NICOLE PERLROTH APRIL 24, 2017 The campaign of the French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron has been targeted by what appear to be the same Russian operatives responsible for hacks of Democratic campaign officials before last year’s American presidential election, a cybersecurity firm warns in a new report. The report has heightened concerns that Russia may turn its playbook on France in an effort to harm Mr. Macron’s candidacy and bolster that of Mr. Macron’s rival, the National Front leader Marine Le Pen, in the final weeks of the French presidential campaign. Security researchers at the cybersecurity firm, Trend Micro, said that on March 15 they spotted a hacking group they believe to be a Russian intelligence unit turn its weapons on Mr. Macron’s campaign — sending emails to campaign officials and others with links to fake websites designed to bait them into turning over passwords. The group began registering several decoy internet addresses last month and as recently as April 15, naming one onedrive-en-marche.fr and another mail-en-marche.fr to mimic the name of Mr. Macron’s political party, En Marche. Those websites were registered to a block of web addresses that Trend Micro’s researchers say belong to the Russian intelligence unit they refer to as Pawn Storm, but is alternatively known as Fancy Bear, APT 28 or the Sofacy Group. American and European intelligence agencies and American private security researchers determined that the group was responsible for hacking the Democratic National Committee last year. Source | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:32 Plansix wrote: I forgot about France's totally awesome law that limits last minute surprises right before an election. I wish my nation did smart things like that. You also wish your nation had France's awesome electoral system, in which whoever gets the most votes wins.  | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:36 TheDwf wrote: You also wish your nation had France's awesome electoral system, in which whoever gets the most votes wins. There is only one office in our entire nation where that doesn't happen. And that office was specifically designed to empower less populated states and assure representation the entire nation of states. The result sucks, but there are reasons that system exits. Also you election system is crazy. People can just call for snap elections and you have rounds of elections. We have have no ability to process this information here in America land. | ||
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Sent.
Poland9297 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:40 Nyxisto wrote: I wonder what evil Risotto recipes will show up in this leak. The biggest medium for this is social media but I don't think this can gain traction fast enough. Luckily twitter and others haven't taken European elections hostage to the degree that they have in the US. That company is going to hold a special place in history. Like in the "they created social tools they really had no ability or will to control." | ||
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Mohdoo
United States15743 Posts
In a worst case scenario: Lets say Russia begins hacking the emails and whatever else they can of all major European elections. The evidence is there, everyone knows it, blah blah. Let's say it gets proven to the point where LegalLord agrees it is true. What does anyone even really do? | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:42 Mohdoo wrote: If this turns out to be Russia, I genuinely wonder what in the world we are going to do about cyber attacks like this. In a worst case scenario: Lets say Russia begins hacking the emails and whatever else they can of all major European elections. The evidence is there, everyone knows it, blah blah. Let's say it gets proven to the point where LegalLord agrees it is true. What does anyone even really do? They change the way the internet works and the way information travels between providers at the root level. It might not be that popular a decision, but at some point a politician is going to link controlling the internet to national security and people will start to agree. At some point people will grow to see the security of their information as something they should have to be defending against everyone across the entire globe. Or create a separate internet that is far more secure and less open for elections and in nation business. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22311 Posts
On May 06 2017 08:42 Mohdoo wrote: If this turns out to be Russia, I genuinely wonder what in the world we are going to do about cyber attacks like this. In a worst case scenario: Lets say Russia begins hacking the emails and whatever else they can of all major European elections. The evidence is there, everyone knows it, blah blah. Let's say it gets proven to the point where LegalLord agrees it is true. What does anyone even really do? Full on economic sanctions? Trade embargo's? The usual pressure measures when dealing with hostile countries we don't want to go to war with. | ||
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