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TheFish7
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United States2824 Posts
September 14 2017 23:24 GMT
#3281
It's perhaps worth mentioning that Truman fired MacArthur over precisely this disagreement in 1950.
~ ~ <°)))><~ ~ ~
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42640 Posts
September 14 2017 23:33 GMT
#3282
On September 15 2017 08:24 TheFish7 wrote:
It's perhaps worth mentioning that Truman fired MacArthur over precisely this disagreement in 1950.

In that instance MacArthur wanted to irradiate China, didn't he?
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15684 Posts
September 14 2017 23:34 GMT
#3283
I think Truman would reconsider if he could see what the situation looked like in 2017. The situation is too tragic for people to think straight. The idea of Seoul being reduced to ash is so unthinkably awful that no one considers it a real possibility.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42640 Posts
September 14 2017 23:35 GMT
#3284
On September 15 2017 08:34 Mohdoo wrote:
I think Truman would reconsider if he could see what the situation looked like in 2017. The situation is too tragic for people to think straight. The idea of Seoul being reduced to ash is so unthinkably awful that no one considers it a real possibility.

?
The thing you're describing as unthinkably awful is a smaller scale version of what you're advocating for.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
mozoku
Profile Joined September 2012
United States708 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 03:51:35
September 14 2017 23:55 GMT
#3285
I'm not sure any country is going to have unlimited tolerance for a hostile nuclear state ruled by a dictator with uncertain sanity testing ballistic missiles over one of its major population centers. The question imo is how many of these is KJU going to send over Japan, and at what point would Japan or the US decide it's no longer tolerable?

Fwiw I don't think this incident is going to lead to war, or come close.
Ghostcom
Profile Joined March 2010
Denmark4782 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 00:01:08
September 15 2017 00:00 GMT
#3286
I think it is more likely that KJU dies under mysterious circumstances in about 3-6 months than for a war to break out. But I'll admit that I may have simply read to many spy novels lately.
Mohdoo
Profile Joined August 2007
United States15684 Posts
September 15 2017 01:47 GMT
#3287
On September 15 2017 08:35 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 15 2017 08:34 Mohdoo wrote:
I think Truman would reconsider if he could see what the situation looked like in 2017. The situation is too tragic for people to think straight. The idea of Seoul being reduced to ash is so unthinkably awful that no one considers it a real possibility.

?
The thing you're describing as unthinkably awful is a smaller scale version of what you're advocating for.

I am saying that I think the end result is a same and that it's only a matter of how powerful or prepared North Korea is when it happens.
Devolved
Profile Joined April 2008
United States2753 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 02:34:37
September 15 2017 02:31 GMT
#3288
On September 15 2017 07:41 KwarK wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 15 2017 07:38 Mohdoo wrote:
On September 15 2017 07:35 micronesia wrote:
That raises a fair question. If the USA and Japan geographically switch places tonight (unrealistic, but bear with it), and tomorrow, NK launches a missile over the US, into what is obviously the open ocean, how will the USA respond?

Goodbye NK, goodbye Seoul. The US would lose an insane amount of influence if it showed as little spine as Japan.

You're posting the way a fool would post.

NK is firing missiles at the sea. The options are
1) Diplomatic response
2) Limited military response
3) Overwhelming military response

2 is escalation to the detriment of everyone. That runs the real risk of a nuclear warhead tipped missile being fired at Tokyo, Seoul being obliterated etc. There is absolutely no advantage to be won by a limited military response to NK. 3 is literal nuclear genocide, you attempt to first strike NK out of existence by killing millions of people and disabling any possible second strike. That has its own disadvantages.

That leaves 1.

NK is firing missiles at the sea for the purpose of developing a delivery system for their nukes, which are now estimated to be around 17 times the power of the Hiroshima nuke.

I think 3 is the only response, but it won't work without China. They're the only ones that have the man-power to be able to immediately occupy NK and secure the nuclear launch sites. It would have to be a cooordinated strike with the U.S. and allies striking with precision from air and sea while China invades with an overwhelming ground force. If China just sits on the sidelines the devastation to SK and Japan would be exponentially worse.

The problem is that I think China will want to carry on with endless failing diplomacy until it's too late. Hopefully the latest nuclear test from NK scared some sense into China and they will help out militarily.

Another option a U.S. Navy Seal proposed was to drop millions of smart phones into NK while positioning a satellite above them for complete internet access. It could enlighten a bunch of North Koreans, but I don't see them having a revolution due to how completely and utterly oppressed they are. They have no means to go about it, and in the end would most likely be killed or imprisoned by the regime for using the devices.
$♥$
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
September 15 2017 02:47 GMT
#3289
On September 15 2017 11:31 Devolved wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 15 2017 07:41 KwarK wrote:
On September 15 2017 07:38 Mohdoo wrote:
On September 15 2017 07:35 micronesia wrote:
That raises a fair question. If the USA and Japan geographically switch places tonight (unrealistic, but bear with it), and tomorrow, NK launches a missile over the US, into what is obviously the open ocean, how will the USA respond?

Goodbye NK, goodbye Seoul. The US would lose an insane amount of influence if it showed as little spine as Japan.

You're posting the way a fool would post.

NK is firing missiles at the sea. The options are
1) Diplomatic response
2) Limited military response
3) Overwhelming military response

2 is escalation to the detriment of everyone. That runs the real risk of a nuclear warhead tipped missile being fired at Tokyo, Seoul being obliterated etc. There is absolutely no advantage to be won by a limited military response to NK. 3 is literal nuclear genocide, you attempt to first strike NK out of existence by killing millions of people and disabling any possible second strike. That has its own disadvantages.

That leaves 1.

NK is firing missiles at the sea for the purpose of developing a delivery system for their nukes, which are now estimated to be around 17 times the power of the Hiroshima nuke.

I think 3 is the only response, but it won't work without China. They're the only ones that have the man-power to be able to immediately occupy NK and secure the nuclear launch sites. It would have to be a cooordinated strike with the U.S. and allies striking with precision from air and sea while China invades with an overwhelming ground force. If China just sits on the sidelines the devastation to SK and Japan would be exponentially worse.

The problem is that I think China will want to carry on with endless failing diplomacy until it's too late. Hopefully the latest nuclear test from NK scared some sense into China and they will help out militarily.

Another option a U.S. Navy Seal proposed was to drop millions of smart phones into NK while positioning a satellite above them for complete internet access. It could enlighten a bunch of North Koreans, but I don't see them having a revolution due to how completely and utterly oppressed they are. They have no means to go about it, and in the end would most likely be killed or imprisoned by the regime for using the devices.

If you're willing to potentially sacrifice millions of people then sure some form of overwhelming military response becomes a good idea. The fact that you and at least one other poster in here do consider that a worthwhile trade-off is kind of flabbergasting.

There is no "immediately secure launch sites" unless you're assuming some form of covert infiltration the scale of which I don't think we've seen in human history. The only possible scenario that stops NK doing whatever it can to inflict the most deaths possible in the case of an invasion relies on the assumption that they're less insane than whoever had the idea of risking such a gamble in the first place.

I don't think any strategy that relies on NK acting more humane and rational than you is a good course of action.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
evilfatsh1t
Profile Joined October 2010
Australia8647 Posts
September 15 2017 03:12 GMT
#3290
there will never be any military action from the US or its allies. north korea has to be the first country to actually attack someone before any action will be taken, and thats pretty unlikely. kim jong un would literally have to have a "fuck it. im dead anyway" moment and go yolo with his missiles
Yiome
Profile Joined February 2014
China1687 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 03:45:27
September 15 2017 03:23 GMT
#3291
The news of new missile test is reported in all major Chinese media although seems to be deliberately down played as the report is just citing Korean and Japanese report without adding any comment.

Edit: No doubt going to be regular condemnation and probably emergency UN meeting again. While being pushed into increasingly embarrassing position, I don't really see Chinese government trying anything drastically different than before.

On September 15 2017 11:31 Devolved wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 15 2017 07:41 KwarK wrote:
On September 15 2017 07:38 Mohdoo wrote:
On September 15 2017 07:35 micronesia wrote:
That raises a fair question. If the USA and Japan geographically switch places tonight (unrealistic, but bear with it), and tomorrow, NK launches a missile over the US, into what is obviously the open ocean, how will the USA respond?

Goodbye NK, goodbye Seoul. The US would lose an insane amount of influence if it showed as little spine as Japan.

You're posting the way a fool would post.

NK is firing missiles at the sea. The options are
1) Diplomatic response
2) Limited military response
3) Overwhelming military response

2 is escalation to the detriment of everyone. That runs the real risk of a nuclear warhead tipped missile being fired at Tokyo, Seoul being obliterated etc. There is absolutely no advantage to be won by a limited military response to NK. 3 is literal nuclear genocide, you attempt to first strike NK out of existence by killing millions of people and disabling any possible second strike. That has its own disadvantages.

That leaves 1.

NK is firing missiles at the sea for the purpose of developing a delivery system for their nukes, which are now estimated to be around 17 times the power of the Hiroshima nuke.

I think 3 is the only response, but it won't work without China. They're the only ones that have the man-power to be able to immediately occupy NK and secure the nuclear launch sites. It would have to be a cooordinated strike with the U.S. and allies striking with precision from air and sea while China invades with an overwhelming ground force. If China just sits on the sidelines the devastation to SK and Japan would be exponentially worse.

The problem is that I think China will want to carry on with endless failing diplomacy until it's too late. Hopefully the latest nuclear test from NK scared some sense into China and they will help out militarily.

Another option a U.S. Navy Seal proposed was to drop millions of smart phones into NK while positioning a satellite above them for complete internet access. It could enlighten a bunch of North Koreans, but I don't see them having a revolution due to how completely and utterly oppressed they are. They have no means to go about it, and in the end would most likely be killed or imprisoned by the regime for using the devices.


It may worth keep in mind Seoul is not the only city that NK's missile could reach. The entire north eastern provinces and even Beijing itself are well within range of possible retaliations. The war would potentially be devastating not only north and south Koreans, but also millions of people living close to NK border in the entire region. The risk is simply too great for China to take military action against a nuclear armed neighbor.
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
September 15 2017 03:59 GMT
#3292
So, what do people think about the rumor(/US intel analysis) that it was the Ukraine that provided NK with rocket technology that helped accelerate ICBM building?
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
xM(Z
Profile Joined November 2006
Romania5281 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 04:43:41
September 15 2017 04:37 GMT
#3293
if it was Ukraine the state, then people will say that it got what it deserved and if it was <a party> inside Ukraine(black market stuff) no one would care because shit happens.

but, if you look where the money goes ... it's into the MICs(military complexes); billions are being poured not only by SK and Japan but also by pretty much all other countries in and around conflict hot spots from Philippines(turned to the russians and/or chinese for armament) to ... Romania(half of the 2%(for NATO) allocation from PIB is being spent on acquiring US armament(Macron came here in late august to secure some arm deals too(allegedly) but found only half assed memorandums full of good intentions)).

i don't think anyone but "the people" care if there will be a war.
And my fury stands ready. I bring all your plans to nought. My bleak heart beats steady. 'Tis you whom I have sought.
Jockmcplop
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom9639 Posts
September 15 2017 07:30 GMT
#3294
On September 15 2017 12:59 LegalLord wrote:
So, what do people think about the rumor(/US intel analysis) that it was the Ukraine that provided NK with rocket technology that helped accelerate ICBM building?


Well the only evidence is circumstantial. It could be true, but it could just as easily be deliberate misinformation to cover up Russian actions.
RIP Meatloaf <3
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United Kingdom13775 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 07:41:23
September 15 2017 07:40 GMT
#3295
Sounds very much like wishful thinking, really. The facts basically come together in such a way as to say "technically we can't say it isn't Russia." Sources are neither Russian nor Russia-sympathetic.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 17:31:18
September 15 2017 17:30 GMT
#3296
On September 15 2017 16:40 LegalLord wrote:
Sounds very much like wishful thinking, really. The facts basically come together in such a way as to say "technically we can't say it isn't Russia." Sources are neither Russian nor Russia-sympathetic.

With that info I'd be more worried about the difference in ranges between what they're currently testing and what that engine was capable of in the 70s. The R-36 missle had an operational range from 10200km all the way up to 16000km for later models (~6300miles-9940miles).

The US west coast is roughly 9000km away from NK with Washington DC being 10800km away. There's still the issue that such a flight path would go over Russia and China but that's another story.

The thing is that if they can produce missiles with that engine that get a similar range as what the Russians powered with that design in the 70s then these aren't just random minor tests that could reach e.g. Japan, they're tests for an actual ICBM that can reach pretty much around the globe.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
ImFromPortugal
Profile Joined April 2010
Portugal1368 Posts
September 15 2017 21:08 GMT
#3297
On September 16 2017 02:30 r.Evo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 15 2017 16:40 LegalLord wrote:
Sounds very much like wishful thinking, really. The facts basically come together in such a way as to say "technically we can't say it isn't Russia." Sources are neither Russian nor Russia-sympathetic.

With that info I'd be more worried about the difference in ranges between what they're currently testing and what that engine was capable of in the 70s. The R-36 missle had an operational range from 10200km all the way up to 16000km for later models (~6300miles-9940miles).

The US west coast is roughly 9000km away from NK with Washington DC being 10800km away. There's still the issue that such a flight path would go over Russia and China but that's another story.

The thing is that if they can produce missiles with that engine that get a similar range as what the Russians powered with that design in the 70s then these aren't just random minor tests that could reach e.g. Japan, they're tests for an actual ICBM that can reach pretty much around the globe.


I think they are pretty much getting there
Yes im
radscorpion9
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Canada2252 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-09-15 23:36:08
September 15 2017 23:29 GMT
#3298
So I thought I would leave a comment by Noam Chomsky here about the situation. It brings to light opportunities I didn't even know existed after listening to the mainstream media on this subject, and mostly buying into the narrative that they are just a crazed, rogue state:

Ref 1
Ref 2

Well, it’s kind of interesting to look at the record. The claim is "Well, we’ve tried everything. Nothing works. Therefore, we have to use force." Is it true that nothing’s worked? I mean, there is a record, after all. And if you look at the record, it’s interesting.

1994, Clinton made—established what was called the Framework Agreement with North Korea. North Korea would terminate its efforts to develop nuclear weapons. The U.S. would reduce hostile acts. It more or less worked, and neither side lived up to it totally, but, by 2000, North Korea had not proceeded with its nuclear weapons programs. George W. Bush came in and immediately launched an assault on North Korea—you know, "axis of evil," sanctions and so on. North Korea turned to producing nuclear weapons.

In 2005, there was an agreement between North Korea and the United States, a pretty sensible agreement. North Korea agreed to terminate its development of nuclear weapons. In return, it called for a nonaggression pact. So, stop making hostile threats, relief from harsh sanctions, and provision of a system to provide North Korea with low-enriched uranium for medical and other purposes—that was the proposal. George Bush instantly tore it to shreds. Within days, the U.S. was imposing—trying to disrupt North Korean financial transactions with other countries through Macau and elsewhere. North Korea backed off, started building nuclear weapons again. I mean, maybe you can say it’s the worst regime in history, whatever you like, but they have been following a pretty rational tit-for-tat policy.

...

And they have a proposal, actually. There’s a proposal on the table. China and North Korea proposed that North Korea should terminate its further development of nuclear weapons. In return, the United States should stop carrying out threatening military maneuvers with South Korea right on its border. And the U.S. instantly rejected it. And you can’t blame that on Trump. Obama did the same thing a couple of years ago. Same offer was presented. I think it was 2015. The Obama administration instantly rejected it.

Now, maybe Americans don’t remember very well, but North Koreans have a memory of not too long ago, when North Korea was absolutely flattened, literally, by American bombing. There was—there was literally no targets left. And I really urge people who haven’t done it to read the official American military histories, the Air Quarterly Review, the military histories describing this. They describe it very vividly and accurately. They say, "There just weren’t any targets left. So what could we do?" Well, we decided to attack the dams, the huge dams. That’s a major war crime. People were hanged for it at Nuremberg...

So when nuclear-capable B-52s are flying on their border, along with other threatening military maneuvers, they’re kind of upset about it. Strange people. And they continue to develop what they see as a potential deterrent that might protect the regime from—and the country, in fact—from destruction. This has nothing at all to do with what you think about the government. So maybe it’s the worst government in human history. OK. But these are still the facts that exist.



Hopefully that injects an alternative into this conversation, other than arguments about how its inevitable that we destroy North Korea. Frankly I am shocked that I never hear this discussed on the mainstream media networks, in fact it downright angers me. How many other things are we being misled about. I swear this is going to make me read Chomsky's book "manufacturing consent" now. I don't necessarily believe its a conspiracy, but in effect it feels identical.

Also I love his comment on "strange people". It shows how insane we must look to them
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42640 Posts
September 16 2017 03:02 GMT
#3299
That entire argument somewhat depends upon the idea that North Koreans have a rational and informed view of both their own history and the geopolitical realities of the situation. There's no reason to believe they even know about US/SK military exercises. The government could tell them they're happening, or that they stopped, or that Japan still has colonial rule in SK.

NK's nuclear missile program is not a rational expression of the collective will of the North Korean people. Any attempt to paint it as such is a lie that should shame the mouth that utters it.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
FueledUpAndReadyToGo
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
Netherlands30548 Posts
September 16 2017 10:59 GMT
#3300
Building and launching nuclear missiles looks like a fun hobby to have if you look at these pictures. Definitely more fun than feeding your starving people.

[image loading]
[image loading]
[image loading]
Neosteel Enthusiast
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