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UK Politics Mega-thread - Page 224

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LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 14:25 GMT
#4461
If military alliances truly made war so expensive it would not be viable then WWI would never have happened.

As it is, someone is clearly just using Russia as a phantom threat to ask for more money. The US also does this all the time, pretending its best-in-the-world tech doesn't hold up to countries with a fraction of the defense budget.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Simberto
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Germany11835 Posts
September 18 2016 14:41 GMT
#4462
WW1 was a war that was so expensive it was not viable. Sadly stupid people on all sides didn't realize that in time, and then they couldn't figure out a way to get out of it again. Which i guess proves your point that wars that are so expensive that they are not viable can still happen because people are stupid.

Still, no country can solo defend itself against the rest of the world, and few countries can solo defend against russia. Probably no country can solo defend against the US, but some can turn it into a stalemate where everyone dies. Solo defending is simply not what a military is there for.
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
September 18 2016 14:46 GMT
#4463
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
September 18 2016 14:50 GMT
#4464
On September 18 2016 23:46 a_flayer wrote:
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.

Gotta fuel the paranoid NATO narrative to justify its costly existence...
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 15:11 GMT
#4465
On September 18 2016 23:41 Simberto wrote:
WW1 was a war that was so expensive it was not viable. Sadly stupid people on all sides didn't realize that in time, and then they couldn't figure out a way to get out of it again. Which i guess proves your point that wars that are so expensive that they are not viable can still happen because people are stupid.

Still, no country can solo defend itself against the rest of the world, and few countries can solo defend against russia. Probably no country can solo defend against the US, but some can turn it into a stalemate where everyone dies. Solo defending is simply not what a military is there for.

That's the point, wars will happen even if they are "not viable" from an economic standpoint. Hell, even with MAD, people prod the limits of how far they can go without starting a nuclear war.

Very few countries can solo defend themselves from larger countries with significantly more military resources. Perhaps more important is to ask how such a scenario would occur, given geography, and more importantly, why such a conflict would arise in the first place. There's no particularly good reason to expect that the UK would have a full-scale war with Russia, the same as there's no particularly good reason to expect the UK would have a full-scale war with the US or China. So the sane thing to do is to have a military that is capable of defending the country and performing necessary expeditions abroad, without spending money to try to fight something that is, to put it lightly, an uphill battle.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22363 Posts
September 18 2016 15:24 GMT
#4466
On September 18 2016 23:46 a_flayer wrote:
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.

Not like they had a logical reason to invade the Crimea and that didnt stop them.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 15:28 GMT
#4467
On September 19 2016 00:24 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 18 2016 23:46 a_flayer wrote:
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.

Not like they had a logical reason to invade the Crimea and that didnt stop them.

That's not really true. There's far more reason to take control of a strategic naval outpost that was under risk of being taken from their control (an explicit goal of NATO in Ukraine regime change under some viewpoints) than to attack a first world nation on the other side of Europe for no particular reason.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
September 18 2016 15:40 GMT
#4468
Hell, even protecting the people of Crimea from the rebel Ukrainian government and their neo-nazi army division... And wasn't the government trying to push through a bill that would make Ukrainian the official language even though the people in Crimea primarily spoke Russian? That was the final trigger of why they wanted to leave the Ukraine, was it not? Aside from the fact that they didn't vote for the rebel government to take over... There are so many factors at play here, I can't even begin to fathom how you can say they had no logical reason.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
Lonyo
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United Kingdom3884 Posts
September 18 2016 15:45 GMT
#4469
The main issue was 50 odd years ago giving Crimea to the Ukraine in the first place.

But even so, Russia would be more likely to do things in its own back yard than randomly attack the UK. Same with China. For the powers that could easily destroy us (China, US, Russia), none of them would have a reason to go for the UK over any other major power. We aren't in their sphere of influence or they have nothing to gain from attacking the UK.
HOLY CHECK!
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands22363 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-09-18 15:58:02
September 18 2016 15:56 GMT
#4470
On September 19 2016 00:28 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2016 00:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On September 18 2016 23:46 a_flayer wrote:
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.

Not like they had a logical reason to invade the Crimea and that didnt stop them.

That's not really true. There's far more reason to take control of a strategic naval outpost that was under risk of being taken from their control (an explicit goal of NATO in Ukraine regime change under some viewpoints) than to attack a first world nation on the other side of Europe for no particular reason.

While I dont think that Russia has any plans/interest in attacking the UK, or any other EU/NATO country for that matter they have shown themselves to act 'irrational'.

Heck the Ukraine wanted to join NATO to protect itself from Russia who then went on right ahead and proved their point.
a Ukraine NATO membership and the Russian naval base could have easily co-existed because the Ukraine would have joined NATO they (in theory) no longer had to fear Russian aggression.

On September 19 2016 00:40 a_flayer wrote:
Hell, even protecting the people of Crimea from the rebel Ukrainian government and their neo-nazi army division... And wasn't the government trying to push through a bill that would make Ukrainian the official language even though the people in Crimea primarily spoke Russian? That was the final trigger of why they wanted to leave the Ukraine, was it not? Aside from the fact that they didn't vote for the rebel government to take over... There are so many factors at play here, I can't even begin to fathom how you can say they had no logical reason.

I have no interest in discussing your 'interesting' view of EU/Russian relations yet again but no, there was no neo-nazi army threatening the Crimean people...
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-09-18 16:07:28
September 18 2016 16:03 GMT
#4471
It's an embarrassment because our military spending is comparable to Russia's and yet all indications are that we are significantly less capable, at least in some important areas. I think more significant than the risk of Russian attack on the UK itself is the risk of Russian attack on our new supercarriers, the point being that the centrepiece of our military is essentially worthless in a conflict with Russia because we don't have the capability to reliably defend them. So if it ever comes to war with Russia, our supercarriers will have to be involved in joint operations with the US or not used at all. Not ideal.

On September 19 2016 00:45 Lonyo wrote:
The main issue was 50 odd years ago giving Crimea to the Ukraine in the first place.

But even so, Russia would be more likely to do things in its own back yard than randomly attack the UK. Same with China. For the powers that could easily destroy us (China, US, Russia), none of them would have a reason to go for the UK over any other major power. We aren't in their sphere of influence or they have nothing to gain from attacking the UK.


China/Russia could not 'easily destroy us', unless you are referring to nuclear capabilities, in which case France could too. In terms of conventional military China can do nothing to us, and although Russia might win, it's far from clear cut and would be suicidally expensive.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 16:26 GMT
#4472
On September 19 2016 00:56 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2016 00:28 LegalLord wrote:
On September 19 2016 00:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On September 18 2016 23:46 a_flayer wrote:
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.

Not like they had a logical reason to invade the Crimea and that didnt stop them.

That's not really true. There's far more reason to take control of a strategic naval outpost that was under risk of being taken from their control (an explicit goal of NATO in Ukraine regime change under some viewpoints) than to attack a first world nation on the other side of Europe for no particular reason.

While I dont think that Russia has any plans/interest in attacking the UK, or any other EU/NATO country for that matter they have shown themselves to act 'irrational'.

Heck the Ukraine wanted to join NATO to protect itself from Russia who then went on right ahead and proved their point.
a Ukraine NATO membership and the Russian naval base could have easily co-existed because the Ukraine would have joined NATO they (in theory) no longer had to fear Russian aggression.

Show nested quote +
On September 19 2016 00:40 a_flayer wrote:
Hell, even protecting the people of Crimea from the rebel Ukrainian government and their neo-nazi army division... And wasn't the government trying to push through a bill that would make Ukrainian the official language even though the people in Crimea primarily spoke Russian? That was the final trigger of why they wanted to leave the Ukraine, was it not? Aside from the fact that they didn't vote for the rebel government to take over... There are so many factors at play here, I can't even begin to fathom how you can say they had no logical reason.

I have no interest in discussing your 'interesting' view of EU/Russian relations yet again but no, there was no neo-nazi army threatening the Crimean people...

Anyone with a moderate understanding of Russian and Ukrainian history would know that how Russia acted is very much in line with how Russia would have been expected to act in this circumstance. Now there's obviously no particular reason for most people to know that history if they aren't from Ukraine or Russia, but I will simply have to say that you are talking out of your ass when you say that Russia acted "irrationally" or that there is no streak of fascism within the Ukrainian government. It's simply a different set of considerations that make perfect sense when you know the facts, but that seem pretty ridiculous from the perspective of someone who really doesn't.

Similarly there's no reason to expect some war between Russia and the UK, at all.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 16:44 GMT
#4473
On September 19 2016 01:03 bardtown wrote:
It's an embarrassment because our military spending is comparable to Russia's and yet all indications are that we are significantly less capable, at least in some important areas. I think more significant than the risk of Russian attack on the UK itself is the risk of Russian attack on our new supercarriers, the point being that the centrepiece of our military is essentially worthless in a conflict with Russia because we don't have the capability to reliably defend them. So if it ever comes to war with Russia, our supercarriers will have to be involved in joint operations with the US or not used at all. Not ideal.

If there's one thing that US/Western/NATO military technology isn't, it's cost-efficient. The US spends 9 times as much on its military as Russia, and while it's certainly enough to be the undisputable best in the world, it's nowhere near 9 times as good as what Russia has. UK tech is similar to US but the budget is much smaller, with predictable results.

Sometimes you have to realize that ten 20-year-old warplanes would absolutely mop the floor with one cutting-edge jet, whether in terms of dogfighting or in terms of ability to perform missions, and that's about the price disparity between modern US planes (e.g. F-22, F-35) and slightly older Russian models (current and previous Mig/Su lines). A lot of what the Russians have fielded is remarkably low-tech, yet efficient and significantly less expensive to build.

Though Saudi Arabia and China both spend a hell of a lot of money with even less to show for it.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-09-18 17:24:27
September 18 2016 17:08 GMT
#4474
On September 19 2016 00:56 Gorsameth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2016 00:28 LegalLord wrote:
On September 19 2016 00:24 Gorsameth wrote:
On September 18 2016 23:46 a_flayer wrote:
What the fuck would Russia want from Europe? Its rich natural resources such as iron, coal, gas and oil? I mean seriously. Are they going to have our scientists mate with their women? I don't think they'd have to invade for that to happen. I hate this stupid "what if Russia attacks" crap that keeps going around.

Not like they had a logical reason to invade the Crimea and that didnt stop them.

That's not really true. There's far more reason to take control of a strategic naval outpost that was under risk of being taken from their control (an explicit goal of NATO in Ukraine regime change under some viewpoints) than to attack a first world nation on the other side of Europe for no particular reason.

While I dont think that Russia has any plans/interest in attacking the UK, or any other EU/NATO country for that matter they have shown themselves to act 'irrational'.

Heck the Ukraine wanted to join NATO to protect itself from Russia who then went on right ahead and proved their point.
a Ukraine NATO membership and the Russian naval base could have easily co-existed because the Ukraine would have joined NATO they (in theory) no longer had to fear Russian aggression.

Show nested quote +
On September 19 2016 00:40 a_flayer wrote:
Hell, even protecting the people of Crimea from the rebel Ukrainian government and their neo-nazi army division... And wasn't the government trying to push through a bill that would make Ukrainian the official language even though the people in Crimea primarily spoke Russian? That was the final trigger of why they wanted to leave the Ukraine, was it not? Aside from the fact that they didn't vote for the rebel government to take over... There are so many factors at play here, I can't even begin to fathom how you can say they had no logical reason.

I have no interest in discussing your 'interesting' view of EU/Russian relations yet again but no, there was no neo-nazi army threatening the Crimean people...


You're right in that the neo-nazi army division didn't come out of the woodworks until after the Crimean people voted to leave the Ukraine and applied to join the Russian Federation. But that doesn't mean they weren't already around and involved in general violence against minorities and violence during the expulsion of the elected Ukrainian government. I suppose that Crimea was relatively safe from them, though, and that certainly wouldn't be the primary reason for Russia to help the people there, but to say that Russia had no reason at all... I mean that is so much further from the truth than me suggesting that the Crimean people had to worry about neo-nazis in the Ukraine.

Also, the idea that NATO would tolerate a Russian military base in one of their member countries is laughable at best. I mean, come on, you cannot be serious. I looked up some of the things that changed my mind regarding Russia, if you have an hour or two to kill you may want to listen in. These are two talks by Stephen Cohen, who can explain it all much better than I can. I don't really know who he is, but he seems to have a very expansive and informed view on the subject.

+ Show Spoiler +





I'll leave this thread alone now lol
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2016-09-18 17:36:39
September 18 2016 17:35 GMT
#4475
On September 19 2016 01:44 LegalLord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2016 01:03 bardtown wrote:
It's an embarrassment because our military spending is comparable to Russia's and yet all indications are that we are significantly less capable, at least in some important areas. I think more significant than the risk of Russian attack on the UK itself is the risk of Russian attack on our new supercarriers, the point being that the centrepiece of our military is essentially worthless in a conflict with Russia because we don't have the capability to reliably defend them. So if it ever comes to war with Russia, our supercarriers will have to be involved in joint operations with the US or not used at all. Not ideal.

If there's one thing that US/Western/NATO military technology isn't, it's cost-efficient. The US spends 9 times as much on its military as Russia, and while it's certainly enough to be the undisputable best in the world, it's nowhere near 9 times as good as what Russia has. UK tech is similar to US but the budget is much smaller, with predictable results.

Sometimes you have to realize that ten 20-year-old warplanes would absolutely mop the floor with one cutting-edge jet, whether in terms of dogfighting or in terms of ability to perform missions, and that's about the price disparity between modern US planes (e.g. F-22, F-35) and slightly older Russian models (current and previous Mig/Su lines). A lot of what the Russians have fielded is remarkably low-tech, yet efficient and significantly less expensive to build.

Though Saudi Arabia and China both spend a hell of a lot of money with even less to show for it.


You can't compare the US/Russian militaries like that. The US' technological advantage results in them being the hegemonic naval/air power. In terms of comparative strength, it's not 9:1, it's 1:0. It's a fair assessment of the difficulties the UK would face against Russia, though.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 18:22 GMT
#4476
Naval power isn't really a winner-take-all game like it was 100+ years ago, since no country is really capable of denying another large navy access to the sea. Between airplanes, long-range missiles, submarines, and especially nuclear weapons, it's much easier to destroy a stronger navy with a weaker one. So no one can really deny anyone else access to the sea like the olden days when blockades were still a thing. Naval, and air power especially, is also very strongly dependent on favorable logistics, and often the easiest way to stop the enemy's aircraft is to just bomb their airbase, a concern that is not so apparent when the enemy is usually just terrorist factions but that will be much more apparent when a powerful nation-state is the opponent.

Ultimately in the modern era, the power of the military is in what you can accomplish using it, which is really quite proportional to the comparative strength of each nation. Locking down the sea isn't as viable as it used to be.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States43985 Posts
September 18 2016 19:35 GMT
#4477
I disagree re: naval power on both counts. 100+ years ago it was damn near impossible to stop another naval power from fucking up your shipping, even if you had superiority. The Scharnhorst and Gneisenau spent a very long time fucking up shipping because they could remain at sea for substantial amounts of time and could disappear in the open ocean before a fleet large enough to challenge them could be raised. A stronger naval power needs to have strength sufficient to win at all points in the ocean simultaneously, a weaker naval power need only have strength to inflict damage at one specific point. The disparity between strengths needed back then was colossal.

And even today naval power, along with bases all over the world, is the foundation of American military hegemony. The United States can operate all over the world because it has mobile floating bases of operation in its carriers.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
September 18 2016 20:47 GMT
#4478
The German strategy of WWI and beyond played a large role in showing how a weaker navy could stop a larger one. Navies are still important, but here's the point I was addressing: it no longer becomes exclusionary, in that being the strongest is a winner take all deal. The entire idea of the classic "command of the sea" doctrine is that having the strongest navy means that your opponent can't engage you directly, while you are free to send your maritime traffic across the world without having to worry about getting intercepted by the opposing navy because they can't leave port safely with your own strong navy keeping them at bay. Well nowadays there is a hell of a lot of means by which a larger fleet can be defeated by a smaller one, and means by which you can deny the "command of the sea" advantage if your fleet is weaker. The result is that it stops being a "winner take all" notion, i.e. a 1:0 relative strength, but one proportional to the navies and their power, i.e. an X:1 comparison.

The idea of air superiority is even more fragile than naval warfare if you look at it purely from a symmetrical warfare perspective. Sure, carriers are very useful for projecting power against small countries with weak air power, but against countries with substantial military strength they're just a massive target to be sunk. Land-based airfields are only somewhat less vulnerable in that you can bomb them but not sink them with submarines.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 20 2016 11:17 GMT
#4479
All uniformed staff in Greater Manchester Fire service could be made to reapply for their jobs.

Bosses at the emergency service have put all 1,017 firemen and women on notice and say it will be used as a ‘last resort’ in a dispute over a new shift system.

An emergency meeting of the Fire Brigades Union about the move is due to held on Tuesday.

In June, the GM Fire Authority agreed to axe 253 firefighters posts and to bring in a controversial 12-hour shift system from April next year.

In total the brigade has had to make cuts of £14.8m over four years.

It will mean the service, which will have about 1,000 firefighters by 2019 - less than half the 2,200 workforce it had in 1996.

Consultation about the management proposals are due to start start this week and last 45 days.

If no progress is made firefighters will be asked to voluntarily sign a new contract. As a final measure all staff will be issued with 12 weeks notice of redundancy and asked to reapply for their jobs - agreeing to the new contract.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Deleuze
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United Kingdom2102 Posts
September 22 2016 18:47 GMT
#4480
On September 20 2016 20:17 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Show nested quote +
All uniformed staff in Greater Manchester Fire service could be made to reapply for their jobs.

Bosses at the emergency service have put all 1,017 firemen and women on notice and say it will be used as a ‘last resort’ in a dispute over a new shift system.

An emergency meeting of the Fire Brigades Union about the move is due to held on Tuesday.

In June, the GM Fire Authority agreed to axe 253 firefighters posts and to bring in a controversial 12-hour shift system from April next year.

In total the brigade has had to make cuts of £14.8m over four years.

It will mean the service, which will have about 1,000 firefighters by 2019 - less than half the 2,200 workforce it had in 1996.

Consultation about the management proposals are due to start start this week and last 45 days.

If no progress is made firefighters will be asked to voluntarily sign a new contract. As a final measure all staff will be issued with 12 weeks notice of redundancy and asked to reapply for their jobs - agreeing to the new contract.


Source


That's crazy. How can they treat people who save lives like this.
“An image of thought called philosophy has been formed historically and it effectively stops people from thinking.” ― Gilles Deleuze, Dialogues II
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