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On August 23 2015 04:29 radscorpion9 wrote:
NK is just so tiresome to have to deal with. Lives may be lost in a war if NK actually follows up on its flaming rhetoric (which they never do), but at least it will bring an end to a painful dictatorship. I hope it all ends soon, for the people in both koreas.
Why would china protect an unstable dictatorship with technology from the 1950s? What possible value could they have to china. Maybe some "regional control" at best (if NK is even under their control), but I don't see how meaningful that is in the long-term scheme of things. Its not like the US is in the process of setting up missile sites aimed into China, their biggest and most important trading partner. Russia may protest a little but that's probably all it will do.
20 million starving North Koreans trying to flee into China for food. The NK/SK border is unpassable & defended. The border to the North (which is easier to access for most of the North Koreans) isn't as heavily guarded. Unless we get a 1+ month warning of an impending War, China simply doesn't have enough time to move Men & Material to the border to prevent the massive refugee/slave population from coming across the border.
So Chinese (and Russian) support is a bit like what happens to some cancer patients. You can end up in a situation where you simply let a cancerous growth slowly grow because cutting it out is going to spread it incredibly rapidly. It'll eventually cause problems, but you can kick the can down the road for a long while. That's what has been going on since the fall of Communism in 1991.
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Sooner or later, I think we will just have to have a reunification, or at least some form of restructuring of the NK government under negotiated terms. For the two countries with open diplomatic relations with NK, it has long ago become a liability. It's a country without allies that is growing increasingly desperate - sooner or later (probably later), they will have to come to some agreement on those terms. No one doubts that of course, but the interesting question is when and how it will happen.
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In my 3 years in SK, I haven't found a single person liking the idea of a reunification (not even a peaceful one under SK leadership)...
Funny how to read here every time the topic pops up, that "someone" either has to just bomb down entire NK, or just reunite, and then problems would be solved.
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50 N. Korean submarines away from baseSEOUL, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- More than 50 North Korean submarines are apparently away from their bases for operations, a sign that the North is gearing up for combat while participating in high-level talks aimed at easing tension, an official here said Sunday. "Seventy percent of North Korea's submarines left their bases, and their locations are not confirmed," the South Korean military official told reporters. The North is known to have around 70 submarines. The unpredictable communist nation has also doubled the number of its artillery troops on the border, with the command to be combat ready, according to the official. [...] Source
And something else too; the PLA is also mobilising:
PLA troops head to DPRK border as North-South tensions mountThe People's Liberation Army has sent troops to China's border with North Korea as escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula have pushed North and South to the brink of possible war. The Hong Kong-based Oriental Daily reported Saturday that internet users have been uploading photos of what appear to be PLA armored vehicles and tanks passing through the streets of Yanji, the seat of the Yanbian Korean autonomous prefecture in eastern Jilin province. The city, considered a key transport and trade hub between China and the DPRK, is less than 30 kilometers from the 1,400-kilometer border. The military deployment is believed to reflect how seriously Beijing considers the the current standoff between North and South Korea. Delegates from Pyongyang and Seoul have agreed to continue talks at 3 pm Sunday local time after the first high-level dialogue between the two sides in nearly a year was adjourned following a marathon 10-hour session. [...] On Aug. 21, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that China is following "the situation of the Korean peninsula very closely and is deeply concerned about what has happened recently." "China staunchly safeguards regional peace and stability and opposes any action that may escalate tension. We urge relevant parties to remain calm and restrained, properly deal with the current situation through contact and dialogue, and stop doing anything that may make the tension even worse," Hua said, adding that the Chinese side is "willing to work with relevant parties to jointly ensure peace and stability of the Korean peninsula." China's Global Times tabloid has tried to downplay the risk of military conflict, stating in an editorial: "The South and North are not willing to start a full-scale war, and no one is instigating a war. As a result, the new round of friction may not be explosive and can be dissolved by previous experiences. After all, escalation will do no good to either side." [...] Source( Yes, I know it's WantChinaTimes but I'll try to find more on this from more reliable outlets as they come)
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So...are we to assume that the talks are breaking down then?
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On August 23 2015 17:51 imBLIND wrote:
So...are we to assume that the talks are breaking down then?
Nothing is pointing at that.
Both sides are confirming that talks are continuing. NK is doing just NK things, trying to impress. It is exactly the same as the US/SK bombing exercises right next to the DMZ yesterday.
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On August 23 2015 17:51 imBLIND wrote:
So...are we to assume that the talks are breaking down then?
The talks seem to be going along the lines of this:
NK: Turn off the speakers
SK: Admit responsibility for mines and pay compensation
NK: No, we won't admit guilt
SK: Then we aren't turning off the speakers
* Rinse and repeat for 10 hours.
That being said we won't know for sure what the outcome will be until the media gets briefed. And that won't happen until the current talks are over, which will no doubt take 10 hours again like yesterday's one. In the mean time, everyone's getting their hardware ready in the event that the worst does happen.
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On August 23 2015 16:43 sgtnoobkilla wrote:Show nested quote +50 N. Korean submarines away from base+ Show Spoiler +SEOUL, Aug. 23 (Yonhap) -- More than 50 North Korean submarines are apparently away from their bases for operations, a sign that the North is gearing up for combat while participating in high-level talks aimed at easing tension, an official here said Sunday. "Seventy percent of North Korea's submarines left their bases, and their locations are not confirmed," the South Korean military official told reporters. The North is known to have around 70 submarines. The unpredictable communist nation has also doubled the number of its artillery troops on the border, with the command to be combat ready, according to the official. [...] Source And something else too; the PLA is also mobilising: Show nested quote +PLA troops head to DPRK border as North-South tensions mountThe People's Liberation Army has sent troops to China's border with North Korea as escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula have pushed North and South to the brink of possible war. The Hong Kong-based Oriental Daily reported Saturday that internet users have been uploading photos of what appear to be PLA armored vehicles and tanks passing through the streets of Yanji, the seat of the Yanbian Korean autonomous prefecture in eastern Jilin province. The city, considered a key transport and trade hub between China and the DPRK, is less than 30 kilometers from the 1,400-kilometer border. The military deployment is believed to reflect how seriously Beijing considers the the current standoff between North and South Korea. Delegates from Pyongyang and Seoul have agreed to continue talks at 3 pm Sunday local time after the first high-level dialogue between the two sides in nearly a year was adjourned following a marathon 10-hour session. [...] On Aug. 21, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that China is following "the situation of the Korean peninsula very closely and is deeply concerned about what has happened recently." "China staunchly safeguards regional peace and stability and opposes any action that may escalate tension. We urge relevant parties to remain calm and restrained, properly deal with the current situation through contact and dialogue, and stop doing anything that may make the tension even worse," Hua said, adding that the Chinese side is "willing to work with relevant parties to jointly ensure peace and stability of the Korean peninsula." China's Global Times tabloid has tried to downplay the risk of military conflict, stating in an editorial: "The South and North are not willing to start a full-scale war, and no one is instigating a war. As a result, the new round of friction may not be explosive and can be dissolved by previous experiences. After all, escalation will do no good to either side." [...] Source( Yes, I know it's WantChinaTimes but I'll try to find more on this from more reliable outlets as they come) https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/635096513568444416
PLA mobilizing is normal in a situation like this though. They have increased their forces near the border for years now. They are simply showing that they are ready for whatever bullshit is going to hit them.
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Sounds like a job for Dennis Rodman.
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I think this incident is unlikely to result in any clash of conventional forces. NK in the last decade has retooled its military and converted several infantry divisions into commandos and spec ops, making them good at what they do: covert and assymetrical operations. SK's artillery and air support make frontal assaults plain silly. NK's ace is to hold Seoul hostage to missiles/rockets, which dissuades SK from ever attacking. If NK went ahead and attacked, it's likely there would be a coup to replace the government and sue for peace ASAP to try to preserve DPRK survival. ROK's reluctance to reunify might accept terms in that case. But now we're pretty far into imaginary land.
[edit: but it's worth being worried about more shenanigans; NK has a long history of surprising SK with cyber attacks, spy rings, and creative operations with implausible deniability that nevertheless are denied)
"Why would china protect an unstable dictatorship with technology from the 1950s? What possible value could they have to china. Maybe some "regional control" at best (if NK is even under their control), but I don't see how meaningful that is in the long-term scheme of things. Its not like the US is in the process of setting up missile sites aimed into China, their biggest and most important trading partner. Russia may protest a little but that's probably all it will do."
The key protection to NK isn't China, it's NK's ability to delete Seoul - a throne of modern civilization - overnight.
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It's way past noon and there still hasn't been any official word on the progress of the talks:
Top Office: `Tense Negotiations` at Inter-Korean TalksAmid the ongoing inter-Korean high-level talks at the truce village, Seoul's Presidential Office said that the two sides are holding tense negotiations. Presidential Spokesman Min Myung-wook told reporters on Monday morning that "tense discussions" are under way amidst the current grave security crisis on the Korean Peninsula. While opting not to reveal any further details about the meeting which entered its third day on Monday, Min also called for caution in reporting about the close-door discussions. He said that each word from the media can affect the negotiations in real time, asking news agencies to restrain from issuing speculative reports. [...] Source
N. Korea slams S. Korea amid high-level talksSEOUL, Aug. 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korea lashed out at South Korea Monday, blaming it for high tensions on the Korean Peninsula as marathon talks aimed at defusing the situation continued for a third day. The Rodong Sinmun, the official newspaper of the North's ruling Workers' Party, claimed in an editorial that the South drove the political situation on the peninsula to dangerous levels under a deliberate plan with the U.S. to invade the communist country, according to the North's Korean Central News Agency. In a separate editorial also carried by the same paper, the North insisted that the South fabricated this month's landmine explosion and artillery exchange to prepare for war with the North. "The editorial said that the puppets' confrontational mental illness has completely reached the late stage," said the KCNA dispatch, citing the fact that South Korea has placed all government offices under emergency alert mode and banned military personnel from leaving their premises. [...] Source
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Now that's a really surprising thing for North Korea to say.
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Hm... I now checked several news sites, and in no report I found that NK is going to apologize for the landmines.
They will "regret the injury of the soldiers and the shelling of SK positions", but it is in all reports worded in a way, that they are doing that without taking the responsibility for the landmines.
Either news sites are misrepresenting it, or this is a classical solution to save face for everyone and find an agreement.
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It is in the CNN article linked above:
North Korea and South Korea have reached an agreement to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea's national security chief, Kim Kwan-jin, announced Monday.
South Korea will get the apology it demanded over recent military escalation by the North, and the South will stop broadcasting propaganda that infuriated the North.
It hasn't happened yet. They came to an agreement and the apology will come later, likely after they write it.
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On August 25 2015 05:27 Plansix wrote:It is in the CNN article linked above: Show nested quote +North Korea and South Korea have reached an agreement to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea's national security chief, Kim Kwan-jin, announced Monday.
South Korea will get the apology it demanded over recent military escalation by the North, and the South will stop broadcasting propaganda that infuriated the North. It hasn't happened yet. They came to an agreement and the apology will come later, likely after they write it.
Nothing there says, that they take responsibility for the land mines.
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On August 25 2015 05:42 mahrgell wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2015 05:27 Plansix wrote:It is in the CNN article linked above: North Korea and South Korea have reached an agreement to de-escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea's national security chief, Kim Kwan-jin, announced Monday.
South Korea will get the apology it demanded over recent military escalation by the North, and the South will stop broadcasting propaganda that infuriated the North. It hasn't happened yet. They came to an agreement and the apology will come later, likely after they write it. Nothing there says, that they take responsibility for the land mines.
If that is the apology SK is requesting, I think it is implied that it would be included as well.
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United States44013 Posts
Expressing regret (for a thing everyone knows they caused) is often the diplomatic way of saying sorry without apologizing. It's what the US did regarding Iranian Flight 655 for example.
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http://m.news.naver.com/read.nhn?mode=LSD&sid1=100&oid=003&aid=0006714194&cid=950203&ntype=COMPONENT
To summarise:
- Additional talks will be held in either Seoul or Pyongyang on a later date.
- The North will be apologising for the land mine incident.
- The propaganda speakers will be turned off beginning from noon today.
- Talks via the Red Cross will be held in early September for more family reunions.
- Promotion of non-governmental exchanges (essentially food aid) in various fields.
I think we know how this latest deal came about:
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/C0038OX.jpg)
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EPT![[image loading]](http://media.lolusercontent.com/api/embedly/1/image/resize?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapollo-na-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com%2F1440362654%2Fop.gg.png&key=f0abbd34f14549f3a15cd94dd9970851&width=150&height=150&errorUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.leagueoflegends.com%2Fapollo%2Fassets%2Fdiscussion-thumbnail-ward.png)
