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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Wednesday that Greece was close to concluding a deal with lenders on a multi-billion-euro bailout, which he said would end doubts over its place in the euro zone.
The comments were the latest in a series of unusually upbeat assessments by Greek and European officials of progress in talks towards up to 86 billion euros (£60 billion) in fresh loans to stave off the country's financial ruin and economic collapse.
"We are in the final stretch," Tsipras said. "Despite the difficulties we are facing we hope this agreement can end uncertainty on the future of Greece."
"It should at some point be under the control and monitoring of the European Parliament, a democratic institution which has accountability," Tsipras said.
Over the next two weeks Greece must conclude the bailout, or at least secure a bridge loan such as the one last month to cover its immediate financing needs.Greek officials say the country wants a full bailout immediately rather than a bridge loan.
"We will not accept new prior actions (reform conditions in place) in order to have a small bridge loan," said Nikos Filis, parliamentary spokesman for Tsipras's Syriza party.
"We want one final deal to be signed and then we will see what is needed to have a disbursement of 25 billion euros as the first instalment."
DEAL COMING?
Agreements have already been reached on pensions, including only changing conditions for those eligible after last June.
Talks on privatisations have been held up over what Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos says is a minor issue, essentially over whether a new or existing agency should deal with tenders already agreed. [ID:nL5N10G2U3]
On one of the trickier questions, that of bank recapitalisation, Tsakalotos said on Wednesday that Greece and its international lenders both wanted it agreed before year-end, a move that would avoid new rules forcing large depositors to pay for some of it.
The European Union estimates that the Greek banking sector will need anything from 10 billion euros to 25 billion euros, but the exact amount needed would depend on the results of stress tests and asset-quality reviews. [ID:nL5N10G3MH]
The poor financing of Greek banks and the prospect of recapitalisation, which would hurt existing shareholders, have sent the stock market's bank index tumbling 63 percent in the three sessions since Monday's open.
Greek media has reported that up to 10 billion euros of a first tranche of bailout aid -- assuming one is agreed -- could be channelled to the banks.
An accord must be settled -- or a bridge loan agreed -- by Aug. 20, when a 3.5 billion euro debt payment to the European Central Bank falls due.
Both sides have said such a deal is possible, although the European Commission described the target as ambitious, suggesting much remains to be done.
Discussions between Greece and representatives from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, European Commission and the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, started in the last week of July.
Tsipras, who was visiting the agriculture ministry, said the process should also potentially include the European Parliament, indirectly alluding to past complaints over the legitimacy of demands from lenders.
uk.reuters.com
I don't know, this is the article so you can decide for yourself if you think it's for real.
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On August 06 2015 04:12 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Wednesday that Greece was close to concluding a deal with lenders on a multi-billion-euro bailout, which he said would end doubts over its place in the euro zone.
The comments were the latest in a series of unusually upbeat assessments by Greek and European officials of progress in talks towards up to 86 billion euros (£60 billion) in fresh loans to stave off the country's financial ruin and economic collapse.
"We are in the final stretch," Tsipras said. "Despite the difficulties we are facing we hope this agreement can end uncertainty on the future of Greece."
"It should at some point be under the control and monitoring of the European Parliament, a democratic institution which has accountability," Tsipras said.
Over the next two weeks Greece must conclude the bailout, or at least secure a bridge loan such as the one last month to cover its immediate financing needs.Greek officials say the country wants a full bailout immediately rather than a bridge loan.
"We will not accept new prior actions (reform conditions in place) in order to have a small bridge loan," said Nikos Filis, parliamentary spokesman for Tsipras's Syriza party.
"We want one final deal to be signed and then we will see what is needed to have a disbursement of 25 billion euros as the first instalment."
DEAL COMING?
Agreements have already been reached on pensions, including only changing conditions for those eligible after last June.
Talks on privatisations have been held up over what Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos says is a minor issue, essentially over whether a new or existing agency should deal with tenders already agreed. [ID:nL5N10G2U3]
On one of the trickier questions, that of bank recapitalisation, Tsakalotos said on Wednesday that Greece and its international lenders both wanted it agreed before year-end, a move that would avoid new rules forcing large depositors to pay for some of it.
The European Union estimates that the Greek banking sector will need anything from 10 billion euros to 25 billion euros, but the exact amount needed would depend on the results of stress tests and asset-quality reviews. [ID:nL5N10G3MH]
The poor financing of Greek banks and the prospect of recapitalisation, which would hurt existing shareholders, have sent the stock market's bank index tumbling 63 percent in the three sessions since Monday's open.
Greek media has reported that up to 10 billion euros of a first tranche of bailout aid -- assuming one is agreed -- could be channelled to the banks.
An accord must be settled -- or a bridge loan agreed -- by Aug. 20, when a 3.5 billion euro debt payment to the European Central Bank falls due.
Both sides have said such a deal is possible, although the European Commission described the target as ambitious, suggesting much remains to be done.
Discussions between Greece and representatives from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, European Commission and the euro zone's bailout fund, the European Stability Mechanism, started in the last week of July.
Tsipras, who was visiting the agriculture ministry, said the process should also potentially include the European Parliament, indirectly alluding to past complaints over the legitimacy of demands from lenders. uk.reuters.comI don't know, this is the article so you can decide for yourself if you think it's for real.
He was right to state that the IMF has withdrawn from participation in the 3rd bailout until Greece is offered meaningful debt relief: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/30/imf-will-refuse-join-greek-bailout-until-debt-relief-demands-met (believe someone linked this here previously)
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If they had withdrawn they wouldn't be negotiating. Debt relief is a condition for them to participate in the bailout.
Edit: that article is saying the same thing as I am. My english might be unclear though.
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No need to argue semantics when we all mean the same thing. The IMF will not participate until debt relief happens.
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Yeah, looks like it's on the table as well if talks are progressing like Tsipras said.
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On August 06 2015 04:57 RvB wrote:
Yeah, looks like it's on the table as well if talks are progressing like Tsipras said.
I am not so sure, nothing is clear yet so we just have to wait and see. Tsipras's public pronouncements have rarely been coordinated with reality in the past. Tsipras also recently said, "I know well the framework of the deal we signed at the eurozone summit on 12 July,” he said. “We will implement these commitments, irrespective of whether we agree with it or not. Nothing beyond that.”
Although she is only Greece's shadow finance minister (aka nothing), Asimakopoulou recently said, "I can’t see them getting what is a huge deal, a three-year financing programme, done in two weeks. And even if they do get it done, say by 15 August, they will have to do something, enforce prior actions, to get the first tranche [of aid], which is almost impossible.”
So it may be a while before we find out the outcome.
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Interesting article about a future tax solely for the Euro Zone: Spiegel International - Breaking a Taboo
As always Merkel's lack of appreciation for democracy shines through. For her, technocratic solutions are the only ones to 'get things done', people will never vote for 'meaningful reforms' by themselves and a EU finance minister elected by the EU parliament would be too soft or too populist, I guess.
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This is the craziest idea I've heard in a long time. An european economic government, with who at it head ? Schauble ? Thank god Hollande will never have the backbone to push for such a huge reform.
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The issue aside of who is supposed to govern this, why is it a bad idea? more federalization including delegation of budget sovereignty to the EU is the logical step, we can't have a monetary union without a fiscal and political union in the long term. I'm pretty sure you've said this yourself before.
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On August 06 2015 09:05 Nyxisto wrote:
The issue aside of who is supposed to govern this, why is it a bad idea? more federalization including delegation of budget sovereignty to the EU is the logical step, we can't have a monetary union without a fiscal and political union in the long term. I'm pretty sure you've said this yourself before.
Yeah it's a solution to the flaws of the euro.
Aside from that, it's also the end of democracy for most european countries (it's true that it was almost already the case) and the advent of a complete domination of liberals and technocrats (and Germans politicians) - but again it's almost already the case so well. When you look at what europe has in store for Greece, do you really think I will happily welcome an european economic government ? :r
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I think if Europe would actually have that form of government it wouldn't need to have 'anything bad in store' for Greece. Austerity policy was only necessary from a German viewpoint because there was no political unity and it is a very bad way to leverage stuff out of Greece. The horrible narrative of "Greece is leeching money off the German taxpayer" goes away when there is a common budget and policy-making. I think Greece would have a much better position in that federal framework.
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On August 06 2015 10:03 Nyxisto wrote:
I think if Europe would actually have that form of government it wouldn't need to have 'anything bad in store' for Greece. Austerity policy was only necessary from a German viewpoint because there was no political unity and it is a very bad way to leverage stuff out of Greece. The horrible narrative of "Greek is leeching money off the German taxpayer" goes away when there is a common budget and policymaking. I think Greece would have a much better position in that federal framework.
Yeah the main problem I see with all that is politics. Germany will never agree to sign for a situation that does not favor Germany; that's a fact and that's not really a bad thing just normal politics. Considering the north current dominant position, you really think a future european economic government will lead to sustainable fiscal transfert from the north to the south ? It will be a tool for the north to impose reform on the south, that's it (what it has already been doing through debt but whatever).
There are no country in the north that is ready to acknowledge that purchasing trade surplus is not a sustainable strategy for Europe, especially Germany, and the north is not ready to accept to transfert the equivalent of their surplus in liquidity.
Also, this situation will never be able to arise through a democratic process, since the people of europe just don't want it right now - the french will never vote for it now for exemple.
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The South imposed reform on itself through debt... If they didnt need to borrow, they could do whatever they please.
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On August 06 2015 10:18 cLutZ wrote:
The South imposed reform on itself through debt... If they didnt need to borrow, they could do whatever they please.
So the south had the choice to endebt itself ? Tell that to Spain that had a debt level lower than any other european countries and that was basically forced to follow other european countries in bailing out the banks.
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On August 06 2015 10:16 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2015 10:03 Nyxisto wrote:
I think if Europe would actually have that form of government it wouldn't need to have 'anything bad in store' for Greece. Austerity policy was only necessary from a German viewpoint because there was no political unity and it is a very bad way to leverage stuff out of Greece. The horrible narrative of "Greek is leeching money off the German taxpayer" goes away when there is a common budget and policymaking. I think Greece would have a much better position in that federal framework. Yeah the main problem I see with all that is politics. Germany will never agree to sign for a situation that does not favor Germany; that's a fact and that's not really a bad thing just normal politics. Considering the north current dominant position, you really think a future european economic government will lead to sustainable fiscal transfert from the north to the south ? It will be a tool for the north to impose reform on the south, that's it (what it has already been doing through debt but whatever). There are no country in the north that is ready to acknowledge that purchasing trade surplus is not a sustainable strategy for Europe, especially Germany, and the north is not ready to accept to transfert the equivalent of their surplus in liquidity (that would account for something like 10 % of Germany's GDP if I reckon Sapir's work). Also, this situation will never be able to arise through a democratic process, since the people of europe just don't want it right now - the french will never vote for it now for exemple.
I don't think the German politicians are the problem here. A lot of Social Democrats would have absolutely no problem with some form of fiscal transfer, they just want to do it in a way that doesn't look like Germany is being ripped off.
As to federalization being unpopular with the people, that was always the case and it was much more extreme in the past. When the coal and steel union was initially created between France and Germany only a few years after the war I remember a poll in a history book somewhere that stated that 70% of the German population was convinced that the German Empire or a dictatorship is the best form of government with the Weimar Republic and the Federal republic far behind. I can't imagine that popular opinion in France about Germany was really great either at the time.
Big decisions in Europe have always been made behind closed doors, that's not a novelty and I don't even think that it's a bad thing.
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On August 06 2015 10:20 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2015 10:18 cLutZ wrote:
The South imposed reform on itself through debt... If they didnt need to borrow, they could do whatever they please. So the south had the choice to endebt itself ? Tell that to Spain that had a debt level lower than any other european countries and that was basically forced to follow other european countries in bailing out the banks.
I'm interested, source? English, Spanish, or French would be acceptable.
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Debt levels on Spain
![[image loading]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/es/timeline/2dd78d45803f2c36a4c821d869680c8c.png)
About being forced to follow other european countries, atleast that's not my information. Mariano Rajoy was the one who asked EU for the bailout (even tho he would never call it that way on Spain) for all i know, and it was just to bailout the banks.
But if you ask the common people if they were forced to take the bailout, yes, they were, but not by Europe, but our goverment.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2012/jun/11/question-answer-spain-banking-bailout
Edit - But i am still interested on source from Whitedog tho, different angles.
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Debt levels spiked for almost all countries post 07-08. Did Spain really bail out banks to the tune of 60% of its GDP?
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There's been a lot of talk of increasing political and economic integration as a result of the crisis but I think it is a mistake. Europeans are clearly not ready to give up sovereignty to a supranational EU government and whichever way it happens it's clear that there will need to be serious compromises which many countries will be very unhappy with. In my opinion, instead of rushing into integration in response to this crisis, which many EU voters clearly aren't onboard with, it would be better to halt integration for the time being, and take steps to increase the stability of the current union as it stands.
The big problem has been the eurozone which was an economic fudge which is now being exposed for all the faults that were predicted. The current system as it stands is clearly not economically viable. I would be in favour of the solution advocated by a former IMF deputy director among others: Germany should leave the eurozone and return to the deutschmark along with a willing few northern Euro countries for whom it would also make economic sense. This would solve many of the problems suffered by the current eurozone, as explained in the article. Combined with some important economic reforms of the eurozone system and rules that have been learned as a result of the crisis, advocated by economists, and hopefully the eurozone would be stabilized to the point where it could be sustainable for at least a couple decades. It would not be ideal, it would still be a fudge, but it would buy a lot of time for Europeans to consider what they would like a future EU to look like and their place within it, instead of being rushed into a union that nobody will be happy with.
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On August 06 2015 09:49 WhiteDog wrote:Show nested quote +On August 06 2015 09:05 Nyxisto wrote:
The issue aside of who is supposed to govern this, why is it a bad idea? more federalization including delegation of budget sovereignty to the EU is the logical step, we can't have a monetary union without a fiscal and political union in the long term. I'm pretty sure you've said this yourself before. Yeah it's a solution to the flaws of the euro. Aside from that, it's also the end of democracy for most european countries (it's true that it was almost already the case) and the advent of a complete domination of liberals and technocrats (and Germans politicians) - but again it's almost already the case so well. When you look at what europe has in store for Greece, do you really think I will happily welcome an european economic government ? :r
Why do you think a common european government would be dominated by German politicians? If anything, i would guess that that would be less the case.
In a european government with some sort of proportional representation, germany would have 80/500 million votes. While that is more than any other single country, it is not really a majority. In my opinion, a properly elected european government with actual power is by far preferable to the weird situation we currently have going on.
Also, it is a lot easier to convince people that their tax money should be spend to improve another part of the same country, as opposed to another country alltogether.
I am also a bit confused by the constant usage of "technocrat". The definition according to wikipedia does not fit the context in which you use it in the slightest, and it appears to mostly mean "people i disagree with who are in charge" to you.
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EPT
