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The most important politcal question for today is... Will "Here Comes Honey Boo Boo" pull higher ratings than the DNC like it did for the RNC.
Elizabeth Warren and Bill Clinton at the 10PM time slot.
Fucking epic matchup.
Bubba vs Boo Boo.
10:00 PM – 11:00 PM (LOCAL)
Remarks
Jim Sinegal
Co-Founder and Former CEO of Costco
Elizabeth Warren
Candidate for US Senate, Massachusetts
Nomination Process Set-Up
Remarks
The Honorable Antonio R. Villaraigosa
Chair of the 2012 Democratic National Convention Committee
Mayor of Los Angeles, California
President Bill Clinton
42nd President of the United States
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On September 05 2012 20:49 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 14:27 xDaunt wrote:On September 05 2012 13:11 WoodLeagueAllStar wrote:On September 05 2012 12:01 xDaunt wrote:
There is a lot of "four more years" chanting, but the democrats haven't done very much to make a case for it yet. Yes, it's early in the convention, and really, Barack is going to have make the case for himself. Still, there's some 'splaining to do. The burden is really on Obama to make a case for why Americans should vote for him again because this election is a referendum on him. I agree with you to a certain extent but if you saw Julian Castro's speech you would know what Obama's policy accomplishments are and after Michelle's then you would know what makes Barack such an awesome fellow. Most non-Right Wing type people will be very persuaded so far IMHO. I am telling you guys Democrats as the main audience are through the roof with happiness this convention and if it keeps on this way will ensure that nearly everyone who voted for Obama would do it again. No, the speeches that were given tonight were not enough. They were good speeches with good, soaring rhetoric, but that is not enough for democrats in this election. Here is the reality: nothing said at his convention will capture the hearts and minds of voters like what happened in 2008. Everyone has seen this dog and pony show before. The voters who are up for grabs want real answers to questions that they have. Obama must present a plan for moving forward that voters will accept. He also has to provide a good explanation for why he has disappointed everyone so far. I personally think that he's facing a very uphill battle. Get real. No speech, from either side is going to win this election for them. So where's Mitt Romney's plans? Has he announced the tax loopholes he's going to close to make his tax cuts (allegedly) deficit neutral?
The bias is too deep for him to see his the same exact failings for Romney/Ryan. Its "soaring rhetoric" in the dnc and all "real answers" in the RNC
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On September 05 2012 21:52 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 20:49 paralleluniverse wrote:On September 05 2012 14:27 xDaunt wrote:On September 05 2012 13:11 WoodLeagueAllStar wrote:On September 05 2012 12:01 xDaunt wrote:
There is a lot of "four more years" chanting, but the democrats haven't done very much to make a case for it yet. Yes, it's early in the convention, and really, Barack is going to have make the case for himself. Still, there's some 'splaining to do. The burden is really on Obama to make a case for why Americans should vote for him again because this election is a referendum on him. I agree with you to a certain extent but if you saw Julian Castro's speech you would know what Obama's policy accomplishments are and after Michelle's then you would know what makes Barack such an awesome fellow. Most non-Right Wing type people will be very persuaded so far IMHO. I am telling you guys Democrats as the main audience are through the roof with happiness this convention and if it keeps on this way will ensure that nearly everyone who voted for Obama would do it again. No, the speeches that were given tonight were not enough. They were good speeches with good, soaring rhetoric, but that is not enough for democrats in this election. Here is the reality: nothing said at his convention will capture the hearts and minds of voters like what happened in 2008. Everyone has seen this dog and pony show before. The voters who are up for grabs want real answers to questions that they have. Obama must present a plan for moving forward that voters will accept. He also has to provide a good explanation for why he has disappointed everyone so far. I personally think that he's facing a very uphill battle. Get real. No speech, from either side is going to win this election for them. So where's Mitt Romney's plans? Has he announced the tax loopholes he's going to close to make his tax cuts (allegedly) deficit neutral? The bias is too deep for him to see his the same exact failings for Romney/Ryan. Its "soaring rhetoric" in the dnc and all "real answers" in the RNC
No, what I am saying is that swing voters will judge Obama by a different standard than Romney. Obama has a four-year track record that will be weighed. Romney, on the other hand, just has to be a plausible alternative, assuming that the swing voters don't like what they have seen from Obama.
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On September 05 2012 22:07 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 21:52 biology]major wrote:On September 05 2012 20:49 paralleluniverse wrote:On September 05 2012 14:27 xDaunt wrote:On September 05 2012 13:11 WoodLeagueAllStar wrote:On September 05 2012 12:01 xDaunt wrote:
There is a lot of "four more years" chanting, but the democrats haven't done very much to make a case for it yet. Yes, it's early in the convention, and really, Barack is going to have make the case for himself. Still, there's some 'splaining to do. The burden is really on Obama to make a case for why Americans should vote for him again because this election is a referendum on him. I agree with you to a certain extent but if you saw Julian Castro's speech you would know what Obama's policy accomplishments are and after Michelle's then you would know what makes Barack such an awesome fellow. Most non-Right Wing type people will be very persuaded so far IMHO. I am telling you guys Democrats as the main audience are through the roof with happiness this convention and if it keeps on this way will ensure that nearly everyone who voted for Obama would do it again. No, the speeches that were given tonight were not enough. They were good speeches with good, soaring rhetoric, but that is not enough for democrats in this election. Here is the reality: nothing said at his convention will capture the hearts and minds of voters like what happened in 2008. Everyone has seen this dog and pony show before. The voters who are up for grabs want real answers to questions that they have. Obama must present a plan for moving forward that voters will accept. He also has to provide a good explanation for why he has disappointed everyone so far. I personally think that he's facing a very uphill battle. Get real. No speech, from either side is going to win this election for them. So where's Mitt Romney's plans? Has he announced the tax loopholes he's going to close to make his tax cuts (allegedly) deficit neutral? The bias is too deep for him to see his the same exact failings for Romney/Ryan. Its "soaring rhetoric" in the dnc and all "real answers" in the RNC No, what I am saying is that swing voters will judge Obama by a different standard than Romney. Obama has a four-year track record that will be weighed. Romney, on the other hand, just has to be a plausible alternative, assuming that the swing voters don't like what they have seen from Obama.
many of the swing voters acknowledge the fact that during 2000-2008 was when the depression started, with the same economic principles that want to be attempted by the right even to this day (supply side econ). So no, Romney can't just be another "plausible candidate" and just win, especially since he is an uninspiring speaker, it's hard to cover up what happened in those years despite how hard he tries. He needs to pose real answers and not just rhetoric if he wants to stand a chance.
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On September 05 2012 22:07 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 21:52 biology]major wrote:On September 05 2012 20:49 paralleluniverse wrote:On September 05 2012 14:27 xDaunt wrote:On September 05 2012 13:11 WoodLeagueAllStar wrote:On September 05 2012 12:01 xDaunt wrote:
There is a lot of "four more years" chanting, but the democrats haven't done very much to make a case for it yet. Yes, it's early in the convention, and really, Barack is going to have make the case for himself. Still, there's some 'splaining to do. The burden is really on Obama to make a case for why Americans should vote for him again because this election is a referendum on him. I agree with you to a certain extent but if you saw Julian Castro's speech you would know what Obama's policy accomplishments are and after Michelle's then you would know what makes Barack such an awesome fellow. Most non-Right Wing type people will be very persuaded so far IMHO. I am telling you guys Democrats as the main audience are through the roof with happiness this convention and if it keeps on this way will ensure that nearly everyone who voted for Obama would do it again. No, the speeches that were given tonight were not enough. They were good speeches with good, soaring rhetoric, but that is not enough for democrats in this election. Here is the reality: nothing said at his convention will capture the hearts and minds of voters like what happened in 2008. Everyone has seen this dog and pony show before. The voters who are up for grabs want real answers to questions that they have. Obama must present a plan for moving forward that voters will accept. He also has to provide a good explanation for why he has disappointed everyone so far. I personally think that he's facing a very uphill battle. Get real. No speech, from either side is going to win this election for them. So where's Mitt Romney's plans? Has he announced the tax loopholes he's going to close to make his tax cuts (allegedly) deficit neutral? The bias is too deep for him to see his the same exact failings for Romney/Ryan. Its "soaring rhetoric" in the dnc and all "real answers" in the RNC No, what I am saying is that swing voters will judge Obama by a different standard than Romney. Obama has a four-year track record that will be weighed. Romney, on the other hand, just has to be a plausible alternative, assuming that the swing voters don't like what they have seen from Obama.
Agree - I am interested however if this huge amount of flip-flopping will eventually bite Romney in his butt.
The Republican base is sold no matter what because they literally HATE Obama and feed on the inflammatory (and more than not untrue) language that is used against him as a person.
But the average Independent? Not sure about that.
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On September 05 2012 22:20 biology]major wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 22:07 xDaunt wrote:On September 05 2012 21:52 biology]major wrote:On September 05 2012 20:49 paralleluniverse wrote:On September 05 2012 14:27 xDaunt wrote:On September 05 2012 13:11 WoodLeagueAllStar wrote:On September 05 2012 12:01 xDaunt wrote:
There is a lot of "four more years" chanting, but the democrats haven't done very much to make a case for it yet. Yes, it's early in the convention, and really, Barack is going to have make the case for himself. Still, there's some 'splaining to do. The burden is really on Obama to make a case for why Americans should vote for him again because this election is a referendum on him. I agree with you to a certain extent but if you saw Julian Castro's speech you would know what Obama's policy accomplishments are and after Michelle's then you would know what makes Barack such an awesome fellow. Most non-Right Wing type people will be very persuaded so far IMHO. I am telling you guys Democrats as the main audience are through the roof with happiness this convention and if it keeps on this way will ensure that nearly everyone who voted for Obama would do it again. No, the speeches that were given tonight were not enough. They were good speeches with good, soaring rhetoric, but that is not enough for democrats in this election. Here is the reality: nothing said at his convention will capture the hearts and minds of voters like what happened in 2008. Everyone has seen this dog and pony show before. The voters who are up for grabs want real answers to questions that they have. Obama must present a plan for moving forward that voters will accept. He also has to provide a good explanation for why he has disappointed everyone so far. I personally think that he's facing a very uphill battle. Get real. No speech, from either side is going to win this election for them. So where's Mitt Romney's plans? Has he announced the tax loopholes he's going to close to make his tax cuts (allegedly) deficit neutral? The bias is too deep for him to see his the same exact failings for Romney/Ryan. Its "soaring rhetoric" in the dnc and all "real answers" in the RNC No, what I am saying is that swing voters will judge Obama by a different standard than Romney. Obama has a four-year track record that will be weighed. Romney, on the other hand, just has to be a plausible alternative, assuming that the swing voters don't like what they have seen from Obama. many of the swing voters acknowledge the fact that during 2000-2008 was when the depression started, with the same economic principles that want to be attempted by the right even to this day (supply side econ). So no, Romney can't just be another "plausible candidate" and just win, especially since he is an uninspiring speaker, it's hard to cover up what happened in those years despite how hard he tries. He needs to pose real answers and not just rhetoric if he wants to stand a chance.
To an extent, you are right. However, as evidenced by the electoral beatings that democrats have been taking every year after 2008, the luster of blame Bush has worn off to a point where voters are not afraid to vote republican.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
incidentally romney is pretty much as well placed as anyone to know exactly which loopholes to close. will he close them? dohoho
the republicans are totally blindsided by this tea party thing to notice that it is still a minority current in the nation at large. such a movement needs charisma to further prop along the misguided but apparently very american notion that everything is the government's fault and the big ole wall street people are regular joes out to make a living. someone like reagan mebbe. there's no reagan around here.
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On September 05 2012 22:41 oneofthem wrote:
incidentally romney is pretty much as well placed as anyone to know exactly which loopholes to close. will he close them? dohoho
In case you missed the TPC report, no amount of loophole closing would be enough to make his tax cuts deficit neutral, that's why his plan has been called mathematically impossible
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
On September 05 2012 22:45 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 22:41 oneofthem wrote:
incidentally romney is pretty much as well placed as anyone to know exactly which loopholes to close. will he close them? dohoho In case you missed the TPC report, no amount of loophole closing would be enough to make his tax cuts deficit neutral, that's why his plan has been called mathematically impossible
well i am only making a snide remark so no need for that logic thing.
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On September 05 2012 15:16 Velr wrote:
Wasn't Romneys rise in score after the Republican congress like the absolutely worst in history? Afaik the candidates peak after this week.
If history tells anything, Romney will melt.
His bounce was very weak, however that could be because most people have already made up their minds this election earlier than usual. If Obama's post-convention bounce is also weak, then it's a wash.
(edit)
Nate Silver has a good piece on Romney's weak bounce, but adds in that the strength of Obama's post-convention bounce will be equally important.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/sept-4-the-simple-case-for-why-obama-is-the-favorite/
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On September 05 2012 15:45 Risen wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 15:36 dvorakftw wrote:On September 05 2012 15:16 Velr wrote:
Wasn't Romneys rise in score after the Republican congress like the absolutely worst in history? Nope.If history tells anything, Romney will melt. Unemployment over 8%, incumbents below 50%, there's plenty of history that says Obama is toast.And it's quite likely almost every poll is using a flawed model. Source for the bold, please? I believe you're right, but you enjoy making lots of claims and not sourcing them. Makes you hard to listen to.
I've heard that bolded claim enough times via analysts I have confidence in to think there's at least some wisdom to it. More unemployment is always bad for incumbents, and this country has gotten used to 4-6% being the norm (and it wasn't that long ago that anything over 5% was considered too high by many).
It's also true that the public tends to judge the handling of the economy based on how things have moved over the previous year. So Obama may also be judged on how the economy is now relative to fall 2011.
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United States6277 Posts
On September 05 2012 22:45 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 22:41 oneofthem wrote:
incidentally romney is pretty much as well placed as anyone to know exactly which loopholes to close. will he close them? dohoho In case you missed the TPC report, no amount of loophole closing would be enough to make his tax cuts deficit neutral, that's why his plan has been called mathematically impossible
Is that entirely correct? The TPC report assumed a lot of big 'loopholes' were off the table.
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United States6277 Posts
The World Economic forum (WEF) released its Global Competitiveness Report today. The US fell (again) from 5th to 7th place. According to CNBC it is the 4th year of decline.
Here's what the WEF says about the US in the Country Highlights page:
The United States continues the decline that began a few years ago, falling two more positions to take 7th place this year. Although many structural features continue to make its economy extremely productive, a number of escalating and unaddressed weaknesses have lowered the US ranking in recent years. US companies are highly sophisticated and innovative, supported by an excellent university system that collaborates admirably with the business sector in R&D. Combined with flexible labor markets and the scale opportunities afforded by the sheer size of its domestic economy—the largest in the world by far—these qualities continue to make the United States very competitive.
On the other hand, some weaknesses in particular areas have deepened since past assessments. The business community continues to be critical toward public and private institutions (41st). In particular, its trust in politicians is not strong (54th), perhaps not surprising in light of recent political disputes that threaten to push the country back into recession through automatic spending cuts. Business leaders also remain concerned about the government’s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector (59th), and consider that the government spends its resources relatively wastefully (76th). A lack of macroeconomic stability continues to be the country’s greatest area of weakness (111th, down from 90th last year). On a more positive note, measures of financial market development continue to indicate a recovery, improving from 31st two years ago to 16th this year in that pillar, thanks to the rapid intervention that forced the deleveraging of the banking system from its toxic assets following the financial crisis.
Source
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On September 06 2012 00:49 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 22:45 paralleluniverse wrote:On September 05 2012 22:41 oneofthem wrote:
incidentally romney is pretty much as well placed as anyone to know exactly which loopholes to close. will he close them? dohoho In case you missed the TPC report, no amount of loophole closing would be enough to make his tax cuts deficit neutral, that's why his plan has been called mathematically impossible Is that entirely correct? The TPC report assumed a lot of big 'loopholes' were off the table.
Read it yourself (page 3 to 5): http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/1001628-Base-Broadening-Tax-Reform.pdf
Yes, some loopholes are excluded (2nd dot point), but the report notes that's because Romney has said he wouldn't close those loopholes, or because they are highly impractical to close (3rd dot point).
Reading the list of assumptions, it appears that the TPC has bend over backwards to make his promises add up.
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On September 06 2012 00:57 JonnyBNoHo wrote:The World Economic forum (WEF) released its Global Competitiveness Report today. The US fell (again) from 5th to 7th place. According to CNBC it is the 4th year of decline. Here's what the WEF says about the US in the Country Highlights page: Show nested quote +The United States continues the decline that began a few years ago, falling two more positions to take 7th place this year. Although many structural features continue to make its economy extremely productive, a number of escalating and unaddressed weaknesses have lowered the US ranking in recent years. US companies are highly sophisticated and innovative, supported by an excellent university system that collaborates admirably with the business sector in R&D. Combined with flexible labor markets and the scale opportunities afforded by the sheer size of its domestic economy—the largest in the world by far—these qualities continue to make the United States very competitive.
On the other hand, some weaknesses in particular areas have deepened since past assessments. The business community continues to be critical toward public and private institutions (41st). In particular, its trust in politicians is not strong (54th), perhaps not surprising in light of recent political disputes that threaten to push the country back into recession through automatic spending cuts. Business leaders also remain concerned about the government’s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector (59th), and consider that the government spends its resources relatively wastefully (76th). A lack of macroeconomic stability continues to be the country’s greatest area of weakness (111th, down from 90th last year). On a more positive note, measures of financial market development continue to indicate a recovery, improving from 31st two years ago to 16th this year in that pillar, thanks to the rapid intervention that forced the deleveraging of the banking system from its toxic assets following the financial crisis. Source
Business leaders also remain concerned about the government’s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector (59th)
What does this mean? I thought Americans wanted the government to butt off, not have "arms-length" relations?
the government spends its resources relatively wastefully (76th)
I'm not surprised that people think that, although I'd be more convinced if there were objective studies about this. I think this is a survey asking for people's opinions? I haven't read any objective study on government waste, although what I would expect to see in such a report is that waste is relatively small compared to the large size of the government.
A lack of macroeconomic stability continues to be the country’s greatest area of weakness (111th, down from 90th last year).
Surely they mean the dysfunctional congress? The macroeconomic situation is stable. Unemployment is stably high, growth is stably below trend. There isn't much volatility in economic indicators. So I assume this is talking about the debt ceiling debacle and the fiscal cliff. But the fiscal cliff would make the point above better, right?
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United States6277 Posts
On September 06 2012 01:14 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 00:57 JonnyBNoHo wrote:The World Economic forum (WEF) released its Global Competitiveness Report today. The US fell (again) from 5th to 7th place. According to CNBC it is the 4th year of decline. Here's what the WEF says about the US in the Country Highlights page: The United States continues the decline that began a few years ago, falling two more positions to take 7th place this year. Although many structural features continue to make its economy extremely productive, a number of escalating and unaddressed weaknesses have lowered the US ranking in recent years. US companies are highly sophisticated and innovative, supported by an excellent university system that collaborates admirably with the business sector in R&D. Combined with flexible labor markets and the scale opportunities afforded by the sheer size of its domestic economy—the largest in the world by far—these qualities continue to make the United States very competitive.
On the other hand, some weaknesses in particular areas have deepened since past assessments. The business community continues to be critical toward public and private institutions (41st). In particular, its trust in politicians is not strong (54th), perhaps not surprising in light of recent political disputes that threaten to push the country back into recession through automatic spending cuts. Business leaders also remain concerned about the government’s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector (59th), and consider that the government spends its resources relatively wastefully (76th). A lack of macroeconomic stability continues to be the country’s greatest area of weakness (111th, down from 90th last year). On a more positive note, measures of financial market development continue to indicate a recovery, improving from 31st two years ago to 16th this year in that pillar, thanks to the rapid intervention that forced the deleveraging of the banking system from its toxic assets following the financial crisis. Source Show nested quote +Business leaders also remain concerned about the government’s ability to maintain arms-length relationships with the private sector (59th) What does this mean? I thought Americans wanted the government to butt off, not have "arms-length" relations?
From Wikipedia: The arm's length principle (ALP) is the condition or the fact that the parties to a transaction are independent and on an equal footing. Such a transaction is known as an "arm's-length transaction". It is used specifically in contract law to arrange an equitable agreement that will stand up to legal scrutiny, even though the parties may have shared interests (e.g., employer-employee) or are too closely related to be seen as completely independent (e.g., the parties have familial ties).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arm's_length_principle
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United States6277 Posts
On September 06 2012 01:02 paralleluniverse wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2012 00:49 JonnyBNoHo wrote:On September 05 2012 22:45 paralleluniverse wrote:On September 05 2012 22:41 oneofthem wrote:
incidentally romney is pretty much as well placed as anyone to know exactly which loopholes to close. will he close them? dohoho In case you missed the TPC report, no amount of loophole closing would be enough to make his tax cuts deficit neutral, that's why his plan has been called mathematically impossible Is that entirely correct? The TPC report assumed a lot of big 'loopholes' were off the table. Read it yourself (page 3 to 5): http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/UploadedPDF/1001628-Base-Broadening-Tax-Reform.pdfYes, some loopholes are excluded (2nd dot point), but the report notes that's because Romney has said he wouldn't close those loopholes, or because they are highly impractical to close (3rd dot point). Reading the list of assumptions, it appears that the TPC has bend over backwards to make his promises add up.
I have some issues with their point 2... some assumptions I'd disagree with (ex. muni bond interest).
I'm not sure point 1 makes sense. My understanding is that most tax expenditures are on the commerce side. I don't see why getting rid of some tax expenditure there couldn't be used to pay for personal income reductions.
Regardless, "no amount of loophole closing would be enough to make his tax cuts deficit neutral" is an exaggeration.
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On September 05 2012 20:41 paralleluniverse wrote:
Blame Bush,
You guys on the left really, really, really, really need to get past this.
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On September 06 2012 02:21 dvorakftw wrote:You guys on the left really, really, really, really need to get past this.
I'll get past this when it stops being true.
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EPT
