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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On March 14 2015 22:45 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2015 19:22 ImFromPortugal wrote:
What do you guys think.. will the euro keep losing value to the US dollar ? It's an agreement between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The euro will be at equal parity, 1 for 1, with the dollars, for some time, because the Fed doesn't want the european area to crash into crisis, draging the entire world with it.
is it possible for the dollar to value more than the euro soon ?
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On March 14 2015 20:01 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2015 12:31 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:BERLIN, March 14 (Reuters) - If Greece were to leave the eurozone, Spain and Italy would also end up quitting the common currency bloc, Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos told German newspaper Bild in an interview to be published on Saturday.
"If Greece explodes, Spain and Italy will be next and then at some point, Germany. We therefore need to find a way within the eurozone, but this way cannot be that the Greeks keep on having to pay," he said, according to an advance extract of the broad-ranging interview.
He also said Greece did not need a third bailout but rather "a haircut like the one Germany also got in 1953 at the London debt conference." Source Just to bring a few points to everybody's mind about Kammenos, the head of the extremely nationalistic right wing party in the Syriza coalition. He is the guy who: -within a few days of being sworn into office provoked a military incident with Turkey -threatened the rest of Europe to "flood it with fugitives" in an uncontrolled manner (he literally said islamic terrorists would be amongst them) -repeatedly claimed Jews in Greece weren't paying taxes I won't even list all the spurs against Germany he made, it's just not worth it - he is a populist par excellence. I doubt anything he said in that interview is of substance or worth getting worked up over. It would be good if overall the debate would be held in a more rational and less populistic manner.
I don't like this person at all, he's a bona fide right wing nationalist which, in my book, counts as 'friggin' idiot'. However...
-within a few days of being sworn into office provoked a military incident with Turkey
this is simply not true. Turkey made a pretty dumb move that they soon after retracted (basically wanted to reserve a rather large area in the Aegean, including populated Greek islands, for military exercises until Dec 2015, even NATO intervened and they usually don't with bilateral issues) and all the guy did after that was visit a few Greek islands.
Where did you hear that he 'caused a military incident'? Hopefully not Bild...
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On March 15 2015 03:00 ImFromPortugal wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2015 22:45 WhiteDog wrote:On March 14 2015 19:22 ImFromPortugal wrote:
What do you guys think.. will the euro keep losing value to the US dollar ? It's an agreement between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The euro will be at equal parity, 1 for 1, with the dollars, for some time, because the Fed doesn't want the european area to crash into crisis, draging the entire world with it. is it possible for the dollar to value more than the euro soon ?
Maybe but imo that would be problematic. Think about it : the commercial surplus of the euro zone is at +4 % of its GDP ! Normally the IMF would be asking the eurozone to appreciate its currency to reduce the surplus, but since we're in such shit, everybody is doing whatever they can to help us. Factually, the world is accepting an under appreciated euro.
To be clear : from an american or a chinese perspective, the european union is forcing the rest of the world to pay for its trouble. And that's effectively already true, if you take into consideration the fact that the depreciation of the euro is a decrease of the value of all debts in euros.
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To be fair the US and China have already done the same thing way earlier. The US via QE and China because they pretty much decide their own exchange rate.
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On March 15 2015 08:53 RvB wrote:
To be fair the US and China have already done the same thing way earlier. The US via QE and China because they pretty much decide their own exchange rate.
The US have a 4% commercial surplus ? And China's behavior is not an exemple.
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On March 15 2015 03:35 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2015 20:01 ACrow wrote:On March 14 2015 12:31 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:BERLIN, March 14 (Reuters) - If Greece were to leave the eurozone, Spain and Italy would also end up quitting the common currency bloc, Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos told German newspaper Bild in an interview to be published on Saturday.
"If Greece explodes, Spain and Italy will be next and then at some point, Germany. We therefore need to find a way within the eurozone, but this way cannot be that the Greeks keep on having to pay," he said, according to an advance extract of the broad-ranging interview.
He also said Greece did not need a third bailout but rather "a haircut like the one Germany also got in 1953 at the London debt conference." Source Just to bring a few points to everybody's mind about Kammenos, the head of the extremely nationalistic right wing party in the Syriza coalition. He is the guy who: -within a few days of being sworn into office provoked a military incident with Turkey -threatened the rest of Europe to "flood it with fugitives" in an uncontrolled manner (he literally said islamic terrorists would be amongst them) -repeatedly claimed Jews in Greece weren't paying taxes I won't even list all the spurs against Germany he made, it's just not worth it - he is a populist par excellence. I doubt anything he said in that interview is of substance or worth getting worked up over. It would be good if overall the debate would be held in a more rational and less populistic manner. I don't like this person at all, he's a bona fide right wing nationalist which, in my book, counts as 'friggin' idiot'. However... Show nested quote +-within a few days of being sworn into office provoked a military incident with Turkey this is simply not true. Turkey made a pretty dumb move that they soon after retracted (basically wanted to reserve a rather large area in the Aegean, including populated Greek islands, for military exercises until Dec 2015, even NATO intervened and they usually don't with bilateral issues) and all the guy did after that was visit a few Greek islands. Where did you hear that he 'caused a military incident'? Hopefully not Bild...
Oh, I wouldn't touch a Bild with a ten foot pole.
There were reports all over serious media with him flying to an uninhabited island region with a helicopter (Imia - see reports here (ger) Sueddeutsche or here (eng) Huffington Post) provoking Turkey to launch two military jets. Not commenting on how justified this territorial scrabble with a neighbor and NATO ally is (because I honestly don't know enough about the history of the Turkish-Greek conflict and this island region specifically), he very well knew that this kind of gunboat diplomacy would cause a military reaction. People who just want to pick fights don't belong into politics imho.
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On March 15 2015 23:35 ACrow wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2015 03:35 Taguchi wrote:On March 14 2015 20:01 ACrow wrote:On March 14 2015 12:31 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:BERLIN, March 14 (Reuters) - If Greece were to leave the eurozone, Spain and Italy would also end up quitting the common currency bloc, Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos told German newspaper Bild in an interview to be published on Saturday.
"If Greece explodes, Spain and Italy will be next and then at some point, Germany. We therefore need to find a way within the eurozone, but this way cannot be that the Greeks keep on having to pay," he said, according to an advance extract of the broad-ranging interview.
He also said Greece did not need a third bailout but rather "a haircut like the one Germany also got in 1953 at the London debt conference." Source Just to bring a few points to everybody's mind about Kammenos, the head of the extremely nationalistic right wing party in the Syriza coalition. He is the guy who: -within a few days of being sworn into office provoked a military incident with Turkey -threatened the rest of Europe to "flood it with fugitives" in an uncontrolled manner (he literally said islamic terrorists would be amongst them) -repeatedly claimed Jews in Greece weren't paying taxes I won't even list all the spurs against Germany he made, it's just not worth it - he is a populist par excellence. I doubt anything he said in that interview is of substance or worth getting worked up over. It would be good if overall the debate would be held in a more rational and less populistic manner. I don't like this person at all, he's a bona fide right wing nationalist which, in my book, counts as 'friggin' idiot'. However... -within a few days of being sworn into office provoked a military incident with Turkey this is simply not true. Turkey made a pretty dumb move that they soon after retracted (basically wanted to reserve a rather large area in the Aegean, including populated Greek islands, for military exercises until Dec 2015, even NATO intervened and they usually don't with bilateral issues) and all the guy did after that was visit a few Greek islands. Where did you hear that he 'caused a military incident'? Hopefully not Bild... Oh, I wouldn't touch a Bild with a ten foot pole. There were reports all over serious media with him flying to an uninhabited island region with a helicopter (Imia - see reports here (ger) Sueddeutsche or here (eng) Huffington Post) provoking Turkey to launch two military jets. Not commenting on how justified this territorial scrabble with a neighbor and NATO ally is (because I honestly don't know enough about the history of the Turkish-Greek conflict and this island region specifically), he very well knew that this kind of gunboat diplomacy would cause a military reaction. People who just want to pick fights don't belong into politics imho.
Ah I see. Way overblown, as should be apparent by these sum figures - this is a Greek source so you shouldn't necessarily pay as much attention to these being violations (I think international law sides with Greece but I'm no expert and, naturally, I've only seen the Greek point of view) as to the total number of incidents - note that the number of interception engagements is very small in 2014, in 2009 it was a couple hundred!
Some officers did die there, after all. It's only natural for DefMin to pay a visit (actually a fly-by with helicopter, dropped a wreath, never landed there or planted any flags and so on). It's also a fact that it's the first DefMin visit to the area since 1996 but this has been a mark of shame for Greek politicians for a long time now.
But yeah, no biggie considering the daily routine :p
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On March 15 2015 08:53 RvB wrote:
To be fair the US and China have already done the same thing way earlier. The US via QE and China because they pretty much decide their own exchange rate.
on the contrary. America continues to heroically run trade deficits so the rest of you can export your way out of trouble. If the US was truly selfish the'yd be guarding their spending-happy populace like the last golden goose because thats what they are.
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Don’t pass new anti-poverty law, commission tells Greece
At less than 24 hours’ notice the European Commission has vetoed a key law set to be passed by the Greek parliament tomorrow.
The so-called “humanitarian crisis bill” was set to provide free electricity for some households, and address poverty among pensioners and homeless families.
But in a communication seen by Channel 4 News, Declan Costello, director at the EC’s directorate for economic and financial affairs, has ordered the radical left-led coalition governemnt in Greece to stop. A planned law to allow tax arrears to be paid in instalments, set before the Greek parliament on Thursday, has also been vetoed...
source
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On March 18 2015 02:37 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2015 08:53 RvB wrote:
To be fair the US and China have already done the same thing way earlier. The US via QE and China because they pretty much decide their own exchange rate.
on the contrary. America continues to heroically run trade deficits so the rest of you can export your way out of trouble. If the US was truly selfish the'yd be guarding their spending-happy populace like the last golden goose because thats what they are.
The US has been, throughout history, a responsible hegemon.
On March 18 2015 03:11 accela wrote:Show nested quote +Don’t pass new anti-poverty law, commission tells Greece
At less than 24 hours’ notice the European Commission has vetoed a key law set to be passed by the Greek parliament tomorrow.
The so-called “humanitarian crisis bill” was set to provide free electricity for some households, and address poverty among pensioners and homeless families.
But in a communication seen by Channel 4 News, Declan Costello, director at the EC’s directorate for economic and financial affairs, has ordered the radical left-led coalition governemnt in Greece to stop. A planned law to allow tax arrears to be paid in instalments, set before the Greek parliament on Thursday, has also been vetoed... source
... this Europe is lost really.
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What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
And then do the same for every other EU country that can't afford to support its own homeless and so on.
Alas, even humanitarian spending must be considered as wasteful these days - at least compared to saving bankrupt banks and idiotic governments from their own mistakes, that is.
SYRIZA is moving forward with the bills regardless, however.
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The European dream is certainly dead.
Is Greece going to audit the debt ?
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A parliamentary committee has been formed that's supposed to audit the debt... how close to a 'yes' that is, I don't know :p
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On March 18 2015 07:49 Taguchi wrote:
What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
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I am pretty sure the EU already provide significant funds as a matter of course -- that is on top of the bailout funds no?
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On March 18 2015 09:54 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 07:49 Taguchi wrote:
What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
. I am pretty sure the EU already provide significant funds as a matter of course -- that is on top of the bailout funds no?
Not for the people this particular bill is targetted at they don't.
Also, Greece has had a primary surplus for a couple years now - 'bailout' funds go to creditors, not to paying off other state obligations.
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On March 18 2015 10:09 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 09:54 Sub40APM wrote:On March 18 2015 07:49 Taguchi wrote:
What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
. I am pretty sure the EU already provide significant funds as a matter of course -- that is on top of the bailout funds no? Not for the people this particular bill is targetted at they don't. Also, Greece has had a primary surplus for a couple years now - 'bailout' funds go to creditors, not to paying off other state obligations.
The current Greek finance minister disagrees: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/04/24/greek-statistics-are-back-primary-deficit-presented-as-surplus-with-eurostats-seal-of-approval/
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On March 18 2015 10:09 Taguchi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 09:54 Sub40APM wrote:On March 18 2015 07:49 Taguchi wrote:
What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
. I am pretty sure the EU already provide significant funds as a matter of course -- that is on top of the bailout funds no? Not for the people this particular bill is targetted at they don't. Also, Greece has had a primary surplus for a couple years now - 'bailout' funds go to creditors, not to paying off other state obligations.
If Greece had a primary surplus they could just default, or threaten default, knowing that they continue to pay for whatever they wanted, and that they only way to force them to actually pay is through military action. Now that is a DRASTIC simplification, but it fundamentally is why they are actually still in a terrible negotiating position.
They need access to the capital markets and its not even a question.
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On March 18 2015 17:55 cLutZ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 10:09 Taguchi wrote:On March 18 2015 09:54 Sub40APM wrote:On March 18 2015 07:49 Taguchi wrote:
What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
. I am pretty sure the EU already provide significant funds as a matter of course -- that is on top of the bailout funds no? Not for the people this particular bill is targetted at they don't. Also, Greece has had a primary surplus for a couple years now - 'bailout' funds go to creditors, not to paying off other state obligations. If Greece had a primary surplus they could just default, or threaten default, knowing that they continue to pay for whatever they wanted, and that they only way to force them to actually pay is through military action. Now that is a DRASTIC simplification, but it fundamentally is why they are actually still in a terrible negotiating position. They need access to the capital markets and its not even a question.
Greece is running primary surplus or at least doesn't have a deficit. The thing is that f.m Varoufakis (and many others) is still right that the kind of primary surplus Greece achieved through the IMF/EU program is still of the worst quality achieved through shutting down so much needed infrastructures like hospitals, schools, universities, stop paying wages and massive layoffs plus some good old cooking of the books like only EU knows to do.
The thing is that even with such a huge sucrificies Greece can barely pay it's own needs while there is a massive debt hugely increased since 2009. Until 2030 Greece have obligations of 140billions, so for the next 15 years Greece must be running an average surplus of 9billions per years which is impossible.
For the moment, at least in public, EU (read Germany) shows an obvious inability to accept the fact that the greek debt is impossible to be payed back in time and as a whole. On the other hand the greek people according to the polls still wish to keep the euro currency (although i suspect that there must be an increase of people against euro lately).
So even if IMHO a declaration of default and one sided massive haircut up to the point that Greece would have a sustainable surplus is the only realistic solution sadly we'll just keep kicking the can.
At least in the meantime Syriza rolling back some of the deforms imposed by the bailout programs would relieve some of the suffering while keep hoping for some change of the political environment in EU through this year's elections.
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On March 18 2015 15:57 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On March 18 2015 10:09 Taguchi wrote:On March 18 2015 09:54 Sub40APM wrote:On March 18 2015 07:49 Taguchi wrote:
What they should have done, if they thought the government couldn't afford the 200mln to provide food, housing and electricity to tens of thousands of people hit by extreme poverty, would be to ask that the Commission bears the burden of this particular expense as an act of respecting fellow human beings.
. I am pretty sure the EU already provide significant funds as a matter of course -- that is on top of the bailout funds no? Not for the people this particular bill is targetted at they don't. Also, Greece has had a primary surplus for a couple years now - 'bailout' funds go to creditors, not to paying off other state obligations. The current Greek finance minister disagrees: http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2014/04/24/greek-statistics-are-back-primary-deficit-presented-as-surplus-with-eurostats-seal-of-approval/
Right, the surplus is a concoction achieved through internal switcheroos. Doesn't mean any outsider is funding anything, simply means the government owes other state entities money. Bailout funds go to creditors. Simple enough?
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EPT
