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On March 11 2018 07:56 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2018 02:44 Plansix wrote:
More like a couple decades off. This is not the first time NK has come to the table and then drove up tensions soon after. They are dependent on having an outside threat to scare their citizens. Well, when you're dealing with an enemy that refuses to even talk to you before you surrender the sovereignty of your own nation, then I have some understanding as to how that drives up tensions. Seems I was wrong before though. Kim has suggested that he is willing to accept the US military presence in South Korea. Show nested quote +Instead, Kim only promised to stop nuclear and ballistic missile testing and said he accepted the right of the US and South Korea to move forward with joint military exercises later this year. So now its just the US that's stubbornly refusing to talk simply based on the fact that Kim possesses the same kind of weapons that the US has. Typical, isn't it? I mean, really, how can anyone objectively look at the situation and not see the US as the petty one?
The still active war between the NK and SK + USA has something to do with. There's also the issue of testing nuclear-capable missiles over the airspace of countries with which the USA has defense treaties, along with threatening to launch missiles at Guam last year.
Plus the whole situation with acquiring nuclear weapons & platforms when agreeing not to in exchange for billions in aid, while at the same time, in State Propaganda, calling the USA many different names and proclaiming the USA's imminent destruction.
Calling for the annihilation of another country isn't something you see the USA generally doing, unless you're on Max Boot's twitter feed.
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On March 11 2018 20:10 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2018 07:56 a_flayer wrote:On March 10 2018 02:44 Plansix wrote:
More like a couple decades off. This is not the first time NK has come to the table and then drove up tensions soon after. They are dependent on having an outside threat to scare their citizens. Well, when you're dealing with an enemy that refuses to even talk to you before you surrender the sovereignty of your own nation, then I have some understanding as to how that drives up tensions. Seems I was wrong before though. Kim has suggested that he is willing to accept the US military presence in South Korea. Instead, Kim only promised to stop nuclear and ballistic missile testing and said he accepted the right of the US and South Korea to move forward with joint military exercises later this year. So now its just the US that's stubbornly refusing to talk simply based on the fact that Kim possesses the same kind of weapons that the US has. Typical, isn't it? I mean, really, how can anyone objectively look at the situation and not see the US as the petty one? The still active war between the NK and SK + USA has something to do with. There's also the issue of testing nuclear-capable missiles over the airspace of countries with which the USA has defense treaties, along with threatening to launch missiles at Guam last year. Plus the whole situation with acquiring nuclear weapons & platforms when agreeing not to in exchange for billions in aid, while at the same time, in State Propaganda, calling the USA many different names and proclaiming the USA's imminent destruction. Calling for the annihilation of another country isn't something you see the USA generally doing, unless you're on Max Boot's twitter feed.
Kim said he was specifically willing to talk about ending the testing of missiles, so that's not an excuse. And, yeah, NK is technically at war with SK. But SK hasn't forgotten how to speak because of that, and is perfectly willing to talk to Kim Jong Un. So that's another poor excuse.
Also, the US government does in fact threaten other countries with annihilation. Quite openly so. I believe the words that were used were something along the lines of Fire and Fury? North Korea doesn't do any worse than that by any stretch of the imagination - if you read beyond the headlines or selective quoting in articles, at least - they always say they will annihilate their enemies if they are attacked.
And "acquiring nuclear weapons & platforms when agreeing not to in exchange for billions in aid," is also not an excuse for refusing to engage in conversation. Not to mention various other circumstances regarding that situation. How would you respond to striking a deal, but then being put on a very short list "Axis of Evil", and then one the nations on that list is invaded by the same nation that decimated your population not too long ago?
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On March 11 2018 20:28 a_flayer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2018 20:10 Taf the Ghost wrote:On March 11 2018 07:56 a_flayer wrote:On March 10 2018 02:44 Plansix wrote:
More like a couple decades off. This is not the first time NK has come to the table and then drove up tensions soon after. They are dependent on having an outside threat to scare their citizens. Well, when you're dealing with an enemy that refuses to even talk to you before you surrender the sovereignty of your own nation, then I have some understanding as to how that drives up tensions. Seems I was wrong before though. Kim has suggested that he is willing to accept the US military presence in South Korea. Instead, Kim only promised to stop nuclear and ballistic missile testing and said he accepted the right of the US and South Korea to move forward with joint military exercises later this year. So now its just the US that's stubbornly refusing to talk simply based on the fact that Kim possesses the same kind of weapons that the US has. Typical, isn't it? I mean, really, how can anyone objectively look at the situation and not see the US as the petty one? The still active war between the NK and SK + USA has something to do with. There's also the issue of testing nuclear-capable missiles over the airspace of countries with which the USA has defense treaties, along with threatening to launch missiles at Guam last year. Plus the whole situation with acquiring nuclear weapons & platforms when agreeing not to in exchange for billions in aid, while at the same time, in State Propaganda, calling the USA many different names and proclaiming the USA's imminent destruction. Calling for the annihilation of another country isn't something you see the USA generally doing, unless you're on Max Boot's twitter feed. Kim said he was specifically willing to talk about ending the testing of missiles, so that's not an excuse. And, yeah, NK is technically at war with SK. But SK hasn't forgotten how to speak because of that, and is perfectly willing to talk to Kim Jong Un. So that's another poor excuse. Also, the US government does in fact threaten other countries with annihilation. Quite openly so. I believe the words that were used were something along the lines of Fire and Fury? North Korea doesn't do any worse than that by any stretch of the imagination - if you read beyond the headlines or selective quoting in articles, at least - they always say they will annihilate their enemies if they are attacked. And "acquiring nuclear weapons & platforms when agreeing not to in exchange for billions in aid," is also not an excuse for refusing to engage in conversation. Not to mention various other circumstances regarding that situation. How would you respond to striking a deal, but then being put on a very short list "Axis of Evil", and then one the nations on that list is invaded by the same nation that decimated your population not too long ago?
Neither side is acting very nicely here but your insistance on painting the US as the only bad guy in this situation is irritating
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5930 Posts
At the end of the day, Trump sitting down to talk with no permanent preconditions or clear goals is hilariously good propaganda for North Korea. Its a complete vindication of North Korea's missile program as a means of deterrence and projection of might. Its basically the propaganda film The Country I Saw coming to life before the North Korean's eyes.
The United States might not be the only bad guy here but they're being needlessly reckless when they probably should have sat back and let Rex Tillerson and what's left of his department work with South Korea on the situation. North Korea been pretty silent since Trump's offer and I don't blame them. You've got the President of the United States go in, pushing aside Rex Tillerson and the rest of the US foreign administration in the process, asking you, a dictator with a heinous human rights record, if want to have a beer to discuss the "situation". What the hell do you even do in this situation, you've already hit the propaganda gold mine.
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On March 13 2018 19:05 Womwomwom wrote:
At the end of the day, Trump sitting down to talk with no permanent preconditions or clear goals is hilariously good propaganda for North Korea. Its a complete vindication of North Korea's missile program as a means of deterrence and projection of might. Its basically the propaganda film The Country I Saw coming to life before the North Korean's eyes.
The United States might not be the only bad guy here but they're being needlessly reckless when they probably should have sat back and let Rex Tillerson and what's left of his department work with South Korea on the situation. North Korea been pretty silent since Trump's offer and I don't blame them. You've got the President of the United States go in, pushing aside Rex Tillerson and the rest of the US foreign administration in the process, asking you, a dictator with a heinous human rights record, if want to have a beer to discuss the "situation". What the hell do you even do in this situation, you've already hit the propaganda gold mine.
It's interesting to watch the development of the talking points.
It's not 1999 and the State Department is still as useless as ever. (Or, they're quite competent, just not at carrying out the interests of the Unite States.) North Korea's propaganda means jack all when they have launch platforms and the nuclear weapons to place on them. There's a reason you stop nations that'll sell their wares to anyone that comes with a large enough check from developing such weaponry.
It's no longer a calculation of simply optics when you've entered into the realm of realpolitik, which is why the publicly stated goal is denuclearization of the peninsula. The two carrier groups are there to provide teeth to the response ability, but the real weaponry is economic. It requires hitting a lot of Chinese nationals and companies with embargoes on operating in the world's financial systems, but it's working because the USA is actually interested in it working. Previous to 2015, NK wasn't actually much of a threat. With their current weapons platforms, they can't win a war, but they can remove a city from the map. That's suddenly clarified the interests of a lot of the local players.
NK has stopped missile & nuclear testing, for the time being, along with dropping complaints about joint SK-USA military drills, while the USA has only agreed to meet to discuss. (Though, let's be clear, heads of state don't agree to meet until after some basic deal is done.) What deal will come out of the meeting? No clue. NK specifically mentioned security guarantees. Guarantees against whom? Without that question answered, we're all just speculating what the outcome will be.
However, a basic framework would be something like a Peace Treaty, normalization of relationships (embassies both ways), removal of troops from the DMZ for all parties, end of the embargo, complete removal of the nuclear weapons program (likely taken to Oak Ridge for decommissioning), family reunification efforts, and direct economic investment from the USA & SK. All done in a step-wise manner, with massive verification at every step. If things went well, in 4-6 years, you'd probably see a slow draw down of US Forces based in SK. (Something SK will be really happy to see come through.)
The thing to watch for, actually, revolves around the USS Pueblo. The ship itself doesn't matter, but there's symbolism, for both sides, involved. It would likely be the ceremonial piece to an agreement, but it'll matter.
If that comes to pass, you can expect Dennis Rodman is, in fact, going to win a Nobel Peace Prize. What is this world.
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All of this back and forth, yet to me the most plausible explanation for this whole meeting is that Trump is in way over his head and has no clue what he's doing.
The second most plausible explanation is that this is all an elaborate ruse to distract us from Stormy Daniels and Bob Mueller.
Correct me if I'm wrong but NK hasn't agreed to anything yet. I don't see how you could trust them if they did anyway. Let's just hope the two fat insecure guys don't start throwing insults over the negotiating table.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43846488
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said the country will suspend all missile tests and shut down a nuclear test site, state media say.
"From April 21, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the Korean Central News Agency said.
The decision came after a meeting of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea on Friday.
North Korea has defied international sanctions over its weapons programme.
In November, it said it had successfully tested a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the whole of the continental United States.
The test drew swift international condemnation. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Pyongyang had shown "complete disregard for the united view of the international community".
I wonder what is going to change in relation to this. Have the US had to give something up?
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“As the weaponisation of nuclear weapons has been verified, it is not necessary for us to conduct any more nuclear tests or test launches of mid- and long-range missiles or ICBMs,” Kim told the meeting.
“The northern nuclear test site has completed its mission,” he added at the meeting, according to KCNA.
So they feel like they tested enough and are certain of their capabilities. Or do you think this is PR speak and stopping testing is a concession to meet some unknown concession from SK/US?
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On April 21 2018 07:38 Jockmcplop wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43846488Show nested quote +North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said the country will suspend all missile tests and shut down a nuclear test site, state media say.
"From April 21, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the Korean Central News Agency said.
The decision came after a meeting of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea on Friday.
North Korea has defied international sanctions over its weapons programme.
In November, it said it had successfully tested a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the whole of the continental United States.
The test drew swift international condemnation. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Pyongyang had shown "complete disregard for the united view of the international community". I wonder what is going to change in relation to this. Have the US had to give something up?
Eventually, it'll be the removal of US Forces from the Peninsula, that's most likely been part of the deal. Though possibly a decade off, though China has time to wait for it.
We'll never know the whole story, and the official ones might not be lies but they skip over massively important details. Xi just appointed "Chairman of Everything", which means he's crushed several factions among the Chinese Communists. North Korea's leadership was kept afloat by a faction of the Chinese Military. The USA dropped nasty sanctions on a huge chunk of Chinese Banks, functionally removing several from the global financial markets.
Add in the very muted response from China about US Tariffs, and it's clear a bunch of deals have been cut along many different vectors. What we're seeing is the "show" for public consumption. The US-NK deal was done months ago. (Heads of State don't talk about meeting until the deal is already 90% done.) It helps that the NeoCons are out of power, so US Strategic Interests haven't been turned into expanding an empire.
Though do expect some sort of "development aid" package from the USA. Maybe just shipping food & fuel again. There's a lot of different avenues this can take.
The funny part is going to be watching for the hilarious double-faced opposition that crops up to an end to the issues on the Peninsula. We'll get a good idea what parties, factions & countries have been profiting from NK aggression for years.
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On April 21 2018 16:12 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2018 07:38 Jockmcplop wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43846488North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said the country will suspend all missile tests and shut down a nuclear test site, state media say.
"From April 21, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the Korean Central News Agency said.
The decision came after a meeting of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea on Friday.
North Korea has defied international sanctions over its weapons programme.
In November, it said it had successfully tested a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the whole of the continental United States.
The test drew swift international condemnation. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Pyongyang had shown "complete disregard for the united view of the international community". I wonder what is going to change in relation to this. Have the US had to give something up? Eventually, it'll be the removal of US Forces from the Peninsula, that's most likely been part of the deal. Though possibly a decade off, though China has time to wait for it. We'll never know the whole story, and the official ones might not be lies but they skip over massively important details. Xi just appointed "Chairman of Everything", which means he's crushed several factions among the Chinese Communists. North Korea's leadership was kept afloat by a faction of the Chinese Military. The USA dropped nasty sanctions on a huge chunk of Chinese Banks, functionally removing several from the global financial markets. Add in the very muted response from China about US Tariffs, and it's clear a bunch of deals have been cut along many different vectors. What we're seeing is the "show" for public consumption. The US-NK deal was done months ago. (Heads of State don't talk about meeting until the deal is already 90% done.) It helps that the NeoCons are out of power, so US Strategic Interests haven't been turned into expanding an empire. Though do expect some sort of "development aid" package from the USA. Maybe just shipping food & fuel again. There's a lot of different avenues this can take. The funny part is going to be watching for the hilarious double-faced opposition that crops up to an end to the issues on the Peninsula. We'll get a good idea what parties, factions & countries have been profiting from NK aggression for years.
I wish there was evidence of this because this is exactly what I feel has happened.
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On April 21 2018 18:44 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2018 16:12 Taf the Ghost wrote:On April 21 2018 07:38 Jockmcplop wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-43846488North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has said the country will suspend all missile tests and shut down a nuclear test site, state media say.
"From April 21, North Korea will stop nuclear tests and launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles," the Korean Central News Agency said.
The decision came after a meeting of the ruling Worker's Party of Korea on Friday.
North Korea has defied international sanctions over its weapons programme.
In November, it said it had successfully tested a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the whole of the continental United States.
The test drew swift international condemnation. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said Pyongyang had shown "complete disregard for the united view of the international community". I wonder what is going to change in relation to this. Have the US had to give something up? Eventually, it'll be the removal of US Forces from the Peninsula, that's most likely been part of the deal. Though possibly a decade off, though China has time to wait for it. We'll never know the whole story, and the official ones might not be lies but they skip over massively important details. Xi just appointed "Chairman of Everything", which means he's crushed several factions among the Chinese Communists. North Korea's leadership was kept afloat by a faction of the Chinese Military. The USA dropped nasty sanctions on a huge chunk of Chinese Banks, functionally removing several from the global financial markets. Add in the very muted response from China about US Tariffs, and it's clear a bunch of deals have been cut along many different vectors. What we're seeing is the "show" for public consumption. The US-NK deal was done months ago. (Heads of State don't talk about meeting until the deal is already 90% done.) It helps that the NeoCons are out of power, so US Strategic Interests haven't been turned into expanding an empire. Though do expect some sort of "development aid" package from the USA. Maybe just shipping food & fuel again. There's a lot of different avenues this can take. The funny part is going to be watching for the hilarious double-faced opposition that crops up to an end to the issues on the Peninsula. We'll get a good idea what parties, factions & countries have been profiting from NK aggression for years. I wish there was evidence of this because this is exactly what I feel has happened.
It actually dawned on me that the USA might have helped tilt intra-Chinese political factions in a way that allowed Xi to fully establish himself in control of the Government. We lack information about internal Chinese moves, but the only way that happened would be the crushing of several other factions. What if the, likely, Military faction that kept the strings over North Korea was crushed in the last round of purges, and Xi, Moon & Kim all cut deals with Trump to end the charade?
Because there's a funny little thing that crops up when you try to run the strategic interests & thinking of North Korea: the nukes never made sense in a post-USSR world. "Nuclear Blackmail" isn't in NK's interests, but in the interests of many other groups. NK could have moved in some of the ways that China did, unless the story of control of North Korea has a lot more subtlety to it. Thus, if the factions pushing NK down the ICBM & Nuke path are suddenly removed, North Korea's strategic interests suddenly revert to normal and the first thing they'd do is trade the ICBMs & Nukes for money & access.
That's exactly what we're seeing play out in real time.
As for Heads of State meeting, that little factoid just comes from historical study. The times they haven't, the meetings have gone extremely poorly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vienna_summit
A time when it went poorly, though modern technology has changed a lot of the way certain things play out. As we're getting more accurate information about events from 1970 to about 1990, they send people to "talk" quite a lot more now, as it's far easier. The noticeable, but under the radar, change with the Trump Administration is that huge chunks of communication is being done by high-level courier. The soon-to-be Secretary of State Pompeo made a bunch of trips as CIA Director, which is really odd. There's been a clear move away from any electronic communication for anything that's actually important. Trump's meeting with Xi at the Forbidden City is a lot more important, in hindsight, than we realize.
This doesn't change North Korea from being a repressive, totalitarian regime, but there's a difference between threatening to lob Nukes at LA & Cambodia. Almost everyone wins in North Korea becoming an uninteresting, poor country.
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United States44230 Posts
They were testing missiles and nukes to test whether they could get them to work and ultimately to show the rest of the world that they had working ones. They've done that now, they have working ICBMs with nuclear warheads. There is no reason for them to test again.
Imagine a kid keeps stealing cookies from a cookie jar and each time he does it you threaten dire consequences. Suddenly the kid volunteers to stop stealing cookies in an exchange. The threat of dire consequences hasn't suddenly changed their behaviour, the cookie jar is just empty, they already got all they wanted.
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On April 22 2018 04:49 Taf the Ghost wrote:We'll never know the whole story, and the official ones might not be lies but they skip over massively important details. Xi just appointed "Chairman of Everything", which means he's crushed several factions among the Chinese Communists. Oddly, enough, we now know that is exactly what occured in Saudi Arabia. US intelligence illegally given so some figure can consilidate into more power into themselve such that they now become the most powerful man in the country.
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On April 22 2018 05:57 KwarK wrote:
They were testing missiles and nukes to test whether they could get them to work and ultimately to show the rest of the world that they had working ones. They've done that now, they have working ICBMs with nuclear warheads. There is no reason for them to test again.
Imagine a kid keeps stealing cookies from a cookie jar and each time he does it you threaten dire consequences. Suddenly the kid volunteers to stop stealing cookies in an exchange. The threat of dire consequences hasn't suddenly changed their behaviour, the cookie jar is just empty, they already got all they wanted.
Treating a country that's ruled by cunning psychopaths like they're children is one of the narratives that's been pushed so no one could ask the actual questions about NK's actions. Congrats! You've fallen for the propaganda.
NK's leadership has never been stupid, and they didn't keep investing billions into a ICBM & Nuclear programs without deeper strategic reasons. Right along with significant technological help from a bunch of foreign powers & factions, including factions within the USA.
Libya & Egypt had a joint Nuclear program that was decommissioned in a deal with the USA during the W Administration, and by 2012 both countries had "regime change" events caused by Western powers. Yet, slightly over a year into the Trump Administration and NK wants to get out of the game. What might want to explore what that all implies.
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United States44230 Posts
On April 22 2018 06:21 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2018 05:57 KwarK wrote:
They were testing missiles and nukes to test whether they could get them to work and ultimately to show the rest of the world that they had working ones. They've done that now, they have working ICBMs with nuclear warheads. There is no reason for them to test again.
Imagine a kid keeps stealing cookies from a cookie jar and each time he does it you threaten dire consequences. Suddenly the kid volunteers to stop stealing cookies in an exchange. The threat of dire consequences hasn't suddenly changed their behaviour, the cookie jar is just empty, they already got all they wanted. Treating a country that's ruled by cunning psychopaths like they're children is one of the narratives that's been pushed so no one could ask the actual questions about NK's actions. Congrats! You've fallen for the propaganda.
You completely failed to understand my post.
Read it again and try harder.
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On April 22 2018 06:17 Dangermousecatdog wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2018 04:49 Taf the Ghost wrote:We'll never know the whole story, and the official ones might not be lies but they skip over massively important details. Xi just appointed "Chairman of Everything", which means he's crushed several factions among the Chinese Communists. Oddly, enough, we now know that is exactly what occured in Saudi Arabia. US intelligence illegally given so some figure can consilidate into more power into themselve such that they now become the most powerful man in the country.
There's been some pretty notable purges of high-level factions across the globe in the last 2 years, which is a good sign that the post-Cold War world is looking to enter some massive realignments. Whether that's good or bad depends on where you live, but things are going to be rather different.
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On April 22 2018 06:28 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2018 06:21 Taf the Ghost wrote:On April 22 2018 05:57 KwarK wrote:
They were testing missiles and nukes to test whether they could get them to work and ultimately to show the rest of the world that they had working ones. They've done that now, they have working ICBMs with nuclear warheads. There is no reason for them to test again.
Imagine a kid keeps stealing cookies from a cookie jar and each time he does it you threaten dire consequences. Suddenly the kid volunteers to stop stealing cookies in an exchange. The threat of dire consequences hasn't suddenly changed their behaviour, the cookie jar is just empty, they already got all they wanted. Treating a country that's ruled by cunning psychopaths like they're children is one of the narratives that's been pushed so no one could ask the actual questions about NK's actions. Congrats! You've fallen for the propaganda. You completely failed to understand my post. Read it again and try harder.
NK still would need several more rounds of testing before they'd have a functional ICBM platform. They've got a short-range platform, from sea launch, that is, however, quite well established. They don't have a warhead for that platform, to the ICBMs, unless they've been given miniaturization technology by one of just a few countries that has it.
NK also lost one of their major nuclear testing sites to a massive cave in somewhere in the latter half of 2017. (Most of NK's facilities are underground.)
NK has had the technical ability to normalize relations for a long time, yet they kept pushing forward with a technological approach that did nothing to improve their safety & everything to push their neighbors into massive weapons build up. After the successful placement of a satellite in 2012, they had no more public needed for ICBM testing, that was 6 years ago and they've got nothing for it then.
Nothing in their strategic interests has changed since 2012, yet the way they've acted has radically changed. This means the actors at the strategic level have changed, but it's hard to see because NK exists as a Media Narrative far more than a despotic country to most of the world.
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On April 22 2018 05:57 KwarK wrote:
They were testing missiles and nukes to test whether they could get them to work and ultimately to show the rest of the world that they had working ones. They've done that now, they have working ICBMs with nuclear warheads. There is no reason for them to test again.
Imagine a kid keeps stealing cookies from a cookie jar and each time he does it you threaten dire consequences. Suddenly the kid volunteers to stop stealing cookies in an exchange. The threat of dire consequences hasn't suddenly changed their behaviour, the cookie jar is just empty, they already got all they wanted.
The cookie jar isn't empty because they can go further if they want. They're going to get all they wanted when they have a meeting with Trump. That was the idea behind nuclearisation in my opinion. It's too early to say if they succeeded. It depends on negotiations.
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I really wonder how north korean official will react if Trump pulls another unexpected stunt during his visit, but I'm not sure if I actually want to find out.
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EPT
