|
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
I am so upset about the talk of new German elections lol.
Before the elections I made a bet with a visiting German masters student in my lab that the outcome would be a black/green minority government, so when the FDP pulled out I was like "YES, Victory!!". But now it seems like thats not happening ><.
Black/green still makes so much sense to me though. Merkel is on the left flank of her party and a minority government where she gets to negotiate with and play different wings of parliament against each other on a case to case basis seems to fit her rather pragmatic and centrist style well. Get the SPD vote for a Eurozone budget and macing Macron happy, and FDP for "business friendly" tax cuts. I dont see how either of them could refuse.
|
If I had to guess I'd say reelections won't really make the situations worse for the CDU, as in I don't think they'd lose much if any votes.
Realistically I could see FDP losing votes right now simply for leaving and maybe a couple more SPD votes lost but not much.
AfD, Die Linke, Greens I don't see losing votes if reelection happens and 2 of those parties are part of the "we don't want to make a coalition with them" camp so what's the point of reelections?
|
Why would the FDP lose votes ? They left, because they decided to not agree with things that are against their election promises. So their core should be happy. I expect them to win more votes and I expect Merkel to lose.
I expect AfD to win even more than last elections.
|
Merkel isn't really a person for constant negotiations. Especially from a comparatively weak standpoint the CDU has now. Even more so with the CSU being in total disarray, reducing their power of negotiation even more.
The CSU has less votes than the Greens - nationwide. (even though thats kinda hyperbole because they are only listed in bavaria, it's arguable that people would vote either CSU or CDU but not SPD/FDP/LINKE/Greens or CSU)
I also think that reelections are as (un)likely as a miniority government because I don't really see people shifting their vote.
FDP's basis is supposed to strongly support the decision not to form a coalition so I'm not convinced that they'd lose sufficient votes to render a "christian"-green coalition feasible.
What one can hope for is that people turning their backs on established parties will return to them. Though that just might support the notion that you, as an established party, just have to sow chaos to have the flock return to you. Not a good thing for democracy imo but I kinda hope for it nonetheless and at the same time hope that politics gets a little closer to the people, while maintaining the perspective of the grand questions of our time (e.g. climate change, automation, demographic shift, global inequality, ...)
|
On November 22 2017 07:44 Pr0wler wrote:
Why would the FDP lose votes ? They left, because they decided to not agree with things that are against their election promises. So their core should be happy. I expect them to win more votes and I expect Merkel to lose.
I expect AfD to win even more than last elections.
Going into opposition only to do nothing at all when the alternative is getting at least something done is probably really bad for them. Especially for a party like them that didn't make the 5% last time around. I really don't think going into opposition by choice is something their votes will appreciate.
As a note, I don't think any shift would be big enough to change any of the problems though. I'm talking like FDP maybe losing 2-4% if reelections happen.
Wether or not it'll happen idk. Both minority government as well as re-elections seem super unlikely.
In fact our President (yes we do have one) already said he is against re-elections more or less. If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Jamaica happens anyways and people get their shit together or Merkel being forced to form a minority government right now.
Really don't see re-elections happening.
|
Western media is irresponsible and giving a voice to Russian propaganda:
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/nov/20/russian-troll-army-tweets-cited-more-than-80-times-in-uk-media
Members of a Russian “troll army” were quoted more than 80 times across British-read media outlets before Twitter revealed their identity and banned them, a Guardian investigation has shown.
Some posts from the accounts were embedded in articles to provide apparently local reportage and pictures from the sites of disasters and crime scenes around the world. In fact, Twitter claims, all the accounts were run from the offices of the Internet Research Agency in St Petersburg, alleged to be the headquarters of Russia’s troll army.
Other accounts managed to work their way into more light-hearted coverage, quoted in roundups of Twitter jokes on topics such as “five words to ruin sex” or “make me hate you in one phrase”.
Still others were quoted as part of apparently grassroots reaction to news events such as the death of Fidel Castro or the US ban on travellers from six majority-Muslim nations.
The investigation will raise concerns about the extent of Russian penetration of the British media, which would have disseminated their messages to a much wider audience than they might get on Twitter alone.
Its basically journalists failing to vet the things they "report on." We can't control who hires internet trolls to push agendas, but journalists could certainly take responsibility and put in some effort not to do the agenda pushing for those who hire the trolls. Idiots.
|
On November 22 2017 07:44 Pr0wler wrote:
Why would the FDP lose votes ? They left, because they decided to not agree with things that are against their election promises. So their core should be happy. I expect them to win more votes and I expect Merkel to lose.
I expect AfD to win even more than last elections.
They left because they don't have any politicians left and because they ran a campaign without any content. They could have easily agreed with the greens on social liberal issues and the greens even conceded some very core points, and they could have made an econ program work with the CDU.
Their problem is that they've run a populist campaign targeting Merkel's security and immigration policies, they're very close to being a non-toxic AfD. If they cannot manage to govern with the greens and CDU I don't see how they intent to govern at all.
The AfD has broken up the conservative side of the parliament, so black/yellow isn't a realistic option any more.
|
I don't think that participation in the government at any cost is valued highly by the general population. Usually it's a sign of unprincipled politicians. If their campaign was targeting Merkel, why would they want to govern with her and why would their voters be happy with that coalition based on nothing ? Such coalition most likely will worsen their situation instead of improving it.
|
On November 22 2017 07:44 Pr0wler wrote:
Why would the FDP lose votes ? They left, because they decided to not agree with things that are against their election promises. So their core should be happy. I expect them to win more votes and I expect Merkel to lose.
I expect AfD to win even more than last elections.
I would have expected the FDP to lose votes because they campaigned, amongst other things, with "Doing nothing is abuse of power" and "sometimes a whole country has to dare to make a big jump" (not literal translation). So their actions kinda contradict that, so I thought it would be reasonable that they would lose some support.
However, you are right, quite the opposite has happened, and the FDP seems to gain more support.
|
The FDP is like the definition of unprincipled and the way they talk themselves out of this is just very obviously dishonest.
And, at least yesterday, the FDP was blamed for it and isn't gaining support?
![[image loading]](https://www.tagesschau.de/grafik-437~_v-videowebl.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/grafik-433~_v-videowebl.jpg)
|
|
|
There are many Merkel-voters in my opinion, which won't vote for CDU after her and will probably swing towards SPD and Greens, even without her retiring, simply because she couldn't provide the stability these people are looking for. And at the right side of the CDU the AfD and FDP just have the better "change"-vibe. Lindner not going for the Jamaika-coalition is going to be good for the FDP in my opinion.
The CDU has only one chance, which is a minority government and getting rid of Merkel eventually. Well, I guess the bigger chance is the SPD outright selfdestructing and forming another coalition with her.
|
On November 22 2017 16:24 Pr0wler wrote:
I don't think that participation in the government at any cost is valued highly by the general population. Usually it's a sign of unprincipled politicians. If their campaign was targeting Merkel, why would they want to govern with her and why would their voters be happy with that coalition based on nothing ? Such coalition most likely will worsen their situation instead of improving it.
There's a difference between being pulled over the table and just running because you're trying to pull a stunt. This coalition would have included three centre-right parties and one centre-left party. If anybody could have plausibly stormed out of the negotiations claiming they are not represented I would have figured it'd be the Greens.
|
I'm at least one of those guys who voted for them~
On November 22 2017 16:24 Pr0wler wrote:
I don't think that participation in the government at any cost is valued highly by the general population. Usually it's a sign of unprincipled politicians. If their campaign was targeting Merkel, why would they want to govern with her and why would their voters be happy with that coalition based on nothing ? Such coalition most likely will worsen their situation instead of improving it.
I think that's something that holds true usually with parties that get into the Bundestag regularly, be it in government or opposition position.
When you have a party that made it in again (after dropping out last time) on the other hand turning down is a bad thing imo. The FDP is historically the closest to CDU/CSU so while they did target Merkel a bit you still have to keep in mind her CDU/CSU party is their closest ally and they don't want to work with her (arguably because of the Greens).
But like someone else said, if they don't want to govern in this situation they won't ever govern unless they somehow manage to get 30+% or something like that all by themselves in a 6 party landscape. It's just not going to happen and their roughly 10% is already a fairly good result for them.
The FDP is basicly telling their voters that they're going to be an opposition only party (compareable to Die Linke, AfD I guess?) in a way. And I don't think people want that.
You can have your principles and go into opposition (I don't think it would hurt the Greens at all for example had they made that statement) but if that's all you do it's kinda shitty.
At the very least speaking for myself, I won't vote for them again unless there's some pretty damn good explanation for walking out of the room. But even then I'd probably end up voting CDU or Greens in 4 years~
|
|
|
You can not do anything wrong when you are opposition party,and the government usually alienates a few people and they then go to opposition partys. Maybe fdp voters don't mind that much that they wont govern,preventing merkel from governing could be enough for them. Like all the afd voters they know they wont go govern and they don't expect to either I think.
Forming a government is kinda unattractive for any small party to be honest,they wont be able to get much of their program through yet they will still take the blame for everything the government does. And even if it all goes well then the bigger partys will get most of the credit and the voters might think:hmm I might as well vote a big party because it is more stable and it doesn't really matter for policy in the end (they could be wrong with that thought btw!)
Fdp is former east german communist party? They wont gain to much votes then I think nor lose to many. If people want make a "protest" vote then they might be more acceptable then afd.
|
On November 23 2017 04:50 pmh wrote:
You can not do anything wrong when you are opposition party,and the government usually alienates a few people and they then go to opposition partys. Maybe fdp voters don't mind that much that they wont govern,preventing merkel from governing could be enough for them. Like all the afd voters they know they wont go govern and they don't expect to either I think.
Forming a government is kinda unattractive for any small party to be honest,they wont be able to get much of their program through yet they will still take the blame for everything the government does. And even if it all goes well then the bigger partys will get most of the credit and the voters might think:hmm I might as well vote a big party because it is more stable and it doesn't really matter for policy in the end (they could be wrong with that thought btw!)
Fdp is former east german communist party? They wont gain to much votes then I think nor lose to many. If people want make a "protest" vote then they might be more acceptable then afd.
LOL No!
Until few ears ago they were the party with the most government participation in the Federal Republic of Germany. They are a liberal core party of Western Germany.
The only former eastern German party was the PDS, which then merged into "Die Linke" with the WASG, a group of former left wing SPD members, who seperated from the main party
|
On November 23 2017 04:50 pmh wrote:
You can not do anything wrong when you are opposition party,and the government usually alienates a few people and they then go to opposition partys. Maybe fdp voters don't mind that much that they wont govern,preventing merkel from governing could be enough for them. Like all the afd voters they know they wont go govern and they don't expect to either I think.
Forming a government is kinda unattractive for any small party to be honest,they wont be able to get much of their program through yet they will still take the blame for everything the government does. And even if it all goes well then the bigger partys will get most of the credit and the voters might think:hmm I might as well vote a big party because it is more stable and it doesn't really matter for policy in the end (they could be wrong with that thought btw!)
Fdp is former east german communist party? They wont gain to much votes then I think nor lose to many. If people want make a "protest" vote then they might be more acceptable then afd.
FDP is the closest thing we have to libertarians I guess? Not really pants on head "NO TAXES, NO REGULATION NO MATTER WHAT" à la Ayn Rand but they do want to reduce both. Generally seen as pro-business, hence why comming to an agreement with the Greens is seen as difficult but also why CDU+CSU are their biggest allies.
And like said above, they used to be pretty much kingmakers. Recently it has been more hard-locked that it's only SPD+Greens vs CDU+FDP but voters certainly don't want them to be in the opposition... or at least I don't.
It's not a protest-party AT ALL... but what I'm getting at here with my more recent posts is that it really feels like it's turning into one if they can't even come together in this situation and hence me saying I won't be voting them again.
If that's what they are my vote is better off somewhere else that tries to actually shape Germany.
For example, I might not agree with everything the Greens say but I do like their influence on some things. most notably their core issue of keeping CDU+FDP in check when it comes to being too business friendly with car/energy industry etc.
Or it's just going to end up a CDU vote, idk yet~
|
Finally. I'm glad they managed to sentence him before his death.
|
In July 1997, a Yugoslav army officer named Milan Gunj received an urgent phone call at home in Belgrade. Something strange was happening at work and he was needed immediately.
Staff Sergeant Gunj’s job could best be described as that of an army hotelier. He had risen through the ranks from barracks cook and caterer to the rather pleasant task of looking after a string of gated and guarded holiday homes the Yugoslav military had traditionally provided for its top brass. The man calling him on this summer day was a soldier who worked in one of these bucolic retreats, at a place called Rajac in the wooded hills of central Serbia. Some unexpected guests had arrived. The soldier dared not say any more on the phone, but he was insistent Gunj come as soon as possible.
A few moments later, he received a second call. This time it was from an aide in the office of the Yugoslav chief of the general staff, ordering Gunj to get to Rajac immediately and deal with his visitors. He would be told what he needed to know when he arrived. He got in his car and headed south.
Two hours later, he arrived at Rajac after dusk and found a group of about a dozen armed men in civilian clothes milling around the entrance, and then the reason for all the subterfuge came striding out of the hotel lobby, as if he had just commandeered the place: the unmistakable barrel-chested figure and blunt ruddy face Gunj had seen in a hundred news reports of the Bosnian war – General Ratko Mladić.
“I was somewhat surprised, scared, and confused by this turn of events,” Gunj recalled. “First of all, because this was in my compound, and I had no information that this would happen. And secondly, I know that Mr Ratko Mladić has been accused of certain acts by the Hague tribunal. So at that point in time I was in a state of panic.”
Gunj was by no means alone in feeling terror in Mladić’s presence. The general stood accused of the worst atrocities Europe had witnessed since the Nazi era. The Bosnian Serb general had overseen three years of the Sarajevo siege and the daily attrition of its residents by shelling and sniper fire. He was also there when the Muslim enclave of Srebrenica was overrun by his troops in July 1995. Presenting himself as an instrument of national retribution, he declared the sacking of Srebrenica as payback against “the Turks” for a massacre of Serbs under the Ottoman empire. Mladić reassured panicked captive Muslim women that their loved ones would be safe at the same time that his soldiers were rounding up and slaughtering 8,000 husbands and sons. The beetroot-faced officer who had turned up to stay at Gunj’s vacation home was the world’s most wanted man.
Mladić and his entourage stayed for a month in Rajac before departing – again in the middle of the night – for another military resort, at Stragari, near the city of Kragujevac, a more elaborate sylvan hideaway with sports grounds, swimming pools, and table tennis. For the benefit of hunters, the surrounding woods were stocked with deer and mouflon, a species of wild sheep with flamboyantly curved horns.
General Djordje Ćurčin, an old family friend of Mladić, described a typical day with the fugitive: “We talked, we walked through the woods, we played some chess. We also played cards, table tennis. We had lunch. And then we walked some more.”
Such was the determination of the Yugoslav general staff to keep Mladić both comfortable and hidden that an entire department, the 30th Personnel Centre, originally set up to oversee the social welfare of former Bosnian Serb officers, was tasked with looking after him. A substantial personal protection force was established.
“There was a bounty of $5m on Mladić’s head, and it was considered necessary to set up a unit that would protect him from various bounty hunters and criminals. This unit was attached to the 30th Personnel Centre in Belgrade and consisted of Republika Srpska army members, at times about 100 of them,” said Jovo Djogo, a former officer with the centre who went on to be Mladić’s personal security chief.
The Yugoslav government of Slobodan Milošević staunchly denied any responsibility for the mass atrocities committed by the Bosnian Serb military, but the elaborate measures taken in Belgrade to tend to Mladić’s safety and comfort after the war are a testament to close ties. In the aftermath of the Bosnian war, the Yugoslav army was an overwhelmingly Serb force. And as far as its commanders were concerned, Mladić was one of them.
Along with a formidable phalanx of guards, Mladić had a driver, his own cook, even his own personal waiter who would travel with him back to Rajac in the late winter of each year. When the season was over and the deer hunters had departed, the entourage would return like a travelling court. During this period, Mladić also spent a considerable amount of time in Belgrade, at his family home on Blagoja Parovića Street in the upmarket suburb of Košutnjak. He went out to restaurants and football matches in the Serbian capital. Video of these days shows a relaxed Mladić playing table tennis at Stragari, theatrically ruing a missed shot, and presiding over family celebrations.
The men and women who helped keep the fugitive general in this contented bubble saw him as a national hero, embodying the martial virtues of Serb legends from other eras. Somehow they managed to persuade themselves that within this crude stub of a man was an echo of Serbia’s heroic age. But just in case their loyalty should ever waver, they were shown photographs of their children – a characteristically direct reminder of the high price paid by informants.
In his 14 years on the run, Mladić depended on a succession of institutions and groups to keep him from being captured: first the Serbian military establishment; then a closer coterie of his Bosnian Serb wartime lieutenants; and finally, when those concentric rings fell away, like layers of a withered onion, his troubled family. But the common factor was fear.
Source
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
