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Nezgar
Profile Joined December 2012
Germany534 Posts
April 22 2018 10:24 GMT
#3481
I think the cookie jar is labeled "get nuclear weapons so that other nations cannot invade you" and they have indeed emptied that cookie jar now. If there's one thing that nations have learned in the last 70 years, it's that the thread of nuclear weapons is one of the best ways to keep other countries from invading you.

If I were the leader of a small despotic nation surrounded by superpowers and if my ultimate goal is to stay in power no matter the cost, nuclear deterrence seems like a reasonable choice. Pointing a lot of guns at Seoul until the end of time doesn't strike me as a good and reliable long-term solution.

I am not surprised that they're open to talks now. Improving international relationships and the living standard of the citizens seems like the logical next step.
sc-darkness
Profile Joined August 2017
856 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-04-22 11:39:48
April 22 2018 11:33 GMT
#3482
They have China's protection, at least for the time being. There's no need for nuclear weapons, but I agree that it keeps other countries away. I just think there is a strategic decision behind that and that is to negotiate some nice trade deals and whatever else North Koreans want from the US and others. Why else would they want negotiations? Why did they have to say nuclear weapons are specifically against the US? Why not NATO? There has to be something they want other than nuclear deterrence.

Indeed, they want their citizens to be better and they even said it. They want more socialist economy, but I doubt they want it to be as limited as USSR one.
A3th3r
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
United States319 Posts
April 22 2018 13:12 GMT
#3483
Let me know if this has already been mentioned (didn't see anything in the previous 2 pages) but I guess Pompeio visited Pyonyang over the Easter weekend! That's pretty exciting and I think that this is a positive step in the right direction for US / Korea relations. I think that SK continues to think of NK as a friend and they continue to hold out hope that there will be a unification. East & West Germany came together after the fall of the Berlin Wall and North & South America united after the Civil War in the 1800's, so it is very possible that it could happen. If that were to happen, Korea would be almost as powerful as Japan, which is an incredibly powerful competitor economically especially in the sales of cars throughout the world. I think that China is against that because they don't want to see "Japan 2" in the region to threaten their control of that part of the world.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/the-editors/editorial-mike-pompeos-north-korea-meeting-with-kim-jong-un-was-delusional

I guess things aren't that close between the US & China right now. However, that said, the Chinese own a lot of American debt and buy a lot of soybean & steel exports from the US, so they definitely could crimp things for US companies if they choose to go in that direction. I guess there is the revival of an EU \ US trade agreement that is being discussed right now called the TTIP so that would indicate a bit of a shift in the US from the west to the east, so there would be a chance for China to reassert itself in its own backyard. Definitely there is a chance for North AND South Korea to make some changes in the global order right now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transatlantic_Trade_and_Investment_Partnership
stale trite schlub
sc-darkness
Profile Joined August 2017
856 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-04-22 13:56:55
April 22 2018 13:56 GMT
#3484
While I think Korean unification is the future, there are too many reasons for this not to happen soon. As you said, would China allow it? Are South Koreans prepared to pay more as the wealthier half of the two Koreas (I think this is what West Germany had to do). Is North Korea prepared to abandon dictatorship or at least consider being a local government like the ones in Wales, Scotland, etc?
REDBLUEGREEN
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Germany1904 Posts
April 22 2018 14:02 GMT
#3485
The DPRK has the PRC's protection, but only to a certain extent and the DPRK doesn't want to rely on the PRC. That relying on the PRC as socialist brothers was not enough became apparent quite early during the Sino-Soviet split and certainly later on when Reagan and Li Xiannian shook hands.

Even if nuclear weapons were not needed for defensive purposes, they were needed for internal political reasons. The development of nuclear weapons to achieve security was used as a justification for the hardships of the citizens. That in the end all the sacrifices would be worth it. So the DPRK government needed to show results with nuclear technology.

Now the direction is to "concentrate all efforts on building a powerful socialist economy and markedly improving the standard of people's living through the mobilization of all human and material resources of the country.". It makes sense, the north Korean kids that grew up during the 90s and are young adults now are slowly starting to get into positions of power. These are kid's that grew up with ever growing black markets and with smuggled foreign media. Most north Koreans nowadays have watched south Korean, Chinese and even American movies and TV series and are thus aware that those counties are better off.

The black market has become so big these days that some say it makes up 50% of the economy. New upper class apartments in Pyongyang sell for $70k and there are people who can afford these. In general under Kim Jong Un there is a policy to not ask where this money is coming from. Kim Jong Un already made some good changes to improve the economy like agricultural reforms and a more lax attitude to people not showing up to their official assigned workplace if there is nothing going on. Previously a factory worker would have to go to his factory even if there were no orders and the factory was not producing anything. Now they are free to pursue other enterprises and just expected to make a "donation" to their official workplace in accordance with how much they earned illegally. And the DPRK leadership needs to make these economic achievements otherwise the young adults who are aware of the reality of their and other countries' standards of living might become a source of trouble for them.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-04-23 17:50:01
April 23 2018 17:48 GMT
#3486
On April 22 2018 19:24 Nezgar wrote:
I think the cookie jar is labeled "get nuclear weapons so that other nations cannot invade you" and they have indeed emptied that cookie jar now. If there's one thing that nations have learned in the last 70 years, it's that the thread of nuclear weapons is one of the best ways to keep other countries from invading you.

If I were the leader of a small despotic nation surrounded by superpowers and if my ultimate goal is to stay in power no matter the cost, nuclear deterrence seems like a reasonable choice. Pointing a lot of guns at Seoul until the end of time doesn't strike me as a good and reliable long-term solution.

I am not surprised that they're open to talks now. Improving international relationships and the living standard of the citizens seems like the logical next step.

Taking the cookie jar analogy to it's conclusion, North Korea, have not only taken cookies from the cookie jar, which still have plenty enough cookies inside the jar, but are now baking their own cookies. They have successfully brought and integrated missle and nuclear technology. Comparing NK to a kid is unbeleivable and presumably the USA as a responsible parental adult who happens to be unable to keep their child off a jar is beyond unhelpful. Conclusion; stupid analogy is still a stupid analogy.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
April 25 2018 13:25 GMT
#3487
Well this isn't good.

North Korea’s mountain nuclear test site has collapsed, putting China and other nearby nations at unprecedented risk of radioactive exposure, two separate groups of Chinese scientists studying the issue have confirmed.

The collapse after five nuclear blasts may be why North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared last Friday that he would freeze the hermit state’s nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site, one researcher said.

The last five of Pyongyang’s six nuclear tests have all been carried out under Mount Mantap at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in North Korea’s northwest.

A research team led by Wen Lianxing, a geologist with the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, concluded the collapse occurred following the detonation last autumn of North Korea’s most powerful thermal nuclear warhead in a tunnel about 700 metres (2,296 feet) below the mountain’s peak.

The test turned the mountain into fragile fragments, the researchers found.

The mountain’s collapse and the prospect of radioactive exposure in the aftermath, confirms a series of exclusive reports by the South China Morning Post on China’s fears that Pyongyang’s latest nuclear test had caused a fallout leak.

Radioactive dust could escape through holes or cracks in the damaged mountain, the scientists said.

“It is necessary to continue monitoring possible leaks of radioactive materials caused by the collapse incident,” Wen’s team said in the statement.

The findings will be published on the website of the peer-reviewed journal, Geophysical Research Letters, likely next month.

North Korea saw the mountain as an ideal location for underground nuclear experiments because of its elevation – it stood more than 2,100 metres (6,888 feet) above sea level – and its terrain of thick, gentle slopes that seemed capable of resisting structural damage.

The mountain’s surface had shown no visible damage after four underground nuclear tests before 2017.

But the 100-kilotonne bomb that went off on September 3 vaporised surrounding rocks with unprecedented heat and opened a space that was up to 200 metres (656 feet) in diameter, according to a statement posted on the Wen team’s website on Monday.

As shock waves tore through and loosened more rocks, a large section of the mountain’s ridge, less than half a kilometre (0.3 mile) from the peak, slipped down into the empty pocket created by the blast, leaving a scar visible in satellite images.

Wen concluded that the mountain had collapsed after analysing data collected from nearly 2,000 seismic stations.

Three small earthquakes that hit nearby regions in the wake of the collapse added credence to his conclusion, suggesting the test site had lost its geological stability.

Another research team led by Liu Junqing at the Jilin Earthquake Agency with the China Earthquake Administration in Changchun, reached similar conclusions to the Wen team.

The “rock collapse … was for the first time documented in North Korea’s test site,” Liu’s team wrote in a paper published last month in Geophysical Research Letters.

The breakdown not only took off part of the mountain’s summit but also created a “chimney” that could allow fallout to rise from the blast centre into the air, they said.

Zhao Lianfeng, a researcher with the Institute of Earth Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, said the two studies supported a consensus among scientists that “the site was wrecked” beyond repair.

“Their findings are in agreement to our observations,” he said.

“Different teams using different data have come up with similar conclusions,” Zhao said. “The only difference was in some technical details. This is the best guess that can be made by the world outside.”

Speculation grew that North Korea’s site was in trouble when Lee Doh-sik, the top North Korean geologist, visited Zhao’s institute about two weeks after the test where he met privately with senior Chinese government geologists.

Although the purpose of Lee’s visit was not disclosed, two days later, Pyongyang announced it would no longer conduct land-based nuclear tests.

Hu Xingdou, a Beijing-based scholar who follows North Korea’s nuclear programme, said it was highly likely that Pyongyang had received a stark warning from Beijing.

“The test was not only destabilising the site but increasing the risk of eruption of the Changbai Mountain,” a large, active volcano at China-Korean border, said Hu, who asked that his university affiliation not be disclosed for this article because of the topic’s sensitivity.

The mountain’s collapse has likely dealt a huge blow to North Korea’s nuclear programme, Hu said.

Hit by crippling international economic sanctions over its nuclear ambitions, the country might lack sufficient resources to soon resume testing at a new site, he said.

“But there are other sites suitable for testing,” Hu said. “They must be closely monitored.”

Guo Qiuju, a Peking University professor who has belonged to a panel that has advised the Chinese government on emergency responses to radioactive hazards, said if fallout escaped through cracks, it could be carried by wind over the Chinese border.

“So far we have not detected an abnormal increase of radioactivity levels,” Guo said. “But we will continue to monitor the surrounding region with a large [amount] of highly sensitive equipment and analyse the data in state-of-the-art laboratories.”

Zhao Guodong, a government nuclear waste confinement specialist at the University of South China, said the North Korean government should allow scientists from China and other countries to enter the test site and evaluate the damage.

“We can put a thick layer of soil on top of the collapsed site, fill the cracks with special cement, or remove the pollutants with chemical solution,” he said.

“There are many methods to deal with the problem. All they need [to do] is ask.”


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-04-25 17:29:24
April 25 2018 17:26 GMT
#3488
Are people not aware of the huge change in the situation?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/19/world/asia/north-korea-american-troops-withdrawal-trump.html

North Korea has dropped its demand that American troops be removed from South Korea as a condition for giving up its nuclear weapons, South Korea’s president said Thursday in presenting the idea to the United States.

That's it. Basically, this means there's going to be an official peace agreement. I don't know what the fuck the rest of that article is about, or what the hell you all are on about regarding the nuclear testing site, but I know for a fact there will be a peace agreement now. Unless something goes catastrophically wrong somehow. There are no real discernible obstacles to peace and denuclearization right now as far as I'm concerned.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8998 Posts
April 25 2018 17:38 GMT
#3489
The only reason, the only reason this is even looking promising, is because of what StealthB posted. They fucked up and need to be bailed out. Now they're willing to compromise a lot more than what they previously wanted. But I'm sure ya boy trump will find a way to fuck it up.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 25 2018 18:13 GMT
#3490
Trump has done an impeccable job so far, regaining a lot of ground lost in past administrations with regards to moving forward with better NK relations. Why exactly would you think he would change course and start bungling it now?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8998 Posts
April 25 2018 18:47 GMT
#3491
He has done literally nothing. He did some name calling and that was that. We don't have an ambassador in SK. State Dept is a shit show, and SK has done most of the heavy lifting. Don't give credit where none has been earned. If this goes through, SK deserves all of the credit. And more to the point, refer to the last few posts in the US poli thread.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 25 2018 19:07 GMT
#3492
Sounds like selective attribution of credit to me. Everything good wasn't Trump's doing, everything bad was. I suppose based on precedent, this shouldn't be much of a surprise. But nevertheless, the progress made under Trump definitely represents a remarkable reversal to earlier years of degrading relations, and "I bet he's going to find a way to fuck it up" is disingenuous as hell.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Aveng3r
Profile Joined February 2012
United States2411 Posts
April 25 2018 19:35 GMT
#3493
On April 26 2018 04:07 LegalLord wrote:
Sounds like selective attribution of credit to me. Everything good wasn't Trump's doing, everything bad was. I suppose based on precedent, this shouldn't be much of a surprise. But nevertheless, the progress made under Trump definitely represents a remarkable reversal to earlier years of degrading relations, and "I bet he's going to find a way to fuck it up" is disingenuous as hell.

I think we had months upon months of escalating tensions, not to mention an embarrassing and childish pissing match between 2 supposed world "leaders". Meanwhile North Korean capabilities have steadily increased to the point that were now pretty sure they're capable of hitting US mainland.

If you wouldn't mind, please point me towards any scrap of good news since Trump took over.
I carve marble busts of assassinated world leaders - PM for a quote
a_flayer
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Netherlands2826 Posts
April 25 2018 19:45 GMT
#3494
On April 26 2018 04:35 Aveng3r wrote:
If you wouldn't mind, please point me towards any scrap of good news since Trump took over.

North Korea has dropped its demand that American troops be removed from South Korea as a condition for giving up its nuclear weapons, South Korea’s president said Thursday in presenting the idea to the United States.
When you came along so righteous with a new national hate, so convincing is the ardor of war and of men, it's harder to breathe than to believe you're a friend. The wars at home, the wars abroad, all soaked in blood and lies and fraud.
Aveng3r
Profile Joined February 2012
United States2411 Posts
April 25 2018 19:56 GMT
#3495
On April 26 2018 04:45 a_flayer wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 26 2018 04:35 Aveng3r wrote:
If you wouldn't mind, please point me towards any scrap of good news since Trump took over.

Show nested quote +
North Korea has dropped its demand that American troops be removed from South Korea as a condition for giving up its nuclear weapons, South Korea’s president said Thursday in presenting the idea to the United States.

uhhhh yep, I stand corrected

However I more meant as a result of US action. I'm inclined to agree with zerocool somewhat in that I think their mountain testing sight took a dump and now they're trying to salvage something from a dead asset.
I carve marble busts of assassinated world leaders - PM for a quote
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8998 Posts
April 25 2018 20:00 GMT
#3496
On April 26 2018 04:07 LegalLord wrote:
Sounds like selective attribution of credit to me. Everything good wasn't Trump's doing, everything bad was. I suppose based on precedent, this shouldn't be much of a surprise. But nevertheless, the progress made under Trump definitely represents a remarkable reversal to earlier years of degrading relations, and "I bet he's going to find a way to fuck it up" is disingenuous as hell.

If we had people on the ground in SK during all of this and talks were ongoing, then sure, I'd give him some small credit. But we don't and SK has been working on it. This has been ongoing since Obama and now we're seeing the results. Policies change and administrations change, but to say that trump is the one who made all of this possible by being in the seat at the right time is, well, you said it.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
April 25 2018 20:28 GMT
#3497
Obama can certainly take credit for the fact that NK developed its nuclear capabilities under his watch, and that NK acquired ICBM technology as that administration was boasting about how far NK was from being able to deliver their nukes anywhere near the US. And for the fact that escalating measures failed to reverse that approach. But for being able to “get results” years after the end of that presidency after Trump is well into his term? Well either you’re willing to give Bush credit for taking out Bin Laden (with Obama being in that seat at the right time) or you’re just selectively supporting who you like and failing to give credit where it is due.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
ZerOCoolSC2
Profile Blog Joined February 2015
8998 Posts
April 25 2018 20:35 GMT
#3498
On April 26 2018 05:28 LegalLord wrote:
Obama can certainly take credit for the fact that NK developed its nuclear capabilities under his watch, and that NK acquired ICBM technology as that administration was boasting about how far NK was from being able to deliver their nukes anywhere near the US. And for the fact that escalating measures failed to reverse that approach. But for being able to “get results” years after the end of that presidency after Trump is well into his term? Well either you’re willing to give Bush credit for taking out Bin Laden (with Obama being in that seat at the right time) or you’re just selectively supporting who you like and failing to give credit where it is due.

I don't know where to start with this. I'm not selectively supporting one over the other.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15711 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-04-25 20:38:38
April 25 2018 20:38 GMT
#3499
On April 26 2018 05:28 LegalLord wrote:
Obama can certainly take credit for the fact that NK developed its nuclear capabilities under his watch, and that NK acquired ICBM technology as that administration was boasting about how far NK was from being able to deliver their nukes anywhere near the US. And for the fact that escalating measures failed to reverse that approach. But for being able to “get results” years after the end of that presidency after Trump is well into his term? Well either you’re willing to give Bush credit for taking out Bin Laden (with Obama being in that seat at the right time) or you’re just selectively supporting who you like and failing to give credit where it is due.


I don't think there was ever a way for Obama to stop NK from getting nukes. So long as missiles are pointed at Seoul and China keeps the lights on, the only option was military force against China while sacrificing Seoul. Sometimes you're in checkmate. NK could only have been stopped a really long time ago. Once NK had SK by the nuts, the game was over.

In your eyes, what should Obama have done?
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
April 25 2018 21:04 GMT
#3500
NK supposedly got their ICBM technology from either Ukraine or Russia, transported over from Russian railway lines. Credit is where credit is due.
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