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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On December 21 2012 03:26 Focuspants wrote:
I personally dont think there is a place for firearms in a civilized society, other than in the hands of law enforcement and the military
I don't think a civilized society has a need for law enforcement. Civilized people solve issues voluntarily. Giving one entity a monopoly on violence results in... well, take a look around.
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On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:
Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets.
Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves.
US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’s
Western Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.
awesome_graph.jpg
awesome_blog.com
I'm not too sure about TL's policy on this topic so I won't report it, but this should be warned imho. This is pure misinformation in a thread that really doesn't need it.
On topic, I wish all firearms where banned. Only reasons people are allowed to own gun in my country are hunting and sport. Hunting is probably the most retarded hobby I've ever been able to witness, and you don't need lethal weapon to prove that you're the best at aiming. I mean, non-lethal weapons are more than enough... You could even shoot with lasers for that purpose.
And to all the people who are gonna say that I don't understand the 2nd amendment/guns are so very useful for defense in a country with a history of violence/god entitled them to own weapons, I'll just say that I'm only talking about France here.
Also, I think those statistics are more reliable : http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/statistics/Homicide/Homicides_by_firearms.xls (might have been posted countless times in this thread. Not gonna check)
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At first I thought he was getting the graphs from here because this popped up first after googling and the style of the graphs matches. But no that was wrong and his graphs really look fabricated.
And before anyone is going to discuss the paper I linked, it's pretty useless, they don't even try to normalize the different definitions of violent crime. I didn't read it in detail but checking the numbers for Germany showed some discrepancies, according to police statistics there were roughly 210000 violent crimes in Germany in 2008, that doesn't match the roughly 9 crimes per 1000 inhabitants from the paper (if I'm not stupid it's about 3 times higher in the paper).
I actually would be interested in a well done comparison of violent crime in different countries. With regards to these statistics I can really only urge everyone to be careful when drawing conclusions. For example, as far as I know, there was an increase in crime throughout western Europe after the fall of the USSR and this surely has little to do with gun availability.
[EDIT]: Oh I got an old version of the paper, sorry about that Zaqwe but read what I wrote about Germany's numbers.
[EDIT2]: Do they even reference their numbers?! If somebody knows where they got the numbers for Germany tell me.
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On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/o0VDN.jpg) http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional.
They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself:
Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”
Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".
http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf
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On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf
Interesting how you completely skipped the original claim that homicide rates are higher in Europe than in US. Looking at UNODC data on violent crime they seem to disagree with the study you cite.
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On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf
From the paper...
Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)”
We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period
In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes.
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On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Show nested quote +Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” Show nested quote +We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes.
Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold:
Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.
The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it.
EDIT: Furthermore the paper is about trends over time. Europeans have drastically increased violent crime, over a period of time when they implemented strict gun control, pro-criminal policies. They have taken a soft approach to crime (give people plenty of welfare, add restrictions to law abiding citizens, etc.) which clearly is not working. Indeed, the European approach causes increased crime.
Meanwhile America has cracked down on crime with minimum mandatory sentences and three strikes laws, all while gun ownership increased. Despite the crying over America's prison population and scary guns their approach has been working.
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On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Show nested quote +Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” Show nested quote +We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes.
You're focusing on some very small portion of the article, and in the case of property crime something that has no importance in the discussion here. What we are discussing here is violent crime and gun control, so property crime rates are unimportant, and the graphs in discussion at the moment with the UK ignored because of inconsistencies in recording practices still shows an upward trend in recent violent crime in Europe in contrast to the downward trend in the United States.
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On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it.
How, exactly, does "accounting for" the differences work? How exactly does it change the second excerpt, where they admit they're missing entire countries?
You can't just "account" for those differences with the data set they show in the paper. Missing data and incomparable data gives flawed results.
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On December 21 2012 08:13 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. How, exactly, does "accounting for" the differences work? How exactly does it change the second excerpt, where they admit they're missing entire countries? You can't just "account" for those differences with the data set they show in the paper. Missing data and incomparable data gives flawed results.
By that logic no scientific paper in the history of mankind would be valid, as they all need controls of some sort.
You are grasping at straws.
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On December 21 2012 08:19 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:13 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. How, exactly, does "accounting for" the differences work? How exactly does it change the second excerpt, where they admit they're missing entire countries? You can't just "account" for those differences with the data set they show in the paper. Missing data and incomparable data gives flawed results. By that logic no scientific paper in the history of mankind would be valid, as they all need controls of some sort. You are grasping at straws.
No, I'm saying that if you're going to use incomparable data, you better document how you made the data work together. Transparency.
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On December 21 2012 08:24 JingleHell wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:19 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 08:13 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. How, exactly, does "accounting for" the differences work? How exactly does it change the second excerpt, where they admit they're missing entire countries? You can't just "account" for those differences with the data set they show in the paper. Missing data and incomparable data gives flawed results. By that logic no scientific paper in the history of mankind would be valid, as they all need controls of some sort. You are grasping at straws. No, I'm saying that if you're going to use incomparable data, you better document how you made the data work together. Transparency.
We collected data on crime and the explanatory variables of interest for seven European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK) and the US from 1970 to 2008. Our main measure of criminal activity is the total number of offenses reported to the police per 1,000 inhabitants. All explanatory variables are also normalize by the size of the population. ... if one wants to work with a homogeneous measure of crime rates across these different countries, then the total number of crimes (of any kind) recorded by the police is what should be used: this measure of crime minimizes measurement error in a cross-country setting. We will nonetheless, in addition, report results for both property and violent crime separately.
Doesn't seem like anything is being hidden to me...
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On December 21 2012 08:31 iplayBANJO wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:24 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 08:19 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 08:13 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. How, exactly, does "accounting for" the differences work? How exactly does it change the second excerpt, where they admit they're missing entire countries? You can't just "account" for those differences with the data set they show in the paper. Missing data and incomparable data gives flawed results. By that logic no scientific paper in the history of mankind would be valid, as they all need controls of some sort. You are grasping at straws. No, I'm saying that if you're going to use incomparable data, you better document how you made the data work together. Transparency. Show nested quote +We collected data on crime and the explanatory variables of interest for seven European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK) and the US from 1970 to 2008. Our main measure of criminal activity is the total number of offenses reported to the police per 1,000 inhabitants. All explanatory variables are also normalize by the size of the population. ... if one wants to work with a homogeneous measure of crime rates across these different countries, then the total number of crimes (of any kind) recorded by the police is what should be used: this measure of crime minimizes measurement error in a cross-country setting. We will nonetheless, in addition, report results for both property and violent crime separately. Doesn't seem like anything is being hidden to me...
So can you tell me from where they got the data for Germany? Like I said after looking up our violent crime numbers there seems to be a big divergence. How can you write a paper and not cite your sources?
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On December 21 2012 08:31 iplayBANJO wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:24 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 08:19 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 08:13 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. How, exactly, does "accounting for" the differences work? How exactly does it change the second excerpt, where they admit they're missing entire countries? You can't just "account" for those differences with the data set they show in the paper. Missing data and incomparable data gives flawed results. By that logic no scientific paper in the history of mankind would be valid, as they all need controls of some sort. You are grasping at straws. No, I'm saying that if you're going to use incomparable data, you better document how you made the data work together. Transparency. Show nested quote +We collected data on crime and the explanatory variables of interest for seven European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK) and the US from 1970 to 2008. Our main measure of criminal activity is the total number of offenses reported to the police per 1,000 inhabitants. All explanatory variables are also normalize by the size of the population. ... if one wants to work with a homogeneous measure of crime rates across these different countries, then the total number of crimes (of any kind) recorded by the police is what should be used: this measure of crime minimizes measurement error in a cross-country setting. We will nonetheless, in addition, report results for both property and violent crime separately. Doesn't seem like anything is being hidden to me...
That's not transparency. Explain to me how that "accounts" for the wildly different data? Hey, guess what, oranges have more vitamin C than apples do!
You're comparing different subsets of data.
Like, if you actually refuse to understand why it matters, I can't help you.
If, for example, a state made all airsoft and paintball guns require a permit, and another state only required a permit to purchase fully automatic weapons, would you gain anything relevant by comparing the totals of sales that required a permit?
No. Because one state, you're looking at hand grenades, and in the other, you're looking at kid's toys.
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United States43661 Posts
On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. EDIT: Furthermore the paper is about trends over time. Europeans have drastically increased violent crime, over a period of time when they implemented strict gun control, pro-criminal policies. They have taken a soft approach to crime (give people plenty of welfare, add restrictions to law abiding citizens, etc.) which clearly is not working. Indeed, the European approach causes increased crime. Meanwhile America has cracked down on crime with minimum mandatory sentences and three strikes laws, all while gun ownership increased. Despite the crying over America's prison population and scary guns their approach has been working.
Mandatory minimums are working?!?!?
America has the highest incarceration rate in the world, 50% more than Russia, the second highest G8 nation, and over 200% more than the next. Working at what exactly? It's clearly not working as a deterrent, the laws are in place and you keep on locking people up. How can a situation where you deprive more of your citizens of liberty than any other nation in the world possibly be described as working?
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The last 5 pages of that report cite sources. You can dig through them all if you want, I have no real interest to.
I feel that I should mention though that it seems the conclusion of the paper is that high incarceration rates and economic stability are the primary causes of reduced crime, immigration and unemployment cause measurable increases in crime, and legalized abortion doesn't seem to reduce crime by reducing the population statistically most likely to commit crime. While the paper was interesting, it doesn't seem overly applicable to the debates happening in this thread; other than to show evidence in the discrepancy between crime in Europe and the US. I don't know much about gun laws in Europe, but I assume that they are diverse enough for this to be too broad to show any effect gun regulation or gun related culture has on crime, violent or otherwise.
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On December 21 2012 08:24 JingleHell wrote:
No, I'm saying that if you're going to use incomparable data, you better document how you made the data work together. Transparency.
The author identified and controlled for these differences. You have siezed on the portion of the paper mentioning such differences, which they controlled for, and are using it to claim the paper is invalid.
On the contrary, the fact they clearly identified such issues themselves, and properly controlled for them, shows the impeccable nature of their research.
The mental gymnastics you are going through to justify ignoring this paper are painful to see.
On December 21 2012 08:44 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. EDIT: Furthermore the paper is about trends over time. Europeans have drastically increased violent crime, over a period of time when they implemented strict gun control, pro-criminal policies. They have taken a soft approach to crime (give people plenty of welfare, add restrictions to law abiding citizens, etc.) which clearly is not working. Indeed, the European approach causes increased crime. Meanwhile America has cracked down on crime with minimum mandatory sentences and three strikes laws, all while gun ownership increased. Despite the crying over America's prison population and scary guns their approach has been working. Mandatory minimums are working?!?!? America has the highest incarceration rate in the world, 50% more than Russia, the second highest G8 nation, and over 200% more than the next. Working at what exactly? It's clearly not working as a deterrent, the laws are in place and you keep on locking people up. How can a situation where you deprive more of your citizens of liberty than any other nation in the world possibly be described as working?
Working at reducing crime.
The goal of crime fighting is to reduce crime, right? Not to make criminals' lives comfortable.
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EDIT: Posts merged. Sorry for double post.
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On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. EDIT: Furthermore the paper is about trends over time. Europeans have drastically increased violent crime, over a period of time when they implemented strict gun control, pro-criminal policies. They have taken a soft approach to crime (give people plenty of welfare, add restrictions to law abiding citizens, etc.) which clearly is not working. Indeed, the European approach causes increased crime. Meanwhile America has cracked down on crime with minimum mandatory sentences and three strikes laws, all while gun ownership increased. Despite the crying over America's prison population and scary guns their approach has been working.
Looking at crime rates here : UNODC site it is pretty clear there is something fishy going on. I checked only few countries and few types of crime and it is pretty clear EU rates are well below US ones. It also nicely shows how basically anything but homicides can be counted to be imprecise comparison as looking at UK and Sweden it is pretty clear their numbers use different criteria than the rest.
As for trends in most countries that I checked trends are decreasing. So your conclusions seem to be based on attempt to prove your ideology, not really anything else. That is pretty clear from conclusions like :
when they implemented strict gun control, pro-criminal policies. They have taken a soft approach to crime (give people plenty of welfare, add restrictions to law abiding citizens, etc.) which clearly is not working
Those are not in the least supported by the study you mentioned even if we were to take it at face value. They conclude that causes are changes in population and that incarceration works. None of your ideological conclusions.
As for the only thing that study supports in your statements : incarceration. I personally think incarceration is underused in EU, but US is not the way to go. They have incarceration for non-sensical crimes. They incarcerate mentally ill people, because their mental health system is dysfunctional. The way to improve the system is to use incarceration properly by increasing it in specific instances of serious crimes. But I acknowledge that this is my personal opinion and I can easily change my mind if presented evidence.
US approach is not working. In many areas it is pretty dysfunctional. Their rates are dropping, but so are EU rates, but without turning into prison nations.
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On December 21 2012 08:56 Zaqwe wrote:Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:24 JingleHell wrote:
No, I'm saying that if you're going to use incomparable data, you better document how you made the data work together. Transparency.
The author identified and controlled for these differences. You have siezed on the portion of the paper mentioning such differences, which they controlled for, and are using it to claim the paper is invalid. On the contrary, the fact they clearly identified such issues themselves, and properly controlled for them, shows the impeccable nature of their research. The mental gymnastics you are going through to justify ignoring this paper are painful to see. Show nested quote +On December 21 2012 08:44 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 08:07 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 07:51 JingleHell wrote:On December 21 2012 07:35 Zaqwe wrote:On December 21 2012 06:40 KwarK wrote:On December 21 2012 06:28 Zaqwe wrote:Its very easy to see when you look at statistics that the policies of European nations are not at all beneficial to their citizens. They seem to be deliberately intended to increase crime. Perhaps that is their goal, as increased crime justifies increased government power and government budgets. Sadly so many Europeans seem to have Stockholm syndrome and happily go along with whatever policy their government institutions demand, regardless of the cost to themselves. US’ Violent Crime Rates Compared To Western Europe’sWestern Europe’s violent crime rate is 265% of the United States, while the murder rate is 43% higher than the US. And Europe’s violent crime and homicide rates are rising again, while the United States rates continue to fall. The following graphic gives an overview of the situation.http://extranosalley.com/?p=30730 Those graphs are fictional. They do not appear to be fictional. Here is the paper they are sourced from, feel free to read it yourself: Crime in Europe and the US: Dissecting the “Reversal of Misfortunes”Contrary to common perceptions, today both property and violent crimes (with the exception of homicides) are more widespread in Europe than in the US, while the opposite was true thirty years ago. We label this fact as the "reversal of misfortunes".http://www2.dse.unibo.it/zanella/papers/crime-EP.pdf From the paper... Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” We classify property and violent crimes based on the definitions of the national police or the
national statistical office. Typically, "property crime" includes: any kind of theft, larceny, breaking in,
burglary, and fraud. "Violent crime" includes: homicide, serious or aggravated assault, robbery and
sexual offenses. An aggregate property crime measure is not available for Austria, while it is available
only after 1989 for Spain and after 1986 for Germany. Moreover, we were unable to find violent
crime data for Austria and Spain over the entire 1970-2008 period In other words, it's like graphing shoe sales in America against shoe sales in Ethiopia, and determining that Ethiopia, due to shoes per capita, is a better place to sell shoes. Clever editing. Thought nobody would notice? Here is the excerpt, with the part you excluded in bold: Note to Figure 3. The jump in the UK violent crime rate after 1997 reflects a discontinuity in definitions and
recording practices. The Home Office (2008) notices that “the number of violence against the person offences
recorded by the police increased by 118 per cent as a result of the 1998 changes [...]. Much of this increase resulted
from a widening of the offence coverage to include assaults with little or no physical injury, and offences of
harassment (again with no injury)” (p. 60). In the inferential part of the paper this will be controlled for by year
fixed effects. The dynamics after the discontinuity, though is genuine.The statistics are comparable as long as they account for such differences, which they did. Try reading the paper instead of struggling to find some justification for ignoring it. EDIT: Furthermore the paper is about trends over time. Europeans have drastically increased violent crime, over a period of time when they implemented strict gun control, pro-criminal policies. They have taken a soft approach to crime (give people plenty of welfare, add restrictions to law abiding citizens, etc.) which clearly is not working. Indeed, the European approach causes increased crime. Meanwhile America has cracked down on crime with minimum mandatory sentences and three strikes laws, all while gun ownership increased. Despite the crying over America's prison population and scary guns their approach has been working. Mandatory minimums are working?!?!? America has the highest incarceration rate in the world, 50% more than Russia, the second highest G8 nation, and over 200% more than the next. Working at what exactly? It's clearly not working as a deterrent, the laws are in place and you keep on locking people up. How can a situation where you deprive more of your citizens of liberty than any other nation in the world possibly be described as working? Working at reducing crime. The goal of crime fighting is to reduce crime, right? Not to make criminals' lives comfortable.
There is absolutely no evidence that mandatory minimums are behind the reduced rates.
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EPT
