EPTI am still patiently waiting for the day when NK and SK no longer exist and it's just "Korea".
North Korea says/does surprising and alarming thing - Page…
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Seeker
Where dat snitch at?37118 Posts
I am still patiently waiting for the day when NK and SK no longer exist and it's just "Korea". | ||
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ZerOCoolSC2
9066 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
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LegalLord
United States13779 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On March 06 2018 22:47 Seeker wrote: Please... For the love of God... Let this have a great outcome! I am still patiently waiting for the day when NK and SK no longer exist and it's just "Korea". How can that actually happen though, without some dreadful war beforehand. Kim family & generals aren't going to give up power and the south is never gonna submit to the north voluntarily. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On March 06 2018 23:23 Zaros wrote: How can that actually happen though, without some dreadful war beforehand. Kim family & generals aren't going to give up power and the south is never gonna submit to the north voluntarily. That is the hard part. Getting them to surrender power peacefully also means that SK can’t hold them accountable for human rights abuses. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On March 06 2018 23:34 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Well, he said he wants the security of the regime to be guaranteed, and is willing to give up nuclear weapons for it. In other words, North and South Korea will be forever divided. If anything these steps and the stated intention therein is to ensure that there will be no unification. It seems pretty clear that the terms for reducing nuclear weaponry would be the removal partly or wholly of US forces in South Korea and he see a unique window of opportunity. Though in my opinion, that the political de-escalation reduces the risk of Seoul being turned into a wasteland allowing ASL5 continue uninterrupted is the most important outcome. US won't withdraw from the peninsular even if the North gave up nuclear weapons because then the south would be undefended from the North which is the whole reason why the US is there in the first place not nukes. | ||
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Dangermousecatdog
United Kingdom7084 Posts
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On March 07 2018 00:41 Pandemona wrote: Yeah i read somewhere that the South Korean young voters were "outraged" at the unification team that played in the Winter Olympics and such. Would point to the younger generation not wanting a unification which is a bit sad It may have been this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/28/world/asia/koreas-olympics-reunification.html While I do think it's sad they don't want unification (considering how many north koreans would be lifted out of poverty), I also don't think it will happen except in the odd chance of the Kims botching a transfer of power when the current Kim dies, or if a very bizarre series of events has the US leaving SK, China realigning with SK, China realizing the need to stop NK, and Russia deciding to not take a stance. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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DarkPlasmaBall
United States46484 Posts
On March 06 2018 23:22 LegalLord wrote: This is clearly and cleanly a victory for Trump, managing to do in just a year what eluded Obama for almost a decade. What part in this did Trump play? It happening during his presidency =/= he deserves credit, necessarily. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On March 07 2018 03:13 DarkPlasmaBall wrote: What part in this did Trump play? It happening during his presidency =/= he deserves credit, necessarily. It could be argued he scared North Korea into talking but the only one who will know the truth is rocket man. | ||
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Emnjay808
United States10666 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On March 07 2018 04:03 Emnjay808 wrote: this doesn’t necessarily mean trump made this possible. But this doesn’t make him look bad either, which is what the media so desperately tries to do on a daily basis. It isn’t really that hard given the White House is a dumpster fire factory these days. The only desperation they might feel is being overwhelmed with options. | ||
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
Everyone involved at the leadership ranks between China, USA, SK, NK and Russia were in on the reality of the situation. It was to everyone's advantage to put on a show. That's not the cynical view, it's the reality that's come out of quite a few leaks of government documents from the last decade. The big issue is the 2012-2014 period. Something changed in NK. China seems in near full control of NK now, or at least a wing of the Chinese military is. Something caused Kim to have his half-brother assassinated, which was more than likely driven by whatever changed. This is also why the recent sanctions were targeted at North Korea were pretty much all Chinese exporters, shippers and banks. And all with ties to high levels of the Chinese military. The end-game state from here is up to the Kim family. Best case scenario is they agree to exile and some payoff from USA/Japan/Whoever else will chip in. But the agreement has to be multi-part. China doesn't allow anything to happen unless US forces leave the peninsula, which until the Trump Administration was never likely to happen. Now, that's actually on the table. (Look to the START & START 2 nuclear weapon deals for a framework of de-escalation & verification.) Some framework would be something like ~100 million USD for the Kim family and exile to some location in China. South Korea takes administration of North Korea. Large scale DMZ zone on the border between China & North Korea. Removal of US Forces from South Korea over the course of 2-3 years. That'd be rough for the South Koreans, as it's going to take 50-60 years to begin to address the problems of North Korea. It'd be something of a protectorate of South Korea for a very, very, very long time. Self-rule is out of the question for at least a generation, if not 3. Still, Kim could call Trump and get a deal in a couple of days, if he actually has the power to make a deal. That's an open question at this point. | ||
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IyMoon
United States1249 Posts
On March 07 2018 05:39 Taf the Ghost wrote: We have to wait and see. This is a huge optics win for the Trump Administration, along with the outcome of strategic leverage. The dirty secret is that the USA pretty much gave NK the means to finish their nuclear program & had no interest in actually preventing it. It was a done deal by 1998 or 1999. After their official nuclear test, which happened during the W administration, it was simply leverage over South Korea. Everyone involved at the leadership ranks between China, USA, SK, NK and Russia were in on the reality of the situation. It was to everyone's advantage to put on a show. That's not the cynical view, it's the reality that's come out of quite a few leaks of government documents from the last decade. The big issue is the 2012-2014 period. Something changed in NK. China seems in near full control of NK now, or at least a wing of the Chinese military is. Something caused Kim to have his half-brother assassinated, which was more than likely driven by whatever changed. This is also why the recent sanctions were targeted at North Korea were pretty much all Chinese exporters, shippers and banks. And all with ties to high levels of the Chinese military. The end-game state from here is up to the Kim family. Best case scenario is they agree to exile and some payoff from USA/Japan/Whoever else will chip in. But the agreement has to be multi-part. China doesn't allow anything to happen unless US forces leave the peninsula, which until the Trump Administration was never likely to happen. Now, that's actually on the table. (Look to the START & START 2 nuclear weapon deals for a framework of de-escalation & verification.) Some framework would be something like ~100 million USD for the Kim family and exile to some location in China. South Korea takes administration of North Korea. Large scale DMZ zone on the border between China & North Korea. Removal of US Forces from South Korea over the course of 2-3 years. That'd be rough for the South Koreans, as it's going to take 50-60 years to begin to address the problems of North Korea. It'd be something of a protectorate of South Korea for a very, very, very long time. Self-rule is out of the question for at least a generation, if not 3. Still, Kim could call Trump and get a deal in a couple of days, if he actually has the power to make a deal. That's an open question at this point. it is only an optic win if it does anything. If the talks break down it's just the same thing that has always happened> Also there is no way the Kim family leaves NK, there will be no unification, there will be no nukes taken away from NK. Maybe I am just pessimistic but I don't see how peace talks work here | ||
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Taf the Ghost
United States11751 Posts
On March 07 2018 08:09 IyMoon wrote: it is only an optic win if it does anything. If the talks break down it's just the same thing that has always happened> Also there is no way the Kim family leaves NK, there will be no unification, there will be no nukes taken away from NK. Maybe I am just pessimistic but I don't see how peace talks work here Everything ties back to why Kim had his brother assassinated. The brother lived an utterly uneventful existence in Macau, didn't travel with any security and didn't actually seem important. They used intelligence assets with nerve gas for the hit. Kong Jong-un had secured the position of leader by 2010, but he killed his brother 7 years later? It's the biggest puzzle piece with no clear answer. The first read is that Un was concerned he was going to be replaced, but by who's hand would that happen? Without a clear answer on the assassination, there is some very different directions analysis would run in. Though it's not quite the same thing that always happens. The Trump Administration has actually decided to deal with the issue, which includes the use of several carrier groups and actually enforcing sanctions in ways that hurt the wing of Chinese leadership that keep NK afloat. This is why the media went nuts when Trump simply called Un's bluff. NK can only kill a lot of civilians before being completely overrun with their entire defense collapsing in under 48 hours. Everyone let NK play the game, but Trump simply called the bluff. Now NK has to take a different approach. Still, if Un actually has the power to do it, he could easily get a deal that would end the war, remove the nukes and remove American Military presence on the peninsula. There's a reason the stated geopolitical objective of the Trump Administration is the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Un has a lot of outs he can take, if he so desires to. But with really important parts to the puzzle unanswered, it's hard to take a measure of North Korean strategic thinking. | ||
KwarK
United States44353 Posts
On March 06 2018 23:22 LegalLord wrote: This is clearly and cleanly a victory for Trump, managing to do in just a year what eluded Obama for almost a decade. ? Do NK not have nukes? I'm pretty sure they have nukes. They also have better missiles than they had at any point under Obama's presidency. They've also repeatedly flouted Trump's warnings to cease testing missiles. | ||
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