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UK Politics Mega-thread - Page 369

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bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
July 28 2017 14:23 GMT
#7361
This conception that the British financial sector is going to move to the continent is the most ridiculous idea in the entire discourse. If there is no deal and financial transactions between EU states and London are restricted, the costs will be very severe indeed for the continent, with banks failing overnight. Pray that the silly MEPs who think this punishes the UK and not the EU see sense before that happens. I mean seriously, think that through before saying it. What happens if you restrict access to London overnight? Everyone is going to start using a European financial sector that... doesn't exist? Or will you cripple all EU businesses by forcing them to pay extra fees to use London services? It's just daft. The EU's second financial centre is not Dublin or Frankfurt or Paris - it's New York.

Also, 'just consumers'. Just the EU's biggest external market. No big deal.

If the EU gambles on bullying the UK into staying, as I think many are inclined to do, it's going to backfire hard.
Razyda
Profile Joined March 2013
756 Posts
July 28 2017 15:48 GMT
#7362
Bardtown, I am asking honestly, once UK is out of EU what reasons do they have to stay? Who do they going to do business with? US - they have New York, Asia - Singapore and Hong Kong, Muslim countries - interest rates are forbidden, you tried and pretty much gave up. So once again why would they stay??

And I think you and a lot of British people have this misconception about punishing UK. EU doesnt try to punish UK, they trying to mitigate damage/ profit from Brexit, if in the result UK suffer, well, tough luck, you won remember?

"Also, 'just consumers'. Just the EU's biggest external market. No big deal."

Thats pretty much like saying that Chelsea is biggest foreign market of London.

And yes, just consumers and lets be honest here you still going to buy from EU, you will just pay more, because end of the day it is always consumer who pay the price difference, companies sure as hell wont be doing that.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42840 Posts
July 28 2017 16:05 GMT
#7363
London has a huge advantage of already being established. As I've said here a dozen times already, financial centres can't just up and move. Individual companies can but they rely upon an existing interconnected ecosystem of related financial services firms, a ready supply of experienced labour, and an economic/legislative infrastructure designed with them in mind. It's the same reason that despite the insane costs of being based in California (corporate taxes, high costs of living and so forth), Silicon Valley is still Silicon Valley.

Given an unrelenting pressure and enough time another European hub could grow to replace London. Absolutely. It could definitely happen. Hell, it could happen even if the UK stayed in the EU. And probably would, Britain's star is fading. However the idea that it's going to happen overnight is silly. The degree of interconnected and interdependent systems that keep these companies in place is difficult to explain. For two hundred years London has drawn the best and brightest from around the world to itself and encouraged them to make a home there. It's not getting transplanted easily.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
July 28 2017 16:29 GMT
#7364
What reason do they have to be there now, as opposed to being in Paris? Those are the reasons they have to stay. Infrastructure, capital, business friendly politics, common law, etc. London is world competitive, so in the same way that Brits will continue to buy German cars if they are a bit more expensive, Europeans will continue to use British financial services if they are a bit more expensive. A huge proportion of their trade is already outside the EU, btw. It's a global industry, with global businesses, and none of London's peers are inside the EU. Time zones are also important. There will always be a European trading hub, and as it stands every other financial centre in Europe is decades behind London in terms of infrastructure. And with regards to the ultramodern tech that is going to shape the coming decades the difference is only more pronounced. Restrict access to these services and you make your entire economy less competitive in a single move.

It's actually very simple for the EU to maximise profit/minimise damage. Everybody knows that free trade is beneficial. But if they allow free trade without free movement/legal supremacy then it will be blatant that the UK made the right decision in leaving, because we will have achieved our objectives while simultaneously saving money, and every other north-western EU state will want the same deal. So punishment is obligatory, despite the fact that limiting free trade or whatever else they come up with will also hurt the EU.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18830 Posts
July 31 2017 17:39 GMT
#7365
LONDON (Reuters) - The automatic right of European Union citizens to live and work in Britain will end in March 2019 with Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman said on Monday, after her ministers publicly differed over the shape of the divorce with the EU.

Since May's failed gamble on a snap election last month, the future of Brexit has been thrown into question with squabbling between her ministers over the pace, tone and terms of Britain's departure from the club it joined in 1973.

May, who on Monday interrupted a three-week holiday to attend a World War One commemoration ceremony, has faced public pressure to temper her plans for a clean break from the EU.

The level of discord is such that one opposition politician spoke of "civil war" within the government over Brexit and some of the bloc's most powerful politicians have even raised the prospect of Britain scrapping Brexit.

May has repeatedly said Brexit will take place as scheduled in late March 2019.

But the Archbishop of Canterbury said the chance of this was "infinitesimally small" because political wrangling will prevent the detailed work that is needed.

Justin Welby, who is the spiritual head of the Anglican communion of millions of Christians globally and sits in the House of Lords, said domestic political wrangling would impede the detailed work that is needed for Brexit.

In response, May's spokesman said the government remained committed to the exit timetable.


Amid Brexit squabbling, PM May's spokesman says EU free movement to end in 2019
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21725 Posts
July 31 2017 21:44 GMT
#7366
On August 01 2017 02:39 farvacola wrote:
Show nested quote +
LONDON (Reuters) - The automatic right of European Union citizens to live and work in Britain will end in March 2019 with Brexit, Prime Minister Theresa May's spokesman said on Monday, after her ministers publicly differed over the shape of the divorce with the EU.

Since May's failed gamble on a snap election last month, the future of Brexit has been thrown into question with squabbling between her ministers over the pace, tone and terms of Britain's departure from the club it joined in 1973.

May, who on Monday interrupted a three-week holiday to attend a World War One commemoration ceremony, has faced public pressure to temper her plans for a clean break from the EU.

The level of discord is such that one opposition politician spoke of "civil war" within the government over Brexit and some of the bloc's most powerful politicians have even raised the prospect of Britain scrapping Brexit.

May has repeatedly said Brexit will take place as scheduled in late March 2019.

But the Archbishop of Canterbury said the chance of this was "infinitesimally small" because political wrangling will prevent the detailed work that is needed.

Justin Welby, who is the spiritual head of the Anglican communion of millions of Christians globally and sits in the House of Lords, said domestic political wrangling would impede the detailed work that is needed for Brexit.

In response, May's spokesman said the government remained committed to the exit timetable.


Amid Brexit squabbling, PM May's spokesman says EU free movement to end in 2019

This is news to Brits?
Yes, in March 2019, 2 years after article 50, free movement will end unless a new deal involving free movement is reached.
And Brexit will happen regardless of any deal being reached or approved, unless the EU states unanimously vote to extend the period.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
July 31 2017 22:10 GMT
#7367
Are there specific "end dates" for other parts of the EU benefits?
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9203 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-07-31 22:44:52
July 31 2017 22:17 GMT
#7368
On August 01 2017 07:10 Plansix wrote:
Are there specific "end dates" for other parts of the EU benefits?


3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
You're now breathing manually
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21725 Posts
July 31 2017 22:19 GMT
#7369
On August 01 2017 07:10 Plansix wrote:
Are there specific "end dates" for other parts of the EU benefits?

Everything ends 2 years after article 50.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-07-31 22:56:56
July 31 2017 22:55 GMT
#7370
The question at hand is about what shape the transition will take. People are concerned that the transition period will not have a clear end date and that the government will collapse beforehand, resulting in the next government remaining in the transitional state and never actually leaving. This is supposed to be reassurance that the transition phase will not allow for unrestricted immigration.

EU inclined Tories are pushing for a longer transition. Some of them may genuinely think that is the best course of action, but others are certainly plotting to prevent leaving the market/customs union. They are close to overplaying their hand, though, in my opinion. It's very hard to imagine them gaining any ground if there is a leadership contest because the membership are so eurosceptic. If David Davis is the next PM I think it's safe to say Hammond won't be in the cabinet.
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-07-31 23:05:29
July 31 2017 23:03 GMT
#7371
exactly. That statement from May isn't anything new, it's just clarification on her stance amid more and more different opinions being voiced even among her ranks about this matter. It's basicly her saying that she won't cave in on ending this, not even to get something else from the EU. In contrast to making a post-Brexit deal that still includes free movement despite having left "cleanly" because it's in the new deal as well.
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21725 Posts
July 31 2017 23:09 GMT
#7372
On August 01 2017 07:55 bardtown wrote:
The question at hand is about what shape the transition will take. People are concerned that the transition period will not have a clear end date and that the government will collapse beforehand, resulting in the next government remaining in the transitional state and never actually leaving. This is supposed to be reassurance that the transition phase will not allow for unrestricted immigration.

EU inclined Tories are pushing for a longer transition. Some of them may genuinely think that is the best course of action, but others are certainly plotting to prevent leaving the market/customs union. They are close to overplaying their hand, though, in my opinion. It's very hard to imagine them gaining any ground if there is a leadership contest because the membership are so eurosceptic. If David Davis is the next PM I think it's safe to say Hammond won't be in the cabinet.

What transition period?
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
July 31 2017 23:14 GMT
#7373
On August 01 2017 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2017 07:55 bardtown wrote:
The question at hand is about what shape the transition will take. People are concerned that the transition period will not have a clear end date and that the government will collapse beforehand, resulting in the next government remaining in the transitional state and never actually leaving. This is supposed to be reassurance that the transition phase will not allow for unrestricted immigration.

EU inclined Tories are pushing for a longer transition. Some of them may genuinely think that is the best course of action, but others are certainly plotting to prevent leaving the market/customs union. They are close to overplaying their hand, though, in my opinion. It's very hard to imagine them gaining any ground if there is a leadership contest because the membership are so eurosceptic. If David Davis is the next PM I think it's safe to say Hammond won't be in the cabinet.

What transition period?

Part of the deal the EU/UK are negotiating.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21725 Posts
July 31 2017 23:21 GMT
#7374
On August 01 2017 08:14 bardtown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 01 2017 08:09 Gorsameth wrote:
On August 01 2017 07:55 bardtown wrote:
The question at hand is about what shape the transition will take. People are concerned that the transition period will not have a clear end date and that the government will collapse beforehand, resulting in the next government remaining in the transitional state and never actually leaving. This is supposed to be reassurance that the transition phase will not allow for unrestricted immigration.

EU inclined Tories are pushing for a longer transition. Some of them may genuinely think that is the best course of action, but others are certainly plotting to prevent leaving the market/customs union. They are close to overplaying their hand, though, in my opinion. It's very hard to imagine them gaining any ground if there is a leadership contest because the membership are so eurosceptic. If David Davis is the next PM I think it's safe to say Hammond won't be in the cabinet.

What transition period?

Part of the deal the EU/UK are negotiating.

hm, ok thanks
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Reivax
Profile Joined June 2011
Sweden214 Posts
August 01 2017 10:56 GMT
#7375
I would find it plausible that the transition period is extended until such a time that Brexit decision is rolled back. Considering the significant hassle that might follow (British nuclear technology being dependent on (predominantly) french state secrets for example, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/27/uk-exit-eu-atomic-treaty-brexit-euratom-hinkley-point-c).

Right now, it does not seem politically feasible to argue for a revote or an outright cancellation of Brexit, but as time goes on public opinion may well change.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 01 2017 11:44 GMT
#7376
Energy giant Centrica, which owns British Gas, confirmed the end of its long-standing price freeze after it mistakenly published an incomplete statement about the price hike on its website on Monday.

It means the average annual dual fuel bill for a typical household on a standard tariff will rise by £76 to £1,120 - an increase of 7.3%.

The company said gas prices would not be going up.

British Gas said the increase for electricity was its first since November 2013 and that it would give a £76 credit to more than 200,000 vulnerable customers to protect them.

Pre-payment meter customers are not affected by the price hike.

Research suggests that British Gas should be cutting bills, not putting them up, as the wholesale cost of energy has been falling.

Analysis of energy regulator Ofgem's supplier cost index by collective switching site The Big Deal shows that since a peak in December 2016, the costs for energy companies have fallen by 9%.

But British Gas chief executive Mark Hodges asserted "wholesale prices during the last 12 months have not gone down" and that the price hike was down to "cost pressures".

He told Sky News: "We haven't taken this decision lightly. We realise that 3.1 million people are affected. But we have in the end had to respond, like many of our competitors, to the underlying increases we have seen in electricity.

"Our costs have gone up over the past few years by around 16%, so in the end, despite our own efforts to try and keep our costs under control, our efforts to improve our service, we have just had to make this difficult decision."

Mr Hodges would not be drawn on whether the firm expected to lose customers over the price increase.

"Customers do have choice," he said. "They can move to many other companies... and that puts the pressure on us, and that is why we don't make decisions like today's decision lightly.

"We are very thoughtful about the impact on our customers, and on the number of customers that we are able to serve."

Asked whether customers could see their prices go down in the future, he replied: "We always want to keep our prices as low as possible... so any opportunity we have to either reduce our own costs, or if the costs that we incur that we don't control go down, of course we would consider passing that on as quickly as we can to our customers."

Rising energy bills are squeezing households as inflation also bites through the increasing cost of food shopping - while at the same time latest figures show wage growth has been slowing.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
August 01 2017 12:00 GMT
#7377
On August 01 2017 19:56 Reivax wrote:
I would find it plausible that the transition period is extended until such a time that Brexit decision is rolled back. Considering the significant hassle that might follow (British nuclear technology being dependent on (predominantly) french state secrets for example, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jan/27/uk-exit-eu-atomic-treaty-brexit-euratom-hinkley-point-c).

Right now, it does not seem politically feasible to argue for a revote or an outright cancellation of Brexit, but as time goes on public opinion may well change.

Which is precisely why an indefinite or 'Norway style' transition will not be accepted. People really need to accept that this is happening.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9661 Posts
August 01 2017 15:56 GMT
#7378


"Fuck the economy for my kids and grandkids, I want all the foreigners gone when I'm dead so its worth it."
RIP Meatloaf <3
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
August 01 2017 17:05 GMT
#7379
Having principles is hard for this generation to understand.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11534 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-08-01 17:22:42
August 01 2017 17:11 GMT
#7380
On August 02 2017 02:05 bardtown wrote:
Having principles is hard for this generation to understand.


Come on.

Do you really have to act that arrogantly?

If someone disagrees with you, it is because they don't understand "principles".

And not, maybe, because they have different principles than you do, and, Britain for the British is not their highest priority above anything else?
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