EPTEuropean Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 582
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
Martin Schulz (SPD), current president of the European parliament. As detailed earlier here, he is also the expected chancellor candidate of the SPD later in the year. As he is very likely to step back from his current position in the EU parliament in spring 2017 anyway, so becoming foreign minister and then run for chancellor can be considered the logical route following that. And the SPD really has not many alternatives anyway. | ||
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Banaora
Germany234 Posts
On November 15 2016 03:31 mahrgell wrote: Yeah, totally different.... The CSU is nothing more then a state wing of the CDU with a fancy name and way too many privileges. But their union is still unbreakable. Hell, I wish the CDU would ust govern with the SPD. They have the majority for it right now, but instead they listen to those Bavarians even though they are not needed. But it won't happen. And the way it is now they have to considered as one party, mostly plying good cop bad cop. And your analysis why the CSU can't separate is rather shallow and really missing a lot. Yeah, the way it's mostly in these online forums. If you disagree just get personal and don't bring arguments to the table. You are missing a lot. For all I care maybe watch the video I posted above. And maybe inform yourself about how the CSU is organised in Bavaria and why they are forming the government in Bavaria since 1957 without interruption. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On November 15 2016 03:46 Banaora wrote: Yeah, the way it's mostly in these online forums. If you disagree just get personal and don't bring arguments to the table. You are missing a lot. For all I care maybe watch the video I posted above. And maybe inform yourself about how the CSU is organised in Bavaria and why they are forming the government in Bavaria since 1957 without interruption. We are talking about federal politics here. And for that purpose it is still one big union. CSU not being electable outside Bavaria, the CDU not being electable in Bavaria. Their union being unbreakable, even when the CSU is not even needed to form a coalition and actually requires more concessions than the main partner in the coalition. And for that it does not matter that their policies are different. Other parties also have wildly varying views amongst their party wings. They just don't give them fancy regional special names. Maybe Greens should do it for Kretschmann though. For the purpose of federal elections there is no point in calling them two parties as they cant be separated.. Just one slightly schizophrenic party. | ||
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Banaora
Germany234 Posts
On November 15 2016 03:57 mahrgell wrote: We are talking about federal politics here. And for that purpose it is still one big union. CSU not being electable outside Bavaria, the CDU not being electable in Bavaria. Their union being unbreakable, even when the CSU is not even needed to form a coalition and actually requires more concessions than the main partner in the coalition. And for that it does not matter that their policies are different. Other parties also have wildly varying views amongst their party wings. They just don't give them fancy regional special names. Maybe Greens should do it for Kretschmann though. For the purpose of federal elections there is no point in calling them two parties as they cant be separated.. Just one slightly schizophrenic party. That is your opinion and not a fact. In my opinion it's a union on paper. CDU and CSU diverge more and more. CSU currently has in between 7-10% of all the votes in Germany all coming from Bavaria. If they wanted to they could get into parliament without help from CDU. Right now they don't want to do that. There was a time when Franz-Josef Strauss ruled the party where the separation of the common group in federal parliament actually happened and CSU was mulling to campaign nationwide. And there might be a time in the future where this will happen. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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Banaora
Germany234 Posts
Just looking at estimates CSU gets into federal parliament with 5-8% with votes just from Bavaria (they lose some to CDU otherwise this would be between 7-10% like it was from 1953-2013). I know for certain that at least in Baden-Württemberg there are people who would love to vote for CSU because they don't feel represented any more by CDU policies and yet they don't want to vote AfD. Sure this would vary between states. But totaling between 10-15% is a very conservative estimate on a federal level if done right. They would attract voters from AfD and CDU and even the conservative part of SPD. It's just that CSU has no party structures in other states than Bavaria and building these structures takes lots of time if you want to attract the right people. In adition they would lose part of their voter base in Bavaria to CDU and likely lose the absolute majority in state parliament. In my opinion these are the reasons why they don't do it - at least for now. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
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Banaora
Germany234 Posts
On November 15 2016 09:50 RoomOfMush wrote: No party rules alone in germany, its always coalitions. For that reason the AfD will never be able to govern anything. Nobody wants to work with them. They are the weird kid in school; everybody stays 10 feet away. The same was said about the greens in Germany back in the time. On November 15 2016 07:13 Nyxisto wrote: I don't really see though what the purpose of this is even if they get 10%+, they'll still not be able to govern, so if they team up with the CDU again they're just back to square one, nobody will ever govern with the AfD. They have more influence within the coalition. Third parties usually fare worse than wings within parties. They would most likely be in a coalition. But who says they could not get a higher score than CDU nationwide over time and field the chancelor one day? Not at the first election after the split but at a later time. They often are belittled from fellow Germans from other states, but no other party is as successful as CSU these days if you consider the period over which they form the government in Bavaria and how often they can rule with an absolute majority representing 50%+ of the population. Currently I can't see it happening but if the refugee crisis for example would worsen again and CDU and CSU were to diverge further in what they want in my opinion there is a chance for this to happen. After Brexit and Trump never say never. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
1. How was Merkel's "open the floodgates"/"come to Germany" moment interpreted at the time? Right now it's clear how it went (and those who knew better would have predicted it back then) but did it look to the people like a disaster waiting to happen, a remarkable humanitarian gesture, or something in between? 2. In recent years, I've noticed that Merkel's decision-making on various issues appears to have taken a turn for the more emotionally-driven, and I've seen her take far more decisions on the international stage that look very much like a response to feeling slighted on international matters. The American approach to that question would of course be just to call sexism on any such thought, yet I have been told in the past that she can be insecure and poll-driven about her approach to leadership. Could any Germans give their thoughts on their perception of her leadership style and any perceived changes over time? 3. In France, what's going on with the elections? I read the wiki page but I would certainly be interested in hearing more. Who are expected to be the front-runners this time around? A lot is said about Le Pen and her likelihood of making it to the runoffs, but it has been mentioned before that it doesn't look like she's close at present. Is the momentum as of now heading in the favor of FN or against them? Thanks. | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
2. I don't think emotion is the right word, I'm not sure Merkel has emotions lol. It was very fashionable to accuse her of opportunism and poll-governing but that's actually not the case. She's just a very centrist person and takes a super-incremental approach to politics which for many people looked like poll governing, but she's actually fairly staunchly committed to stick to the 'post war liberal' order, and not just on paper. | ||
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Oshuy
Netherlands529 Posts
On November 16 2016 00:55 LegalLord wrote: 3. In France, what's going on with the elections? I read the wiki page but I would certainly be interested in hearing more. Who are expected to be the front-runners this time around? A lot is said about Le Pen and her likelihood of making it to the runoffs, but it has been mentioned before that it doesn't look like she's close at present. Is the momentum as of now heading in the favor of FN or against them? Last time I checked, there were 74 potential candidates, with about a dozen parties. The two main parties are still socialists and republicans, FN has chances of making it to the runoffs ... depending on the list of who is actually a candidate in the first round and who wins the primaries in the main parties. Current debates are mainly around the primaries of socialists/republicans. For socialists, the current president (Hollande) has not yet announced he will run, but decision is expected close between him, Valls (prime minister) and Montebourg (minister of economy). For republicans, first round of primaries this week, expected win for Juppe (mayor of Bordeaux, prime minister in 1995) with a contest between Sarkozy (president 2007-2012) and Fillon (prime minister 2007-2012) for the runoffs. Two potential troublemakers are Bayrou (center right), who announced he would endorse Juppe as a candidate, but would run against Sarkozy ; Macron (previous socialist minister of economy) who will probably run as an independant. In current polls, a split of moderate right between Center and Republicans and/or a split of moderate left between Macron and the socialist candidate gives high chances of runoffs for the FN. | ||
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RvB
Netherlands6263 Posts
www.euronews.com | ||
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/fluechtlinge-studie-103.html Is this a serious news source? Do you think the study is accurat? The numbers are pretty funny though. It seems the refugees have almost identical views to the native germans that were also questioned. Edit: results from the study: + Show Spoiler + Equality between man and woman: Refugees 92% Germans 92% Wife having higher salary than her husband can trouble their marriage: Refugees 29% Germans 18% In favor of Democracy: Reguees 96% Germans 96% In favor of a strong leader: Reguees 21% Germans 22% In favor of experts leading the country: Reguees 55% Germans 59% Against separation between church and state: Reguees 13% Germans 8% At least 10 years of school / training: Reguees 58% Germans 88% | ||
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
With all the focus on crime and extremism we shouldn't forget that those are just tiny subsets of a very large group of a million people. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
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RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
On November 16 2016 04:13 Dangermousecatdog wrote: I am suprised, but then again the majority of refugees in Germany are bound to be the richer segment of Syria, which used to be one of the more secular tolerant parts of the area, currently fleeing an authoritarian regime in a currently sectarian country. That said I am suprised that so many of the refugees are in favour of a strong leader, but I suppose that is an open ended question that doesn't mean much. I wouldnt call 21% "many", especially when you consider the same number of germans wants a strong leader too. But what is the opposite of a strong leader? A weak leader? Who would want a weak leader? I think the question is stupid. Is trump a strong leader? He acts like a strongman. A big bully who will make america great again. But is that "being strong" or is that "acting like a tough guy but being weak minded"? What does a strong leader do? I think the refugees that come to europe must have had a basic level of wealth in order to pay for their escape. They must be the middle class or even higher ups. Well educated and trained. The bottom couldnt have made it. The poor get killed, force recruited to fight for the bad guys or worse because they can not pay to be smuggled out of the country. | ||
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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