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if you'd factor in the israelis there it might make more sense.
US split was/is caused by zionist israelis and pro two-state-solution israelis; you put the later with Obama and the liberal EU and the former with Trump and the conservative/populist EU and go from there.
there's a meeting on the 28, the EU-Israel Association Council is to meet in Brussels and the two state solution could go bye-bye.
israelis are a major player on the world scene and should be acknowledged as such; they've started plays in Balkans/E-Europe for quite some time now.
there are snippets here and there about Israel's involvement in the Balkans ranging from all forms of cultural, social, financial and military cooperation to illegal arms deals like:
https://972mag.com/israels-involvement-in-bosnian-genocide-to-remain-under-wraps/123503/ Israel’s Supreme Court last month rejected a petition to reveal details of Israeli defense exports to the former Yugoslavia during the genocide in Bosnia in the 1990s. The court ruled that exposing Israeli involvement in genocide would damage the country’s foreign relations to such an extent that it would outweigh the public interest in knowing that information, and the possible prosecution of those involved.
The petitioners, Attorney Itay Mack and Professor Yair Oron, presented the court with concrete evidence of Israeli defense exports to Serbian forces at the time, including training as well as ammunition and rifles. Among other things, they presented the personal journal of General Ratko Mladić, currently on trial at the International Court of Justice for committing war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Mladić’s journal explicitly mentions Serbia’s ample arms ties with Israel at the time.
The exports took place long after the UN Security Council placed an arms embargo on various parts of the former Yugoslavia, and after the publication of a series of testimonies exposing genocide and the creation of concentration camps.
The Israeli State Attorney’s reply and the court’s rejection of the petition are a de facto admission by Israel that it cooperated with the Bosnian genocide: if the government had nothing to hide, the documents under discussion would not pose any threat to foreign relations.
- on the "Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, and the mountainous Sandzak region" + Iran link: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/iran-balkans-history-and-forecast
- on the overall historical importance of the Balkans: http://www.mayimmagazine.com/single-post/2015/03/16/WHY-THE-BALKAN-STATES-ARE-IMPORTANT-TO-ISRAEL
- parts of political and economical strategies: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-josef-olmert/netanyahu-balkans-_b_1294649.html
- on overall interests in the region: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/11/understanding_the_israelibalkans_strategic_partnership.html
if situations turn within EU, Israel alone could have enough weight to turn the whole Balkan region into another Middle East warfest(if any dumb things are started by US - EU -Russia).
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Israel pissing over Europe's interest by allying with Serbia against the Muslims isn't that unexpected given their attitude to world, but it was a pretty bold move anyway. I am not really sure that they should value some local agendas against good relationships with major European powers. Surely, having the US hold their hand might have always seemed good enough, but is that to be taken for granted forever?
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Though it's somewhat gradual a process, by now Israel has seen that it will not be able to rely on the US forever. It's moved closer to Russia and China, among others, hoping for some additional support. But that walks a fine line.
As far as Israel is concerned, though, Europe can just go fuck itself, so whatever.
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On February 20 2017 02:12 LegalLord wrote:
As far as Israel is concerned, though, Europe can just go fuck itself, so whatever.
Has there been an official declaration of this stance by Israel?  Surely, Israel is not very happy about EU's pro-Palestinean stances, but they are even an associated member, there are trade agreements and all sorts of cooperation. There are also many ties at "not state" level. In general, Israel is almost unequocially seen in Europe as the most relatable country in the whole region and a natural ally and I have a hard time imagining that Israel just disregards the possibility of help from Europe in case things get heated for some reason.
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On February 20 2017 02:20 opisska wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2017 02:12 LegalLord wrote:
As far as Israel is concerned, though, Europe can just go fuck itself, so whatever. Has there been an official declaration of this stance by Israel? Surely, Israel is not very happy about EU's pro-Palestinean stances, but they are even an associated member, there are trade agreements and all sorts of cooperation. There are also many ties at "not state" level. In general, Israel is almost unequocially seen in Europe as the most relatable country in the whole region and a natural ally and I have a hard time imagining that Israel just disregards the possibility of help from Europe in case things get heated for some reason.
Obviously it's hyperbole to say that Europe is to be disregarded. But "Europe" is the least reliable partner one could hope for, anti-Semitism is still huge in Europe, and in general it's not particularly sympathetic to Israel. I wouldn't put my trust in Europe if I were Israel.
Endless UN resolutions, embargoes, and reneged contracts don't help with trust.
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On February 19 2017 22:38 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2017 00:46 RvB wrote:
Most NATO countries don't need their defense now. There are only a couple countries realistically in danger. Where the US is necessary is in foreign adventures. But then again we could just not help the US with some of their priorities if they don't help Europe (like Iranian sanctions which disproportionately affect Europe). The US military is not necessary in Europe. Even today, with our minimalist spending on defence, Europe has a combined standing force that outnumbers and outspends that of the Russians (which is the supposed threat, right?). They have 1 million active personnel and spend 65.6 billion USD, we have nearly two million and spend $226.73 billion. And that's with the Russians spending a solid 3% more of their economy on defence. They should be spending some of that money and their engineering talents on something more useful that could benefit both Europe and Russia. Forming an independent European defence group and effectively kicking the US military out of Europe/NATO could be a way towards finding an agreement with Russia to have them reduce their military and vastly improve relations, and bolster economic growth for both Russia and Europe through trade and infrastructure. Sanctions on Iran disproportionately affect Europe, and the same is true for sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, both Iran and Russia can help supply Europe with energy while we make the slow transition into renewables, and I think the best (cheapest) way to get that energy is by effectively ignoring the US. Show nested quote +On February 19 2017 00:52 LegalLord wrote:
Everything the US does seems to disproportionately affect Europe. One of the perks of being two oceans away from the problem regions of the world I suppose. Quite frankly, I doubt the Syrian crisis would have erupted in the way it did if the US hadn't invaded Iraq. Assad wouldn't have felt as pressured to solidify his hold on the regime without the militant Sunni uprising in the neighbouring country bleeding over into his own country. It was only made worse by the US and her allies (SA) supporting the Sunni opposition financially and with the supply of weapons. People blame Russia for supporting the far-right groups, but they started on their own accord and only grew in numbers through the very real and widely reported on Syrian refugee crisis and the so-called rise of terrorism. Both of these are, in my opinion, the result of US policy in the Middle East. Fake or exaggerated reporting may have played some part in making the perception of it worse, but that's hardly the only problem. As a whole, to me, it looks like the US is perfectly fine with breaking up Europe both as a result of their foreign policy in the Middle East, and the fact that Pence didn't mention support for the EU once in his speech, only talked about the military. The election of Trump has made it abundantly clear in my eyes that the US does not care about Europe other than using it as a puppet to further their own agenda.
The point of NATO isn't to make sure that a united Europe can defend against invading Russians, but to make sure that invasion does not occur at all. The point of NATO is to make sure that escalation never occurs by the Russians invading small bits of a bordering country at a time (sound familiar?) and so the opportunity for nuclear war never occurs. The prime purpose of NATO fails as soon as one member gets invaded, regardless of actual defence budgets.
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Many in Israel would consider it to be a part of Europe, at least culturally. I think it's fair to say there is close cooperation between Israel and the serious military forces in Europe, too.
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On February 20 2017 02:25 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2017 02:20 opisska wrote:On February 20 2017 02:12 LegalLord wrote:
As far as Israel is concerned, though, Europe can just go fuck itself, so whatever. Has there been an official declaration of this stance by Israel? Surely, Israel is not very happy about EU's pro-Palestinean stances, but they are even an associated member, there are trade agreements and all sorts of cooperation. There are also many ties at "not state" level. In general, Israel is almost unequocially seen in Europe as the most relatable country in the whole region and a natural ally and I have a hard time imagining that Israel just disregards the possibility of help from Europe in case things get heated for some reason. Obviously it's hyperbole to say that Europe is to be disregarded. But "Europe" is the least reliable partner one could hope for, anti-Semitism is still huge in Europe, and in general it's not particularly sympathetic to Israel. I wouldn't put my trust in Europe if I were Israel. Endless UN resolutions, embargoes, and reneged contracts don't help with trust.
Because the only reason people oppose Israel is anti-Semitism and not at all because of the terrible stuff they have done to the Palestinians.
And no the war going on is not an excuse for their actions.
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On February 20 2017 02:28 bardtown wrote:
Many in Israel would consider it to be a part of Europe, at least culturally. I think it's fair to say there is close cooperation between Israel and the serious military forces in Europe, too.
The problem Israel will be facing in coming years is that they have active conflicts with Muslims which is a growing portion of European populations. If you check anti-Semitism in Europe the native population often has a much lower rate (above 0 isn't acceptable though) than people moving into the countries. This means that Israel is at risk of losing European support even more than they currently have.
The policies of Israel aren't very popular even among those that can't be considered anti-Semitic. Leading to little resistance to a changed government response. The thing most want is a stop to the hostilities and expansion of Israel at the expense of the Palestinian population. I am not sure that happening will matter in the medium term though, so the current line might be best for Israel.
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On February 20 2017 02:10 opisska wrote:
Israel pissing over Europe's interest by allying with Serbia against the Muslims isn't that unexpected given their attitude to world, but it was a pretty bold move anyway. I am not really sure that they should value some local agendas against good relationships with major European powers. Surely, having the US hold their hand might have always seemed good enough, but is that to be taken for granted forever? they could always trade with Russia spheres of influence in Balkans vs spheres of influence in the Middle East(Golan, E-Syria, etc) if EU and US leaves them hanging.
still, the Israel + Cyprus gas field in the Mediterranean(Levantine Sea) looks pretty sweet for EU.
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On February 20 2017 02:25 LegalLord wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2017 02:20 opisska wrote:On February 20 2017 02:12 LegalLord wrote:
As far as Israel is concerned, though, Europe can just go fuck itself, so whatever. Has there been an official declaration of this stance by Israel? Surely, Israel is not very happy about EU's pro-Palestinean stances, but they are even an associated member, there are trade agreements and all sorts of cooperation. There are also many ties at "not state" level. In general, Israel is almost unequocially seen in Europe as the most relatable country in the whole region and a natural ally and I have a hard time imagining that Israel just disregards the possibility of help from Europe in case things get heated for some reason. Obviously it's hyperbole to say that Europe is to be disregarded. But "Europe" is the least reliable partner one could hope for, anti-Semitism is still huge in Europe, and in general it's not particularly sympathetic to Israel. I wouldn't put my trust in Europe if I were Israel. Endless UN resolutions, embargoes, and reneged contracts don't help with trust.
The anti-Semitism in Europe is mainly hugely overplayed. Moreover, from what I observed from "watching the common folk" (that is, bravely visiting discussion on public fora and social media) in my country the recent surge in hate against Muslims initiated by the "immigrant crisis" has really increased the number of Israeli supporters, as Israel is now admired in their bravery fighting against the evils of Islam. I am not saying that anti-Semitism doesn't exist at all - certain kinds of people just love to hate and Jews are a well-tried target, but unless there is a whole other world I am not seeing in countries behind language barrier, it's not really a mainstream thing anywhere. One possible problem in reporting anti-Semitism is that many Israeli supporters are very quick to label anyone who doesn't agree with Israeli policies as an anti-Semite - happens to me all really every time I dare to discuss Israel online (for some people, just saying that you don't support the settlers is henious anti-Semitism).
I do not really agree that "Europe" is the least reliable partner. Yes, it's fractured and not that easy to read, but that's also a big benefit, because as a heterogeneous entity, it's much less liable to huge swings than the US, where you just elect a new government and ... shit happens. Well, this time, the shit is actually pretty favourable to Israel, but that's not granted.
Most importantly, even though there is always big speech about principles and historical rights, Israel has always been pretty pragmatic in their quest to not cease to exist and I just find it hard to believe that some resolutions and declarative acts by EU states are more important for them than all the practical use Europe can have. But then again, they seem to actually have done this thing with Serbia, so this gives some mixed signals.
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Shit like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Project
doesn't do much to engender trust between Israel and "Europe." From either side, actually.
As far as anti-Semitism goes. I'm not sure which country you mean by "your country." If you mean Czechoslovakia, then possibly. If you mean Pole Land... well they have their ugly side. To their credit they weren't particularly complicit in the Holocaust (some others were far worse, and far less apologetic about their role there) but anti-Semitism is still a significant factor in Poland.
As far as the three non-European allies go, they generally are probably better for Israel and that's my main point. The US is a historic ally of Israel and goes without saying. Russia under Putin has felt that it neglected the Russian Jews too much in the past (USSR era) and that genuine outreach efforts to Israel are necessary (the two are much friendlier than they used to be but they also tend to be on opposing sides of conflicts). And China just doesn't have as much bad blood with Israel as most, even if they're not particularly friendly either - back during the diaspora, there was a small but notable part of the Jewish population that went to live in China and... nothing happened, they lived just fine. Europe tends to be much less sympathetic in general.
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On February 20 2017 03:00 LegalLord wrote:Shit like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Projectdoesn't do much to engender trust between Israel and "Europe." From either side, actually. As far as anti-Semitism goes. I'm not sure which country you mean by "your country." If you mean Czechoslovakia, then possibly. If you mean Pole Land... well they have their ugly side. To their credit they weren't particularly complicit in the Holocaust (some others were far worse, and far less apologetic about their role there) but anti-Semitism is still a significant factor in Poland. As far as the three non-European allies go, they generally are probably better for Israel and that's my main point. The US is a historic ally of Israel and goes without saying. Russia under Putin has felt that it neglected the Russian Jews too much in the past (USSR era) and that genuine outreach efforts to Israel are necessary (the two are much friendlier than they used to be but they also tend to be on opposing sides of conflicts). And China just doesn't have as much bad blood with Israel as most, even if they're not particularly friendly either - back during the diaspora, there was a small but notable part of the Jewish population that went to live in China and... nothing happened, they lived just fine. Europe tends to be much less sympathetic in general.
China also has no interest in sending Israel large bags of money, or to aid them military. They give Israel nothing that they need.
Russia would make more sense, they also wouldn't complain about the occupation of the West Bank or Golan Heights.
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I meant Czech Republic. Will you stop saying Czechoslovakia already? It's year twenty four and counting I heard Poland is worse, that's true, but can't really comment on it personally as I have not enough experience from here. However what I know is that saying "Poles weren't particularly complicit in Holocaust" here would net you some punches, the casual inclusion of Poles in the extermination project is still a flaring wound in the nation and a big hurdle in Poland-Germany relations.
If you want to speak about non-trustworthy allies, would you really trust China with anything? Is there any indication that China isn't going to dump any distant ally at the earliest convenience? I always thought they operate pretty much based only on their own gains.
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On February 20 2017 03:09 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2017 03:00 LegalLord wrote:Shit like this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Projectdoesn't do much to engender trust between Israel and "Europe." From either side, actually. As far as anti-Semitism goes. I'm not sure which country you mean by "your country." If you mean Czechoslovakia, then possibly. If you mean Pole Land... well they have their ugly side. To their credit they weren't particularly complicit in the Holocaust (some others were far worse, and far less apologetic about their role there) but anti-Semitism is still a significant factor in Poland. As far as the three non-European allies go, they generally are probably better for Israel and that's my main point. The US is a historic ally of Israel and goes without saying. Russia under Putin has felt that it neglected the Russian Jews too much in the past (USSR era) and that genuine outreach efforts to Israel are necessary (the two are much friendlier than they used to be but they also tend to be on opposing sides of conflicts). And China just doesn't have as much bad blood with Israel as most, even if they're not particularly friendly either - back during the diaspora, there was a small but notable part of the Jewish population that went to live in China and... nothing happened, they lived just fine. Europe tends to be much less sympathetic in general. China also has no interest in sending Israel large bags of money, or to aid them military. They give Israel nothing that they need. Russia would make more sense, they also wouldn't complain about the occupation of the West Bank or Golan Heights.
China is one of those side-allies, a decent partner for cooperation that can be useful but isn't particularly critical nor demanding.
Russia is in fact pretty in line with Europe on the Palestine issue. But there are also a lot of shared interests, and Russia is best positioned to negotiate with Israel's enemies (Iran most notably), so there is a lot to be gained from cooperation. There's a reason Israel essentially decided to sit out the Crimea/Ukraine situation and not take sides, even when pressured.
US remains Israel's most important ally, while Europe is kind of a tough one to make peace with due to its conflicted nature on many fronts.
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On February 20 2017 03:10 opisska wrote:I meant Czech Republic. Will you stop saying Czechoslovakia already? It's year twenty four and counting I heard Poland is worse, that's true, but can't really comment on it personally as I have not enough experience from here. However what I know is that saying "Poles weren't particularly complicit in Holocaust" here would net you some punches, the casual inclusion of Poles in the extermination project is still a flaring wound in the nation and a big hurdle in Poland-Germany relations.
Let me put it in a way that is a little more specific, but not necessarily more flattering. The Poles did not have the widespread, eager and willing collaboration with the Holocaust that is an ugly staple of certain other nations in East Europe. But that is not out of any sympathy for the Jews. The Poles hate the Jews quite a bit.
On February 20 2017 03:10 opisska wrote:
If you want to speak about non-trustworthy allies, would you really trust China with anything? Is there any indication that China isn't going to dump any distant ally at the earliest convenience? I always thought they operate pretty much based only on their own gains.
I would trust China about as far as I could throw Manhattan. But I trust their credits and raw resources as good as any others. The basis of any relation with China is purely transactional. And I'd say that's true on behalf of Russia as well, whether or not the government is willing to admit it to be so.
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Brilliant, trucks are now banned during carnival in Cologne. Finally intelligence agencies figured out the real problem! It's trucks above 6.5 tonnes that are the issue. About time we banned assault trucks.
In unrelated news: Merkel urges the EU to take in more Muslims.
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On February 20 2017 02:25 LegalLord wrote:
But "Europe" is the least reliable partner one could hope for, anti-Semitism is still huge in Europe, and in general it's not particularly sympathetic to Israel. I wouldn't put my trust in Europe if I were Israel.
Endless UN resolutions, embargoes, and reneged contracts don't help with trust.
Those resolutions and embargoes aren't coming out of Europe. Several European countries are among Israel's best allies. And beyond Europe and some former British colonies, Israel just doesn't have a lot of good friends.
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On February 20 2017 04:49 DickMcFanny wrote:
Brilliant, trucks are now banned during carnival in Cologne. Finally intelligence agencies figured out the real problem! It's trucks above 6.5 tonnes that are the issue. About time we banned assault trucks.
In unrelated news: Merkel urges the EU to take in more Muslims.
What do you propose they do instead to secure the carnival?
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It's almost like they have different ideas and priorities than you do?
Incidentally, nobody thinks the Russians are planning on rolling tanks into Paris. Mind you, if the US/UK sat the fight out, the Russians would have a good chance of beating the rest of Europe. There are a lot of factors, including a far more militaristic culture, established systems of conscription (in wartime they'd draw up 2 million reservists instantly and arm them with the nation-sized arms warehouse that is Russia), and rough parity of numbers (your 2 million figure overstates the EU's strength by 600,000, and includes the UK's 150,000 to boot).
The far more likely scenario is more of what we've seen; Putin keeps testing the edges of the West, and sees what he can get away with. If NATO dissolves, can he grab Estonia and dare anyone to invade him to take it back? If isolationist, Russia-friendly governments become common in Europe, could he credibly take a chunk of Poland?
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EPT
