My question is this: is Merkel still committed to her refugee policy, consequences be damned? Or has she been looking for a way to back out from it? As far as I can tell she's been willing to watch the EU and internal German support erode for her leadership over time, but at the same time she still insists on pushing the pro-refugee policy. I'm not sure what to think there; I've looked for a good explanation but I haven't yet seen any convincing argument for why there is such a single-track focus on this issue against the will of quite a lot of the German/European population.
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
My question is this: is Merkel still committed to her refugee policy, consequences be damned? Or has she been looking for a way to back out from it? As far as I can tell she's been willing to watch the EU and internal German support erode for her leadership over time, but at the same time she still insists on pushing the pro-refugee policy. I'm not sure what to think there; I've looked for a good explanation but I haven't yet seen any convincing argument for why there is such a single-track focus on this issue against the will of quite a lot of the German/European population. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 14 2016 23:37 Mafe wrote: I'm sure Steinmeier is a good politician and surely has been a good choice for international diplomacy. But I cant help the fact that just thinking of him makes me yawn. I think getting rid of him this way is not just a big win for the SPD over Merkel in the sense that they have chosen the new president, but also a chance for them to find a stronger identity for the upcoming general election. to be fair, sleep inducing sounds like a requirement for the job. I think he fits quite well aside from my idea that he's too young for the job ![]() Those have to be old geezers On November 14 2016 23:45 LegalLord wrote: Steinmeier's an interesting fellow; I've definitely heard a fair bit about him over the past few years both in English and Russian news sources - both in a good and bad light. Though it's hard to develop an opinion of someone when they are only relevant in the way they interact with your own country. My question is this: is Merkel still committed to her refugee policy, consequences be damned? Or has she been looking for a way to back out from it? As far as I can tell she's been willing to watch the EU and internal German support erode for her leadership over time, but at the same time she still insists on pushing the pro-refugee policy. I'm not sure what to think there; I've looked for a good explanation but I haven't yet seen any convincing argument for why there is such a single-track focus on this issue against the will of quite a lot of the German/European population. I don't think it's just Merkel though is it? Pretty much everyone outside of the AFD is more or less in line with the idea behind it. Greens and Left are going to argue that more needs to be done if nothing else | ||
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 14 2016 23:51 Toadesstern wrote: I don't think it's just Merkel though is it? Pretty much everyone outside of the AFD is more or less in line with the idea behind it. Greens and Left are going to argue that more needs to be done if nothing else So I've heard, yet it doesn't seem like the population is as united in this issue as the parties that have power are. It almost seems like Merkel, as her ruling coalition is losing traction, is making new coalitions to continue to force the issue. And they're taking a "too bad, you don't have a choice, all the major parties want this issue even if the people don't" stance. As someone who is closer to the actual issue than someone from the outside looking in, is that a fair assessment or am I missing something? | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
So I personally always get the feeling that the AFD, their support and the supposed Merkel hate (her party is still polling around 32% in what is effectively a 6 party system) are overhyped but I'm from central/west Germany and we tend to like CDU/SPD/Greens here. So perhaps not the best to answer that question. Wikipedia picture on polling: ![]() black: CDU/CSU red: Social Democratic Party purple: The Left green: Green Party yellow: Free Democratic Party blue: Alternative for Germany | ||
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Sent.
Poland9229 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
I have never seen a foreigner (except Viatnamese vegetable/flower sellers and Russians) in my life, now there are 5 brown dudes sitting in front of the supermarket talking in a language I don't understand. They must be there to rape the daughter of my friends brother. Also I read on facebook that they are all terrorists and want to either blow up themselves during the next week or hide all our women under Burqas. Also they are all stealing our jobs. They are the reason why I am jobless. And how dare them to sit in front of the supermarket instead of working? [Let's ignore they are not allowed to work...]. And at last, it is obvious, they don't want to integrate. They want no contact to the true Germans like me. I would never talk to such a guy. They have to be ignored or thrown back into the Med. And yes, I'm from Dresden, basically the capital of this bullshit. Born here, living here most of my life. And I have to listen to this shit at every larger dinner with relatives and friends. Sickens me. | ||
Sent.
Poland9229 Posts
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LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
On November 15 2016 01:13 mahrgell wrote: The Eastern German perspective is: And yes, I'm from Dresden, basically the capital of this bullshit. Born here, living here most of my life. And I have to listen to this shit at every larger dinner with relatives and friends. Sickens me. Well, I don't really think that's particularly fair. I know at the very least that the ex-Soviet Germans would have deeper reason for being skeptical of refugee populations, though possibly not exactly the same as how those of the East interpret that threat. But I do have to say that the Eastern perspective properly accounted for just how deep the strife over refugees would go. I certainly feel quite vindicated in my early negative assessment of the merits of importing millions of MidEast folk into your own country. | ||
RoomOfMush
1296 Posts
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Banaora
Germany234 Posts
On November 14 2016 23:51 Toadesstern wrote: I don't think it's just Merkel though is it? Pretty much everyone outside of the AFD is more or less in line with the idea behind it. Greens and Left are going to argue that more needs to be done if nothing else CSU is against it too. I don't know if you just forgot them or have a different opinion. We all don't know what is going on behind closed doors but I could imagine with close ties between Victor Orban and Seehofer and also ÖVP in Austria and CSU the closing of the Balkan route was something that Seehofer supported. Here is a talk of Austria's foreign minister at CSU conference on 04.11.16 (in German): | ||
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On November 15 2016 02:46 Banaora wrote: CSU is against it too. I don't know if you just forgot them or have a different opinion. We all don't know what is going on behind closed doors but I could imagine with close ties between Victor Orban and Seehofer and also ÖVP in Austria and CSU the closing of the Balkan route was something that Seehofer supported. Here is a talk of Austria's foreign minister at CSU conference on 04.11.16 (in German): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxXZ7tjsqyE forgot. They're just not a thing people think about outside of bavaria ![]() @LegalLord, considering that the AFD wasn't really a thing until this blew up the idea of getting Migrants in so that they would vote left sounds pretty weird considering that CDU/CSU is as far right of the spectrum as you get in mainstream politics here. So they'd be hurting themselves with that | ||
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On November 15 2016 02:49 LegalLord wrote: That's still not good enough. Why import them, rather than deal with them in safe zones in the MidEast where it would be cheaper? Why take refugees from countries like Iraq and Afghanistan as well as Syria? And the explanation for that starts to become difficult to understand. It can't be purely humanitarian, there are other ways to deal with a humanitarian crisis that are more pragmatic. It could be demographic, both in terms of "we need a young labor force because locals aren't having children" and the less common but existent "we need to get rid of ethnic German populations through demographic death." It could be political, in trying to import a demographic more willing to vote to keep the more leftist groups in power. But none of that, nor a mix of it, gives anything that I could see would create such a consensus among the ruling class that differs greatly from the peasant class in opinion. So I'm still at a loss for understanding where this ruling consensus came from. Were there any mainstream West European parties that did take a hardline stance against refugees? Seems like no, as far as I can tell. What kind of wordsalad is that post? - deal with them in safe zones in the mid east? What? - Why take refugees from Iraq/afghanistan/Syria? Well. maybe because there are actually problems there, causing those refugees? I mean, we could also take refugees from the US nowadays... But I guess if we look for "who has the best reason to become a refugee" the first mentioned 3 countries have good chance on top10 spots on that list. - more pragmatic ways of dealing with it? Like... bombing them? - yes demographic reasons exist... hey, you finally got a useful sentence out... - "we need to get rid of ethnic German populations through demographic death." <<< ah, okay, which German political actor is proposing that? - trying to keep leftist groups in power. - Sure thing, considering that the CDU/CSU was the most rightwing party of relevance in Germanybefore the rise of the AfD. And they are in power for quite some time now. They surely care about "keep leftists groups in power" - not sure you heard about the UK, it is a small island west of Europe. They love doing referendums driven by anti-immigration policies. But besides those... yeah. I guess ruling parties somehow feel like they have to act responsibly. And there are good enough reasons to go with some well controlled immigration. Just a matter of discussion how strict "well controlled" is interpreted. But at least in Germany Merkels "Wir schaffen das" (We can/will do it) was mocked a lot, but in the end resembles well what the majority still feels: Germany can handle it. | ||
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On top of that not realizing that since Turkey is the gatekeeper they can cherrypick who gets send through and then probably some thoughts about the labor force like you mentioned. But getting more people in to vote left and "we need to get rid of ethnic German populations through demographic death." seems silly. | ||
LegalLord
United Kingdom13775 Posts
The only part I'll address is "how do we deal with them in the MidEast?" By helping the countries surrounding Syria to protect refugees (in camps, or otherwise) by giving them money, possibly military support and possibly having UN missions to do the same. A far cry from "come to Germany, we want all of you here!" that has been widely criticized by now. A lot cheaper than what has happened, both politically and economically. And it doesn't seem like you have the answer either, so I guess the search goes on. On November 15 2016 03:13 Toadesstern wrote: To me it just sounds like a screwup. As in: undererstimation of the situation and the reaction to it, both when it comes to population here as well as to the statement that everyone is welcome who comes from Syria (read: everyone who has a Syrian passport or has no passport at all). On top of that not realizing that since Turkey is the gatekeeper they can cherrypick who gets send through and then probably some thoughts about the labor force like you mentioned. But getting more people in to vote left and "we need to get rid of ethnic German populations through demographic death." seems silly. That explanation seems somewhat feasible, in that it does seem consistent with Hanlon's Razor and a widespread failure to understand the depth of the issues that would be common in a West European environment. What that would require, however, is some impressive failure to sense the political undertones of what was being proposed among the entire European political leadership, which is possible but I wonder if the motivations run deeper than that. Maybe some common political philosophy among them all that went horribly wrong? The last quote is absolutely not common, but I have heard that quote almost verbatim from some German politician or other. Not sure if I need to dig it up, but it has been said that way before. | ||
mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On November 15 2016 03:13 Toadesstern wrote: To me it just sounds like a screwup. As in: undererstimation of the situation and the reaction to it, both when it comes to population here as well as to the statement that everyone is welcome who comes from Syria (read: everyone who has a Syrian passport or has no passport at all). On top of that not realizing that since Turkey is the gatekeeper they can cherrypick who gets send through and then probably some thoughts about the labor force like you mentioned. But getting more people in to vote left and "we need to get rid of ethnic German populations through demographic death." seems silly. Well... I would never argue that her "floodgate day" wasn't the most terrible day during her entire time as chancellor. This one day went entirely against her entire personal way of ruling, the way that got her to those unbelievably high approval ratings she had. But I think she realized rather quick that this day set back the (at this time admittedly still rather poor) attempts to somehow get some European immigration "solution". But it was done. And the adjustments came (for political standards) rather quick. And we have to deal with what we have at hand now. And yes, this means that Turkey has a role of power that is certainly not helpful to European interests. But well... we can't prevent that. So have to work with it. And yes, we also have to this one huge surge of refugees. But here her answer was "Wir schaffen das". And yes... that's probably correct. There may have been mistakes made in how things happened. But we can handle it. If any country in Europe can handle it, it will be Germany, because we should finally admit it, we are surely the ones having it best right now | ||
Banaora
Germany234 Posts
On November 15 2016 03:10 mahrgell wrote: - trying to keep leftist groups in power. - Sure thing, considering that the CDU/CSU was the most rightwing party of relevance in Germanybefore the rise of the AfD. And they are in power for quite some time now. They surely care about "keep leftists groups in power" CSU and CDU are *different* parties. CSU is a full-blown conservative - I would say anti-immigration - party. CDU moved far to the left. Just think about cancellation of forced military conscription, exit of nuclear energy, immigration policies. All of these three were supported by CDU and now there is talk about a CDU/Green coalition. These three topics would never have been supported by CDU under Helmut Kohl. So CDU became a centrist party. Leaving the right flank far open. The main reason CSU is only present in Bavaria is that the moment they start to campaign in all other states CDU will start to campaign in Bavaria and CSU will most likely lose their absolute majority there. | ||
mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On November 15 2016 03:26 Banaora wrote: CSU and CDU are *different* parties. CSU is a full-blown conservative - I would say anti-immigration - party. CDU moved far to the left. Just think about cancellation of forced military conscription, exit of nuclear energy, immigration policies. All of these three were supported by CDU and now there is talk about a CDU/Green coalition. These three topics would never have been supported by CDU under Helmut Kohl. So CDU became a centrist party. Leaving the right flank far open. The main reason CSU is only present in Bavaria is that the moment they start to campaign in all other states CDU will start to campaign in Bavaria and CSU will most likely lose their absolute majority there. Yeah, totally different.... The CSU is nothing more then a state wing of the CDU with a fancy name and way too many privileges. But their union is still unbreakable. Hell, I wish the CDU would ust govern with the SPD. They have the majority for it right now, but instead they listen to those Bavarians even though they are not needed. But it won't happen. And the way it is now they have to considered as one party, mostly plying good cop bad cop. And your analysis why the CSU can't separate is rather shallow and really missing a lot. | ||
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