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Agathon
France1505 Posts
On April 01 2017 09:17 LegalLord wrote: Not much to say about an ill-conceived union on its deathbed. The Regrexiteers failed and it won't take much more of a shock before the entire pyramid scheme falls apart. Don't be so negative. UK isn't that bad, is it? | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 01 2017 09:44 Agathon wrote: Don't be so negative. UK isn't that bad, is it? Not on its own, no. But Brexit will not be the end of the EU's woes. | ||
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Agathon
France1505 Posts
On April 01 2017 09:46 LegalLord wrote: Not on its own, no. But Brexit will not be the end of the EU's woes. Well it's debatable. People are starving in south Soudan while we're writting. EU's woes are pointless compared to their. May we even speak about woes? I don't think so. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 01 2017 09:59 Agathon wrote: Well it's debatable. People are starving in south Soudan while we're writting. EU's woes are pointless compared to their. May we even speak about woes? I don't think so. Thankfully it won't be quite South Sudan in the carcass we still refer to as the EU, but the union itself is only now starting to come to terms with the fact that it may not survive. But the solution is probably to add more Europe, closer integration, to make everyone the bestest of the bestest of the bestest of buddies, then every problem will vanish. Britain was the first to choose to leave and it's clear it's going to go through with it in the most strict sense possible (no "soft Brexit" or "Brexit in name only"). No politician is going to be foolish enough to accept the will of the people by direct vote any time soon, of course. But at this point, though the results suggest an electorally mild 2017, the populists aren't going anywhere. It's a permanently weaker union as a result of 2016 and I can't see any possibility of it surviving for the long-term. But good riddance to that abomination. | ||
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Yurie
12004 Posts
On April 01 2017 12:21 LegalLord wrote: Thankfully it won't be quite South Sudan in the carcass we still refer to as the EU, but the union itself is only now starting to come to terms with the fact that it may not survive. But the solution is probably to add more Europe, closer integration, to make everyone the bestest of the bestest of the bestest of buddies, then every problem will vanish. Britain was the first to choose to leave and it's clear it's going to go through with it in the most strict sense possible (no "soft Brexit" or "Brexit in name only"). No politician is going to be foolish enough to accept the will of the people by direct vote any time soon, of course. But at this point, though the results suggest an electorally mild 2017, the populists aren't going anywhere. It's a permanently weaker union as a result of 2016 and I can't see any possibility of it surviving for the long-term. But good riddance to that abomination. I see a large possibility of it surviving long term. Globalisation isn't a trend that is reversing and bigger unions are easier to maintain as communication improves. A thing such as the Roman Empire was in many cases self maintained states owing allegiance due to the communication distances being too long. Now a decision can be made at a central place, making larger unions without threat of military force much more viable. I see a lot of people being negative to the EU while I see it as imperfect but much better than the alternative of splintered nation states once again. Yes the EU isn't perfect but it is better than the alternative. That is something that is very often missing in the discussion regarding it, same as in most other discussions about political topics. Just as democracy is a shitty political system, while being the best we have found thus far. The biggest thing risking the EU is that people can't actually know enough people to allow acceptance of each others cultures and values. If you don't accept each other you can't get along and slowly close the gap between values towards a better mean value. Things like online school exchanges in primary school would probably be a great way to foster understanding at a low cost. Keeping current exchange programs of course but adding in a modern version of the snail mail exchanges. It will take decades to slowly normalise the EU to something most people like and don't find alien any longer. If the institutions survive another 30 years we will be having the discussion about how hard it is to dissolve since it is the status quo. I strongly hope we reach this point and show that it is possible to do. Emboldening the African Union and the classical South American ideals Bolivar had (he wasn't a good enough statesman to implement them though). Edit. If we talk near the end of my lifetime I hope people are so comfortable with the EU or whatever it is called by then to do as Scotland recently did and vote if they want to separate from their nation state with minor negative consequences. Since they would be kept in the EU they would have the major systems in place and just cut out a layer of governance between the state (not nation) and EU. This seems very frightening to a lot of people right now, so I expect it to take half a century. It is already normal in the EU to work across national borders to instead focus on ideological ones so we are slowly moving towards it. Edit 2. If I can dream I would love for a world government and get rid of all the nations, anarchy would never work so some control system is still needed. That seems to be a multi century thing though. Slowly closing the gaps between people to allow acceptance and belonging of humanity and not a tribe or nation. It makes it complicated to also wish for humans not to age or die of disease as that would also cement things in place, slowing trends. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Over the next two or more years, the Brexit negotiations will show how much the European leadership values the necessity of showing that things must stay the course and that any deviation must be met with the strictest punishment possible. After that it will be clear to all those Article 50-ists just how the Europeans deal with deserters. But the underlying causes of dissatisfaction aren't going to be erased by making more Europe, so we're stuck, aren't we? | ||
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Yurie
12004 Posts
Of course accepting in more nations will come with problems. They will even be big in the short term. Just look at how long it is taking East Germany to recover after the USSR released them. The same thing will happen as/if the EU expands into more former USSR countries such as Ukraine. Just as it did to a lesser degree for Latvia, Poland and Estonia. It works out in the long term. The problem is making people accept subsidising them on top of them becoming low wage paradises, spurring their growth. The major logical reason I can give is that we have enough wealth already (a sentence that kills any empire or country long term) to be able to even it out a bit instead of getting another car or a new phone. This hits unevenly at society even if the country doesn't become poorer, that is something very important to address and missing that is often spurring right wing views. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
As for Poland, the one that was once the golden boy of the EU, well they elected someone who the European leadership just can't quite stomach and every Pole here seems to be quite enamored with their new government while being resentful of the fact that people don't have enough respect for them. The Baltics are thankfully part of the German consensus so they will do alright for the time being - but sucks for anyone who doesn't like their "but why should we help other nations when we went through austerity (while having lots of wealthy neighbors/trade partners on their borders, which South Europe was not lucky enough to have going for them)?" Also they have a long and proud tradition of fascism but that can thankfully be swept under the rug if they don't speak too loudly about it. A Greece can be buried with a few cash infusions; it's a tiny country and who cares if you just dump its GDP's worth of money in stupid loans in its direction? Oh but none of these even compare to the disaster of corruption, paramilitary groups, ethnic conflict, and fuck knows what else that would be a Ukrainian entry. Throw a trillion dollars their way if you like; all you'll get is a couple dozen more billionaires. The moment the Europe project decided that it should be not just a community of the strongest European nations and their tiny neighbors but a trans-European union by gradual coercion, it signed its own death warrant. If it were to dissolve tomorrow then the world would be a better place for it. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18191 Posts
1. Nationalism is the bees' knees 2. Why? Because supra-national elements are ungovernable in the long term. 3. Why? Because nationalism is the bees' knees ... Yes, if you buy into that then the EU is indeed doomed. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
That the EU does seem to largely be an anti-nationalism project doesn't bode well for its survival. | ||
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
More interesting than “naked” voting intentions. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
Sounds about right for France right now from anecdotal evidence. | ||
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
In other news, unfortunately the Idea of offering an interrail pass to every 18 year old was cut short - only 5000 will be offered. That's an idea that could actually have a lasting impact on the public perception of the EU. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 01 2017 18:27 warding wrote: Nationalism hardly exists in Portugal. It's definitely not inevitable. Not in a position to judge one way or the other on this claim because I know not all that much about modern Portugal. Populism of the Western breed definitely has a strong nationalistic component to it though, and "sovereignty" is probably the core argument of Brexit. And if you look towards the Eastern European variety you will find far worse strains of nationalism that will show you just how undead it is. If nothing else, accepting all those ethnically conflicted shitholes into a political union was a mistake that the European idealists will live to regret. | ||
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
On April 01 2017 18:09 LegalLord wrote: It's definitely not fake. It exists and it's not as easily removed as you might hope. Whether or not you think national identity is a good thing, it sure as hell isn't going to go away through a slow creep of transferring sovereignty to a supranational European government body. That the EU does seem to largely be an anti-nationalism project doesn't bode well for its survival. I think that what you call 'young idealism' is in fact a working slow creep of blending national identity with a European identity. I feel just as much a European citizen as I feel Dutch. From rooting for European Dota teams to the recognition that, while I'm not nearly as familiar with the culture and languages of the eastern countries, I certainly feel that we are in the same boat, or perhaps part of the same fleet if you will. We are seeing a resurgence in national identity across the population, but I think the surge will come to a stop and then begin to recede as the older generation dies out. Just as religion is making a bit of a comeback in various ways and will recede again in the future. In both cases it will a matter of seeing how far they will go, and there might be some form of revolution as time progresses but I very much doubt that the close partnership between European countries will be dissolved. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
On April 01 2017 18:39 a_flayer wrote: I think that what you call 'young idealism' is in fact a working slow creep of blending national identity with a European identity. I feel just as much a European citizen as I feel Dutch. From rooting for European Dota teams to the recognition that, while I'm not nearly as familiar with the culture and languages of the eastern countries, I certainly feel that we are in the same boat, or perhaps part of the same fleet if you will. We are seeing a resurgence in national identity across the population, but I think the surge will come to a stop and then begin to recede as the older generation dies out. Just as religion is making a bit of a comeback in various ways and will recede again in the future. In both cases it will a matter of seeing how far they will go, and there might be some form of revolution as time progresses but I very much doubt that the close partnership between European countries will be dissolved. That "blending of identity" may not end up as permanent as you might think it to be. I speak from experience. Poorly conceived conglomerates of nations aren't a new concept. The 20th century alone has seen quite a lot of those. During their heyday, they can certainly foster a sense of shared community. But as certain realities force them apart, it tends to happen that the divisions separate them... across the lines of historical nation-states. | ||
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
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warding
Portugal2394 Posts
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