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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 668

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
February 17 2017 12:46 GMT
#13341
On February 17 2017 19:35 opisska wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 19:24 TheDwf wrote:
On February 17 2017 16:13 LegalLord wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

I just don't see a clear trend for where they went. Fillon clearly dropped but Le Pen gained very slightly and Macron didn't budge.

On February 17 2017 15:12 LegalLord wrote:
Where did the Fillon voters go? I see Fillon dropping in the polls but I see no clear trend in who gained from it.

To abstention/null (2.5), Macron (2.5), Le Pen (0.5) and Dupont-Aignan (0.5). Numbers are from yesterday's big poll when compared with its former version the previous month.

On February 17 2017 18:07 Big J wrote:
On February 17 2017 03:58 LightSpectra wrote:
The Fillon scandal is a perfect example of why a parliamentary system is superior to a presidential one. People affiliated with Les Républicains are either forced to vote against their party or vote for a corrupt guy. If instead the Head of Government were selected by a majority vote in the legislature, then Fillon could easily be shuffled out at this stage and replaced by somebody who sucks less.

Le Pen's polarized popularity is a perfect example of why elections should be decided by instant-runoffs or the Condorcet method, not FPTP (even if it's two-round). Two-thirds of the country desperately hates her, but she's going to have a real shot of winning because her opponents are unpopular and fractured.

If I were French I'd probably vote for Hamon.


I do not think this makes much of a difference, the problem is that you cannot really switch candidates at that stage properly. You create a scenario in which the public perceives the new frontrunner as a second tier candidate, and the corruption case as proven, which still sheds a bad light on your party. Additionally, the followes who think that Fillion is not guilty, or what he did is not a big thing, will be angry with the party, which may lead to internal trouble and these voters boycotting the new party candidate nevertheless.

On the flip side, creating a parliamentary system that decides the executive system is quite a dirty type of democracy in my opinion. It becomes a party dictatorship. The parliament basically just becomes a chamber that does whatever the ruling party leaders decide. In my opinion there should always be at least two powerful and serperately elected organs in the decision making process.

This... is exactly what we have in France right now, out of a presidential system. The irony when you remember that De Gaulle wanted the Vth Republic to break with the tyranny of parties...

It's a structural design weakness with the representative system; députés are both representative of the nation and members of a party, but ultimately the party has much more coercitive power over the député than voters. The result is that députés routinely “forget” their mandate to follow the party line.


Isn't the problem actually a symptom of the presidential system, not the parliamentary one? The presidential system has strong propensity to put a single party into a focus, because the party that wins the president gets enormously strong and no small party has any real chance to talk to presidential elections, because you can't win "a little" - thus this naturally forces the system into the domination of 2, at best 3 major parties and that then reflects inevitably in the parliamentary elections, because those are done by the same voters, in the same social atmosphere and media coverage.

Yeah, it's definitely made worse by the archaic institutions of the Vth Republic, and the even worse presidential into legislative calendar (plus there's no proportional in the legislative, so our system is even more “winner takes all”); but even in a parliamentary regime you can run into “discipline party vs popular mandate” issues, if only because the representatives are not the represented. The average sociological profile of a député in France is an old white male from the upper classes (generally bound to the party for decades), while the society is of course much more diverse.

The Fillon case is another example of a similar kind of “dilemma”: loyalty to the party vs public demand for probity. And here again, for now, loyalty to the party is winning...
stilt
Profile Joined October 2012
France2749 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-17 13:41:44
February 17 2017 13:37 GMT
#13342
On February 17 2017 21:43 nitram wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 21:25 TheDwf wrote:
A nice conversation was going on, then Team Islamobsessed happened...

The spread of Islam in the west is an enormous issue. How dare you minimalism it.
Hey, how does Paris look? Does it look like the capital of European culture or does it look like a trashcan?


It is full of smug guys like thedwf, that's quite terrible actually. Paris spreads now the cultural hegemony of the the international bourgeoisie which is a concentration of a scornfull and patronalizing feeling toward the rest of the ppl. No wonder why that there is angryness, u got fired and then a little brat born in the silk talks about how priviligied and racist you are.
Strangers are not the problem, but our so-called elites with their ultra liberalism which destroys our economy and social link are.
That's like "immigration is a chance" oh yeah, how great this condition is for the immigrant! How great this is to have millions of ppl who flees misery and war and how cool this is for the workers of our countries who will suffer of the dumping social and fracturates even more a shattered society. (seriously, think about a common point between me and thedwf lol, we have the same nationality, that's all and currenty, this means absolutely nothing)
Immigration is not a chance but a problem who must be resorbed at the source (the country from where they flee) but why would it be? Our elites have no interest in that (a shattered society would not be able be weakened against economical liberalism) and to be fair, the mess they created seems really inextricable right now.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
February 17 2017 13:46 GMT
#13343
On February 17 2017 20:48 opisska wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 20:42 Big J wrote:
My point is less about parliamentary or presidential systems, which in essence only describes where the majority of power lies. My point is about having a system with an independent government and an independent parliament.


But that is still the same point. For the government to be independent, is must be elected independently and not "report" to the parliament (in the sense of being removable at any time). So you essentially have the same two options - one when the government is installed by the parliament and one when it is somehow elected directly (presumably by electing its head or someone with a sole power to appoint it). Then there is the question about the exact distribution of "power" which can be varied regardless of the chosen election mechanism (regulated by how many things need legislative action), sure. But in principle, the "independent government" scenario will always create the same issue - that you elect it in a "all or nothing" scenario.



On February 17 2017 21:04 Acrofales wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 20:42 Big J wrote:
My point is less about parliamentary or presidential systems, which in essence only describes where the majority of power lies. My point is about having a system with an independent government and an independent parliament.

But isn't that exactly the point? In a presidential system, there is 1 president who forms his government. While he could, in theory, draw his ministers from a coalition, in practice he simply appoints ministers from his own party (or outsider experts who nevertheless have the same vision for the country as the president and his party). This government has to work with a parliament that may be hostile, or not, depending on the balance of power in parliament. In France this has worked fairly well recently, whereas in the US, there were 6 years of gridlock.

In a parliamentary system, the parties in parliament get together to find a coalition that is willing to govern together. This means they will *always* have a majority in parliament and thus do not have to worry about not getting things done, but the negotiation is done in government: having multiple governing together can cause friction, and only small parts of any party's program being executed.

There are of course, mixes of the two: England has a first-past-the-post parliamentary system that systematically gives one party a majority in parliament, which means they have almost carte blanche to implement their vision (until the next elections come along, anyway).



A few points:
-) Who says it has to be a single president that you elect as executive power? Why not think a bit more complicated, have various posts with various candidates in an election?
-) Switzerland does have a system, in which the ministers are asigned by parliament but they cannot be removed. Similar for the USA: Their congress and senate, despite being only a two party system, does have quite a few members that are absolutely not in-line with government interests.
-) Obama, despite not having a majority to back him, still left quite a mark. I've seen reports that said that he was able to push through around 70% of his agenda.
-) The European parliament, which is hardly connected to the European commission is another good example of an independent legislative power. Although there are still coalitions possible, they tend to be much more loose and them breaking does not kill the executive power, necessary to run and represent the EU. As we have just witnessed with S&D and EVP... and why did that coalition break again? Because S&D didn't want to give all the 3 representative posts in the EU to the EVP. If same thing had happened in an intervined legilsative executive system, there would immidiately have to be elections.

So in conclusion I believe the most stable, best representative system, that allows but also forces the opposition to work somewhat constructively, is one in which there is no set-in-stone coalition in the most important organ of a democracy, the parliament. If you have a fixed coalition bound to a government, you get party rule with the opposition having no power but a free pass to pretend, that they have no responsibility whatsoever.
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6204 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-17 14:03:53
February 17 2017 14:01 GMT
#13344
On February 17 2017 20:54 farvacola wrote:
So some here are saying that Trump's embarrassing first weeks as president have served as a warning signal throughout much of the Western world in terms of what happens when alt-right populism comes to power. WaPo seems to think that Schulz is going through a period of ascendancy in Germany right now partially for that reason. Does this sentiment hold any water?

Not really. They're way overestimating the influence of foreign politicians / events on national politics. Wilders got a little bump after Trumps election which already disappeared. In general people don't care a lot as long as it doesn't effect them.
Just turn it around: how much of an effect do you think Brexit had on the US elections? Probably close to 0.

Edit: In addition why would Schulz in particular benefit from it? Merkel should benefit from such an effect just as much if not more.
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4782 Posts
February 17 2017 14:04 GMT
#13345
On February 17 2017 20:55 bardtown wrote:
Parliament: Danes Should Not Become the Minority in Denmark
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-danes-not-become-minority-denmark/
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-adopts-declaration-barring-muslim-majority-neighborhoods/

Any Danes here who can expand on this? It is only being reported by far right media who I'm sure are overblowing its importance.


I'm not sure what you want more info about? I think the general agreement is that a good definition of a Dane is very hard to come by (which has been a major point of contention for this bill), yet there are some very obvious ghettos which we have tried for years to dismantle without any sort of success. This is one of the more hard-line approaches to trying to solve the issue, but the overall notion (that we don't want parallel societies) is hardly new in Denmark.
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10687 Posts
February 17 2017 14:07 GMT
#13346
People that were alleeady scared of populist right wingers are now even moreso. We'll see if this translates to more people voting or not.

Btw: quiet a few rightwing populists also think that trump is a joke and don't want to see themselves compared to him. Probably because they are not total morons...
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-17 14:14:07
February 17 2017 14:10 GMT
#13347
On February 17 2017 20:54 farvacola wrote:
So some here are saying that Trump's embarrassing first weeks as president have served as a warning signal throughout much of the Western world in terms of what happens when alt-right populism comes to power. WaPo seems to think that Schulz is going through a period of ascendancy in Germany right now partially for that reason. Does this sentiment hold any water?


I think there are many factors to look at with SPD/Schulz ascendancy in the last weeks. For one I believe that a lot of people are fed up with Merkel, but she is seen as a stabilizer in these times and the German economy is running fine, so people just went with her, especially liberals which the CDU/CSU cannot take for granted as their voters usually. But Schulz also kind of brings all of that, as he has been a leading figure of Europe in the past years, but additionally adds that element of "change" to the race, as despite being from SPD, he is not being part of the government.
The Trump factor is probably around a bit as well, as Schulz is much more a figure of a strong, united Europe than Merkel and his party is further from Trump's positions, than Merkels.
Then there is simply the fact, that Sigmar Gabriel, the former head of SPD was simply not well-liked. SPD has been down for years now, after SPD-Greens reformed the country in ways that split the social-democrats and created "Die Linke", a party formed by former SPD and former PDS members (PDS was the heavily reformed SED, the ruling communist party of the GDR). Schulz is a much more integrative figure and other than Gabriel and the others who believe in the "Agenda 2010" reforms, he seems to be willing to create a SPD-Linke-Greens government (which would have had a majority after the last elections, but the SPD did not work with "Die Linke", lots of personal reasons between SPD and former SPD members included). This makes him quite more popular with left-wingers as well, despite his policy not even being that left-winged.
Last but not least there is the infamous subreddit The_Schulz, which was created as a persiflage towards Trump, much before Gabriel somewhat surprisingly announced to step down and make Schulz head of SPD. MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) with Schulz's face and similar memes are currently breaking even into mainstream media.

Also, for those who don't know, the CDU, Merkel's party cannot be elected in Bavaria, they have CSU there, which is a more right-winged, formally independent group. In national elections they act as one party. But CDU/CSU are quite split on the immigration topic, which weakens Merkel's position with conservative voters too.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
February 17 2017 14:13 GMT
#13348
On February 17 2017 23:04 Ghostcom wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 20:55 bardtown wrote:
Parliament: Danes Should Not Become the Minority in Denmark
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-danes-not-become-minority-denmark/
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-adopts-declaration-barring-muslim-majority-neighborhoods/

Any Danes here who can expand on this? It is only being reported by far right media who I'm sure are overblowing its importance.


I'm not sure what you want more info about? I think the general agreement is that a good definition of a Dane is very hard to come by (which has been a major point of contention for this bill), yet there are some very obvious ghettos which we have tried for years to dismantle without any sort of success. This is one of the more hard-line approaches to trying to solve the issue, but the overall notion (that we don't want parallel societies) is hardly new in Denmark.

Well from my perspective a vote like this passing in parliament is significant. I suppose I'm interested to know if there was a sufficient turnout for the vote that it is actually representative of the views of the government, if it's simply words or is likely to lead to any material change, etc. The principle would have support throughout Europe, in my opinion, but actual implementation would be exceptionally contentious and difficult.
opisska
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Poland8852 Posts
February 17 2017 14:14 GMT
#13349
On February 17 2017 21:21 DickMcFanny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 21:18 bardtown wrote:
On February 17 2017 21:11 DickMcFanny wrote:
On February 17 2017 20:55 bardtown wrote:
Parliament: Danes Should Not Become the Minority in Denmark
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-danes-not-become-minority-denmark/
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-adopts-declaration-barring-muslim-majority-neighborhoods/

Any Danes here who can expand on this? It is only being reported by far right media who I'm sure are overblowing its importance.


Nobody is going to take you seriously when you're using sources like that, yet 'serious' media doesn't report on this because it goes against their narrative. Catch 22.

Yeah. Hence searching out a moderate voice who can tell me if there's any significance to it.


There are no moderates. Once you're not part of the multi-cultural hype-train of Islam is great and whites are evil, you're a right wing fascist per definition.


This is such a terrible approach to discussion. Also, I can't help myself but notice that I see it quite often from this side - people aggressively "defending" themselves from the "left" or whatever you want to call them, but I don't really see this oppression that you claim happening. I do not know anyone who would be of the clear cut opinion that Islam is great and whites are evil and I definitely do not see that as the mainstream talk in society and media. So who are you actually fighting against? Why does every discussion that even remotely mentions islam or migration be immediately so heated? What prevents you from talking about the things normally?

I assure you, there are plenty of "moderates" - because most of the people are moderate by nature. The people with extreme opinions are easier to notice, but that's about it. I don't really see why we have to communicate by angry generalizations here among reasonable people.
"Jeez, that's far from ideal." - Serral, the king of mild trashtalk
TL+ Member
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
February 17 2017 14:21 GMT
#13350
i think he has an axe to grind here, on the whole immigration issue. every now and then he pops in and links a immigrants/refugees did this article.

would be interesting to know if something bad happened to him by the hands of a refugee or immigrant; anecdotes and all, it would be a start.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
LightSpectra
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States1388 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-17 19:20:24
February 17 2017 16:51 GMT
#13351
On February 17 2017 18:07 Big J wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 03:58 LightSpectra wrote:
The Fillon scandal is a perfect example of why a parliamentary system is superior to a presidential one. People affiliated with Les Républicains are either forced to vote against their party or vote for a corrupt guy. If instead the Head of Government were selected by a majority vote in the legislature, then Fillon could easily be shuffled out at this stage and replaced by somebody who sucks less.

Le Pen's polarized popularity is a perfect example of why elections should be decided by instant-runoffs or the Condorcet method, not FPTP (even if it's two-round). Two-thirds of the country desperately hates her, but she's going to have a real shot of winning because her opponents are unpopular and fractured.

If I were French I'd probably vote for Hamon.


I do not think this makes much of a difference, the problem is that you cannot really switch candidates at that stage properly. You create a scenario in which the public perceives the new frontrunner as a second tier candidate, and the corruption case as proven, which still sheds a bad light on your party. Additionally, the followes who think that Fillion is not guilty, or what he did is not a big thing, will be angry with the party, which may lead to internal trouble and these voters boycotting the new party candidate nevertheless.

On the flip side, creating a parliamentary system that decides the executive system is quite a dirty type of democracy in my opinion. It becomes a party dictatorship. The parliament basically just becomes a chamber that does whatever the ruling party leaders decide. In my opinion there should always be at least two powerful and serperately elected organs in the decision making process.


It's true that corruption from any politician will hurt the party, that's true no matter the system. But in a parliamentary system, you can still vote for your party in conscience once the corrupt figures are removed, whereas in a presidential system it's usually game over for the party at that point. It's too individualistic.

I don't see how a "party dictatorship" is worse than an individual's dictatorship. At least a party needs broad support to come to power, but it only takes one particularly charismatic demagogue to become president.

On February 17 2017 20:13 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 20:06 Big J wrote:
On February 17 2017 19:35 opisska wrote:
On February 17 2017 19:24 TheDwf wrote:
On February 17 2017 16:13 LegalLord wrote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

I just don't see a clear trend for where they went. Fillon clearly dropped but Le Pen gained very slightly and Macron didn't budge.

On February 17 2017 15:12 LegalLord wrote:
Where did the Fillon voters go? I see Fillon dropping in the polls but I see no clear trend in who gained from it.

To abstention/null (2.5), Macron (2.5), Le Pen (0.5) and Dupont-Aignan (0.5). Numbers are from yesterday's big poll when compared with its former version the previous month.

On February 17 2017 18:07 Big J wrote:
On February 17 2017 03:58 LightSpectra wrote:
The Fillon scandal is a perfect example of why a parliamentary system is superior to a presidential one. People affiliated with Les Républicains are either forced to vote against their party or vote for a corrupt guy. If instead the Head of Government were selected by a majority vote in the legislature, then Fillon could easily be shuffled out at this stage and replaced by somebody who sucks less.

Le Pen's polarized popularity is a perfect example of why elections should be decided by instant-runoffs or the Condorcet method, not FPTP (even if it's two-round). Two-thirds of the country desperately hates her, but she's going to have a real shot of winning because her opponents are unpopular and fractured.

If I were French I'd probably vote for Hamon.


I do not think this makes much of a difference, the problem is that you cannot really switch candidates at that stage properly. You create a scenario in which the public perceives the new frontrunner as a second tier candidate, and the corruption case as proven, which still sheds a bad light on your party. Additionally, the followes who think that Fillion is not guilty, or what he did is not a big thing, will be angry with the party, which may lead to internal trouble and these voters boycotting the new party candidate nevertheless.

On the flip side, creating a parliamentary system that decides the executive system is quite a dirty type of democracy in my opinion. It becomes a party dictatorship. The parliament basically just becomes a chamber that does whatever the ruling party leaders decide. In my opinion there should always be at least two powerful and serperately elected organs in the decision making process.

This... is exactly what we have in France right now, out of a presidential system. The irony when you remember that De Gaulle wanted the Vth Republic to break with the tyranny of parties...

It's a structural design weakness with the representative system; députés are both representative of the nation and members of a party, but ultimately the party has much more coercitive power over the député than voters. The result is that députés routinely “forget” their mandate to follow the party line.


Isn't the problem actually a symptom of the presidential system, not the parliamentary one? The presidential system has strong propensity to put a single party into a focus, because the party that wins the president gets enormously strong and no small party has any real chance to talk to presidential elections, because you can't win "a little" - thus this naturally forces the system into the domination of 2, at best 3 major parties and that then reflects inevitably in the parliamentary elections, because those are done by the same voters, in the same social atmosphere and media coverage.

The parliamentary system, where the government is appointed by the parliament, seems to leave more space for smaller parties and for a fragmented representation. Thus there is less likely to be a "ruling party", all governments need a coalition and while those can be basically required to act unified in some major topics, it opens much more room to debate about everything else.



I think the key component for why this is happening in most countries is the power of the parliament to assign and in particular to remove the members of the government through a majority vote. This effectively leads to government coalitions of parliamentary parties who split the government work and agree upon a majority program. The remaining members of parliament are powerless.

If the US wouldn't have a FPTP elections, I'd call their system far superior. As it is, they are hardly a democracy.

And it would still be a 2 party system for the most part because there can only be 1 winner for the Presidency. Smaller parties might scoop up a few congress seats but I doubt it would change the math much.
Plus the party that wins the Presidency just forms a coalition with whoever is needed to get a majority in congress.


This. I am currently of the opinion that bipartisan politics are inevitable in presidential systems for that reason. That's just terrible for democracy because you're usually voting for the second-worst instead of what you believe in.

I think the best combination is parliamentary (i.e. the executive branch is formed by a majority party/coalition in the legislature) plus a ranked voting system like instant-runoff or the Concordet method. That way you can generally vote for who you think is the best candidate, and if they win they will have real influence in the gov't. When there's a very diverse plurality in the legislature, people are more likely to feel like their interests are being represented. Plus (and you may consider this a disadvantage but I do not) the ruling coalition usually tends to be more moderate due to having to keep many partners happy, whereas in FPTP parliaments, the ruling party simply rules authoritarian-ish until the next election.

EDIT:
Mexico seems to be the only country that has FPTP elections and a presidential system, but still has a wide plurality of parties in their Lower House. Couldn't tell you why they're exceptional. But most countries with FPTP like Canada, the USA, and the U.K. tend toward two bigger parties, sometimes a third party that's mostly irrelevant. France has a two-round variant of FPTP, which allows for more presidential candidates but they still have a mostly exclusively bipartisan Lower House.
2006 Shinhan Bank OSL Season 3 was the greatest tournament of all time
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
February 17 2017 23:29 GMT
#13352
On February 17 2017 23:14 opisska wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 21:21 DickMcFanny wrote:
On February 17 2017 21:18 bardtown wrote:
On February 17 2017 21:11 DickMcFanny wrote:
On February 17 2017 20:55 bardtown wrote:
Parliament: Danes Should Not Become the Minority in Denmark
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-danes-not-become-minority-denmark/
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/15/danish-parliament-adopts-declaration-barring-muslim-majority-neighborhoods/

Any Danes here who can expand on this? It is only being reported by far right media who I'm sure are overblowing its importance.


Nobody is going to take you seriously when you're using sources like that, yet 'serious' media doesn't report on this because it goes against their narrative. Catch 22.

Yeah. Hence searching out a moderate voice who can tell me if there's any significance to it.


There are no moderates. Once you're not part of the multi-cultural hype-train of Islam is great and whites are evil, you're a right wing fascist per definition.


This is such a terrible approach to discussion. Also, I can't help myself but notice that I see it quite often from this side - people aggressively "defending" themselves from the "left" or whatever you want to call them, but I don't really see this oppression that you claim happening. I do not know anyone who would be of the clear cut opinion that Islam is great and whites are evil and I definitely do not see that as the mainstream talk in society and media. So who are you actually fighting against? Why does every discussion that even remotely mentions islam or migration be immediately so heated? What prevents you from talking about the things normally?

I assure you, there are plenty of "moderates" - because most of the people are moderate by nature. The people with extreme opinions are easier to notice, but that's about it. I don't really see why we have to communicate by angry generalizations here among reasonable people.

Well, inclination to martyrdom has always been a clear sign of mindless extremism, so no big surprise here.
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{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 18 2017 15:30 GMT
#13353
Imagine the shit storm if the US declared it would only defend those that met the 2% GDP goal.... Because that seems to be where we are slowly headed.

The US vice-president has delivered the most uncompromising message yet from the Trump administration to Nato allies that they have to step up financial contributions towards defence spending.

On his first visit to Europe since taking office, Mike Pence said “some of our largest allies do not have a credible path” towards paying their share of Nato’s financial burden. Although he did not name individual countries, his targets included Germany, France and Italy. “The time has come to do more,” he said.

This section of his speech to the Munich security conference, which is being attended by 500 delegates including government leaders and defence and foreign ministers from around the world, was greeted with lukewarm applause.

He was speaking immediately after the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, made it clear she would not be bullied by the US over defence spending. She said Germany had made a promise to increase defence over the next decade and would fulfil that commitment rather than be forced into the faster rises that Trump is looking for.

Merkel said the focus on defence spending could be misleading. Even if Germany was to spend more, there was not the military capacity available to invest in. She added that Germany saw spending on development in countries in Africa and elsewhere as vital to security as military spending.

The conference marks the first major meeting between the Trump administration and leaders from across Europe since Trump took office.

Pence went further than the US defence secretary, James Mattis, at Nato headquarters on Wednesday in warning Nato allies to stump up more. He said: “As of this moment, the US and only four other Nato members meet that basic standard.”

Those four countries are the UK, Estonia, Greece and Poland. The other 23 Nato members do not meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defence.

In a thinly veiled warning, Pence said that while the US was bound by Nato’s article five– an attack on one member would be an attack on all – he also reminded the audience that article three contained a commitment to sharing the financial burden, echoing Trump’s warning last year that he did not feel bound to come to the defence of countries that did not pay their share.

Pence peppered his speech with regular references to Trump, stressing that he was delivering messages from the president. He softened his criticism of allies with assurances that the president, in spite of rhetoric about isolationism, valued Nato “The US strongly supports Nato and will be unwavering in our support of this transatlantic alliance,” he said.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21642 Posts
February 18 2017 15:36 GMT
#13354
On February 19 2017 00:30 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Imagine the shit storm if the US declared it would only defend those that met the 2% GDP goal.... Because that seems to be where we are slowly headed.

Show nested quote +
The US vice-president has delivered the most uncompromising message yet from the Trump administration to Nato allies that they have to step up financial contributions towards defence spending.

On his first visit to Europe since taking office, Mike Pence said “some of our largest allies do not have a credible path” towards paying their share of Nato’s financial burden. Although he did not name individual countries, his targets included Germany, France and Italy. “The time has come to do more,” he said.

This section of his speech to the Munich security conference, which is being attended by 500 delegates including government leaders and defence and foreign ministers from around the world, was greeted with lukewarm applause.

He was speaking immediately after the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, made it clear she would not be bullied by the US over defence spending. She said Germany had made a promise to increase defence over the next decade and would fulfil that commitment rather than be forced into the faster rises that Trump is looking for.

Merkel said the focus on defence spending could be misleading. Even if Germany was to spend more, there was not the military capacity available to invest in. She added that Germany saw spending on development in countries in Africa and elsewhere as vital to security as military spending.

The conference marks the first major meeting between the Trump administration and leaders from across Europe since Trump took office.

Pence went further than the US defence secretary, James Mattis, at Nato headquarters on Wednesday in warning Nato allies to stump up more. He said: “As of this moment, the US and only four other Nato members meet that basic standard.”

Those four countries are the UK, Estonia, Greece and Poland. The other 23 Nato members do not meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defence.

In a thinly veiled warning, Pence said that while the US was bound by Nato’s article five– an attack on one member would be an attack on all – he also reminded the audience that article three contained a commitment to sharing the financial burden, echoing Trump’s warning last year that he did not feel bound to come to the defence of countries that did not pay their share.

Pence peppered his speech with regular references to Trump, stressing that he was delivering messages from the president. He softened his criticism of allies with assurances that the president, in spite of rhetoric about isolationism, valued Nato “The US strongly supports Nato and will be unwavering in our support of this transatlantic alliance,” he said.


Source

That would mean they defend the nations who are actually in danger (near Russia) while not defending the nations that are safe in the core of Europe.

Still tho, a complete shitshow and an utter misunderstanding about the point of Nato from Trump.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
February 18 2017 15:37 GMT
#13355
I think that countries who disproportionately make noise that underlies a desire to start a war should have an even higher threshold - say, 3%. The US makes a whole lot of noise and it spends that much, so the others should do the same.

In any case, pay up kids.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
CuddlyCuteKitten
Profile Joined January 2004
Sweden2597 Posts
February 18 2017 15:38 GMT
#13356
Funny thing is that if all European countries spent 2 % GDP on their armies and coordinated within the EU they wouldn't really need America defending them...
waaaaaaaaaaaooooow - Felicia, SPF2:T
RvB
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Netherlands6204 Posts
February 18 2017 15:46 GMT
#13357
Most NATO countries don't need their defense now. There are only a couple countries realistically in danger. Where the US is necessary is in foreign adventures. But then again we could just not help the US with some of their priorities if they don't help Europe (like Iranian sanctions which disproportionately affect Europe).
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
February 18 2017 15:52 GMT
#13358
Everything the US does seems to disproportionately affect Europe. One of the perks of being two oceans away from the problem regions of the world I suppose.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-02-18 16:23:56
February 18 2017 16:17 GMT
#13359
On February 17 2017 23:10 Big J wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 17 2017 20:54 farvacola wrote:
So some here are saying that Trump's embarrassing first weeks as president have served as a warning signal throughout much of the Western world in terms of what happens when alt-right populism comes to power. WaPo seems to think that Schulz is going through a period of ascendancy in Germany right now partially for that reason. Does this sentiment hold any water?


I think there are many factors to look at with SPD/Schulz ascendancy in the last weeks. For one I believe that a lot of people are fed up with Merkel, but she is seen as a stabilizer in these times and the German economy is running fine, so people just went with her, especially liberals which the CDU/CSU cannot take for granted as their voters usually. But Schulz also kind of brings all of that, as he has been a leading figure of Europe in the past years, but additionally adds that element of "change" to the race, as despite being from SPD, he is not being part of the government.
The Trump factor is probably around a bit as well, as Schulz is much more a figure of a strong, united Europe than Merkel and his party is further from Trump's positions, than Merkels.
Then there is simply the fact, that Sigmar Gabriel, the former head of SPD was simply not well-liked. SPD has been down for years now, after SPD-Greens reformed the country in ways that split the social-democrats and created "Die Linke", a party formed by former SPD and former PDS members (PDS was the heavily reformed SED, the ruling communist party of the GDR). Schulz is a much more integrative figure and other than Gabriel and the others who believe in the "Agenda 2010" reforms, he seems to be willing to create a SPD-Linke-Greens government (which would have had a majority after the last elections, but the SPD did not work with "Die Linke", lots of personal reasons between SPD and former SPD members included). This makes him quite more popular with left-wingers as well, despite his policy not even being that left-winged.
Last but not least there is the infamous subreddit The_Schulz, which was created as a persiflage towards Trump, much before Gabriel somewhat surprisingly announced to step down and make Schulz head of SPD. MEGA (Make Europe Great Again) with Schulz's face and similar memes are currently breaking even into mainstream media.

Also, for those who don't know, the CDU, Merkel's party cannot be elected in Bavaria, they have CSU there, which is a more right-winged, formally independent group. In national elections they act as one party. But CDU/CSU are quite split on the immigration topic, which weakens Merkel's position with conservative voters too.


Isn't Schulz for the most part just that he happened to officially announce he's running? Or the SPD announcing that they picked Schulz to be their guy?
Schulz is and was quite popular here yes, but really going up in the polls can probably just be traced back to that day in that people didn't really take him serious before the anouncement and perhaps thought of Gabriel instead?

Don't get me wrong, what farvacola said is true to some degree but I personally don't see it as a big influence.

On February 19 2017 00:37 LegalLord wrote:
I think that countries who disproportionately make noise that underlies a desire to start a war should have an even higher threshold - say, 3%. The US makes a whole lot of noise and it spends that much, so the others should do the same.

In any case, pay up kids.


what about forcing everyone to chip in for a fund that deals with whatever arises afterwards... If the US isn't going to take in refugees they could at least write out some checks to pay for them elsewhere. That'd probably at least somewhat help Greece.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
February 18 2017 16:26 GMT
#13360
On February 19 2017 01:17 Toadesstern wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 19 2017 00:52 LegalLord wrote:
Everything the US does seems to disproportionately affect Europe. One of the perks of being two oceans away from the problem regions of the world I suppose.


what about forcing everyone to chip in for a fund that deals with whatever arises afterwards... If the US isn't going to take in refugees they could at least write out some checks to pay for them elsewhere. That'd probably at least somewhat help Greece.

They could, but that underestimates how selfish the US can be in situations like this.

Mind you, the "open the floodgates" scenario is all on Europe - or at least, on its most important member. Had people properly understood what a crisis this refugee issue would become, they would have just made some nice friendly refugee camps in Turkey and done something else to convince themselves that they are good, worldly people.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
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