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On October 03 2011 04:22 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Well Rick Perry will pretty much be out of the race if the media picks up the name of his hunting camp, and I'm sure they will as Herman Cain just attacked him for it.
For those wondering, here's the article
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/rick-perry-deflects-scrutiny-over-texas-hunting-camp-is-blasted-by-herman-cain/2011/10/02/gIQAOrqMGL_story.html
It doesn't really seem like it will stick, but who knows? Maybe Cain is trying to make up some ground after some of his bad remarks about blacks being brainwashed and the Muslim stuff. I don't know. As far as Perry, it might blow over, or more people might come out and dispute his official story and make trouble for him. But for all the problems I have with him (invading Mexico?) he has never struck me as racist.
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On October 02 2011 16:08 sandg wrote:
This is what happens when voting is voluntary.
Compulsory voting isn't so great either. A significant percentage are donkey votes and protest votes get things pretty crazy as shown with the 2010 Australian election.
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Anyone else see the Bachmann campaign ad when viewing this thread? Kinda ironic. This isn't exactly her target audience.
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Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... )
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On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... )
Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012.
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On October 04 2011 00:20 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... ) Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012.
With the current nominees? Doubtful.
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On October 04 2011 00:22 Adila wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 00:20 xDaunt wrote:On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... ) Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012. With the current nominees? Doubtful.
A 2x4 with a face on it would beat Obama given how unpopular he is.
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Bush was more unpopular than Obama near the end of his first term and he still won his second election.
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On October 04 2011 00:22 Adila wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 00:20 xDaunt wrote:On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... ) Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012. With the current nominees? Doubtful.
People don't vote so much for a candidate, as they vote against a candidate. That's kind of the point of the "lesser of two evils." After 2 terms of Bush, the democrats could have put up a turd sandwich and still won easily. It helped that Obama was "fresh" and eloquent, but he didn't even need to be.
That's how things work in the United States.  We vote in the Republicans until we realize they are all crooks and we hate Republicans. So we throw them out of office and elect Democrats, until we realize they are all crooks and we hate Democrats. So we throw them out of office and elect Republicans.
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On October 04 2011 00:23 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 00:22 Adila wrote:On October 04 2011 00:20 xDaunt wrote:On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... ) Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012. With the current nominees? Doubtful. A 2x4 with a face on it would beat Obama given how unpopular he is.
Plank 2012.
In all seriousness, I think Romney, Huntsman or Paul would have a chance against Obama (and a pretty good one at that I have to admit.) However, any of the other candidates would be a long shot, even with Obama's current popularity.
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On October 04 2011 00:42 Akaleth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 00:23 xDaunt wrote:On October 04 2011 00:22 Adila wrote:On October 04 2011 00:20 xDaunt wrote:On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... ) Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012. With the current nominees? Doubtful. A 2x4 with a face on it would beat Obama given how unpopular he is. Plank 2012. In all seriousness, I think Romney, Huntsman or Paul would have a chance against Obama (and a pretty good one at that I have to admit.) However, any of the other candidates would be a long shot, even with Obama's current popularity.
Romney would win fairly handily unless he pisses off the conservative base.
Paul would win because he would steal a lot of Obama's base.
I don't think Huntman would win because republican voters would stay home (I think this is a moot point anyway because Huntsman isn't getting the nomination).
Cain would win fairly handily. He's too likable to lose, unless he has some some serious baggage that has yet to be dredged up.
Bachmann probably would not win because she's too tarnished.
Santorum could win, but there's no prayer of him getting the nomination.
Gingrich might win, but he has a lot of personal baggage.
Perry might not win. Four weeks ago, I'd have thought that Perry would win. Now, I'm not so sure. He has a lot of baggage and his personal presentation has been pretty bad.
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I'm a socialist Canadian evildoer, but I'd vote Huntsman over Obama.
Too bad Huntsman is too decent a human being to ever win the nomination.
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On October 04 2011 00:50 xDaunt wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 00:42 Akaleth wrote:On October 04 2011 00:23 xDaunt wrote:On October 04 2011 00:22 Adila wrote:On October 04 2011 00:20 xDaunt wrote:On October 03 2011 22:40 Szordrin wrote:
Im wondering, does any of these candidates have a real chance to beat Obama in the main election?
As far as i know, you want your presidential candidates (in a two party system) to be in the middle, rather than on the far right side of things no?
I mean Obama is currently doing this (thats why he gets so much hate from all the disappointed rather left wing voters). The GOP candidates on the other hand try to appeal the Tea Party and be as much on the far right as possible without being outright racist.
How do they plan to win the main elections with such a candidate? Do they just switch back their entire positions or whats the gameplan here?
Because I'm reading a lot about Obama being in the negatives, he will have it hard to get reelected etc. But it doesn't make too much sense me...
PS: sry for my rather bad english... ) Unless Obama has a stunning reversal of fortune, the republican nominee will win in 2012. With the current nominees? Doubtful. A 2x4 with a face on it would beat Obama given how unpopular he is. Plank 2012. In all seriousness, I think Romney, Huntsman or Paul would have a chance against Obama (and a pretty good one at that I have to admit.) However, any of the other candidates would be a long shot, even with Obama's current popularity. Romney would win fairly handily unless he pisses off the conservative base. Paul would win because he would steal a lot of Obama's base. I don't think Huntman would win because republican voters would stay home (I think this is a moot point anyway because Huntsman isn't getting the nomination). Cain would win fairly handily. He's too likable to lose, unless he has some some serious baggage that has yet to be dredged up. Bachmann probably would not win because she's too tarnished. Santorum could win, but there's no prayer of him getting the nomination. Gingrich might win, but he has a lot of personal baggage. Perry might not win. Four weeks ago, I'd have thought that Perry would win. Now, I'm not so sure. He has a lot of baggage and his personal presentation has been pretty bad.
If you have such certainty you should go to intrade and place some bets. Currently the odds are 47% Obama re-election.
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The reason Obama doesn't look so bad in the polls right now is because the Republicans haven't chosen a candidate. The polls say Obama would beat any Republican candidate head to head. But the polls also say Obama would lose against "The GOP nomination." Once the Republicans pick a candidate they will ALL get behind that candidate - they do that far better than the Democrats. Remember when Kerry was picked and there was a popular website called "JohnKerryIsADouchBagButWeHaveToVoteForHimAnyway.com" or something along those lines? Also look at how often the far left is criticizing Obama for being too centrist/caving to Republicans. Republicans almost never do this. A lot of Republicans hated John Mccain for being too left, did you even hear the slightest peep out of them after he won the nomination? Nope.
Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell. He got elected the first time because everyone wanted to make history with the first minority President. Voter turnout won't be nearly as high for him, especially since he hasn't delivered on the Change he promised.
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Actually, there was a lot of grumbling on the republican side after McCain got the nomination. A lot of conservatives openly debated either starting a new party or voting for the democratic nominee just to teach the republican establishment a lesson.
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On October 04 2011 01:10 BlackJack wrote:
The reason Obama doesn't look so bad in the polls right now is because the Republicans haven't chosen a candidate. The polls say Obama would beat any Republican candidate head to head. But the polls also say Obama would lose against "The GOP nomination." Once the Republicans pick a candidate they will ALL get behind that candidate - they do that far better than the Democrats. Remember when Kerry was picked and there was a popular website called "JohnKerryIsADouchBagButWeHaveToVoteForHimAnyway.com" or something along those lines? Also look at how often the far left is criticizing Obama for being too centrist/caving to Republicans. Republicans almost never do this. A lot of Republicans hated John Mccain for being too left, did you even hear the slightest peep out of them after he won the nomination? Nope.
Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell. He got elected the first time because everyone wanted to make history with the first minority President. Voter turnout won't be nearly as high for him, especially since he hasn't delivered on the Change he promised.
Nah, if you had a fiscal conservative+social liberal+non-Christian (e.g. Romney (ish)) take the nomination, their support would dwindle quickly. Republicans aren't special. They're just as stubborn on their social issues as the rest of us.
Trying to get into the mind of your opponent, without giving them due respect is a recipe for failure, my friend. There's a huge Democrat base that is more than happy to give Obama a second chance, because they understand that A) The Republicans have been cockblocking him at every turn, often with completely fabricated issues (death panels, debt-ceiling debate etc.) and/or B) They understand that he's inherited a huge mess of a presidency, left behind by his predecessor, and he's done the best he could with what he had. All he's got to do is, you know, spend a buttload of money on campaigning and convince people that the Republican candidates are a bunch of lunatics, which isn't a hard sell to someone on the fence.
Point is, the Republicans can't just sit back and expect an automatic win.
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On October 04 2011 01:14 Bibdy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 04 2011 01:10 BlackJack wrote:
The reason Obama doesn't look so bad in the polls right now is because the Republicans haven't chosen a candidate. The polls say Obama would beat any Republican candidate head to head. But the polls also say Obama would lose against "The GOP nomination." Once the Republicans pick a candidate they will ALL get behind that candidate - they do that far better than the Democrats. Remember when Kerry was picked and there was a popular website called "JohnKerryIsADouchBagButWeHaveToVoteForHimAnyway.com" or something along those lines? Also look at how often the far left is criticizing Obama for being too centrist/caving to Republicans. Republicans almost never do this. A lot of Republicans hated John Mccain for being too left, did you even hear the slightest peep out of them after he won the nomination? Nope.
Obama doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell. He got elected the first time because everyone wanted to make history with the first minority President. Voter turnout won't be nearly as high for him, especially since he hasn't delivered on the Change he promised. Nah, if you had a fiscal conservative+social liberal+non-Christian (e.g. Romney (ish)) take the nomination, their support would dwindle quickly. Republicans aren't special. They're just as stubborn on their social issues as the rest of us. Trying to get into the mind of your opponent, without giving them due respect is a recipe for failure, my friend. There's a huge Democrat base that is more than happy to give Obama a second chance, because they understand that A) The Republicans have been cockblocking him at every turn, often with completely fabricated issues (death panels, debt-ceiling debate etc.) and/or B) They understand that he's inherited a huge mess of a presidency, left behind by his predecessor, and he's done the best he could with what he had. All he's got to do is, you know, spend a buttload of money on campaigning and convince people that the Republican candidates are a bunch of lunatics, which isn't a hard sell to someone on the fence. Point is, the Republicans can't just sit back and expect an automatic win.
Voter turnout among youths and minorities is not very good, and these two groups feel the most let down by Obama. 2008 had record turnout for these groups and I doubt it will be repeated.
Romney is non-Christian but that's a larger concern in the bible belt and the bible belt is voting Republican regardless of anything. Also I'm pretty sure people would rather vote for a Mormon than an atheist/muslim/antichrist that they believe Obama is.
Pretty sure whoever gets nominated will try to make Marco Rubio their VP which should win over a lot of the tea party and also help win Florida. The fact is the election is mostly decided by Florida/Ohio and a couple other states, so while the evangelicals are the loudest, you don't really have to do much to carry Texas or other southern states, just like Obama doesn't have to do much to carry California.
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I know that Rubio is the dream VP pick of every candidate -- especially for someone like Romney who needs to boost his tea party cred -- but I doubt that Rubio would accept the offer. He hasn't even been in the senate for a year yet, and he'd do better staying on his own political track.
I also find all the Rubio-love talk kinda amusing. During his senate run, the republican party did everything that they could do to bury him in favor of Charlie Crist before Rubio won the primary.
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Even from an outsider's point of view, all of the candidates look deeply unappealing. I think I would like Bachmann or Paul to win the primaries, just since they're almost totally unelectable. 2016 is going to be a far more important election, just because it will truly determine whether this ridiculous strain of partisanism will die off or get stronger and make the system actually ungovernable.
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On October 04 2011 02:05 Iskusstvo wrote:
Even from an outsider's point of view, all of the candidates look deeply unappealing. I think I would like Bachmann or Paul to win the primaries, just since they're almost totally unelectable. 2016 is going to be a far more important election, just because it will truly determine whether this ridiculous strain of partisanism will die off or get stronger and make the system actually ungovernable.
Actually, 2012 will likely be the most important election in generations. Whoever wins is likely going to get the credit for reversing the decline of the American economy (presuming that there is a recovery), and that person's party will get FDR-like coattails to walk on for many elections to come.
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EPT
