EPTNorth Korea says/does surprising and alarming thing - Page…
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riotjune
United States3394 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
On March 07 2018 12:42 KwarK wrote: ? Do NK not have nukes? I'm pretty sure they have nukes. They also have better missiles than they had at any point under Obama's presidency. They've also repeatedly flouted Trump's warnings to cease testing missiles. Yes but if these peace talks they are having with South Korea result in the denuclearization of the North which is what the news was coming out of South Korea, then he can quite easily spin this as a victory due to the sanctions he imposed and put NK into a corner. Which of course he will, every politician would do it because why not lol. | ||
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Deleuze
United Kingdom2102 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
https://news.sky.com/story/has-kim-jong-un-caved-in-to-teflon-dons-aggression-11278933 Couple of articles on the matter. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On March 07 2018 08:49 Taf the Ghost wrote: Though it's not quite the same thing that always happens. The Trump Administration has actually decided to deal with the issue, which includes the use of several carrier groups and actually enforcing sanctions in ways that hurt the wing of Chinese leadership that keep NK afloat. This is why the media went nuts when Trump simply called Un's bluff. NK can only kill a lot of civilians before being completely overrun with their entire defense collapsing in under 48 hours. Everyone let NK play the game, but Trump simply called the bluff. Now NK has to take a different approach. I think you vastly underestimate the North Korean military (and brainwashed civilians) and the logistics of the USA fighting a war on the peninsular, while the USA could establish air and naval dominance almost immediately the US would have to have a ground push into North Korea to secure the Nuclear sites and to destroy some of the more entrenched artillery positions, this would not be possible with the current military personnel and equipment on the peninsular it would take weeks to transport everything there and when it was there it would be a long hard slog against millions of fanatics. Current war game analysis also suggests that the North would probably use a nuclear weapon very early on if war broke out probably at Busan to cripple the US ability to reinforce and resupply its forces and make the US think again if it actually wants to continue fighting any war. So if you think the north would collapse in 48h I think you are very much mistaken. | ||
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On March 07 2018 20:07 Zaros wrote: I think you vastly underestimate the North Korean military (and brainwashed civilians) and the logistics of the USA fighting a war on the peninsular, while the USA could establish air and naval dominance almost immediately the US would have to have a ground push into North Korea to secure the Nuclear sites and to destroy some of the more entrenched artillery positions, this would not be possible with the current military personnel and equipment on the peninsular it would take weeks to transport everything there and when it was there it would be a long hard slog against millions of fanatics. Current war game analysis also suggests that the North would probably use a nuclear weapon very early on if war broke out probably at Busan to cripple the US ability to reinforce and resupply its forces and make the US think again if it actually wants to continue fighting any war. So if you think the north would collapse in 48h I think you are very much mistaken. NK couldn't survive the first wave of EW assault. They'd be reduced to no functional communication within hours. From there it's only a matter of the first wave of armor rolling over their positions before their defenses collapse. NK has no ability to win a war and hasn't since at least the fall of the Soviet Union. However, they can kill a bunch of civilians in a first-wave assault, which is why no one really wants a war on the peninsula. NK can't win; SK & USA doesn't has a desire to take NK by force. This is why NK's "bully diplomacy" was allowed to keep being done. However, that only worked so long as no one called the bluff. With NK lobbing missiles towards US territories and with nuclear-capable weaponry, it's not an issue that can just be left sitting. So Trump plays "bad cop", while SK plays "good cop". The Trump Administration has moved massive Naval assets into the region (pissing off China to no end), giving both massive First Strike and Response Strike options. The US Military, with the backing of Trump, is playing this in a Game Theory optimized way, but that gets the fainting couch members of the media all in a tizzy. Most of the pressure is economic, targeting Chinese companies that are the ones that actually prop up NK, but the military pressure exists to make sure the desired & acceptable outcome is met. The USA's & SK's only objective is a denuclearized peninsula. That's something China, Russia, the USA, Japan & SK can all, publicly, accept as a good end game state. It allows NK to make a deal, even to the point of full normalization, while saving face. All it takes is for someone to be able to call the bluff. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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tertos
Romania394 Posts
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Womwomwom
5930 Posts
On March 07 2018 23:31 Plansix wrote: We are still fighting in Afghanistan almost 20 years later. We are on a second generation of kids being sent over to that war. It took us a decade to get out of Iraq. Both of those nations are the opposite of military power houses and it didn’t matter. There is no way we come out ahead in a conflict with NK. The political will to win that war, hold off Chinese influence and rebuild NK into a functioning nation does not exist. Americans do not want to pay price tag for that war and the aftermath. It always gets me that Americans think they can just threaten war against North Korea to get North Korea to back down. North Koreans know that South Korea alone can wipe the floor with them, that's why they have nukes so the initial collateral damage won't be worth the effort as Americans have shown that they have no problems rolling into nations unadvisedly. The problem has always been the aftermath, as you stated, and that's the exact thing that will piss literally everyone in the region from South Korea to China to Japan. It'll piss off the rest of the world too, it further justifies the often argued claim that the US is an imperialist nation that brings nothing but conflict. North Korea isn't stupid or insane, they're a rational actor doing what a rational actor would do if they were a military dictatorship. And Taj's assumption assumes that North Korea even wants re-unification at this point. I don't see any reason why the North Korean leadership and upper echelon of their society would accept any terms that would strip them of their power. North Korea isn't even promising in good faith to denuclearise during these talks, they're just promising to not test them. They're throwing the US a bone by allowing harmless military exercises to continue as this forces the US to the table if the US don't want to look like the belligerent party. This is a game we've seen time and time again. That is, the cycle of saber rattling to diplomacy to sanctions modification and aid supply to saber rattling to...which is why I find it bizarre that the Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs is pretty much the only person I've heard not faint with excitement over these talks. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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Sermokala
United States14068 Posts
It and Isreal are simply unsolvable messes that the world wants to just ignore for now. | ||
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
On March 08 2018 11:52 Sermokala wrote: Winning a war against NK has never been the issue with toppling the NK reigme. The issue is and has always been China flooding millions across the river and swamping any force in its way. A unified Korea is a threat to china and they won't allow that to just happen. It and Isreal are simply unsolvable messes that the world wants to just ignore for now. I imagine that if the US didn't have a military presence in it, China wouldn't be too bothered with a unified denuclearized Korea as a neighbor. The "issue" is as much the US military presence as it is China's effort to keep North Korea free of the US military by enabling the North Korean regime. Also, I don't understand why it is news that North Korea is willing to denuclearize? The quid-pro-quo is that the US military leaves South Korea (eg. denuclearizes the state). Wasn't this also the case in the 90s and such with both parties stating that they demand their sovereignty over internal matters is respected and such? ("We are free to make nuclear weapons!" "No, you must stop, but we are free to hold military drills on your borders with this foreign nuclear-enabled army!") In other news Kim Jong Un appears to be heading South. http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=3045322 | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On March 08 2018 21:34 Plansix wrote: When would the US have pulled its troops out of South Korea? I'm interested in this version of history. I'm not sure that 'the US would have pulled its troops out of SK' was implied by a_flayer. What seems to have been implied is that SK would have wanted US to leave in some degree in the 90s, but I don't know if that was true or not | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On March 08 2018 21:45 Sbrubbles wrote: I'm not sure that 'the US would have pulled its troops out of SK' was implied by a_flayer. What seems to have been implied is that SK would have wanted US to leave in some degree in the 90s, but I don't know if that was true or not I am not an expert SK domestic politics, so I would be interested in reading about the push to have the US leave SK, if it happened. | ||
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a_flayer
Netherlands2826 Posts
I tried to say the DPRK essentially wants the US to leave the Korean peninsula in exchange for ending its nuclear program. But when it makes such suggestions, then South Korea says "well, no, don't be silly, we are free to do as we wish within our own borders" and proceed to hold joint military exercises with the US near the DMZ. At the same time, South Korea and the US demand that the DPRK ends it nuclear program, who says "well, no, don't be silly, we are free to do as we wish within our own borders" and proceeds with its nuclear program. This was the case in 90s, and this appears to be the case now. Nothing has changed. You can talk about the details of various demands and agreements and whatnot, but that is the core of things as far as I'm concerned. I don't understand where the confusion is coming from and how one can think that I suggested there was a period during which the US left the Korean peninsula (wtf?). I also never really said anything about what South Korea wants, other than the notion that they continued the military exercises with the US (their foreign, nuclear-enabled ally). Presumably, since they continue to hold the military exercises, that's what they want to do. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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KwarK
United States43402 Posts
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Dan HH
Romania9145 Posts
U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that South Korea would be making a “major announcement” on North Korea at 7 p.m. (0000 GMT) on Thursday. Trump made the comments to reporters in the White House briefing room but he gave no other details. White House national security adviser H.R. McMaster and other senior aides were briefed Thursday by South Korean officials on their talks with North Korea this week. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-trump/trump-says-south-korea-to-make-major-announcement-on-north-korea-idUSKCN1GK34N + Show Spoiler + | ||
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
As to North Korea's military ability, it's a 2-3 week war, at most, though no one is aligned to fight one right now. All sides would already be massing troops if it was an actual possibility. Which is exactly why calling NK's bluff worked. Trump Administration Military Policy is to attack launch & production sites. Overflying a missile by US Territory would have caused the USA to shoot it down than then a several day bombing campaign to remove all launch sites in NK. (That's why the carriers were moved there. The local air bases don't have the support necessary for such a campaign.) There's a reason the "my button is bigger" taunt was used. Everyone going nuts about it has clearly never seen how you handle someone that is overplaying their position wildly. | ||
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