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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1228

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21963 Posts
February 11 2019 11:42 GMT
#24541
Plus your money has a decent risk to poof, as crypto isn't the most stable of currency. And that if enough companies do this your country turns into Greece.

I get that no one likes to pay taxes, but if no one pays taxes the country goes to shit.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
February 11 2019 22:44 GMT
#24542
I don't understand how this works accounting wise. If you have people on official payroll and you try to escape taxes through crypto, you're missing money somewhere if you officially underpay them. You're basically screaming to get busted at some point
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10132 Posts
February 11 2019 23:14 GMT
#24543
It must be nice to live in a country where people don't get paid in black all the time.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
February 11 2019 23:30 GMT
#24544
Sounds unbelievably sketchy. What can you even pay using cryptocurrency for? Its not "real" money. Does Romania have a Greece level of tax enforcement?
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-11 23:52:01
February 11 2019 23:44 GMT
#24545
On February 12 2019 08:14 Godwrath wrote:
It must be nice to live in a country where people don't get paid in black all the time.


In around 80% of all investigated cases in Germany the tax investigators find something that is not being done right. Tax investigators are really great at paying their own payrolls. Which is why the regional parties cut tax investigators for matters of local advantages. F.e. Bavaria (like the Austrian conservatives) is quite openly advertising that they are lenient about "pesky" controls and anyone who demands more controls is "dishonoring" the entrepreneurs.

Another recent example would be Germany's extremely poor job at implementing the 4th Anti-Money laundering directive of the EU. The so-called transparency register Germany created is essentially just a big middle finger towards Brussels.
https://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/transparenzregister-firmeneigentuemer-eu-1.4317342
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-12 00:01:35
February 12 2019 00:00 GMT
#24546
What's also a little paradoxical about trying to avoid taxes with crypto currencies is that the entire ecosystem is on a public ledger, so if anyone should ever connect a user or business account to a wallet you're pretty much screwed up because you have a public history of literally every transaction. And given the security behaviour of people in the real world that's not too hard to imagine.

If someone built a crypto ecosystem that's good for anything other than buying drugs off the internet, making tax and business transactions much more transparent would actually be a good use-case
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9137 Posts
February 12 2019 05:44 GMT
#24547
On February 12 2019 08:30 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
Sounds unbelievably sketchy. What can you even pay using cryptocurrency for? Its not "real" money. Does Romania have a Greece level of tax enforcement?

AFAIK it gets automatically exchanged for a real currency upon a purchase or ATM withdrawal, they're Visa cards so they work pretty much everywhere I assume.

We do have a Greece level of tax enforcement and on top of that, popular morality around here suggests that snitching to the tax man is wrong and and paying employees in black is neutral or even good for sticking it to our 'common enemy'.
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5296 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-12 10:17:05
February 12 2019 10:15 GMT
#24548
- it happens mostly in IT circles;
- it is taxed as “income from other sources” at a rate of 10% (subject to income tax);

the issue here is that employers sign working contracts based on minimum wage but pay more than that; the extra being sometimes payed in crypto makes it more edgy but not uncommon. you get it in LEU too(cash form).
- there's a shortage of qualified working force(the so called brain drain of undeveloped countries) so it's seen as a bribe of sorts: employer to the employee. employees screw themselves of some pension earnings and screw the state sponsored healthcare system and the employer gets to keep the asset.
- the last elected gov. changed the tax burden from the employer to the employee which made employers less accountable with regards to taxes.
it's a gray area but can be justified if needed by ways of discretionary payments/bonuses and/or other stuff.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
February 15 2019 12:13 GMT
#24549
So what is stopping a new Government in power after the election from collapsing as well? Especially since the Catalans apparently hold the cards to allow a budget? What Coalition would even allow the discussion of Catalan Independence to be heard...?

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has called a snap election for 28 April after Catalan secessionists joined rightwing parties in rejecting the socialist government’s national budget earlier in the week.

The country’s third general election in less than four years was seen as an inevitability following Sánchez’s defeat on Wednesday.

“Between doing nothing and continuing without the budget and calling on Spaniards to have their say, I choose the second. Spain needs to keep advancing, progressing with tolerance, respect, moderation and common sense,” Sánchez said in a televised address to the nation following a cabinet meeting. “I have proposed to dissolve parliament and call elections for 28 April.”

Sánchez’s PSOE, which holds 84 of the 350 seats in congress, relied on the support of Basque and Catalan nationalist parties to seize power from the conservative People’s party (PP) in a confidence vote last year.

But the two main Catalan pro-independence parties – the Catalan Republican Left and Catalan European Democratic party – voted with the PP and centre-right Citizens party on the budget, defeating it by 191 votes to 158, with one abstention.

A general election had been due next year.

Sánchez wants a ballot as soon as possible to mobilise left-leaning voters against the threat of the right coming to power.

The PSOE are ahead in opinion polls, which give them about 30% of voting intentions, but the two main right-of-centre parties together poll more than 30%. In Spain’s most populous region of Andalucía, they unseated the socialists last year with the help of the far-right party Vox.

Sánchez’s government has taken a more conciliatory approach to the Catalan question than its predecessor, and he has met the Catalan president, Quim Torra, on several occasions.

The separatists, however, said they would only support the budget if Sánchez agreed to discuss self-determination for the region. That would have cost the PSOE votes in the rest of Spain where a majority want to preserve the nation’s territorial integrity.

“We are prepared to talk and find a solution within the constitution but not outside of it,” Sánchez said on Friday. Many Catalans are dismayed that the separatists joined forces with right-wing parties to bring down Sánchez. The Barcelona mayor, Ada Colau, described it as a grave error.

Since the transition to democracy in 1978, Catalan and Basque nationalists have played the role of kingmaker to a series of minority governments. That role might now fall to the centre-right Ciudadanos party, which appears willing to go into coalition with either the PSOE or the PP if it means a taste of power.

The great unknown is the impact of Vox, which recently emerged from the shadows to take 11% of the vote in December’s elections in Andalucía, a socialist stronghold.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10132 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-15 13:52:19
February 15 2019 13:51 GMT
#24550
On February 15 2019 21:13 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So what is stopping a new Government in power after the election from collapsing as well? Especially since the Catalans apparently hold the cards to allow a budget? What Coalition would even allow the discussion of Catalan Independence to be heard...?

- A right coalition, PP, Ciudadanos and Vox, which is very likely to be the one that wins the elections.
- Plausible? None. Fantasy world ? Podemos with the independentists.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
February 25 2019 08:49 GMT
#24551
Current topic of discussion in Austria: Preemptive imprisonment.

The conservative chancellor and his far-right interior minister are pushing to take refugees into custody, based on a "danger prediction".
And what is the social-democratic answer to that in austria according to one of their right-wingers? "Don't just limit it to refugees."

God damn it, where is Bush when you need him? We have pumpkin seed oil and are in desperate need for freedom!
Acamar
Profile Joined February 2019
7 Posts
February 25 2019 11:31 GMT
#24552
--- Nuked ---
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21963 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-25 11:46:30
February 25 2019 11:45 GMT
#24553
Nvm, he's banned already.
+ Show Spoiler +
We know May doesn't want to be put out of her misery because she has had plenty of opportunity to bow out and step down. Like after her deal got crushed in Parliament. And she didn't and has shown no sign of wanting to.

And yes a 2 month extension is pointless. Nothing will change except for damage from market instability for longer.
But neither does extending till 2021. Next election is scheduled for 2022? so 2024 for Brexit with a fresh negotiation would be a more logical timeframe.
As for Early elections. I, again, see no reason why May would do this when her party and coalition still have her back.
It would likely require the Queen to come in and force it, which I suspect would be rather unprecedented.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9252 Posts
February 26 2019 21:24 GMT
#24554
Study shows Germany and Netherlands gained the most from the introduction of the euro while France and Italy lost the most

Germany gained almost €1.9 trillion ($2.1 trillion) between 1999 and 2017 as a result of the euro's introduction, according to a report by the Centre for European Policy (CEP). Researchers Alessandro Gasparotti and Matthias Kullas on Monday published their study "20 Years of the Euro: Winners and Losers," which uses a "synthetic control method" to analyze which countries have gained from the euro and which ones have lost out. They found Germany and the Netherlands to be the only countries to have gained substantial benefits from the euro. In Germany during this two-decade time frame, the new currency created an additional €23,000 per inhabitant.

Greece initially gained hugely from the euro but suffered enormous losses since 2011. In comparison to Germany's trillion-euro benefit, Greece could only book a €2 billion gain, which brought per capita gains to €190 per inhabitant over the 20-year life of the euro.

Outside of Germany and the Netherlands, the trend for the bloc was a drop in prosperity. In France, this fall amounted to €3.6 trillion and in Italy €4.3 trillion. These reductions equate to €56,000 and €74,000 per capita respectively.

One of the main reasons for the drop in prosperity was international competitiveness, according to the report. Before the introduction of the euro, countries were able to devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper on the world market.

https://www.dw.com/en/cep-study-germany-gains-most-from-euro-introduction/a-47675856


I have no idea how all of this was calculated by I'm a little surprised by these results. Thought Greece would lose more and France not as much. Maybe it's not as bad as the graphs make it look, otherwise I don't understand why France isn't pushing for reforms more decisively.
You're now breathing manually
Sbrubbles
Profile Joined October 2010
Brazil5776 Posts
February 27 2019 03:02 GMT
#24555
On February 25 2019 20:45 Gorsameth wrote:
Nvm, he's banned already.
+ Show Spoiler +
We know May doesn't want to be put out of her misery because she has had plenty of opportunity to bow out and step down. Like after her deal got crushed in Parliament. And she didn't and has shown no sign of wanting to.

And yes a 2 month extension is pointless. Nothing will change except for damage from market instability for longer.
But neither does extending till 2021. Next election is scheduled for 2022? so 2024 for Brexit with a fresh negotiation would be a more logical timeframe.
As for Early elections. I, again, see no reason why May would do this when her party and coalition still have her back.
It would likely require the Queen to come in and force it, which I suspect would be rather unprecedented.


I dunno, it seems to me that the more brexit is delayed the more acceptable a second referendum becomes. I don't mean a month or two, I mean like a year or two.

4 years is one of the most common intervals for elections worldwide. It's a bit of a logic leap, but you could conclude from this that 4 year is the accepted time span that a people can change their mind about their political choices. That would put an acceptable referendum at mid 2020
Bora Pain minha porra!
Silvanel
Profile Blog Joined March 2003
Poland4733 Posts
February 27 2019 08:18 GMT
#24556
Yeah, thats what i also wanted to point out. After 4-5 years we vote again in local/national elections. It makes sense to have another vote on referndum issue after 4-5, it is a long time afterall.
Pathetic Greta hater.
Oshuy
Profile Joined September 2011
Netherlands529 Posts
February 27 2019 10:34 GMT
#24557
On February 27 2019 06:24 Sent. wrote:
Study shows Germany and Netherlands gained the most from the introduction of the euro while France and Italy lost the most

Show nested quote +
Germany gained almost €1.9 trillion ($2.1 trillion) between 1999 and 2017 as a result of the euro's introduction, according to a report by the Centre for European Policy (CEP). Researchers Alessandro Gasparotti and Matthias Kullas on Monday published their study "20 Years of the Euro: Winners and Losers," which uses a "synthetic control method" to analyze which countries have gained from the euro and which ones have lost out. They found Germany and the Netherlands to be the only countries to have gained substantial benefits from the euro. In Germany during this two-decade time frame, the new currency created an additional €23,000 per inhabitant.

Greece initially gained hugely from the euro but suffered enormous losses since 2011. In comparison to Germany's trillion-euro benefit, Greece could only book a €2 billion gain, which brought per capita gains to €190 per inhabitant over the 20-year life of the euro.

Outside of Germany and the Netherlands, the trend for the bloc was a drop in prosperity. In France, this fall amounted to €3.6 trillion and in Italy €4.3 trillion. These reductions equate to €56,000 and €74,000 per capita respectively.

One of the main reasons for the drop in prosperity was international competitiveness, according to the report. Before the introduction of the euro, countries were able to devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper on the world market.

https://www.dw.com/en/cep-study-germany-gains-most-from-euro-introduction/a-47675856


I have no idea how all of this was calculated by I'm a little surprised by these results. Thought Greece would lose more and France not as much. Maybe it's not as bad as the graphs make it look, otherwise I don't understand why France isn't pushing for reforms more decisively.


Methodology is ... interesting. They create for each of the european countries a "control group" of countries, with the claim that in the previous years (1980-1998) that control group behaved like the country studied, therefore it should have been the case since 1999 if Euro hadn't been introduced. For France, control group is Australia+UK, for Greece it is Barbados/New Zealand/Israel, for Germany it is Japan/UK/Bahrain/Switzerland and for Netherlands it is Denmark/New Zealand/Japan/Singapore.

To get big numbers, they also present the results as a loss of GDP per capita, computing the sum of estimated loss/gain over time. For example, the model predicts that the GDP per capita of France in 2017 would have been €5,500 higher (~38,000 instead of ~33,000), but they display a loss of €56,000 as the sum 1999 to 2017 of the same.
Coooot
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
February 27 2019 10:44 GMT
#24558
Thanks, that is quite some valuable information!
Acrofales
Profile Joined August 2010
Spain18132 Posts
February 27 2019 11:37 GMT
#24559
On February 27 2019 19:34 Oshuy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 27 2019 06:24 Sent. wrote:
Study shows Germany and Netherlands gained the most from the introduction of the euro while France and Italy lost the most

Germany gained almost €1.9 trillion ($2.1 trillion) between 1999 and 2017 as a result of the euro's introduction, according to a report by the Centre for European Policy (CEP). Researchers Alessandro Gasparotti and Matthias Kullas on Monday published their study "20 Years of the Euro: Winners and Losers," which uses a "synthetic control method" to analyze which countries have gained from the euro and which ones have lost out. They found Germany and the Netherlands to be the only countries to have gained substantial benefits from the euro. In Germany during this two-decade time frame, the new currency created an additional €23,000 per inhabitant.

Greece initially gained hugely from the euro but suffered enormous losses since 2011. In comparison to Germany's trillion-euro benefit, Greece could only book a €2 billion gain, which brought per capita gains to €190 per inhabitant over the 20-year life of the euro.

Outside of Germany and the Netherlands, the trend for the bloc was a drop in prosperity. In France, this fall amounted to €3.6 trillion and in Italy €4.3 trillion. These reductions equate to €56,000 and €74,000 per capita respectively.

One of the main reasons for the drop in prosperity was international competitiveness, according to the report. Before the introduction of the euro, countries were able to devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper on the world market.

https://www.dw.com/en/cep-study-germany-gains-most-from-euro-introduction/a-47675856


I have no idea how all of this was calculated by I'm a little surprised by these results. Thought Greece would lose more and France not as much. Maybe it's not as bad as the graphs make it look, otherwise I don't understand why France isn't pushing for reforms more decisively.


Methodology is ... interesting. They create for each of the european countries a "control group" of countries, with the claim that in the previous years (1980-1998) that control group behaved like the country studied, therefore it should have been the case since 1999 if Euro hadn't been introduced. For France, control group is Australia+UK, for Greece it is Barbados/New Zealand/Israel, for Germany it is Japan/UK/Bahrain/Switzerland and for Netherlands it is Denmark/New Zealand/Japan/Singapore.

To get big numbers, they also present the results as a loss of GDP per capita, computing the sum of estimated loss/gain over time. For example, the model predicts that the GDP per capita of France in 2017 would have been €5,500 higher (~38,000 instead of ~33,000), but they display a loss of €56,000 as the sum 1999 to 2017 of the same.


The first part seems quite reasonable, although it has to be noted that there was no major recession between 1980 and 1999: the 1980s recession as it affected Europe is more comparable to the dotcom bubble bursting in 2000 than the the real estate crash of 2007/8. Regarding Germany in particular: how does it account for the joining of East and West Germany in 1989? This was a major economic adjustment that has no good comparison in other nations. The rest of (western) Europe experienced uninterrupted economic growth from the mid 80s all through the 90s, which is somewhat unusual, but also a result of the newly possible economic ties with the former Warsaw pact countries. This effect was not going to last regardless of what coinage is used.

Additionally, the real estate crash didn't affect all world regions equally. It barely affected some of the countries in the control group. Also, without the Euro, the Euro crisis would obviously not have happened in the same way, and the fall-out from the 2008 crisis may have impacted countries like Greece or Italy more (or less) depending on how the national government managed it, rather than how the ECB managed it.

While I understand the setup, as I cannot really think of a good way of building a comparative study of this kind otherwise, but it is still exceedingly speculative, and I would personally not put much stock in it. The criteria for choosing the control group are completely subjective, and choosing different criteria would result in different comparison countries, and thus different results.

Thus I'd like to know whether the criteria were set a priori, or were cherry picked to give a result that fuels certain europhobes' points just before the upcoming elections. That said, Wilders can't be happy with this report :D
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2019-02-28 20:08:46
February 28 2019 19:54 GMT
#24560
also an interesting tidbit from the DW article

These figures did not consider politics, reform and other external factors. Although researchers said this method was "far superior to other methods," they also said that "a lack of reliable empirical data" made the analysis difficult.


Assuming that Italy behaves like a 'control group' country at the other end of the world with literally no attention paid to the actual domestic political or business structure seems nonsensical to be honest.

Also what is quite revealing is the choice of only 8 countries. What about Estonia, Slovakia or Slovenia, the study tells us

this is the only way to ensure that the result of the analysis has not been distorted by accession to the EU and its internal market


But this is just terrible statistics, because being a member of the internal market was a significant reason for countries to integrate in the first place. That's like saying, "if I control for gender, there's no sexism".
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