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France12912 Posts
On May 06 2017 21:05 Prothoenor wrote:
This French election leak leads to bizarre things even more obviously so than the US leak.
So if Macron broke the law, lied to the voters, or something else crucial to his ability to become president, the French media will be breaking the law if they report on it. So the idea is to elect Macron, then to depose him right away?
And hacking to influence the outcome of an election, that surely is an act of war by Russia, once again. So does this actually mean Russia and France are in wartime now? I mean, Russia does seem to have committed the same act of war again, that they also did vs the US. I have little doubts it is Russians linked to the FSB, linked to Putin, once again.
So how bad does information warfare have to get before there are real world war consequences? Or does a hack really have to kill someone to be an act of war? I mean, blocking a port has been an act of war in the past. Changing an election outcome is probably worse.
The outcome won't change at all.
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On May 06 2017 21:05 Prothoenor wrote:
This French election leak leads to bizarre things even more obviously so than the US leak.
So if Macron broke the law, lied to the voters, or something else crucial to his ability to become president, the French media will be breaking the law if they report on it. So the idea is to elect Macron, then to depose him right away?
And hacking to influence the outcome of an election, that surely is an act of war by Russia, once again. So does this actually mean Russia and France are in wartime now? I mean, Russia does seem to have committed the same act of war again, that they also did vs the US. I have little doubts it is Russians linked to the FSB, linked to Putin, once again.
So how bad does information warfare have to get before there are real world war consequences? Or does a hack really have to kill someone to be an act of war? I mean, blocking a port has been an act of war in the past. Changing an election outcome is probably worse.
We will likely never know who perpreted the hacks, if they are even real. Russia seems likely, but again I doubt light will come to this.
And it certainly won't lead to war. For one I'm fairly confident it'll be completely ineffective. There were attacks on Macron before, mostly stuff about him being potentially gay. But we Frenchies give no fucks at all about the private life of our politicians, so really it didn't achieve anything.
At worst it'll lead to a bit of drama then fade back into nothingness.
The real bummer of this election is that someone like Marine Le Pen might gather ~40% of the votes. I find that terrifying.
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On May 06 2017 22:33 Spaylz wrote:Show nested quote +On May 06 2017 21:05 Prothoenor wrote:
This French election leak leads to bizarre things even more obviously so than the US leak.
So if Macron broke the law, lied to the voters, or something else crucial to his ability to become president, the French media will be breaking the law if they report on it. So the idea is to elect Macron, then to depose him right away?
And hacking to influence the outcome of an election, that surely is an act of war by Russia, once again. So does this actually mean Russia and France are in wartime now? I mean, Russia does seem to have committed the same act of war again, that they also did vs the US. I have little doubts it is Russians linked to the FSB, linked to Putin, once again.
So how bad does information warfare have to get before there are real world war consequences? Or does a hack really have to kill someone to be an act of war? I mean, blocking a port has been an act of war in the past. Changing an election outcome is probably worse. We will likely never know who perpreted the hacks, if they are even real. Russia seems likely, but again I doubt light will come to this. And it certainly won't lead to war. For one I'm fairly confident it'll be completely ineffective. There were attacks on Macron before, mostly stuff about him being potentially gay. But we Frenchies give no fucks at all about the private life of our politicians, so really it didn't achieve anything. At worst it'll lead to a bit of drama then fade back into nothingness. The real bummer of this election is that someone like Marine Le Pen might gather ~40% of the votes. I find that terrifying.
Percentages are insignificant given the high abstention (+ white/nulls), what matters is the number of votes. She'll probably get 12 millions (out of 47 millions registered voters), up from the 7.6 millions in the first round, but the vast majority of those new votes will come from people who hate Macron or vote by default. She convinced pretty much no one. She shot herself in the foot during the debate, proving that she was completely unable to talk to people beyond her convinced base. It's absolutely insane how useless she is, she's literally the life insurance of the established order.
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Of course this won't lead to war. And of course this won't make Le Pen wins. Both are besides the point.
Oh, and as for if Putin himself really ordered it or not, if Putin and the hackers did it properly, it will be impossible to prove. And even if it was possible to prove, people will still claim the evidence is insufficient, even when it is not. Fact remains, there is someone behind it. And it is either Russia, or China, or criminals, or random people. They aren't all a little bit true. One if true, and the others are false. And we all know which one is going to be the most likely.
The issue is if this means that Russia will hack and leak for every election in every western country, from now on. And what will be the response. And what will be the response if Russia starts to hack and leak to damage our economy. Steal trade secrets or technology. Make stock prices of companies essential to the economies of certain countries collapse. Make cars crash, or bridges collapse, or metro stations go on lockdown.
Ever since the joint US & Israel stuxnet, information warfare is an actual form of war. And the question is at what point does information warfare leak into actual warfare. Or are we going to be in perpetual limited information warfare with every geopolitical opponent?
The French election itself is spurious. In fact, even if Le Pen would win, it is not a real change. Neither Macron of Le Pen will have any major power if they are president.
User was banned for this post.
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On May 06 2017 17:43 xM(Z wrote:http://www.dw.com/en/polands-president-calls-for-constitutional-referendum/a-38725200 Show nested quote +... "It is time for a serious debate on the constitution," he said. "Not only among elites and politicians, but among the Polish people." Voters should have the chance to express whether they are satisfied with the current political system or would like to see changes, he said, adding his own perspective: "Poles and Poland have earned a new constitution."
More presidential power
A referendum could be scheduled for 2018, Duda said, in which voters would decide the roles for the president and parliament as well as which rights and freedoms should be "more strongly emphasized" as a means of defending against a privileged "caste system." It is an anti-establishment argument that parallels statements made by Kaczynski, who divides society between decent and patriotic "better" citizens and a "worse kind."
... Opposition fears authoritarian state
Experts and members of the opposition have expressed their concerns, pointing to the government's campaign against checks and balances and the country's constitutional tribunal. A PiS proposal in 2010 would have "ended the democratic and secular state, (replacing it with) an authoritarian, Catholic state," said Andrzej Halicki, a liberal politician. power grabs seem to be on the rise in the east. we have a center right president and a center left government so the power struggle gets somewhat counteracted but PSD(current gov.), is pushing hard for more power(public sector, justice, defense apparatus institutions ..etc) while using religion+nationalism to get the populus on their side.
As far as I know, Duda did not hint at giving the president more power, just removing vagueness and unnecessary overlap in the current constitution regarding competences of some of the institutions. Additionally, the role of the Senate has been debated for a long time, and so has the electoral system. DW seems to be drawing unnecessary parallels with Turkey.
If you look at the polls, Donald Tusk is leading, so PiS is not guaranteed to have Duda reelected. They would be shooting themselves in the foot, which explains the fact that they were surprised by this whole proposition.
+ Show Spoiler +
Also, that alleged quote from Kaczyński is an utter lie. I read that interview. Kaczyński was specifically talking about some of the opposition politicians who lobby for sanctions against Poland, as well as certain journalists who deliberately misrepresent the situation in Poland (e.g. by claiming that Antoni Macierewicz is creating paramilitary groups that would be used to oppress the political opposition...).
As for the opposition and their fear mongering, it's hard to take them seriously. They've cried "wolf" far too many times. They've been lamenting about PiS stripping us from our liberties since the election day, while protesting/organizing marches nearly on a weekly basis...
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On May 07 2017 00:13 Prothoenor wrote:
The French election itself is spurious. In fact, even if Le Pen would win, it is not a real change. Neither Macron of Le Pen will have any major power if they are president.
Please don't talk about things you don't know.
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I'm almost 100% sure Russia is behind these leaks.
Just have a look at twitter and facebook bots under Macron's campagin page with their broken french and Lepen tags all around with France flags, just like the fake American Trumpian bots with eagles-elder blonde women on their avatars, writing the same tweets everywhere stuff like #demsXD #MAGA and American flags again.
I don't know a republican twitter account who doesn't look like a bot, or act like one, they all are toxic somehow. France is effectively blocking their tweets within the nation.
@Amymek's tweets are blocked for example.
The funny thing is, US republicans are against the globalist agendas in theory, but they're running their own global agenda with their support to Lepen. Interesting to see their biggest concern is Islam even in France, while Trump and they are completely ignoring the threatening Russian actions. Macron team said they will retaliate this hacking attempt, let's see.
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This whole thing isn't about sovereignty anyway. It's an international far-right campaign that systemically targets country after country to destabilise and break up any non-extremist government. Just look at Farage, the guy is more involved in foreign politics than all of the 'globalists' combined.
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He's in other countries fighting against globalisation. By your logic every foreign secretary is a globalist. I understand you don't like him but you're just being silly.
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It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program. Ukip is entirely obsolete now that the UK is out of the EU, so apparently these people need to move on to the next target. It's purely destructive.
Also foreign secretaries have political mandates and they're accountable. They're not private individuals roaming around the continent trying to mess things up.
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On May 07 2017 03:20 lastpuritan wrote:
The funny thing is, US republicans are against the globalist agendas in theory, but they're running their own global agenda with their support to Lepen. Interesting to see their biggest concern is Islam even in France, while Trump and they are completely ignoring the threatening Russian actions. Macron team said they will retaliate this hacking attempt, let's see.
Russia is known for that Twitter army. If you've ever got DM'd from any of them, they use the style of broken English indicative of a native tongue in eastern Europe. So it's likely.
It's easy to see from a global look how bloated, supranational governments removed from their citizens acting on behalf of special interest get more ire from far-right (Republicans are too broad a label for anti-globalism) than autocrats that lead their country unilaterally. That pertains to globalists vs Putin. To drill down to Le Pen, US Republicans are widely critical of perceived weakness confronting assimilation from Muslim-dominant middle eastern countries at home. So you get a mostly-unknown woman to an American audience, but she's decrying the violence in stark terms, and now whatever the rest may be said about her, at least she's willing to confront extremely dodgy rhetoric.
I'm not even going to get into whether the characterizing is wrong at some deeper level. It isn't some funny contrast, it's a perfectly bland proceeding from the cultural and political divide (broadly constructed, the two sides).
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On May 07 2017 04:48 Nyxisto wrote:
It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program. Ukip is entirely obsolete now that the UK is out of the EU, so apparently these people need to move on to the next target. It's purely destructive.
Seems pretty consistent to me. Anti-globalization is mostly about opposing expanded trade agreements and supporting protectionism, which is perfectly consistent with going to other countries and promoting the same.
Working on a EU payroll is a slight more hypocritical, that much is true. But they are generally somewhat fringe and they can't be too harshly faulted for taking whatever opportunities are available to them to raise money and spread their message when most of the standard avenues of such are closed to them.
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On May 07 2017 04:48 Nyxisto wrote:
It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program. Ukip is entirely obsolete now that the UK is out of the EU, so apparently these people need to move on to the next target. It's purely destructive.
Also foreign secretaries have political mandates and they're accountable. They're not private individuals roaming around the continent trying to mess things up.
He's an MEP. Are you telling me MEPs aren't accountable? Shocking.
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On May 07 2017 06:19 bardtown wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2017 04:48 Nyxisto wrote:
It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program. Ukip is entirely obsolete now that the UK is out of the EU, so apparently these people need to move on to the next target. It's purely destructive.
Also foreign secretaries have political mandates and they're accountable. They're not private individuals roaming around the continent trying to mess things up. He's an MEP. Are you telling me MEPs aren't accountable? Shocking.
MEP's have legal immunity which obviously can be abused, see Le Pen's use of it. Farage comes in second to last in voting participation in the European parliament, takes the check and runs around to bring the EU down. I can't take this seriously.
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On May 07 2017 04:48 Nyxisto wrote:
It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program.
My, what a great reason to not have an EU in the first place. No Euro MP's going around and meddling with politics of other countries. Such behavior might help produce a backlash that would cause all kinds of havoc ... maybe even bring the organization down over time.
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Is there a specific reason why LePen is hitting Macron over his softness towards Germany. As for as I know there's no rivalry between the two, like France-Brits type. FR obviously has better army to satisfy right wingers, is it all about the economies? If she wants nationalist people to vote for her, Russia would be a better target. But for some unknown reasons to me central EU is almost fully ignoring the NATO vs RUSSIA thing while there's not a single day in the US people don't talk about it.
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On May 07 2017 07:02 Nyxisto wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2017 06:19 bardtown wrote:On May 07 2017 04:48 Nyxisto wrote:
It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program. Ukip is entirely obsolete now that the UK is out of the EU, so apparently these people need to move on to the next target. It's purely destructive.
Also foreign secretaries have political mandates and they're accountable. They're not private individuals roaming around the continent trying to mess things up. He's an MEP. Are you telling me MEPs aren't accountable? Shocking. MEP's have legal immunity which obviously can be abused, see Le Pen's use of it. Farage comes in second to last in voting participation in the European parliament, takes the check and runs around to bring the EU down. I can't take this seriously.
I have never understood legal immunity for politicians. I understand it's a protection so they can do their job and it avoids political trials. But it seems like it is abused a hell of a lot more than it helps.
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On May 07 2017 08:44 lastpuritan wrote:
Is there a specific reason why LePen is hitting Macron over his softness towards Germany. As for as I know there's no rivalry between the two, like France-Brits type. FR obviously has better army to satisfy right wingers, is it all about the economies? If she wants nationalist people to vote for her, Russia would be a better target. But for some unknown reasons to me central EU is almost fully ignoring the NATO vs RUSSIA thing while there's not a single day in the US people don't talk about it.
Russia has been quite relevant in the French elections, it hasn't been ignored at all. As for Germany, it's become fashionable for anti-EU morons to claim the EU has become the new German empire, especially after Merkel and Schauble featured prominently in the definition and negotiation of the bailouts. Merkel is a hated figure for the left in Portugal, representing the imposition of austerity measures.
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On May 07 2017 08:45 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On May 07 2017 07:02 Nyxisto wrote:On May 07 2017 06:19 bardtown wrote:On May 07 2017 04:48 Nyxisto wrote:
It's hypocritical to decry globalisation, in most of these cases be on a EU payroll because they're European MP's and then go around and meddle with politics of other countries. They're essentially just trolls that move from one place to the next, because they don't even actually have a political program. Ukip is entirely obsolete now that the UK is out of the EU, so apparently these people need to move on to the next target. It's purely destructive.
Also foreign secretaries have political mandates and they're accountable. They're not private individuals roaming around the continent trying to mess things up. He's an MEP. Are you telling me MEPs aren't accountable? Shocking. MEP's have legal immunity which obviously can be abused, see Le Pen's use of it. Farage comes in second to last in voting participation in the European parliament, takes the check and runs around to bring the EU down. I can't take this seriously. I have never understood legal immunity for politicians. I understand it's a protection so they can do their job and it avoids political trials. But it seems like it is abused a hell of a lot more than it helps.
I guess it's supposed to protect the legislature against the executive. But I agree it seems to be abused a lot. The cure is as bad (or worse) as the disease in this case.
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EPT
